Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable
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Anonymous
Smart if you like anti democratic mafia bosses who rig elections, squash dissent and pursue race based hyper nationalism … Hungary’s authoritarian leader is no gift to US conservatives Published in: The Hill Lydia Gall Senior Researcher, Eastern Europe and Western Balkans Hungary President Viktor Orban arrives at the NATO Heads of State summit in Madrid, June 30, 2022. Click to expand Image Hungary President Viktor Orban arrives at the NATO Heads of State summit in Madrid, June 30, 2022. © 2022 Bertrand Guay, Pool via AP, File Europe is my territory for Human Rights Watch and I rarely take note of political events thousands of miles away in Texas. But the news that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas this week was chilling to me — and should be to anyone who cares about basic human rights. From my vantage point in Hungary, where I’ve lived since 2007, I can see a familiar pattern of anti-democratic rhetoric and actions emerging in Texas and the United States more generally. I know where it could end up. Orbán may not be a household name in Texas but he has become the darling of certain political circles in the United States. Orbán first served as prime minister from 1998 to 2002. After losing his re-election bid, he capitalized on increasing public dissatisfaction and distrust of politicians to then sweep the 2010 election. He had a two-thirds majority in parliament, enabling him to change the constitution several times to carry out his full vision for Hungary. Since 2012, I have documented for Human Rights Watch this realization of Orbán’s vision — and the draconian policies and practices he has employed to this end. Orbán hijacked public institutions, attacked the independence of courts, and left almost no independent media standing. He has criminalized basic democratic activities by civil society organizations, attacked the rights of LGBT and transgender people, and banned same-sex unions. He encouraged ruthless and rights-abusing treatment of migrants and refugees and the criminalization of those who help them. His alleged “pro-family” policies actually reinforce traditional gender roles and undermine equality between men and women, reducing women to their reproductive function. Orbán’s previously subtle adherence to the racist “great replacement” theory, which contends that Western countries’ elites are trying to replace white people with nonwhite people for political gain, has reached a shocking fever pitch, risking emboldening white supremacists. Orbán also has tinkered with the electoral laws to the point that his party needs less than a simple majority of the vote for him to rule with a majority in parliament, and thereby to continue gutting Hungary’s democracy. He has done all of this while using nationalist rhetoric to cement himself and his party as the defenders of the Hungarian, conservative Christian way of life. In late July, he caused an international uproar when he delivered a stunningly racist speech against migration to ethnic Hungarians in Romania, claiming he wants to prevent Hungary from becoming a “mixed-race” country. Doubling down on white nationalism, Orbán claimed that countries where Europeans live alongside non-Europeans “are no longer nations: they are nothing more than a conglomeration of peoples.” In the same speech, he made a veiled reference to Nazi gas chambers as a joke. One of Orbán’s advisers resigned shortly after the bigotry-riddled speech, and Romania’s foreign minister and the International Auschwitz Committee of Holocaust survivors condemned his remarks. But Orbán’s headlining appearance in Dallas, at one of the most influential gatherings in the U.S. of conservatives and Republican Party leaders, apparently will go on. So, why would they want to hear from this wanna-be autocrat? What lessons could he offer for a movement that historically has supposedly stood in opposition to authoritarian rule? Given rhetoric coming out of some sectors of the conservative movement in the United States, it’s little wonder there may be an attraction to Orbán. But attraction for Hungary’s premier may have detrimental implications for that movement in the U.S.; they would be associating with a leader who has spent more than a decade chipping away at core democratic values and peddling racist rhetoric. Instead of welcoming Orbán, conservative leaders at the Dallas conference (and beyond) should make clear that Orbán’s values — fixing elections, crushing dissent, and pursuing a nationalism rooted in racism — are harmful and not welcome in the United States. |
Anonymous
Russia has already lost the war as the Biden Administration has made clear to the world -- they're just struggling to come to terms to admit it. The walls are closing in on Vlad. |
Anonymous
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https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/its-time-to-end-magical-thinking-about-russias-defeat-f6d0b8de?mod=wknd_pos1
The WSJ urges the end of the magical-thinking of the Ukrainian shills. |
Anonymous
