Data today 7pm

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm the one who's been keeping track of the final 8 "Green" Schools as of a week ago (7, excluding Bradley Hills).

They are all very high FARMS and ESOL and almost all in SS/TP

Except for ESS as of Monday/Tuesday's high "catchup" numbers, and Rolling Terrace's moderate numbers in the past few days, they continued to post 0-2 cases per day since being designated "Green."

I don't understand what's happening there, but Occam's Razor suggests poor communication or admin organization or lack of in-school testing, or even (still?) lack of at-home tests.

Jan 12 Numbers:

Schools with consistently very very low numbers (0-2 daily) prior to Jan 12:

Cresthaven Elementary School-- 1
Greencastle Elementary School-- 4
Kemp Mill Elementary School-- 16
New Hampshire Estates ES-- 7
Twinbrook Elementary School-- 2

Mixed/moderate numbers <Jan 12:

Rolling Terrace Elem School-- 16

Very low numbers, then very high numbers Jan 10-11:
East Silver Spring Elem School-- 1

So there's some movement (that ESS number seems wrong), but Cresthaven, Greencastle and Twinbrook in particular...

If anyone is at any of these schools and would like to weigh in, please do.

IIRC, there was a Twinbrook teacher on the Hucker call several days ago saying that 25-50% of kids were already out last week, so that could explain part of this, but not all of it IMO.>

I have a child at Cresthaven. The tests were sent home on Monday. My child was negative, which I reported. People wear masks to walk outside in the neighborhood. People are COVID cautious. That being said, there are probably some missed numbers.

Thanks, I am that PP.

Good to know tests were sent home. I am skeptical this accounts for all the missed numbers (which you agree with)-- not that I disbelieve you, but just going specifically by what you said.

I am in SS/TP and people do wear masks outside, and they are COVID cautious.

However, the immediately neighboring schools have much higher numbers, and the population in the general area is less-vaccinated. The BOE/etc. folks even mentioned this on the meeting last night.

I am at ESS, and we had implausibly low numbers, and saw a truly massive jump once tests were handed out. What accounts for this disparity between ESS and most of the others, besides what I don't think is very likely-- an actual huge surge in actual cases (not just positive tests reported), limited to just ESS?

I wonder how you feel in general about the admin at your school, whether they are communicative and responsive. Also how many kids are already staying home, regardless, and how many people reported tests, and how likely admin is to have reported accurately (for any reason)? You seem to speak English fluently, but what about families who don't?

(You don't actually have to answer these questions, of course.)

I mean... I'm theoretically willing to believe that these specific schools actually have less (actual) COVID. That doesn't really explain why many schools with similar demographics and/or in the same area are reporting very high or moderate numbers. And the reasons that people are very cautious and wear masks and so on-- sure, but that's true in the surrounding SS/TP area. Maybe these parents are keeping kids home at extremely high rates, but again, I'm not sure they are doing that more than other, similar schools with high positives.

I definitely take your comment to heart, I just would love to understand more. I don't know if I know anyone else, personally, at these other schools. Maybe one.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yesterday's numbers look VERY suspicious. Schools that were posting numbers in the 20s on Monday are suddenly reporting a single case? Impossible.

If they posted high numbers on Tuesday and low on Wed, that’s probably because rapid tests were distributed on Monday.

So are you saying these are just new cases reported on the day? What we need are total active cases or this is just misleading.

This is on the MCPS dashboard. Scroll down the list to your school and click on it. It will show you active in the chart to the right.

Thanks. I hadn't seen that and it is super helpful.
FWIW, our "original 11" school is now right at 4%. We got tests on Tues/Weds.

That's great news. Could it be that going virtual actually helped?

Maybe. Hard to say...otoh, we had to schedule pickup of our tests, which might be harder for some rather than having it sent home in the backpack.
I'm sure not going to school with 900 other kids did help a little. Plus the snow.

I suspect we'll see those 11 virtual schools were the lucky ones. We know so many families flying in at the last minute with possible exposure and they sent their kids to school right away without testing so the schools that went virtual had 2 weeks for symptoms in those kids to show up while they were presumably not out and about a lot.

I hope someone is keeping track of this. These are mainly large schools (Seneca Valley, Roberto Clemente, Hallie Wells - all huge). It will be interesting to see counts of cases/staff out the next 2, 4, 6 weeks compared to similar schools in the district that stayed open. It could possibly also inform decisions in the future. Do short virtual periods help or do they not make any difference in the situation of high community transmission?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yesterday's numbers look VERY suspicious. Schools that were posting numbers in the 20s on Monday are suddenly reporting a single case? Impossible.

