What happened to this California family?

[Anonymous]

Heat stroke only makes sense to me if I think of it as a domino effect, rather than everyone coincidentally going at the same time.

Dog runs happily down the trail to start the day, but becomes overheated and worn out playing alongside the river. When they start back up the trail, dog is moving more slowly than normal, so the hike stretches more into the heat of the day than planned. This wears on all of them. Dog eventually needs assistance getting up the hill. Mom and Dad are trying to share the heavy lifting (baby and/or dog). When one parent gets too worn out, the other takes a turn. Now the hike is taking even longer, and it's getting hotter. One of the adults starts to show signs of heat stress, so they stop to rest. Both parents are completely spent by now. Dog collapses during the rest period. Parents decide it's time to split up. Dad will stay with the dog, mom will go for help. She knows she won't be able to carry the baby the rest of the way up, so they decide baby will stay with Dad until she can come back with help. Unfortunately, she never does - she only makes it a little way up the trail before she collapses in the heat. Were they close enough for Dad to see her collapse? If it was around a switchback, he may not have realized it, so he sat there for a while waiting for her to send help - not knowing that she hadn't made it. He may have died shortly after, or an hour or more later. Even if a few hours passed, and he started to accept that help wasn't coming, the extra time sitting in direct sun meant he just couldn't get up at that point, especially carrying the baby. Baby would not have survived long with both parents passed out or dead.

The only thing about this scenario that doesn't make any sense at all: they apparently still had water. Maybe they were trying to save it for the baby? And neither of them realized just how bad of shape they were in until it was too late .... if they were still together, when one person started to collapse the other would likely push water on them, but if they had already split up at that point...

I don't know. Family annihilation could make sense too, but it's an odd way to do it. Not sure I buy the toxic algae theory.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Heat stroke only makes sense to me if I think of it as a domino effect, rather than everyone coincidentally going at the same time.

Dog runs happily down the trail to start the day, but becomes overheated and worn out playing alongside the river. When they start back up the trail, dog is moving more slowly than normal, so the hike stretches more into the heat of the day than planned. This wears on all of them. Dog eventually needs assistance getting up the hill. Mom and Dad are trying to share the heavy lifting (baby and/or dog). When one parent gets too worn out, the other takes a turn. Now the hike is taking even longer, and it's getting hotter. One of the adults starts to show signs of heat stress, so they stop to rest. Both parents are completely spent by now. Dog collapses during the rest period. Parents decide it's time to split up. Dad will stay with the dog, mom will go for help. She knows she won't be able to carry the baby the rest of the way up, so they decide baby will stay with Dad until she can come back with help. Unfortunately, she never does - she only makes it a little way up the trail before she collapses in the heat. Were they close enough for Dad to see her collapse? If it was around a switchback, he may not have realized it, so he sat there for a while waiting for her to send help - not knowing that she hadn't made it. He may have died shortly after, or an hour or more later. Even if a few hours passed, and he started to accept that help wasn't coming, the extra time sitting in direct sun meant he just couldn't get up at that point, especially carrying the baby. Baby would not have survived long with both parents passed out or dead.

The only thing about this scenario that doesn't make any sense at all: they apparently still had water. Maybe they were trying to save it for the baby? And neither of them realized just how bad of shape they were in until it was too late .... if they were still together, when one person started to collapse the other would likely push water on them, but if they had already split up at that point...

I don't know. Family annihilation could make sense too, but it's an odd way to do it. Not sure I buy the toxic algae theory.

I just find it so hard to believe that they could be this clueless. Heat stroke is cumulative. They hiked frequently in deserts. They would have known what to look for.

I think it was family annihilation but they wanted it to seem like an accident.

[Anonymous]

It's not that odd to me that they still had drinking water. If the deaths were heat-related they were probably trying to conserve the water while they were still capable of rational thought (again I think they likely planned a short AM hike and something happened to keep them out there longer than expected - sprained ankle, dog overexerts and collapses, any number of things can happen to even experienced outdoorsmen and women and they didn't want to burn through all the water they packed for a short hike). They didn't realize they were in a survival situation until it was too late - at some point you aren't going to be thinking clearly or rationally about the water.

[Anonymous]

I wrote heat stroke yesterday but that makes no sense given their experience. It has to be family annihilation.

Cross the algae theory off for good. That ones makes zero sense. Maybe for one person but no way, no how in a million years for all 3 plus the dog.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's not that odd to me that they still had drinking water. If the deaths were heat-related they were probably trying to conserve the water while they were still capable of rational thought (again I think they likely planned a short AM hike and something happened to keep them out there longer than expected - sprained ankle, dog overexerts and collapses, any number of things can happen to even experienced outdoorsmen and women and they didn't want to burn through all the water they packed for a short hike). They didn't realize they were in a survival situation until it was too late - at some point you aren't going to be thinking clearly or rationally about the water.

