Biden’s economy

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

If operation warp speed wasn’t done we wouldn’t have had the vaccine that liberals love.

I remember when it came out democrats were against the vaccine, then when January 2021 came around we literally had them change their talking points.

Bidenomics and the shutdown of the economy didn’t help. Inflation took off and there was no response from the administration.


I posted this on another thead, and it was easier to cut and paste it than type it again. OWS was a failure for Trump, not a success.

You think that Operation Warp Speed was a good thing?

After declining to be a part of OWS, Pfizer, was still the first company to come up with a successful Covid-19 vaccination. Because Pfizer would not participate in OWS, Trump's administration only purchased 100M doses to being with, enough for 50M people (less than 1/6 of the US population). The Trump administration, as was normal, banked far more on solutions that would help the egocentric President's image, so they banked the majority of the nation's funds on companies that would participate in OWS and make the OWS the highlight that would put a feather in POTUS' cap. So they invested in the problematic Moderna and J&J. By the time that Pfizer had FDA/CDC approval, Trump's administration tried to purchase more vaccines, but when the Trump administration would not purchase the vaccines in the original deal, Pfizer then made arrangements with many other nations around the world to sell to them. The rest of the original production of Pfizer vaccines went internationally while the US then waited for Moderna and J&J to catch up. Months later, they were able to get an agreement with Pfizer to purchase a second batch of 100M doses.

And even with the money that OWS pumped into those two pharmaceuticals, they were not well equipped to do the work on the vaccines and they cut a lot of corners. Even with the huge infusion of money, these two companies lagged months behind Pfizer in research, testing, clinical trials and more. Then, when they were finally able to get their vaccines finished, they were short the resources to manufacture and distribute their vaccines in the quantity that they promised and were supposed to deliver. So J&J hired Emergent Biotech to help them manufacture and distribute their vaccines. But Emergent had already been cited more than once for cutting corners, not following safe lab practices, and not being thorough on documentation. And what happened? Surprise, Emergent contaminated a batch of nearly 15M doses of the vaccine, more than half of what they were supposed to deliver (10M doses were allowed to be distributed, 15M doses had to be trashed). Even with the huge influx of cash, Moderna was never able to meet their promised distribution, often 6-12 months behind what was promised.

Had the Trump administration not pushed OWS and had just committed to purchase vaccinations from the first company that could get FDA and CDC approval, we would have had 400M doses of Pfizer vaccine more than a year ahead of when we reached that number waiting for Moderna and J&J to finish, get approved and ramp up production enough to accommodate their portion of the deal and for Pfizer's second round of production to be available to the US.

More than a year during with hundreds of thousands of patients died, many of whom may not have died had they been able to get vaccinations sooner.

OWS was a terrible mistake by Trump and so many don't understand how OWS actually slowed down getting vaccinations into arms of patients and how many lives that OWS cost us.


this has nothing to do with the Mandates imposed by Democrats, not Trump. The mandates are the culprit and what contributed negatively to our economy, which is the topic of our discussion. I will blame THIS administration for the disaster of legalizing segregation and splitting our society even further than what happened in 2020.

I am not a fan of OWS myself and don't disagree with what you are saying, i am not a fan of Trump for going for it and for not putting the foot in the door on treatments which I think are much more effective in making this pandemic become endemic sooner. There are mistakes done under his administration, but politicization of the entire pandemic and especially vaccine mandates and vaxxports was the doing of the democrats. Covid became a tool in the election, and it also became a tool to introduce tighter controls over the behavior of the masses in big Metro areas and make them amendable to submitting the fundamental rights of consent over what medical interventions can go inside their bodies.


No, actually. The whole pandemic was politicized in the first few weeks when Republicans called this a “blue state bug” and refused to support masking and closures. I was there. I remember clearly.


then your memory isn't good.

Actually what happened is Pelosi and the Democrats marching around China town saying there was no virus.

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/nancy-pelosi-visits-san-franciscos-chinatown/2240247/

Pepperidge farm remembers...

We also remember when people like Newsome and the Obama's said everyone had to wear masks...then like...they didn't and went out and had parties and stuff while the rest of America suffered.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Oh goodie, another week another bad economic print... durable goods down -2.2%. Expectation was 0.5% while Joe is sleeping through the NATO meeting.


