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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Hey OP

I know you’ve moved on to the next conflict but just wanted to remind you of your original post. No the Ukraine win wasn’t inevitable. They were always going to lose. Now that Washington is done with Ukraine and has shifted its love of war to Israel, they have delivered the message to Zelensky that it’s over.[/quote]

Hmm.  Think so?  You think that Russia is capable of a military win in Ukraine?

"50,000 roubles ($550) a month her husband Sergei earns"
"Before you could buy food worth a thousand roubles for three or four days easily, but now when you go to the shop a thousand roubles is nothing - you can only buy food for everyday needs, like milk, yogurt, bread and that's it - your thousand has flown away."
"Baby milk has quadrupled in price over the five years since her first child, she said, while the price of prams (aka baby stroller) have tripled to 60,000 roubles. Prices for disposable nappies and baby food have at least doubled"
"at least 15.7 million people live below the poverty line of 14,375 roubles ($157) per month"
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/wartime-russia-soaring-prices-bite-election-looms-2023-11-16/

If it's true, that Russia is militarily superior and has infinite resources (as the Kremlin would have you believe), then why is this necessary?

"Russian civilians who join an 'elite' unit will receive 1M rubles, or around $11K"
https://www.foxnews.com/world/putin-offers-staggering-sum-for-new-recruits-as-russia-desperate-to-bolster-shriveling-forces

I also believe that's why Putin has cracked down on any news source publishing information about Russia.  To control YOUR opinion about how "invincible" Russia is.

"Russia on Friday added The Moscow Times, an online publication covering Russia, to its list of foreign agents"
"Russia accused the publication of having "carried out actions aimed at forming a negative public image" and of featuring material written by other foreign agents."
https://www.barrons.com/news/russia-brands-moscow-times-a-foreign-agent-af0250b2

But I think it will be impossible to hide the state Russia is in after Putin's re-election.  That's why I believe that even if the War in Ukraine ended tomorrow, Russia will start on an 18-month trajectory (beginning in January) from which I'm not sure how or even if they will recover?

But that's not the real concern here.

My fear is that Putin could start a "hot war" against the West (as early as April) as a distraction to their problems at home, the same way Hitler started WWII to revitalize the post-WWI German economy.  After watching Russia for many years, I do believe Putin is capable of starting, and prepared to start, a war with the West if the Russian population turns on the Russian government.  Why do I believe this?  The Russian playbook is to publicly warn, talk about it, talk about it more, desensitize their own population to the idea, stamp out any resistance to the idea, test the waters for weakness, then attack.  As far as I can recall right now, Putin has (eventually) carried out every major public threat he has ever made, except two (the veiled assassination threat of Biden and using nuclear weapons in a war with the West).  I think this is why it's openly discussed on Russian National TV.

Vitaly Tretyakov, Dean of Moscow State University's School of Television:  "There is such a thing as a self-fulfilling prophecy.  If we try to convince everyone that nuclear war is unavoidable..'
Solovyov: <interrupting> "It is unavoidable."
Tretyakov: "..it can actually happen."
Solovyov: "It will happen.  No doubt about it."
Tretyakov: "We should work to make sure it doesn't happen!"
Solovyov: "Why?"
Tretyakov: <avoiding eye contact> "why?"
Solovyov: "Nuclear war is the means for something.  It's strange to fight over the means."
https://www.newsweek.com/nuclear-war-unavoidable-putin-ally-solovyov-1844665

It is also true that the Kremlin consistently modernized both its submarine and strategic rocket forces these past two years.

"Russia is reportedly readying a devastating 20,000mph hypersonic Avangard missile that the country’s leader Vladimir Putin has warned can’t be stopped by any defense system.  It’s understood the nuclear-capable weapon, previously described as a “meteorite” by Putin, can be launched from outside the earth's atmosphere and strike multiple targets anywhere in the world in under 30 minutes."
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1835960/Russia-meteorite-missile-avangard-nuclear-weapon

So the (literally) existential question is, will Russia collapse before this happens?

You should hope so.[/quote]

Wow. Sobering:

Do you think Putin is criminally insane and beyond reason or is there any hope he and the Kremlin can be reasoned with?

It is highly unlikely that Russia will collapse before April next year or for long time after that given their oil and gas supplies.

As if climate changed induced natural disasters were not enough to worry about

[/quote]

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