People with basic commitment to western democratic values urge the end of distraction caused by Putin training and arming Hamas to take world eyes and pressure off his illegal and immoral war in Ukraine . Two years into his illegal invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is still far from achieving his original goal of extinguishing Ukrainian independence and subjugating the entire country. But this creep orchestrated the horror show in Gaza precisely to buy himself more time, which he has done. The West needs to remain united and committed to helping Ukraine to defeat Russia. He is obviously preparing for a long war: Russia’s 2024 budget includes an unprecedented increase in military spending (double the figure for 2023)z He is undeterred by the needs for cuts in social spending, healthcare, and education. Putin is gloating about the recent shift in international attention toward the Israel-Hamas conflict. It is not magical thinking but maintaining an adult attention span and not letting this monster get away with mass murder, illegal country annexation and endless crimes against humanity. |
Anonymous
Yes yes! So glad there is another voice besides Fox News and Murdoch. He is a Russian asset. |
Anonymous
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Hey OP
I know you’ve moved on to the next conflict but just wanted to remind you of your original post. No the Ukraine win wasn’t inevitable. They were always going to lose. Now that Washington is done with Ukraine and has shifted its love of war to Israel, they have delivered the message to Zelensky that it’s over. |
Anonymous
| Where will Zelensky exile? Seems to me it’s Miami or Tel Aviv. |
Anonymous
Dp Hey Dickhead! Guess what? The maga republicans took leadership of the house and guess what? Ukraine is STILL GONNA GET ARMS AND MONEY. The American people have short attention spans, but our defense contractors do not. Sorry to hear about the crumbling Russian economy and demographics. Just kidding. Not sorry at all. I just love living in a first world nation that has billions of loose change in the couch cushions to help Ukraine slowly crush what is left of Russia. Russia shouldn’t have started this, because they won’t be ending it on their own terms. I’m not usually a Hawk, but sticking it to Putin puts a smile on my face every morning. Xo. |
Anonymous
Training and arming Hamas for Israeli- Hamas conflict was Putin’s sadistic plan to buy more time and he has done that. His fake concern for the poor innocent Palestinian civilians is nauseating. But most of the West stays united in wanting to help Ukraine defeat this terrorist imperialist. Neither Washington nor the West is done with Ukraine. We know they are not perfect because none of us humans are. But they did not deserve to be brutally invaded and having their country turned violently upside down. They must be exhausted but they bravely continue to fight for their freedom. Putin is clearly in it for the long haul and has doubled his military budget at the expense of meeting his people’s health, education and transport needs. Russian public opinion has already turned against the war despite the powerful misinformation machine Putin orchestrates. He truly is a monster leading war crimes and illegal annexations in many countries now. The West will stay united and see this to the end because it is in our collective interest to not let this anti democratic monster cast authoritarian, anti-democratic darkness over more of Europe. |
Anonymous
Hmm. Think so? You think that Russia is capable of a military win in Ukraine? "50,000 roubles ($550) a month her husband Sergei earns" "Before you could buy food worth a thousand roubles for three or four days easily, but now when you go to the shop a thousand roubles is nothing - you can only buy food for everyday needs, like milk, yogurt, bread and that's it - your thousand has flown away." "Baby milk has quadrupled in price over the five years since her first child, she said, while the price of prams (aka baby stroller) have tripled to 60,000 roubles. Prices for disposable nappies and baby food have at least doubled" "at least 15.7 million people live below the poverty line of 14,375 roubles ($157) per month" https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/wartime-russia-soaring-prices-bite-election-looms-2023-11-16/ If it's true, that Russia is militarily superior and has infinite resources (as the Kremlin would have you believe), then why is this necessary? "Russian civilians who join an 'elite' unit will receive 1M rubles, or around $11K" https://www.foxnews.com/world/putin-offers-staggering-sum-for-new-recruits-as-russia-desperate-to-bolster-shriveling-forces I also believe that's why Putin has cracked down on any news source publishing information about Russia. To control YOUR opinion about how "invincible" Russia is. "Russia on Friday added The Moscow Times, an online publication covering Russia, to its list of foreign agents" "Russia accused the publication of having "carried out actions aimed at forming a negative public image" and of featuring material written by other foreign agents." https://www.barrons.com/news/russia-brands-moscow-times-a-foreign-agent-af0250b2 But I think it will be impossible to hide the state Russia is in after Putin's re-election. That's why I believe that even if the War in Ukraine ended tomorrow, Russia will start on an 18-month trajectory (beginning in January) from which I'm not sure how or even if they will recover? But that's not the real concern here. My fear is that Putin could start a "hot war" against the West (as early as April) as a distraction to their problems at home, the same way Hitler started WWII to revitalize the post-WWI German economy. After watching Russia for many years, I do believe Putin is capable of starting, and prepared to start, a war with the West if the Russian population turns on the Russian government. Why do