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/-lot-people-need-help-soaring-electric-bills-leave-struggling-pay-rcna16347

Power bills were rising sharply before the Russia...

In some cases power bills are doubling
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/electric-bills-double-for-u-s-families-with-fuel-costs-surging

Hey...no more mean tweets though...amarite?

Bidenomics is killing the middle and lower class...
jsteele
Site Admin Online
While some here are heavily invested in finding every black cloud, here is some good news:

Anonymous
In a post truth world, facts don't matter.
Anonymous
jsteele wrote:While some here are heavily invested in finding every black cloud, here is some good news:



  • After four straight months of growth, analysts expected US durable goods orders to decline in February and they did but far more than expected (tumbling 2.2% MoM vs -0.6% MoM expected).

    New home and existing home sales have slowed. According to bankrate.com the national average for 30 year mortgages has surged from 3.07% in November to 4.53% now! And it isn’t just 30 year rates that have surged, all across the curve mortgage rates have increased. Refinancing activity has plunged. Unemployment remains well above the pre-covid levels which were in the very low 3%-range.


  • We're on the verge of a likely recession
    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/odds-of-us-recession-in-2022-much-higher-vs-a-year-ago-says-fmr-chase-chief-economist
    https://www.reuters.com/business/us-yield-curve-points-recession-risk-market-challenges-feds-soft-landing-2022-03-21/

    The bond market is going crazy...which points to a massive recession on the horizon. There shouldn't be a recession with unemployment so low so it's showing how weak the economy really is.

    Surging fuel and energy costs are making most people wonder if they need to get gas or should they eat that day. Lots of people think the 9-5 isn't a safe bet in this economy
    https://hbr.org/2022/03/workers-dont-feel-like-a-9-to-5-job-is-a-safe-bet-anymore

    So they're leaving.
    The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that some 4.3 million Americans quit their jobs in January 2022 alone. Many of those who quit chose to turn to self-employment. According to a McKinsey study, “31% of employees who left their job in the past six months did so to start a new business.”


    Many are taking gig jobs or are starting their own business that offers no benefits or they take on a lot of risk. But for that many people to leave the workforce and take on the risk of self-employment it shows the pay isn't matching inflation or working those jobs is a worse option that taking a huge risk. That's not the sign of a healthy economy.





    jsteele
    Site Admin Online
    Anonymous wrote:
    So they're leaving.
    The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that some 4.3 million Americans quit their jobs in January 2022 alone. Many of those who quit chose to turn to self-employment. According to a McKinsey study, “31% of employees who left their job in the past six months did so to start a new business.”


    Many are taking gig jobs or are starting their own business that offers no benefits or they take on a lot of risk. But for that many people to leave the workforce and take on the risk of self-employment it shows the pay isn't matching inflation or working those jobs is a worse option that taking a huge risk. That's not the sign of a healthy economy.


    It is really remarkable how much you guys will bend yourself into pretzels to make things look bad. In normal times, quitting your job to start a business is part of the American dream. Heck, I did that myself. It was the best decision I ever made. Imagine how far Republicans have fallen that they now consider becoming an independent business person a bad thing?
    Anonymous
    Anonymous wrote:[…]

    Many are taking gig jobs or are starting their own business that offers no benefits or they take on a lot of risk. But for that many people to leave the workforce and take on the risk of self-employment it shows the pay isn't matching inflation or working those jobs is a worse option that taking a huge risk. That's not the sign of a healthy economy.

    You’re right. It’s a sign that businesses, vaunted as the impersonal, unemotional but always rational model that can’t put a foot wrong because the invisible hand would always correct imbalances, are, in fact, too stupid to notice that the balance has shifted. Places that pay well and respect their staff aren’t having difficulty finding staff - just the crap jobs are struggling. Those who think that we should abolish minimum wage and that management should get all the profits and not share with the workers who make those profits possible are the ones who are struggling. Are they learning? Hell no. They’re doubling down.
    Anonymous
    jsteele wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    So they're leaving.
    The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that some 4.3 million Americans quit their jobs in January 2022 alone. Many of those who quit chose to turn to self-employment. According to a McKinsey study, “31% of employees who left their job in the past six months did so to start a new business.”