If they posted high numbers on Tuesday and low on Wed, that’s probably because rapid tests were distributed on Monday.

So are you saying these are just new cases reported on the day? What we need are total active cases or this is just misleading.

This is on the MCPS dashboard. Scroll down the list to your school and click on it. It will show you active in the chart to the right.

Thanks. I hadn't seen that and it is super helpful.
FWIW, our "original 11" school is now right at 4%. We got tests on Tues/Weds.

That's great news. Could it be that going virtual actually helped?

Maybe. Hard to say...otoh, we had to schedule pickup of our tests, which might be harder for some rather than having it sent home in the backpack.
I'm sure not going to school with 900 other kids did help a little. Plus the snow.

I suspect we'll see those 11 virtual schools were the lucky ones. We know so many families flying in at the last minute with possible exposure and they sent their kids to school right away without testing so the schools that went virtual had 2 weeks for symptoms in those kids to show up while they were presumably not out and about a lot.

Why do you think they’re not out and about or seeing other people? Part of the reason the original 11 dated virtual is because so many staff and families had made “plans” for the two weeks. We are at a nearby school and I know of folks leaving town altogether, or flying in grandparents to help.

[Anonymous]

A lot of cases at central office reported yesterday- anyone know why? Or does that include bus drivers?

[Anonymous]

Central office may be mandating return of test results?

I would love to see numbers on home many people are actually reporting results at each school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm the one who's been keeping track of the final 8 "Green" Schools as of a week ago (7, excluding Bradley Hills).

They are all very high FARMS and ESOL and almost all in SS/TP

Except for ESS as of Monday/Tuesday's high "catchup" numbers, and Rolling Terrace's moderate numbers in the past few days, they continued to post 0-2 cases per day since being designated "Green."

I don't understand what's happening there, but Occam's Razor suggests poor communication or admin organization or lack of in-school testing, or even (still?) lack of at-home tests.

Jan 12 Numbers:

Schools with consistently very very low numbers (0-2 daily) prior to Jan 12:

Cresthaven Elementary School-- 1
Greencastle Elementary School-- 4
Kemp Mill Elementary School-- 16
New Hampshire Estates ES-- 7
Twinbrook Elementary School-- 2

Mixed/moderate numbers <Jan 12:

Rolling Terrace Elem School-- 16

Very low numbers, then very high numbers Jan 10-11:
East Silver Spring Elem School-- 1

So there's some movement (that ESS number seems wrong), but Cresthaven, Greencastle and Twinbrook in particular...

If anyone is at any of these schools and would like to weigh in, please do.

IIRC, there was a Twinbrook teacher on the Hucker call several days ago saying that 25-50% of kids were already out last week, so that could explain part of this, but not all of it IMO.>

I have a child at Cresthaven. The tests were sent home on Monday. My child was negative, which I reported. People wear masks to walk outside in the neighborhood. People are COVID cautious. That being said, there are probably some missed numbers.

Thanks, I am that PP.

Good to know tests were sent home. I am skeptical this accounts for all the missed numbers (which you agree with)-- not that I disbelieve you, but just going specifically by what you said.

I am in SS/TP and people do wear masks outside, and they are COVID cautious.

However, the immediately neighboring schools have much higher numbers, and the population in the general area is less-vaccinated. The BOE/etc. folks even mentioned this on the meeting last night.

I am at ESS, and we had implausibly low numbers, and saw a truly massive jump once tests were handed out. What accounts for this disparity between ESS and most of the others, besides what I don't think is very likely-- an actual huge surge in actual cases (not just positive tests reported), limited to just ESS?

I wonder how you feel in general about the admin at your school, whether they are communicative and responsive. Also how many kids are already staying home, regardless, and how many people reported tests, and how likely admin is to have reported accurately (for any reason)? You seem to speak English fluently, but what about families who don't?

(You don't actually have to answer these questions, of course.)

I mean... I'm theoretically willing to believe that these specific schools actually have less (actual) COVID. That doesn't really explain why many schools with similar demographics and/or in the same area are reporting very high or moderate numbers. And the reasons that people are very cautious and wear masks and so on-- sure, but that's true in the surrounding SS/TP area. Maybe these parents are keeping kids home at extremely high rates, but again, I'm not sure they are doing that more than other, similar schools with high positives.

