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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Hey OP

I know you’ve moved on to the next conflict but just wanted to remind you of your original post. No the Ukraine win wasn’t inevitable. They were always going to lose. Now that Washington is done with Ukraine and has shifted its love of war to Israel, they have delivered the message to Zelensky that it’s over.[/quote]

Hmm.  Think so?  You think that Russia is capable of a military win in Ukraine?

"50,000 roubles ($550) a month her husband Sergei earns"
"Before you could buy food worth a thousand roubles for three or four days easily, but now when you go to the shop a thousand roubles is nothing - you can only buy food for everyday needs, like milk, yogurt, bread and that's it - your thousand has flown away."
"Baby milk has quadrupled in price over the five years since her first child, she said, while the price of prams (aka baby stroller) have tripled to 60,000 roubles. Prices for disposable nappies and baby food have at least doubled"
"at least 15.7 million people live below the poverty line of 14,375 roubles ($157) per month"
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/wartime-russia-soaring-prices-bite-election-looms-2023-11-16/

If it's true, that Russia is militarily superior and has infinite resources (as the Kremlin would have you believe), then why is this necessary?

"Russian civilians who join an 'elite' unit will receive 1M rubles, or around $11K"
https://www.foxnews.com/world/putin-offers-staggering-sum-for-new-recruits-as-russia-desperate-to-bolster-shriveling-forces

I also believe that's why Putin has cracked down on any news source publishing information about Russia.  To control YOUR opinion about how "invincible" Russia is.

"Russia on Friday added The Moscow Times, an online publication covering Russia, to its list of foreign agents"
"Russia accused the publication of having "carried out actions aimed at forming a negative public image" and of featuring material written by other foreign agents."
https://www.barrons.com/news/russia-brands-moscow-times-a-foreign-agent-af0250b2

But I think it will be impossible to hide the state Russia is in after Putin's re-election.  That's why I believe that even if the War in Ukraine ended tomorrow, Russia will start on an 18-month trajectory (beginning in January) from which I'm not sure how or even if they will recover?

But that's not the real concern here.

My fear is that Putin could start a "hot war" against the West (as early as April) as a distraction to their problems at home, the same way Hitler started WWII to revitalize the post-WWI German economy.  After watching Russia for many years, I do believe Putin is capable of starting, and prepared to start, a war with the West if the Russian population turns on the Russian government.  Why do I believe this?  The Russian playbook is to publicly warn, talk about it, talk about it more, desensitize their own population to the idea, stamp out any resistance to the idea, test the waters for weakness, then attack.  As far as I can recall right now, Putin has (eventually) carried out every major public threat he has ever made, except two (the veiled assassination threat of Biden and using nuclear weapons in a war with the West).  I think this is why it's openly discussed on Russian National TV.

Vitaly Tretyakov, Dean of Moscow State University's School of Television:  "There is such a thing as a self-fulfilling prophecy.  If we try to convince everyone that nuclear war is unavoidable..'
Solovyov: <interrupting> "It is unavoidable."
Tretyakov: "..it can actually happen."
Solovyov: "It will happen.  No doubt about it."
Tretyakov: "We should work to make sure it doesn't happen!"
Solovyov: "Why?"
Tretyakov: <avoiding eye contact> "why?"
Solovyov: "Nuclear war is the means for something.  It's strange to fight over the means."
https://www.newsweek.com/nuclear-war-unavoidable-putin-ally-solovyov-1844665

It is also true that the Kremlin consistently modernized both its submarine and strategic rocket forces these past two years.

"Russia is reportedly readying a devastating 20,000mph hypersonic Avangard missile that the country’s leader Vladimir Putin has warned can’t be stopped by any defense system.  It’s understood the nuclear-capable weapon, previously described as a “meteorite” by Putin, can be launched from outside the earth's atmosphere and strike multiple targets anywhere in the world in under 30 minutes."
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1835960/Russia-meteorite-missile-avangard-nuclear-weapon

So the (literally) existential question is, will Russia collapse before this happens?

You should hope so.[/quote]

Wow. Sobering:

Do you think Putin is criminally insane and beyond reason or is there any hope he and the Kremlin can be reasoned with?

It is highly unlikely that Russia will collapse before April next year or for long time after that given their oil and gas supplies.

As if climate changed induced natural disasters were not enough to worry about

[/quote]

You seem to believe this is a matter of rational thought?  It's difficult to explain, but let me try walking through different perspectives.

From what I've read and what he says and how he acts, I believe Putin is a devout student of former Soviet Union strategy and dogma.  He's keen on WWII history.  He's followed Hitler and Stalin's playbooks fairly consistently - whether by choice, or through the people he's surrounded himself with.  As a former KGB agent, his former Soviet Union training included all the covert tradecraft that implies.  The jackals at his feet command vast power within Russia.  Their authority is absolute.

Imagine you're one of Putin's senior officials.  What happens when the orders sent out don't get accomplished?  Is it treason?  Is it incompetence?  Is it accidental?  It doesn't matter.  The wagons will move on.  They will be replaced.  And replaced.  And replaced.  The security apparatus keeps files on everyone and everything considered to be an enemy; until orders are given.

"N: I am writing it down. The inner side. Ok… Do you remember the underwear’s colour?"
"K: Blue. But I am not sure.."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/21/what-does-alexei-navalny-say-the-duped-russian-spy-admitted-about-his-poisoning

Now, imagine you're a mid-or-lower level Russian commissar or military officer.  You know the penalty for failure.  The saying goes, "I know you won't let us down."  What if you know you'll fail?  What if you know you can't succeed?  What do you do?  How long can you live in fear of that knock on the door or walk in the woods?

https://t.me/freeyakutiafoundation/388
http://sozd.duma.gov.ru/bill/482168-8

This moment, Putin probably still very calculating.  As Putin ages, there is a growing danger he will lose his rationality and faculties.  His health has been questioned.  The jackals smell the blood but are smart enough to wait and keep silent.

Now pretend you're Putin.  Prigozhin proved you're vulnerable in a very public way.  You wonder, can your body doubles keep everyone fooled?  How can we test what people will do if they think you're dead?  Who do you fear more - the people who hate you, or the people who are closest to you?

March 18, 2022: "Russian President Vladimir Putin replaced about 1,000 personal staff members in February over fears that they would poison him, a report said.  Those sacked included bodyguards, cooks, launderers, and secretaries, "
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-putin-replaced-staffers-over-fears-poison-him-report-2022-3#:~:text=Russian%20President%20Vladimir%20Putin%20replaced,citing%20a%20Russian%20government%20source.

The economy is failing.  The war is failing.  Your health is failing.  There is nowhere to run to. Travel will run the risk of war crime charges.   Your island is shrinking of people you trust or can rely upon.  Too many young Russians are never coming home again.   The day of reckoning will come once the war is over and people realize things won't go back to the way they were.  Your grip on power is loosening.

You're Hitler in 1939.  Knowing this, what would YOU do?[/quote]

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