    Many are taking gig jobs or are starting their own business that offers no benefits or they take on a lot of risk. But for that many people to leave the workforce and take on the risk of self-employment it shows the pay isn't matching inflation or working those jobs is a worse option that taking a huge risk. That's not the sign of a healthy economy.


    It is really remarkable how much you guys will bend yourself into pretzels to make things look bad. In normal times, quitting your job to start a business is part of the American dream. Heck, I did that myself. It was the best decision I ever made. Imagine how far Republicans have fallen that they now consider becoming an independent business person a bad thing?


    Not only that, but this is part of the reviving economy. When the pandemic hit, the hardest hit sector was small self-owned businesses and gig jobs. So many of those types of jobs disappeared because of the shutdown. The fact is that there is now a huge dearth of small business owners and self-employed. The fact that people are once again feeling comfortable to return to self-employment is a good thing.
    Anonymous

    According to bankrate.com the national average for 30 year mortgages has surged from 3.07% in November to 4.53% now


    That's actually some good news. Maybe the real interest rate will climb above 0%.
    Anonymous
    Anonymous wrote:

    According to bankrate.com the national average for 30 year mortgages has surged from 3.07% in November to 4.53% now


    That's actually some good news. Maybe the real interest rate will climb above 0%.


    With the price of homes skyrocketing along with the highest inflation in 40 years...that will put more out of the market.
    Anonymous
    jsteele wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    So they're leaving.
    The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that some 4.3 million Americans quit their jobs in January 2022 alone. Many of those who quit chose to turn to self-employment. According to a McKinsey study, “31% of employees who left their job in the past six months did so to start a new business.”


    Many are taking gig jobs or are starting their own business that offers no benefits or they take on a lot of risk. But for that many people to leave the workforce and take on the risk of self-employment it shows the pay isn't matching inflation or working those jobs is a worse option that taking a huge risk. That's not the sign of a healthy economy.


    It is really remarkable how much you guys will bend yourself into pretzels to make things look bad. In normal times, quitting your job to start a business is part of the American dream. Heck, I did that myself. It was the best decision I ever made. Imagine how far Republicans have fallen that they now consider becoming an independent business person a bad thing?


    The failure rate for small business is 50% in five years.

    The economy is in such a drag that taking a risk is a better option.

    A lot of places were shut down due to democrat let polices of shutting down the economy, so we have a lot of issues coming up dealing with that. We have yet to see the fallout.


    Anonymous
    Anonymous wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:

    According to bankrate.com the national average for 30 year mortgages has surged from 3.07% in November to 4.53% now


    That's actually some good news. Maybe the real interest rate will climb above 0%.


    With the price of homes skyrocketing along with the highest inflation in 40 years...that will put more out of the market.


    Home prices have been skyrocketing for years with interest rates scraping the historic bottom.
    Anonymous
    https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/worker-bargaining-power-has-been-no-match-high-inflation

    Wages and benefits have been moving up smartly, but only in nominal terms. As pointed out in an analysis for the Petersen Institute above; total compensation is 0.6% below its December 2019 level after adjusting for inflation. Economists see rising wages and rising prices as “two sides of the same coin.”

    For most people, though, the net effect in today’s economy is that the coins they are getting don’t go as far.

    It stands to reason that changes in the real value of wages would have a bigger effect on public sentiment than changes in the unemployment rate. The number of people paying more at the pump and the grocery store is much larger than the number of people who have gotten new jobs or jobs that pay more.
    jsteele
    Site Admin Online
    Anonymous wrote:
    jsteele wrote:
    Anonymous wrote:
    So they're leaving.
    The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that some 4.3 million Americans quit their jobs in January 2022 alone. Many of those who quit chose to turn to self-employment. According to a McKinsey study, “31% of employees who left their job in the past six months did so to start a new business.”


    Many are taking gig jobs or are starting their own business that offers no benefits or they take on a lot of risk. But for that many people to leave the workforce and take on the risk of self-employment it shows the pay isn't matching inflation or working those jobs is a worse option that taking a huge risk. That's not the sign of a healthy economy.