I definitely take your comment to heart, I just would love to understand more. I don't know if I know anyone else, personally, at these other schools. Maybe one.

I am the PP with a child at Cresthaven. I think the school could communicate more. I know there were unreported cases before the break. My child told me the teacher shared that some classmates were out due to COVID. This is second hand information. I have not received any notices about COVID cases at the school. I was called to pick my child up from school because they were coughing in class. One episode of coughing due to something in their throat and I was called. The nurse acknowledged no fever and after drinking water, no cough. This happened before the break. So, the school is not playing with COVID.

Absences could be a factor. I did not send my child to school the week of December 20th, or last week. Monday was their first day back at school after the break. There are less kids at the bus stop.

The letter that came home on Monday with the test was in English. That could be because we are an English speaking family and they probably had different letters for Spanish speaking families. They usually give out both versions.

Cresthaven is a grade 3 to 5 school. My child is vaccinated. We went to clinics at a local middle school that was packed for the first shot, but not the second.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Central office may be mandating return of test results?

I would love to see numbers on home many people are actually reporting results at each school.

Great. So they may be mandating to keep themselves safe because they know mandatory reporting works, but they wont do the same for our kids. All MCPS families - whether you're for or against virtual - should be clamoring for a test to stay program. It's the best way to keep kids in school safely along with mandatory K/N95 masking.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Central office may be mandating return of test results?

I would love to see numbers on home many people are actually reporting results at each school.

Great. So they may be mandating to keep themselves safe because they know mandatory reporting works, but they wont do the same for our kids. All MCPS families - whether you're for or against virtual - should be clamoring for a test to stay program. It's the best way to keep kids in school safely along with mandatory K/N95 masking.

The problem I have with mandatory N95/KN95 masking is that comfort and fit vary so widely. If the mask is too big or the child is pulling it down because it’s uncomfortable, what’s the point? Not all parents have the resources to try multiple kinds (if you can even find them). MCPS is reportedly going to be giving out 1 mask per student per week. So you’d have kids wearing the same potentially ill fitting mask for 5 days in a row. Sounds productive. Just focus on your own kid. They all take them off to eat anyway.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yesterday's numbers look VERY suspicious. Schools that were posting numbers in the 20s on Monday are suddenly reporting a single case? Impossible.

you think mcps is in the business of falsifying numbers, seriously?

[Anonymous]

I've seen maybe a dozen posts from parents who said they would simply lie about their test results.

I don't personally believe this exercise has been about getting accurate numbers. Our kids have told us that dozens of kids stayed home this week. So if asymptomatic kids are staying at home now then that is better than them being in school

Of course, with some parents intentionally sending their positive kids to school the benefits to the home testing exercise will be blunted.

But at least MCPS is making an honest effort. Which is more than can be said about some of our parents

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I've seen maybe a dozen posts from parents who said they would simply lie about their test results.

I don't personally believe this exercise has been about getting accurate numbers. Our kids have told us that dozens of kids stayed home this week. So if asymptomatic kids are staying at home now then that is better than them being in school

Of course, with some parents intentionally sending their positive kids to school the benefits to the home testing exercise will be blunted.

But at least MCPS is making an honest effort. Which is more than can be said about some of our parents

4:45 - where are today's numbers?

[Anonymous]

Reagarding FARMs schools with low positive cases day after day, keep in mind they may NOT have received the free test. My kids elementary is receiving test today i believe.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I've seen maybe a dozen posts from parents who said they would simply lie about their test results.

I don't personally believe this exercise has been about getting accurate numbers. Our kids have told us that dozens of kids stayed home this week. So if asymptomatic kids are staying at home now then that is better than them being in school

Of course, with some parents intentionally sending their positive kids to school the benefits to the home testing exercise will be blunted.

But at least MCPS is making an honest effort. Which is more than can be said about some of our parents

4:45 - where are today's numbers?

It’s cases *reported* by 4:00, *posted* by 7pm.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yesterday's numbers look VERY suspicious. Schools that were posting numbers in the 20s on Monday are suddenly reporting a single case? Impossible.

you think mcps is in the business of falsifying numbers, seriously?

DP. I'm not sure what's going on with the numbers but there's only one case posted for our school yesterday and I know for a fact that multiple cases were reported yesterday.

[Anonymous]

Wow, Gaithersburg ES has 42 new cases — seems a lot for an ES.