Unfortunately, decision-making rapidly deteriorates in conditions like this and even experienced hikers can get themselves into a deadly situation as a result. One of the things experienced hikers do that can actually be worse for their survival is try to self-rescue.

[Anonymous]

How tragic. They looked like such a happy family.

Please don't say that one of them is responsible right now. We have no way of knowing whether that's the case unless more information is released. One of their loved ones or friends could be reading this thread.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Heat stroke only makes sense to me if I think of it as a domino effect, rather than everyone coincidentally going at the same time.

Dog runs happily down the trail to start the day, but becomes overheated and worn out playing alongside the river. When they start back up the trail, dog is moving more slowly than normal, so the hike stretches more into the heat of the day than planned. This wears on all of them. Dog eventually needs assistance getting up the hill. Mom and Dad are trying to share the heavy lifting (baby and/or dog). When one parent gets too worn out, the other takes a turn. Now the hike is taking even longer, and it's getting hotter. One of the adults starts to show signs of heat stress, so they stop to rest. Both parents are completely spent by now. Dog collapses during the rest period. Parents decide it's time to split up. Dad will stay with the dog, mom will go for help. She knows she won't be able to carry the baby the rest of the way up, so they decide baby will stay with Dad until she can come back with help. Unfortunately, she never does - she only makes it a little way up the trail before she collapses in the heat. Were they close enough for Dad to see her collapse? If it was around a switchback, he may not have realized it, so he sat there for a while waiting for her to send help - not knowing that she hadn't made it. He may have died shortly after, or an hour or more later. Even if a few hours passed, and he started to accept that help wasn't coming, the extra time sitting in direct sun meant he just couldn't get up at that point, especially carrying the baby. Baby would not have survived long with both parents passed out or dead.

The only thing about this scenario that doesn't make any sense at all: they apparently still had water. Maybe they were trying to save it for the baby? And neither of them realized just how bad of shape they were in until it was too late .... if they were still together, when one person started to collapse the other would likely push water on them, but if they had already split up at that point...

I don't know. Family annihilation could make sense too, but it's an odd way to do it. Not sure I buy the toxic algae theory.

I just find it so hard to believe that they could be this clueless. Heat stroke is cumulative. They hiked frequently in deserts. They would have known what to look for.

I think it was family annihilation but they wanted it to seem like an accident.

Right, that's the point. Remember that this hike started with a steep downhill, and then they had to hike back up the switchbacks - I think someone said 2000' of elevation gain?? Once it started, it snowballed quickly - even if they realized what was happening, it's not like they had other options than continuing to hike up a steep hill, in the heat and direct sun, with the dog and baby in tow. Once they started to get off their original plan (dog slowed down in my theory posted above, could also be that someone sprained an ankle or something), the cumulative effect went exponential, and they were stuck.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's not that odd to me that they still had drinking water. If the deaths were heat-related they were probably trying to conserve the water while they were still capable of rational thought (again I think they likely planned a short AM hike and something happened to keep them out there longer than expected - sprained ankle, dog overexerts and collapses, any number of things can happen to even experienced outdoorsmen and women and they didn't want to burn through all the water they packed for a short hike). They didn't realize they were in a survival situation until it was too late - at some point you aren't going to be thinking clearly or rationally about the water.

Unfortunately, decision-making rapidly deteriorates in conditions like this and even experienced hikers can get themselves into a deadly situation as a result. One of the things experienced hikers do that can actually be worse for their survival is try to self-rescue.

DP. Agree. I also think the people who find the heatstroke theory implausible are assuming that they all dropped dead at once, and there is no reason to think that. It’s entirely possible that one of them (most likely the dad) wasn’t feeling well. He was in his mid 40s, not thin, and pasty. Could be the heat, a heart issue, who knows. When it’s clear he can’t continue up a steep switchback (1500 feet elevation gain up the remaining 1.5 miles) they maybe waste too much time in the brutal heat panicking about the best way to get him to safety. They decide having him and the baby resting there makes the most sense so she can move fast to get help (the mom is slight and carrying the baby would slow her down if she could carry her that far at all). She puts the baby next to him in the shade of his body (websleuths theory), leaves the dog to guard them, and leaves the remaining water with them. She sprints up the trail to go for help, faints, and that’s the end of the chances for all of them. Dad passes out from heat. Baby can’t escape the carrier, nor dog, who, is tethered to them. Also plausible that dog or baby struggled first and they both tried to sprint the rest of the way home to save them, dad needs to rest because he’s carrying one or both, same outcome.

I think they got overconfident because they thought their hiking experience prepared them for every eventuality.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Heat stroke only makes sense to me if I think of it as a domino effect, rather than everyone coincidentally going at the same time.