    It is really remarkable how much you guys will bend yourself into pretzels to make things look bad. In normal times, quitting your job to start a business is part of the American dream. Heck, I did that myself. It was the best decision I ever made. Imagine how far Republicans have fallen that they now consider becoming an independent business person a bad thing?


    The failure rate for small business is 50% in five years.

    The economy is in such a drag that taking a risk is a better option.

    A lot of places were shut down due to democrat let polices of shutting down the economy, so we have a lot of issues coming up dealing with that. We have yet to see the fallout.




    You make no sense. If the economy is a drag, then an undesirable job would be a better option than taking the risk of starting a business.

    I know that spending your days repeating conservative talking points does not provide an understanding of small businesses, but as someone who quit a secure job to start a business, let me try to explain it to you. Right now there are plenty of opportunities for small businesses. Moreover, one of the biggest incentives for staying employed at a large business is access to health insurance. The ACA reduces that incentive by providing access for the self-employeed. Biden has expanded ACA subsidies, which further removes one obstacle to starting a new business. There is literally no way that you can spin individuals leaving jobs to start new businesses into a negative. You only remove all doubt that you are simply a partisan hack with no real values.
    Anonymous
    Anonymous wrote:Jeff needs to "stay in his lane" and focus on blocking those who troll dcum



    Even Barons notes that:
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-low-unemployment-rate-could-actually-be-a-recession-indicator-51559296851

    More here
    https://www.reuters.com/business/us-road-1950s-style-unemployment-it-may-only-be-pit-stop-2022-02-07/

    Historically he's right, recession will probably soon follow:

    If you look at the charts, low unemployment with higher inflation usually leads to a big downturn.

