Concerned about buying in WJ cluster because of re-zoning

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Unfortunately, housing prices are indeed tied to schools. False perceptions or not, people with kids buy based on schools.

Years ago, you didn't see school ratings connected to homes, as the gap wasn't as prevalent and people supported their community schools. Now, however, you enter a site like Redfin, Zillow or Estately, and you'll see school ratings. If you're not familiar with the area, you'll search for homes in communities with high ratings.

Look at 20882, which is Laytonsville/G-burg. There are some very large homes zoned for 2+ acres that are selling in the $600s, which is low considering square footage and lot size.

Unless you have big bucks for private, school reputations are a major factor in determining home prices.

How do you explain South Arlington? Low-ranked schools, but prices have increased well above Silver Spring. I would think Silver Spring could follow a similar trajectory.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Unfortunately, housing prices are indeed tied to schools. False perceptions or not, people with kids buy based on schools.

Years ago, you didn't see school ratings connected to homes, as the gap wasn't as prevalent and people supported their community schools. Now, however, you enter a site like Redfin, Zillow or Estately, and you'll see school ratings. If you're not familiar with the area, you'll search for homes in communities with high ratings.

Look at 20882, which is Laytonsville/G-burg. There are some very large homes zoned for 2+ acres that are selling in the $600s, which is low considering square footage and lot size.

Unless you have big bucks for private, school reputations are a major factor in determining home prices.

How do you explain South Arlington? Low-ranked schools, but prices have increased well above Silver Spring. I would think Silver Spring could follow a similar trajectory.

It will, but many people on this board will claim otherwise. They have a vested interest in the status quo and fear the inevitable.

Also, any serious analysis of school data will show they are remarkably similar to all other MCPS schools. This has been demonstrated numerous times in other threads.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The SAT averages for a single cohort over 5% really illustrates how these schools stack up.

Blair 1326
Churchill 1257
Einstein 1148
Walter Johnson 1275
Wheaton 1173
Wooton 1262

Yes, schools with the <5% (0% to 5%) in a cohort aren't statistically significant.

Although this may only tell part of the story, it does provide some insight into the potential education available at these schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Unfortunately, housing prices are indeed tied to schools. False perceptions or not, people with kids buy based on schools.

Years ago, you didn't see school ratings connected to homes, as the gap wasn't as prevalent and people supported their community schools. Now, however, you enter a site like Redfin, Zillow or Estately, and you'll see school ratings. If you're not familiar with the area, you'll search for homes in communities with high ratings.

Look at 20882, which is Laytonsville/G-burg. There are some very large homes zoned for 2+ acres that are selling in the $600s, which is low considering square footage and lot size.

Unless you have big bucks for private, school reputations are a major factor in determining home prices.

How do you explain South Arlington? Low-ranked schools, but prices have increased well above Silver Spring. I would think Silver Spring could follow a similar trajectory.

Could follow or you think is nice , but that's just speculation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Unfortunately, housing prices are indeed tied to schools. False perceptions or not, people with kids buy based on schools.

Years ago, you didn't see school ratings connected to homes, as the gap wasn't as prevalent and people supported their community schools. Now, however, you enter a site like Redfin, Zillow or Estately, and you'll see school ratings. If you're not familiar with the area, you'll search for homes in communities with high ratings.

Look at 20882, which is Laytonsville/G-burg. There are some very large homes zoned for 2+ acres that are selling in the $600s, which is low considering square footage and lot size.

Unless you have big bucks for private, school reputations are a major factor in determining home prices.

How do you explain South Arlington? Low-ranked schools, but prices have increased well above Silver Spring. I would think Silver Spring could follow a similar trajectory.

I am not familiar with Arlington, but is there north Arlington with better schools? If yes, then do house in north Arlington go at higher price or school doesn't matter for Arlington area?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Unfortunately, housing prices are indeed tied to schools. False perceptions or not, people with kids buy based on schools.

Years ago, you didn't see school ratings connected to homes, as the gap wasn't as prevalent and people supported their community schools. Now, however, you enter a site like Redfin, Zillow or Estately, and you'll see school ratings. If you're not familiar with the area, you'll search for homes in communities with high ratings.

Look at 20882, which is Laytonsville/G-burg. There are some very large homes zoned for 2+ acres that are selling in the $600s, which is low considering square footage and lot size.

Unless you have big bucks for private, school reputations are a major factor in determining home prices.

How do you explain South Arlington? Low-ranked schools, but prices have increased well above Silver Spring. I would think Silver Spring could follow a similar trajectory.

It will, but many people on this board will claim otherwise. They have a vested interest in the status quo and fear the inevitable.

Also, any serious analysis of school data will show they are remarkably similar to all other MCPS schools. This has been demonstrated numerous times in other threads.

Remarkably similar schools and yet house prices vary a lot between RM and Wootton or between WJ and Einstein.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Unfortunately, housing prices are indeed tied to schools. False perceptions or not, people with kids buy based on schools.

Years ago, you didn't see school ratings connected to homes, as the gap wasn't as prevalent and people supported their community schools. Now, however, you enter a site like Redfin, Zillow or Estately, and you'll see school ratings. If you're not familiar with the area, you'll search for homes in communities with high ratings.

Look at 20882, which is Laytonsville/G-burg. There are some very large homes zoned for 2+ acres that are selling in the $600s, which is low considering square footage and lot size.

Unless you have big bucks for private, school reputations are a major factor in determining home prices.

How do you explain South Arlington? Low-ranked schools, but prices have increased well above Silver Spring. I would think Silver Spring could follow a similar trajectory.

It will, but many people on this board will claim otherwise. They have a vested interest in the status quo and fear the inevitable.

