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then your memory isn't good. Actually what happened is Pelosi and the Democrats marching around China town saying there was no virus. https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/nancy-pelosi-visits-san-franciscos-chinatown/2240247/ Pepperidge farm remembers... We also remember when people like Newsome and the Obama's said everyone had to wear masks...then like...they didn't and went out and had parties and stuff while the rest of America suffered. |
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/-lot-people-need-help-soaring-electric-bills-leave-struggling-pay-rcna16347 Power bills were rising sharply before the Russia... In some cases power bills are doubling https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/electric-bills-double-for-u-s-families-with-fuel-costs-surging Hey...no more mean tweets though...amarite? Bidenomics is killing the middle and lower class... |
| In a post truth world, facts don't matter. |
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New home and existing home sales have slowed. According to bankrate.com the national average for 30 year mortgages has surged from 3.07% in November to 4.53% now! And it isn’t just 30 year rates that have surged, all across the curve mortgage rates have increased. Refinancing activity has plunged. Unemployment remains well above the pre-covid levels which were in the very low 3%-range. We're on the verge of a likely recession https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/odds-of-us-recession-in-2022-much-higher-vs-a-year-ago-says-fmr-chase-chief-economist https://www.reuters.com/business/us-yield-curve-points-recession-risk-market-challenges-feds-soft-landing-2022-03-21/ The bond market is going crazy...which points to a massive recession on the horizon. There shouldn't be a recession with unemployment so low so it's showing how weak the economy really is. Surging fuel and energy costs are making most people wonder if they need to get gas or should they eat that day. Lots of people think the 9-5 isn't a safe bet in this economy https://hbr.org/2022/03/workers-dont-feel-like-a-9-to-5-job-is-a-safe-bet-anymore So they're leaving.
Many are taking gig jobs or are starting their own business that offers no benefits or they take on a lot of risk. But for that many people to leave the workforce and take on the risk of self-employment it shows the pay isn't matching inflation or working those jobs is a worse option that taking a huge risk. That's not the sign of a healthy economy. |
It is really remarkable how much you guys will bend yourself into pretzels to make things look bad. In normal times, quitting your job to start a business is part of the American dream. Heck, I did that myself. It was the best decision I ever made. Imagine how far Republicans have fallen that they now consider becoming an independent business person a bad thing? |
You’re right. It’s a sign that businesses, vaunted as the impersonal, unemotional but always rational model that can’t put a foot wrong because the invisible hand would always correct imbalances, are, in fact, too stupid to notice that the balance has shifted. Places that pay well and respect their staff aren’t having difficulty finding staff - just the crap jobs are struggling. Those who think that we should abolish minimum wage and that management should get all the profits and not share with the workers who make those profits possible are the ones who are struggling. Are they learning? Hell no. They’re doubling down. |