    Year / Unemployment Rate (December) /Annual GDP Growth/ Inflation (December, YOY) Notable Events
    1929 3.2% NA 0.6% Market crash
    1930 8.7% -8.5% -6.4% Smoot-Hawley
    1931 15.9% -6.4% -9.3% Dust Bowl
    1932 23.6% -12.9% -10.3% Hoover's tax hikes
    1933 24.9% -1.2% 0.8% FDR's New Deal
    1934 21.7% 10.8% 1.5% Depression eased, thanks to New Deal
    1935 20.1% 8.9% 3.0%
    1936 16.9% 12.9% 1.4%
    1937 14.3% 5.1% 2.9% Spending cuts
    1938 19.0% -3.3% -2.8% FLSA starts minimum wage
    1939 17.2% 8.0% 0% Drought ended
    1940 14.6% 8.8% 0.7% U.S. draft
    1941 9.9% 17.7% 9.9% Pearl Harbor
    1942 4.7% 18.9% 9.0% Defense spending tripled
    1943 1.9% 17.0% 3.0% Germany surrendered at Stalingrad
    1944 1.2% 8.0% 2.3% Bretton Woods
    1945 1.9% -1.0% 2.2% War ends. Min wage $0.40
    1946 3.9% -11.6% 18.1% Employment Act
    1947 3.6% -1.1% 8.8% Marshall Plan negotiated
    1948 4.0% 4.1% 3.0% Truman re-elected
    1949 6.6% -0.6% -2.1% Fair Deal; NATO
    1950 4.3% 8.7% 5.9% Korean War; Min wage $0.75
    1951 3.1% 8.0% 6.0% Expansion
    1952 2.7% 4.1% 0.8% Expansion
    1953 4.5% 4.7% 0.7% Korean War ended
    1954 5.0% -0.6% -0.7% Dow returned to 1929 level
    1955 4.2% 7.1% 0.4% Unemployment fell
    1956 4.2% 2.1% 3.0% Minimum wage $1.00
    1957 5.2% 2.1% 2.9% Recession
    1958 6.2% -0.7% 1.8%
    1959 5.3% 6.9% 1.7% Expansion
    1960 6.6% 2.6% 1.4% Recession
    1961 6.0% 2.6% 0.7% JFK; Min wage $1.15
    1962 5.5% 6.1% 1.3% Cuban Missile Crisis
    1963 5.5% 4.4% 1.6% LBJ; Min wage $1.25
    1964 5.0% 5.8% 1.0% Tax cut
    1965 4.0% 6.5% 1.9% U.S. enters Vietnam War
    1966 3.8% 6.6% 3.5% Expansion
    1967 3.8% 2.7% 3.0% Min wage $1.40
    1968 3.4% 4.9% 4.7% Min wage $1.60
    1969 3.5% 3.1% 6.2% Nixon took office
    1970 6.1% 0.2% 5.6% Recession
    1971 6.0% 3.3% 3.3% Emergency Employment Act; Wage-price controls
    1972 5.2% 5.3% 3.4% Ongoing Stagflation; Watergate break-in
    1973 4.9% 5.6% 8.7% CETA ; Gold standard ; Vietnam War ended
    1974 7.2% -0.5% 12.3% Nixon resigns; Min. wage $2.00
    1975 8.2% -0.2% 6.9% Recession ended
    1976 7.8% 5.4% 4.9% Expansion
    1977 6.4% 4.6% 6.7% Carter took office
    1978 6.0% 5.5% 9.0% Fed raised rate to 20% to stop inflation
    1979 6.0% 3.2% 13.3%
    1980 7.2% -0.3% 12.5% Recession
    1981 8.5% 2.5% 8.9% Reagan tax cuts; Min. wage $3.35
    1982 10.8% -1.8% 3.8% Job Training Partnership Act; Garn-St.Germain Act
    1983 8.3% 4.6% 3.8% Reagan increased military spending
    1984 7.3% 7.2% 3.9%
    1985 7.0% 4.2% 3.8% Expansion
    1986 6.6% 3.5% 1.1% Tax cuts
    1987 5.7% 3.5% 4.4% Black Monday
    1988 5.3% 4.2% 4.4% Fed raised rate
    1989 5.4% 3.7% 4.6% Reforms made to address S&L Crisis
    1990 6.3% 1.9% 6.1% Recession
    1991 7.3% -0.1% 3.1% Desert Storm; Min. wage $4.25
    1992 7.4% 3.5% 2.9% NAFTA drafted
    1993 6.5% 2.8% 2.7% Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act
    1994 5.5% 4.0% 2.7% School to Work Act
    1995 5.6% 2.7% 2.5% Expansion
    1996 5.4% 3.8% 3.3% Welfare reform
    1997 4.7% 4.4% 1.7% Min. wage $5.85
    1998 4.4% 4.5% 1.6% LTCM crisis
    1999 4.0% 4.8% 2.7% Euro; Serbian airstrike
    2000 3.9% 4.1% 3.4% NASDAQ hit record high
    2001 5.7% 1.0% 1.6% Bush tax cuts; 9/11 attacks
    2002 6.0% 1.7% 2.4% War on Terror
    2003 5.7% 2.8% 1.9% JGTRRA
    2004 5.4% 3.9% 3.3% Expansion
    2005 4.9% 3.5% 3.4% Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention Act; Katrina
    2006 4.4% 2.8% 2.5% Expansion
    2007 5.0% 2.0% 4.1%
    2008 7.3% 0.1% 0.1% Min. wage $6.55; Financial crisis
    2009 9.9% -2.6% 2.7% ARRA; Minimum wage $7.25; Jobless benefits extended
    2010 9.3% 2.7% 1.5% Obama tax cuts
    2011 8.5% 1.5% 3.0% 26 months of job losses by July; Debt ceiling crisis; Iraq War ended
    2012 7.9% 2.3% 1.7% QE; 10-year rate at 200-year low; Fiscal cliff
    2013 6.7% 1.8% 1.5% Stocks up 30%; Long term = 5% unemployment
    2014 5.6% 2.3% 0.8% Unemployment at 2007 levels
    2015 5.0% 2.7% 0.7% Natural rate
    2016 4.7% 1.7% 2.1% Presidential race
    2017 4.1% 2.3% 2.1% Dollar weakened
    2018 3.9% 2.9% 1.9% Trump tax cuts
    2019 3.6% 2.3% 2.3% Goldilocks economy
    2020 6.7% -3.4% 1.4% COVID-19 pandemic and recession
    2021 3.9% 5.7% 7.0% COVID-19 pandemic and recovery

    This year the inflation rate is 8%, highest since 1981. We reached the Goldilocks economy under Trump, but since then it's been bad.

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