Harris beating Trump in Iowa

Anonymous
Anonymous
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Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/


I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.
More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll. The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins. In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.


But this incumbent is a rubber stamp for the dysfunctional do-nothing GOP House, in a district that is only R+3, is mostly urban (to the extent that Davenport and Iowa City are urban), and may prefer a representative who believes that the government should function competently. This seat had flipped back and forth in four consecutive elections before 2022 when it was redrawn.
Flipping is plausible. D+16 is not.


You might think so, but there could be a big shift among women in these cities. There appears to be a snowball effect among older women and college women, as there was in other cities and suburbs in 2018 and 2020. The release of the poll may actually contribute to it.


The assumption that other women feel the same way you do is very 2016.


I’m telling you what happens in realignment elections. This is a realignment election. A bunch of “safe” House districts shifted 20%+ in 1994 and 2006 and 2010 and 2018. It’s more common in mid-terms but Trump is gifting Democrats a potential landslide of women voters this year.


There are too many women who feel that there are issues more important than abortion.

Honestly, if you truly believe in the influence of women voters, which you should, then you would recognize that they have already expressed their views. We are not where we are today solely because of male voters.


I don’t know ANY


Because you surely are familiar with the political views of women across the nation. This idea is exactly why you’re wrong.


Sure lots of issues, but none as big as reproductive rights.


I would bet the economy drives more votes than reproductive rights.


+1 and immigration


Anyone invested in the market is much better off now than under Trump. If that isn’t you, you might want to reconsider your investment strategies.


Adjust for inflation and interest rates sweetheart.
Anonymous
Kansas poll has Trump up by only 5, 48-43. In 2020, Trump beat Biden by 14.

Similar to the shift in the Selzer poll in Iowa.
Anonymous
Kamala hasn't set foot in Iowa since 2020.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Kamala hasn't set foot in Iowa since 2020.


As a candidate? Maybe.

As VP? Incorrect.
Anonymous
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Anonymous wrote:
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Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/


I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.
More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll. The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins. In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.


But this incumbent is a rubber stamp for the dysfunctional do-nothing GOP House, in a district that is only R+3, is mostly urban (to the extent that Davenport and Iowa City are urban), and may prefer a representative who believes that the government should function competently. This seat had flipped back and forth in four consecutive elections before 2022 when it was redrawn.
Flipping is plausible. D+16 is not.


You might think so, but there could be a big shift among women in these cities. There appears to be a snowball effect among older women and college women, as there was in other cities and suburbs in 2018 and 2020. The release of the poll may actually contribute to it.


The assumption that other women feel the same way you do is very 2016.


I’m telling you what happens in realignment elections. This is a realignment election. A bunch of “safe” House districts shifted 20%+ in 1994 and 2006 and 2010 and 2018. It’s more common in mid-terms but Trump is gifting Democrats a potential landslide of women voters this year.


There are too many women who feel that there are issues more important than abortion.

Honestly, if you truly believe in the influence of women voters, which you should, then you would recognize that they have already expressed their views. We are not where we are today solely because of male voters.


I don’t know ANY


Because you surely are familiar with the political views of women across the nation. This idea is exactly why you’re wrong.


Sure lots of issues, but none as big as reproductive rights.


I would bet the economy drives more votes than reproductive rights.


+1 and immigration


Anyone invested in the market is much better off now than under Trump. If that isn’t you, you might want to reconsider your investment strategies.


Adjust for inflation and interest rates sweetheart.


Adjust for interest rates? Why?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/


I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.
More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll. The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins. In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.


But this incumbent is a rubber stamp for the dysfunctional do-nothing GOP House, in a district that is only R+3, is mostly urban (to the extent that Davenport and Iowa City are urban), and may prefer a representative who believes that the government should function competently. This seat had flipped back and forth in four consecutive elections before 2022 when it was redrawn.
Flipping is plausible. D+16 is not.


You might think so, but there could be a big shift among women in these cities. There appears to be a snowball effect among older women and college women, as there was in other cities and suburbs in 2018 and 2020. The release of the poll may actually contribute to it.


The assumption that other women feel the same way you do is very 2016.


I’m telling you what happens in realignment elections. This is a realignment election. A bunch of “safe” House districts shifted 20%+ in 1994 and 2006 and 2010 and 2018. It’s more common in mid-terms but Trump is gifting Democrats a potential landslide of women voters this year.


There are too many women who feel that there are issues more important than abortion.

Honestly, if you truly believe in the influence of women voters, which you should, then you would recognize that they have already expressed their views. We are not where we are today solely because of male voters.


I don’t know ANY


Because you surely are familiar with the political views of women across the nation. This idea is exactly why you’re wrong.