I believe this? The Russian playbook is to publicly warn, talk about it, talk about it more, desensitize their own population to the idea, stamp out any resistance to the idea, test the waters for weakness, then attack. As far as I can recall right now, Putin has (eventually) carried out every major public threat he has ever made, except two (the veiled assassination threat of Biden and using nuclear weapons in a war with the West). I think this is why it's openly discussed on Russian National TV. Vitaly Tretyakov, Dean of Moscow State University's School of Television: "There is such a thing as a self-fulfilling prophecy. If we try to convince everyone that nuclear war is unavoidable..' Solovyov: <interrupting> "It is unavoidable." Tretyakov: "..it can actually happen." Solovyov: "It will happen. No doubt about it." Tretyakov: "We should work to make sure it doesn't happen!" Solovyov: "Why?" Tretyakov: <avoiding eye contact> "why?" Solovyov: "Nuclear war is the means for something. It's strange to fight over the means." https://www.newsweek.com/nuclear-war-unavoidable-putin-ally-solovyov-1844665 It is also true that the Kremlin consistently modernized both its submarine and strategic rocket forces these past two years. "Russia is reportedly readying a devastating 20,000mph hypersonic Avangard missile that the country’s leader Vladimir Putin has warned can’t be stopped by any defense system. It’s understood the nuclear-capable weapon, previously described as a “meteorite” by Putin, can be launched from outside the earth's atmosphere and strike multiple targets anywhere in the world in under 30 minutes." https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1835960/Russia-meteorite-missile-avangard-nuclear-weapon So the (literally) existential question is, will Russia collapse before this happens? You should hope so. |
Anonymous
Wow. Sobering: Do you think Putin is criminally insane and beyond reason or is there any hope he and the Kremlin can be reasoned with? It is highly unlikely that Russia will collapse before April next year or for long time after that given their oil and gas supplies. As if climate changed induced natural disasters were not enough to worry about |
Anonymous
You seem to believe this is a matter of rational thought? It's difficult to explain, but let me try walking through different perspectives. From what I've read and what he says and how he acts, I believe Putin is a devout student of former Soviet Union strategy and dogma. He's keen on WWII history. He's followed Hitler and Stalin's playbooks fairly consistently - whether by choice, or through the people he's surrounded himself with. As a former KGB agent, his former Soviet Union training included all the covert tradecraft that implies. The jackals at his feet command vast power within Russia. Their authority is absolute. Imagine you're one of Putin's senior officials. What happens when the orders sent out don't get accomplished? Is it treason? Is it incompetence? Is it accidental? It doesn't matter. The wagons will move on. They will be replaced. And replaced. And replaced. The security apparatus keeps files on everyone and everything considered to be an enemy; until orders are given. "N: I am writing it down. The inner side. Ok… Do you remember the underwear’s colour?" "K: Blue. But I am not sure.." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/21/what-does-alexei-navalny-say-the-duped-russian-spy-admitted-about-his-poisoning Now, imagine you're a mid-or-lower level Russian commissar or military officer. You know the penalty for failure. The saying goes, "I know you won't let us down." What if you know you'll fail? What if you know you can't succeed? What do you do? How long can you live in fear of that knock on the door or walk in the woods? https://t.me/freeyakutiafoundation/388 http://sozd.duma.gov.ru/bill/482168-8 This moment, Putin probably still very calculating. As Putin ages, there is a growing danger he will lose his rationality and faculties. His health has been questioned. The jackals smell the blood but are smart enough to wait and keep silent. Now pretend you're Putin. Prigozhin proved you're vulnerable in a very public way. You wonder, can your body doubles keep everyone fooled? How can we test what people will do if they think you're dead? Who do you fear more - the people who hate you, or the people who are closest to you? March 18, 2022: "Russian President Vladimir Putin replaced about 1,000 personal staff members in February over fears that they would poison him, a report said. Those sacked included bodyguards, cooks, launderers, and secretaries, " https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-putin-replaced-staffers-over-fears-poison-him-report-2022-3#:~:text=Russian%20President%20Vladimir%20Putin%20replaced,citing%20a%20Russian%20government%20source. The economy is failing. The war is failing. Your health is failing. There is nowhere to run to. Travel will run the risk of war crime charges. Your island is shrinking of people you trust or can rely upon. Too many young Russians are never coming home again. The day of reckoning will come once the war is over and people realize things won't go back to the way they were. Your grip on power is loosening. You're Hitler in 1939. Knowing this, what would YOU do? |
Anonymous
| Aren’t we just hoping he eats his gun, same as Hitler? |
Anonymous
| Maybe it’s time to stop cornering him so that he doesn’t resort to desperate measures |
Anonymous
No one is cornering him. He can pull out of Ukraine at any time. |