FCPS comprehensive boundary review

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Article today in Washington Post by Dan Balz discusses the Dems post-mortem after losing in November. I wonder if the Fairfax Dems will read it and reflect on the negative impact that a comprehensive boundary review will have on the former voters that it seems to win back.

Bleak times for the party, and the boundary changes will only work against the Dems.

Every election is local. Fairfax county is solid solid blue. There is no reason for FCPS to stop itself to the race to bottom as they are the darling of ultra left foundations and unions. As parents who want best; kids are the causalities..

Yeah, but Fairfax Dems might want to start caring. You might be right that they are in a bubble though.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Article today in Washington Post by Dan Balz discusses the Dems post-mortem after losing in November. I wonder if the Fairfax Dems will read it and reflect on the negative impact that a comprehensive boundary review will have on the former voters that it seems to win back.

Bleak times for the party, and the boundary changes will only work against the Dems.

Every election is local. Fairfax county is solid solid blue. There is no reason for FCPS to stop itself to the race to bottom as they are the darling of ultra left foundations and unions. As parents who want best; kids are the causalities..

Yeah, but Fairfax Dems might want to start caring. You might be right that they are in a bubble though.

Fairfax may remain blue, but as the margins decline it makes it more likely Republicans will continue to win state and national elections. So, sure, dolts like Karl Frisch, Sandy Anderson, and Robyn Lady can impose boundary changes on FCPS families, but it will translate into more Republican politicians who push for vouchers, charters, school choice, etc. They will get their way eventually and then FCPS will end up a mere shell of its former self.

[Anonymous]

FCPS is in deep denial about the school age population of the county. It’s not increasing apart from in a few small pockets where there is still room to develop. With the actions of the presidential administration as it relates to persecuting of federal employees and possible deportations, the number of students may actually decrease even more. We won’t need rezoning apart from in a few targeted areas if most of the schools end up at 85% or below in capacity due to people moving out or having to leave the country.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:FCPS is in deep denial about the school age population of the county. It’s not increasing apart from in a few small pockets where there is still room to develop. With the actions of the presidential administration as it relates to persecuting of federal employees and possible deportations, the number of students may actually decrease even more. We won’t need rezoning apart from in a few targeted areas if most of the schools end up at 85% or below in capacity due to people moving out or having to leave the country.

Then we have rezoning due to schools being closed and sold or put on ice.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:FCPS is in deep denial about the school age population of the county. It’s not increasing apart from in a few small pockets where there is still room to develop. With the actions of the presidential administration as it relates to persecuting of federal employees and possible deportations, the number of students may actually decrease even more. We won’t need rezoning apart from in a few targeted areas if most of the schools end up at 85% or below in capacity due to people moving out or having to leave the country.

Then we have rezoning due to schools being closed and sold or put on ice.

To a rezoning hammer, everything is a nail.

[Anonymous]

Changing boundaries won't affect the rich, they can just move to another area (again, probably), or do private, and they are what drives policy around here while area natives and poors are left holding the bag. But ok, proceed

[Anonymous]

I doubt the sb wants to stick it to the rich for the fun of it. They want to save certain schools from the new VA standards by moving enough smart kids into failing schools to raise the scores. This can be accomplished with MC /UMC kids. The rich will never suffer this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I doubt the sb wants to stick it to the rich for the fun of it. They want to save certain schools from the new VA standards by moving enough smart kids into failing schools to raise the scores. This can be accomplished with MC /UMC kids. The rich will never suffer this.

I’d venture to say that the UMC won’t either. Most UMC can easily afford a couple thousand a month to rent a place in a better performing school district.

[Anonymous]

Heaven forbid they focus on educating the kids where they are.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Heaven forbid they focus on educating the kids where they are.

+1.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Article today in Washington Post by Dan Balz discusses the Dems post-mortem after losing in November. I wonder if the Fairfax Dems will read it and reflect on the negative impact that a comprehensive boundary review will have on the former voters that it seems to win back.

Bleak times for the party, and the boundary changes will only work against the Dems.

Every election is local. Fairfax county is solid solid blue. There is no reason for FCPS to stop itself to the race to bottom as they are the darling of ultra left foundations and unions. As parents who want best; kids are the causalities..

Yeah, but Fairfax Dems might want to start caring. You might be right that they are in a bubble though.

Fairfax may remain blue, but as the margins decline it makes it more likely Republicans will continue to win state and national elections. So, sure, dolts like Karl Frisch, Sandy Anderson, and Robyn Lady can impose boundary changes on FCPS families, but it will translate into more Republican politicians who push for vouchers, charters, school choice, etc. They will get their way eventually and then FCPS will end up a mere shell of its former self.

I agree with you except FCPS is already a shell of its former self.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:FCPS is in deep denial about the school age population of the county. It’s not increasing apart from in a few small pockets where there is still room to develop. With the actions of the presidential administration as it relates to persecuting of federal employees and possible deportations, the number of students may actually decrease even more. We won’t need rezoning apart from in a few targeted areas if most of the schools end up at 85% or below in capacity due to people moving out or having to leave the country.

Then we have rezoning due to schools being closed and sold or put on ice.

To a rezoning hammer, everything is a nail.

Not really, closing schools when enrollment drops is what most districts do. In the town where I grew up, they closed about a third of the elementary schools and one of three MS after the baby boom came through. It was a precipitous drop. The class three years before mine had over 800 students in their class. We had 600. The class three years after mine had 400.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:FCPS is in deep denial about the school age population of the county. It’s not increasing apart from in a few small pockets where there is still room to develop. With the actions of the presidential administration as it relates to persecuting of federal employees and possible deportations, the number of students may actually decrease even more. We won’t need rezoning apart from in a few targeted areas if most of the schools end up at 85% or below in capacity due to people moving out or having to leave the country.

I really agree with this. It's clear federal workers in our area will lose their jobs — the question is how many, not if it will happen — and undocumented families may leave (or be deported). It doesn't make sense to do a large scale boundary study now when we don't really have good projections for how these changes will impact schools. And yes, it may be too early to make those sort of projections. But it doesn't make sense to do this until we do know how these changes are going to impact the school-age population. We should know that later this year, I would think, but I worry they'll release their new proposed maps this spring and go forward with this no matter what reality looks like in this county.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:FCPS is in deep denial about the school age population of the county. It’s not increasing apart from in a few small pockets where there is still room to develop. With the actions of the presidential administration as it relates to persecuting of federal employees and possible deportations, the number of students may actually decrease even more. We won’t need rezoning apart from in a few targeted areas if most of the schools end up at 85% or below in capacity due to people moving out or having to leave the country.

I really agree with this. It's clear federal workers in our area will lose their jobs — the question is how many, not if it will happen — and undocumented families may leave (or be deported). It doesn't make sense to do a large scale boundary study now when we don't really have good projections for how these changes will impact schools. And yes, it may be too early to make those sort of projections. But it doesn't make sense to do this until we do know how these changes are going to impact the school-age population. We should know that later this year, I would think, but I worry they'll release their new proposed maps this spring and go forward with this no matter what reality looks like in this county.

They changed some boundaries during Covid, even though they had no handle on future enrollments at the time and didn't even include five-year projections in the CIP released during Covid. I wouldn't count on them not moving ahead now despite the uncertainties associated with the new Administration.

[Anonymous]

I truly think this is the closest thing to a black swan event for NoVA since 2008, and expect to see house values drop by 20-30% as many foreclose and/or move away to more affordable areas. The unfortunate reality is that this area has thrived on the government teat and is now being cut off.