Sure lots of issues, but none as big as reproductive rights.


I would bet the economy drives more votes than reproductive rights.

And you’re a bonehead if you don’t understand that abortion is an economic issue as much as it’s a human rights issue.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/


I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.
More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll. The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins. In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.


But this incumbent is a rubber stamp for the dysfunctional do-nothing GOP House, in a district that is only R+3, is mostly urban (to the extent that Davenport and Iowa City are urban), and may prefer a representative who believes that the government should function competently. This seat had flipped back and forth in four consecutive elections before 2022 when it was redrawn.
Flipping is plausible. D+16 is not.


You might think so, but there could be a big shift among women in these cities. There appears to be a snowball effect among older women and college women, as there was in other cities and suburbs in 2018 and 2020. The release of the poll may actually contribute to it.


The assumption that other women feel the same way you do is very 2016.


I’m telling you what happens in realignment elections. This is a realignment election. A bunch of “safe” House districts shifted 20%+ in 1994 and 2006 and 2010 and 2018. It’s more common in mid-terms but Trump is gifting Democrats a potential landslide of women voters this year.


There are too many women who feel that there are issues more important than abortion.

Honestly, if you truly believe in the influence of women voters, which you should, then you would recognize that they have already expressed their views. We are not where we are today solely because of male voters.


I don’t know ANY


Because you surely are familiar with the political views of women across the nation. This idea is exactly why you’re wrong.


Sure lots of issues, but none as big as reproductive rights.


I would bet the economy drives more votes than reproductive rights.

And you’re a bonehead if you don’t understand that abortion is an economic issue as much as it’s a human rights issue.


That’s a reach.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/


I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.
More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll. The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins. In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.


But this incumbent is a rubber stamp for the dysfunctional do-nothing GOP House, in a district that is only R+3, is mostly urban (to the extent that Davenport and Iowa City are urban), and may prefer a representative who believes that the government should function competently. This seat had flipped back and forth in four consecutive elections before 2022 when it was redrawn.
Flipping is plausible. D+16 is not.


You might think so, but there could be a big shift among women in these cities. There appears to be a snowball effect among older women and college women, as there was in other cities and suburbs in 2018 and 2020. The release of the poll may actually contribute to it.


The assumption that other women feel the same way you do is very 2016.


I’m telling you what happens in realignment elections. This is a realignment election. A bunch of “safe” House districts shifted 20%+ in 1994 and 2006 and 2010 and 2018. It’s more common in mid-terms but Trump is gifting Democrats a potential landslide of women voters this year.


There are too many women who feel that there are issues more important than abortion.

Honestly, if you truly believe in the influence of women voters, which you should, then you would recognize that they have already expressed their views. We are not where we are today solely because of male voters.


I don’t know ANY


Because you surely are familiar with the political views of women across the nation. This idea is exactly why you’re wrong.


Sure lots of issues, but none as big as reproductive rights.


I would bet the economy drives more votes than reproductive rights.


And you’re a bonehead if you don’t understand that abortion is an economic issue as much as it’s a human rights issue.


You are a bonehead if you don't understand that beating that drum that loud for that long drives people to vote against you just because you're nagging them. They're voting against you to spite you.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/


I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.
More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll. The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins. In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.


But this incumbent is a rubber stamp for the dysfunctional do-nothing GOP House, in a district that is only R+3, is mostly urban (to the extent that Davenport and Iowa City are urban), and may prefer a representative who believes that the government should function competently. This seat had flipped back and forth in four consecutive elections before 2022 when it was redrawn.
Flipping is plausible. D+16 is not.


You might think so, but there could be a big shift among women in these cities. There appears to be a snowball effect among older women and college women, as there was in other cities and suburbs in 2018 and 2020. The release of the poll may actually contribute to it.


The assumption that other women feel the same way you do is very 2016.


I’m telling you what happens in realignment elections. This is a realignment election. A bunch of “safe” House districts shifted 20%+ in 1994 and 2006 and 2010 and 2018. It’s more common in mid-terms but Trump is gifting Democrats a potential landslide of women voters this year.


There are too many women who feel that there are issues more important than abortion.

Honestly, if you truly believe in the influence of women voters, which you should, then you would recognize that they have already expressed their views. We are not where we are today solely because of male voters.


I don’t know ANY


Because you surely are familiar with the political views of women across the nation. This idea is exactly why you’re wrong.


Sure lots of issues, but none as big as reproductive rights.


I would bet the economy drives more votes than reproductive rights.


+1 and immigration


Anyone invested in the market is much better off now than under Trump. If that isn’t you, you might want to reconsider your investment strategies.