Not only that, but this is part of the reviving economy. When the pandemic hit, the hardest hit sector was small self-owned businesses and gig jobs. So many of those types of jobs disappeared because of the shutdown. The fact is that there is now a huge dearth of small business owners and self-employed. The fact that people are once again feeling comfortable to return to self-employment is a good thing. |
That's actually some good news. Maybe the real interest rate will climb above 0%. |
With the price of homes skyrocketing along with the highest inflation in 40 years...that will put more out of the market. |
The failure rate for small business is 50% in five years. The economy is in such a drag that taking a risk is a better option. A lot of places were shut down due to democrat let polices of shutting down the economy, so we have a lot of issues coming up dealing with that. We have yet to see the fallout. |
Home prices have been skyrocketing for years with interest rates scraping the historic bottom. |
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https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/worker-bargaining-power-has-been-no-match-high-inflation
Wages and benefits have been moving up smartly, but only in nominal terms. As pointed out in an analysis for the Petersen Institute above; total compensation is 0.6% below its December 2019 level after adjusting for inflation. Economists see rising wages and rising prices as “two sides of the same coin.” For most people, though, the net effect in today’s economy is that the coins they are getting don’t go as far. It stands to reason that changes in the real value of wages would have a bigger effect on public sentiment than changes in the unemployment rate. The number of people paying more at the pump and the grocery store is much larger than the number of people who have gotten new jobs or jobs that pay more. |
You make no sense. If the economy is a drag, then an undesirable job would be a better option than taking the risk of starting a business. I know that spending your days repeating conservative talking points does not provide an understanding of small businesses, but as someone who quit a secure job to start a business, let me try to explain it to you. Right now there are plenty of opportunities for small businesses. Moreover, one of the biggest incentives for staying employed at a large business is access to health insurance. The ACA reduces that incentive by providing access for the self-employeed. Biden has expanded ACA subsidies, which further removes one obstacle to starting a new business. There is literally no way that you can spin individuals leaving jobs to start new businesses into a negative. You only remove all doubt that you are simply a partisan hack with no real values. |
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Even Barons notes that: https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-low-unemployment-rate-could-actually-be-a-recession-indicator-51559296851 More here https://www.reuters.com/business/us-road-1950s-style-unemployment-it-may-only-be-pit-stop-2022-02-07/ Historically he's right, recession will probably soon follow: If you look at the charts, low unemployment with higher inflation usually leads to a big downturn. Year / Unemployment Rate (December) /Annual GDP Growth/ Inflation (December, YOY) Notable Events 1929 3.2% NA 0.6% Market crash 1930 8.7% -8.5% -6.4% Smoot-Hawley 1931 15.9% -6.4% -9.3% Dust Bowl 1932 23.6% -12.9% -10.3% Hoover's tax hikes 1933 24.9% -1.2% 0.8% FDR's New Deal 1934 21.7% 10.8% 1.5% Depression eased, thanks to New Deal 1935 20.1% 8.9% 3.0% 1936 16.9% 12.9% 1.4% 1937 14.3% 5.1% 2.9% Spending cuts 1938 