Dog runs happily down the trail to start the day, but becomes overheated and worn out playing alongside the river. When they start back up the trail, dog is moving more slowly than normal, so the hike stretches more into the heat of the day than planned. This wears on all of them. Dog eventually needs assistance getting up the hill. Mom and Dad are trying to share the heavy lifting (baby and/or dog). When one parent gets too worn out, the other takes a turn. Now the hike is taking even longer, and it's getting hotter. One of the adults starts to show signs of heat stress, so they stop to rest. Both parents are completely spent by now. Dog collapses during the rest period. Parents decide it's time to split up. Dad will stay with the dog, mom will go for help. She knows she won't be able to carry the baby the rest of the way up, so they decide baby will stay with Dad until she can come back with help. Unfortunately, she never does - she only makes it a little way up the trail before she collapses in the heat. Were they close enough for Dad to see her collapse? If it was around a switchback, he may not have realized it, so he sat there for a while waiting for her to send help - not knowing that she hadn't made it. He may have died shortly after, or an hour or more later. Even if a few hours passed, and he started to accept that help wasn't coming, the extra time sitting in direct sun meant he just couldn't get up at that point, especially carrying the baby. Baby would not have survived long with both parents passed out or dead.

The only thing about this scenario that doesn't make any sense at all: they apparently still had water. Maybe they were trying to save it for the baby? And neither of them realized just how bad of shape they were in until it was too late .... if they were still together, when one person started to collapse the other would likely push water on them, but if they had already split up at that point...

I don't know. Family annihilation could make sense too, but it's an odd way to do it. Not sure I buy the toxic algae theory.

I just find it so hard to believe that they could be this clueless. Heat stroke is cumulative. They hiked frequently in deserts. They would have known what to look for.

I think it was family annihilation but they wanted it to seem like an accident.

Right, that's the point. Remember that this hike started with a steep downhill, and then they had to hike back up the switchbacks - I think someone said 2000' of elevation gain?? Once it started, it snowballed quickly - even if they realized what was happening, it's not like they had other options than continuing to hike up a steep hill, in the heat and direct sun, with the dog and baby in tow. Once they started to get off their original plan (dog slowed down in my theory posted above, could also be that someone sprained an ankle or something), the cumulative effect went exponential, and they were stuck.

Per the alltrails reviews, it's 3 miles back with significant elevation gain and no shade. It would have been brutal.

[Anonymous]

When will we find out more information?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's not that odd to me that they still had drinking water. If the deaths were heat-related they were probably trying to conserve the water while they were still capable of rational thought (again I think they likely planned a short AM hike and something happened to keep them out there longer than expected - sprained ankle, dog overexerts and collapses, any number of things can happen to even experienced outdoorsmen and women and they didn't want to burn through all the water they packed for a short hike). They didn't realize they were in a survival situation until it was too late - at some point you aren't going to be thinking clearly or rationally about the water.

Unfortunately, decision-making rapidly deteriorates in conditions like this and even experienced hikers can get themselves into a deadly situation as a result. One of the things experienced hikers do that can actually be worse for their survival is try to self-rescue.

DP. Agree. I also think the people who find the heatstroke theory implausible are assuming that they all dropped dead at once, and there is no reason to think that. It’s entirely possible that one of them (most likely the dad) wasn’t feeling well. He was in his mid 40s, not thin, and pasty. Could be the heat, a heart issue, who knows. When it’s clear he can’t continue up a steep switchback (1500 feet elevation gain up the remaining 1.5 miles) they maybe waste too much time in the brutal heat panicking about the best way to get him to safety. They decide having him and the baby resting there makes the most sense so she can move fast to get help (the mom is slight and carrying the baby would slow her down if she could carry her that far at all). She puts the baby next to him in the shade of his body (websleuths theory), leaves the dog to guard them, and leaves the remaining water with them. She sprints up the trail to go for help, faints, and that’s the end of the chances for all of them. Dad passes out from heat. Baby can’t escape the carrier, nor dog, who, is tethered to them. Also plausible that dog or baby struggled first and they both tried to sprint the rest of the way home to save them, dad needs to rest because he’s carrying one or both, same outcome.

I think they got overconfident because they thought their hiking experience prepared them for every eventuality.

Then why didn't she take the phone? The phone blows this whole theory to bits. They have the wherewithal to make an exit plan but she forgets the one thing that will enable her to summon help?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Heat stroke only makes sense to me if I think of it as a domino effect, rather than everyone coincidentally going at the same time.