Adjust for inflation and interest rates sweetheart.


Adjust for interest rates? Why?


Just a dumb Republican trying to sound smart, nothing more and nothing less.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/


I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.
More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll. The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins. In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.


But this incumbent is a rubber stamp for the dysfunctional do-nothing GOP House, in a district that is only R+3, is mostly urban (to the extent that Davenport and Iowa City are urban), and may prefer a representative who believes that the government should function competently. This seat had flipped back and forth in four consecutive elections before 2022 when it was redrawn.
Flipping is plausible. D+16 is not.


You might think so, but there could be a big shift among women in these cities. There appears to be a snowball effect among older women and college women, as there was in other cities and suburbs in 2018 and 2020. The release of the poll may actually contribute to it.


The assumption that other women feel the same way you do is very 2016.


I’m telling you what happens in realignment elections. This is a realignment election. A bunch of “safe” House districts shifted 20%+ in 1994 and 2006 and 2010 and 2018. It’s more common in mid-terms but Trump is gifting Democrats a potential landslide of women voters this year.


There are too many women who feel that there are issues more important than abortion.

Honestly, if you truly believe in the influence of women voters, which you should, then you would recognize that they have already expressed their views. We are not where we are today solely because of male voters.


I don’t know ANY


Because you surely are familiar with the political views of women across the nation. This idea is exactly why you’re wrong.


Sure lots of issues, but none as big as reproductive rights.


I would bet the economy drives more votes than reproductive rights.


And you’re a bonehead if you don’t understand that abortion is an economic issue as much as it’s a human rights issue.


You are a bonehead if you don't understand that beating that drum that loud for that long drives people to vote against you just because you're nagging them. They're voting against you to spite you.


So Hillary was right about them being deplorable? I cannot imagine using my vote to spite someone who annoyed me. How pathetic.
Anonymous
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Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

I tried to watch the Mark Halperin interview of Ann Selzer but gave up because right wingers suck as interviewers, but she was pretty clear about her methodology that, though they talked to all 1000 people they random dialed, they only poll likely voters, which was about 800 people. Who are the most reliable voters? Old ladies.

It was one poll, Harris probably isn’t winning Iowa and the maga pps are still losing their minds over this.


Halperin is not a right winger.


He has a history of racism and sexual harassment so I think he fits in perfectly in the right wing


So does Joe Biden.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

I tried to watch the Mark Halperin interview of Ann Selzer but gave up because right wingers suck as interviewers, but she was pretty clear about her methodology that, though they talked to all 1000 people they random dialed, they only poll likely voters, which was about 800 people. Who are the most reliable voters? Old ladies.

It was one poll, Harris probably isn’t winning Iowa and the maga pps are still losing their minds over this.


Halperin is not a right winger.


He has a history of racism and sexual harassment so I think he fits in perfectly in the right wing



Can you just take in news without any personal shots at the person who delivers it?



Sorry, I thought we were discussing the journalist (who has quite a history, and certainly seems likely to be a right winger).

What did you want to talk about?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

I tried to watch the Mark Halperin interview of Ann Selzer but gave up because right wingers suck as interviewers, but she was pretty clear about her methodology that, though they talked to all 1000 people they random dialed, they only poll likely voters, which was about 800 people. Who are the most reliable voters? Old ladies.

It was one poll, Harris probably isn’t winning Iowa and the maga pps are still losing their minds over this.


Halperin is not a right winger.


He has a history of racism and sexual harassment so I think he fits in perfectly in the right wing


So does Joe Biden.


Okay?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Ann Selzer was on Morning Joe and said the biggest change in her Iowa poll was the shift in the likely voter demographics. All the Harris voter demos polled as more likely to turn out. Her poll also shows Democratic challengers ahead of Republican incumbents in House districts 1 and 3.


She oversampled Democrats in her poll. She admitted she doesn’t even weight for partisanship in her poll. What kind of reputable pollster creates a Democrat electorate in a state that has been leaning more and more Republican? Republicans gained in voter registration since 2020.


One who has accurately polled the state for the last decade. One who has correctly predicted 4 of the last 5 elections. One who was the canary in the coal mine for DEMOCRATS when she saw HRC and Biden losing ground and Trump's strength in the midwest in 2016 and 2020.

A lot of us didn't want to hear what she was saying in 2016, sorry the buck is falling on the other side of the road this time around.

+1

It would be an interesting book end to the whole Trump digression if Ann Selzer was the bellwether in 2016 that foretold doom for Democrats and in 2024 foretold doom for Republicans.

It would also be a thing of beauty of Trump began his political career by losing in Iowa and ended it by also losing Iowa.
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