19.0% -3.3% -2.8% FLSA starts minimum wage 1939 17.2% 8.0% 0% Drought ended 1940 14.6% 8.8% 0.7% U.S. draft 1941 9.9% 17.7% 9.9% Pearl Harbor 1942 4.7% 18.9% 9.0% Defense spending tripled 1943 1.9% 17.0% 3.0% Germany surrendered at Stalingrad 1944 1.2% 8.0% 2.3% Bretton Woods 1945 1.9% -1.0% 2.2% War ends. Min wage $0.40 1946 3.9% -11.6% 18.1% Employment Act 1947 3.6% -1.1% 8.8% Marshall Plan negotiated 1948 4.0% 4.1% 3.0% Truman re-elected 1949 6.6% -0.6% -2.1% Fair Deal; NATO 1950 4.3% 8.7% 5.9% Korean War; Min wage $0.75 1951 3.1% 8.0% 6.0% Expansion 1952 2.7% 4.1% 0.8% Expansion 1953 4.5% 4.7% 0.7% Korean War ended 1954 5.0% -0.6% -0.7% Dow returned to 1929 level 1955 4.2% 7.1% 0.4% Unemployment fell 1956 4.2% 2.1% 3.0% Minimum wage $1.00 1957 5.2% 2.1% 2.9% Recession 1958 6.2% -0.7% 1.8% 1959 5.3% 6.9% 1.7% Expansion 1960 6.6% 2.6% 1.4% Recession 1961 6.0% 2.6% 0.7% JFK; Min wage $1.15 1962 5.5% 6.1% 1.3% Cuban Missile Crisis 1963 5.5% 4.4% 1.6% LBJ; Min wage $1.25 1964 5.0% 5.8% 1.0% Tax cut 1965 4.0% 6.5% 1.9% U.S. enters Vietnam War 1966 3.8% 6.6% 3.5% Expansion 1967 3.8% 2.7% 3.0% Min wage $1.40 1968 3.4% 4.9% 4.7% Min wage $1.60 1969 3.5% 3.1% 6.2% Nixon took office 1970 6.1% 0.2% 5.6% Recession 1971 6.0% 3.3% 3.3% Emergency Employment Act; Wage-price controls 1972 5.2% 5.3% 3.4% Ongoing Stagflation; Watergate break-in 1973 4.9% 5.6% 8.7% CETA ; Gold standard ; Vietnam War ended 1974 7.2% -0.5% 12.3% Nixon resigns; Min. wage $2.00 1975 8.2% -0.2% 6.9% Recession ended 1976 7.8% 5.4% 4.9% Expansion 1977 6.4% 4.6% 6.7% Carter took office 1978 6.0% 5.5% 9.0% Fed raised rate to 20% to stop inflation 1979 6.0% 3.2% 13.3% 1980 7.2% -0.3% 12.5% Recession 1981 8.5% 2.5% 8.9% Reagan tax cuts; Min. wage $3.35 1982 10.8% -1.8% 3.8% Job Training Partnership Act; Garn-St.Germain Act 1983 8.3% 4.6% 3.8% Reagan increased military spending 1984 7.3% 7.2% 3.9% 1985 7.0% 4.2% 3.8% Expansion 1986 6.6% 3.5% 1.1% Tax cuts 1987 5.7% 3.5% 4.4% Black Monday 1988 5.3% 4.2% 4.4% Fed raised rate 1989 5.4% 3.7% 4.6% Reforms made to address S&L Crisis 1990 6.3% 1.9% 6.1% Recession 1991 7.3% -0.1% 3.1% Desert Storm; Min. wage $4.25 1992 7.4% 3.5% 2.9% NAFTA drafted 1993 6.5% 2.8% 2.7% Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act 1994 5.5% 4.0% 2.7% School to Work Act 1995 5.6% 2.7% 2.5% Expansion 1996 5.4% 3.8% 3.3% Welfare reform 1997 4.7% 4.4% 1.7% Min. wage $5.85 1998 4.4% 4.5% 1.6% LTCM crisis 1999 4.0% 4.8% 2.7% Euro; Serbian airstrike 2000 3.9% 4.1% 3.4% NASDAQ hit record high 2001 5.7% 1.0% 1.6% Bush tax cuts; 9/11 attacks 2002 6.0% 1.7% 2.4% War on Terror 2003 5.7% 2.8% 1.9% JGTRRA 2004 5.4% 3.9% 3.3% Expansion 2005 4.9% 3.5% 3.4% Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention Act; Katrina 2006 4.4% 2.8% 2.5% Expansion 2007 5.0% 2.0% 4.1% 2008 7.3% 0.1% 0.1% Min. wage $6.55; Financial crisis 2009 9.9% -2.6% 2.7% ARRA; Minimum wage $7.25; Jobless benefits extended 2010 9.3% 2.7% 1.5% Obama tax cuts 2011 8.5% 1.5% 3.0% 26 months of job losses by July; Debt ceiling crisis; Iraq War ended 2012 7.9% 2.3% 1.7% QE; 10-year rate at 200-year low; Fiscal cliff 2013 6.7% 1.8% 1.5% Stocks up 30%; Long term = 5% unemployment 2014 5.6% 2.3% 0.8% Unemployment at 2007 levels 2015 5.0% 2.7% 0.7% Natural rate 2016 4.7% 1.7% 2.1% Presidential race 2017 4.1% 2.3% 2.1% Dollar weakened 2018 3.9% 2.9% 1.9% Trump tax cuts 2019 3.6% 2.3% 2.3% Goldilocks economy 2020 6.7% -3.4% 1.4% COVID-19 pandemic and recession 2021 3.9% 5.7% 7.0% COVID-19 pandemic and recovery This year the inflation rate is 8%, highest since 1981. We reached the Goldilocks economy under Trump, but since then it's been bad. |