Dog runs happily down the trail to start the day, but becomes overheated and worn out playing alongside the river. When they start back up the trail, dog is moving more slowly than normal, so the hike stretches more into the heat of the day than planned. This wears on all of them. Dog eventually needs assistance getting up the hill. Mom and Dad are trying to share the heavy lifting (baby and/or dog). When one parent gets too worn out, the other takes a turn. Now the hike is taking even longer, and it's getting hotter. One of the adults starts to show signs of heat stress, so they stop to rest. Both parents are completely spent by now. Dog collapses during the rest period. Parents decide it's time to split up. Dad will stay with the dog, mom will go for help. She knows she won't be able to carry the baby the rest of the way up, so they decide baby will stay with Dad until she can come back with help. Unfortunately, she never does - she only makes it a little way up the trail before she collapses in the heat. Were they close enough for Dad to see her collapse? If it was around a switchback, he may not have realized it, so he sat there for a while waiting for her to send help - not knowing that she hadn't made it. He may have died shortly after, or an hour or more later. Even if a few hours passed, and he started to accept that help wasn't coming, the extra time sitting in direct sun meant he just couldn't get up at that point, especially carrying the baby. Baby would not have survived long with both parents passed out or dead.

The only thing about this scenario that doesn't make any sense at all: they apparently still had water. Maybe they were trying to save it for the baby? And neither of them realized just how bad of shape they were in until it was too late .... if they were still together, when one person started to collapse the other would likely push water on them, but if they had already split up at that point...

I don't know. Family annihilation could make sense too, but it's an odd way to do it. Not sure I buy the toxic algae theory.

Blaming the dog is about as ridiculous as blaming the boulder. Maybe it was river water in their canteens. Personally, I am pro toxic algae theory.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's not that odd to me that they still had drinking water. If the deaths were heat-related they were probably trying to conserve the water while they were still capable of rational thought (again I think they likely planned a short AM hike and something happened to keep them out there longer than expected - sprained ankle, dog overexerts and collapses, any number of things can happen to even experienced outdoorsmen and women and they didn't want to burn through all the water they packed for a short hike). They didn't realize they were in a survival situation until it was too late - at some point you aren't going to be thinking clearly or rationally about the water.

Unfortunately, decision-making rapidly deteriorates in conditions like this and even experienced hikers can get themselves into a deadly situation as a result. One of the things experienced hikers do that can actually be worse for their survival is try to self-rescue.

I’m starting to come around to the heat stroke theory too. If it hit the dog first, then it all makes sense. It’s still surprising to me that neither parent could make it 30 minutes back to the car with the baby, but it could happen. So I’m about 50-50 between deliberate poisoning and heat stroke. The gas emission or toxic algae theory seems very unlikely.

[Anonymous]

I’m not going to quote that long explanation but seems very plausible to me. One member started to collapse and brought the whole thing down.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's not that odd to me that they still had drinking water. If the deaths were heat-related they were probably trying to conserve the water while they were still capable of rational thought (again I think they likely planned a short AM hike and something happened to keep them out there longer than expected - sprained ankle, dog overexerts and collapses, any number of things can happen to even experienced outdoorsmen and women and they didn't want to burn through all the water they packed for a short hike). They didn't realize they were in a survival situation until it was too late - at some point you aren't going to be thinking clearly or rationally about the water.

Unfortunately, decision-making rapidly deteriorates in conditions like this and even experienced hikers can get themselves into a deadly situation as a result. One of the things experienced hikers do that can actually be worse for their survival is try to self-rescue.

DP. Agree. I also think the people who find the heatstroke theory implausible are assuming that they all dropped dead at once, and there is no reason to think that. It’s entirely possible that one of them (most likely the dad) wasn’t feeling well. He was in his mid 40s, not thin, and pasty. Could be the heat, a heart issue, who knows. When it’s clear he can’t continue up a steep switchback (1500 feet elevation gain up the remaining 1.5 miles) they maybe waste too much time in the brutal heat panicking about the best way to get him to safety. They decide having him and the baby resting there makes the most sense so she can move fast to get help (the mom is slight and carrying the baby would slow her down if she could carry her that far at all). She puts the baby next to him in the shade of his body (websleuths theory), leaves the dog to guard them, and leaves the remaining water with them. She sprints up the trail to go for help, faints, and that’s the end of the chances for all of them. Dad passes out from heat. Baby can’t escape the carrier, nor dog, who, is tethered to them. Also plausible that dog or baby struggled first and they both tried to sprint the rest of the way home to save them, dad needs to rest because he’s carrying one or both, same outcome.

I think they got overconfident because they thought their hiking experience prepared them for every eventuality.

Then why didn't she take the phone? The phone blows this whole theory to bits. They have the wherewithal to make an exit plan but she forgets the one thing that will enable her to summon help?

I don’t buy this theory but it is possible she left her phone in the car. I do this frequently when going out for a hike if dh has his phone. It would be smart to leave a phone with dad even if there was no service. Perhaps they thought it was just spotty service or it could be used to track his location if necessary.