Also, any serious analysis of school data will show they are remarkably similar to all other MCPS schools. This has been demonstrated numerous times in other threads.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Unfortunately, housing prices are indeed tied to schools. False perceptions or not, people with kids buy based on schools.

Years ago, you didn't see school ratings connected to homes, as the gap wasn't as prevalent and people supported their community schools. Now, however, you enter a site like Redfin, Zillow or Estately, and you'll see school ratings. If you're not familiar with the area, you'll search for homes in communities with high ratings.

Look at 20882, which is Laytonsville/G-burg. There are some very large homes zoned for 2+ acres that are selling in the $600s, which is low considering square footage and lot size.

Unless you have big bucks for private, school reputations are a major factor in determining home prices.

Einstein shares nothing in common with those of the schools


How do you explain South Arlington? Low-ranked schools, but prices have increased well above Silver Spring. I would think Silver Spring could follow a similar trajectory.

It will, but many people on this board will claim otherwise. They have a vested interest in the status quo and fear the inevitable.

Also, any serious analysis of school data will show they are remarkably similar to all other MCPS schools. This has been demonstrated numerous times in other threads.

Remarkably similar schools and yet house prices vary a lot between RM and Wootton or between WJ and Einstein.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Unfortunately, housing prices are indeed tied to schools. False perceptions or not, people with kids buy based on schools.

Unless you have big bucks for private, school reputations are a major factor in determining home prices.

How do you explain South Arlington? Low-ranked schools, but prices have increased well above Silver Spring. I would think Silver Spring could follow a similar trajectory.

I am not familiar with Arlington, but is there north Arlington with better schools? If yes, then do house in north Arlington go at higher price or school doesn't matter for Arlington area?

School matters. You can still find a few SFH's in the high $500's in S Arlington, which is impossible in N Arlington. The same home in S Arlington that goes for $750k would probably go for a million in N Arlington. That's not true across the board, as there's parts of S Arlington (Penrose, Arlington Ridge, Aurora Highlands) that are just as expensive as n'hoods in the North. But Arlington is a very small county compared to MoCo, and it's as close as you can get to downtown DC w/o living in the District. Even on the west end of Columbia Pike you're only 5 miles from d'town, about half the distance from say the Forest Glen Metro. So people will pay for that proximity. S Arlington schools aren't as highly rated as those in N Arlington, but you also rarely get low ratings across the board: i.e. a 5-6 elementary and middle but 3 for high school. Or 3 for elementary but 6 for middle school, etc. All that said, it is a little weird that Silver Spring hasn't seen the same appreciation as S Arlington - they're more similar than different.

[Anonymous]

I’m confused. SS prices had a huge jump in the years after Discovery was built and haven’t dipped back. Prior to 2003 you could get in my neighborhood for $200K. In 2018 years you can’t really get a move in ready for much under 500K. Many people are adding on which ups the price for when they do sell. Houses in my neighborhood also go pretty fast when they are for sale.

It has gotten significantly more expensive in the last 15 years. It is still much cheaper than Bethesda and parts of Kensington but that doesn’t mean it hasn’t seen appreciation. SS is huge though, so maybe the parts not as close in have not seen appreciation.

[Anonymous]

Yes, housing prices vary a lot between Town of Kensington and the Einstein part of Kensington. Yes, this is due to the fact that ToK kids go to the whiter and wealthier Bethesda schools. Parents in the Einstein part have been trying to explain that theirs is also a good place to raise kids and go to school. The market is not always "right" or reality-based or ethical.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes, housing prices vary a lot between Town of Kensington and the Einstein part of Kensington. Yes, this is due to the fact that ToK kids go to the whiter and wealthier Bethesda schools. Parents in the Einstein part have been trying to explain that theirs is also a good place to raise kids and go to school. The market is not always "right" or reality-based or ethical.

Close in SS is appreciating nicely. Inventory is low and houses go pretty fast. It’s fine that it is still affordable. I like the fed attorneys, scientists, and college professors in my neighborhood. I’m glad I can buy a home for under a million in a nice community. The marker seems reality based to me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Predicted future high school distributions:

WJ/Woodward: Mixture of current WJ plus two DCC elementary school areas and maybe one Whitman school (perhaps Bradley Hills). Will create two very good schools, but not Whitman level.
BCC: Bethesda Elementary, the three Chevy Chase elementaries (CC, NCC, and RCF) and probably Somerset; no appreciable change in test scores from the change (ie remains an extremely strong school, but with some lower scoring demographics included).
Whitman: add Westbrook and maybe Somerset from BCC and cede Bradley Hills to WJ/Woodward. No other changes; cements status as highest scoring MoCo district.
Churchill: no change

I think this is probably right. The only question I have is whether the county will find a way to inject a little diversity into Whitman along the way. I don't see an obvious way to do that, but it does seem to go against what the BoE has been all about to embark on a major change to the HS in and around Bethesda while making the richest, white-est HS even wealthier and whiter than ever while the others (BCC, WJ, and Woodward) include some racial/ethnic/SES diversity.

Diversity will come to Whitman with the Westbard development.

MoCo has to stop trying to bus people into diverse schools and to just have policies to encourage more diversity in housing instead so that people of different income levels live in the same community. Instead they are building teardown McMansion after teardowns McMansion in Bethesda. Why not some subdividing lots with smaller houses too? What about duplexes? The 6000 square foot McMansions take up the entire lot and house four people and a fancy purebred dog max in a space that could house 10-20 people instead.

That will eventually need to happen

It needs to happen NOW. Or yesterday. We have no leadership in this county.

For decades the county built low-income projects up North or East. I agree it's time they show leadership and place all future projects in the Western close-in areas to ensure there is an equitable FARMS distribution @W's.

Nobody who has lived in Bethesda for 20+ years has chosen this lack of diversity. When we moved in the price of a little home in Bethesda was 200k or under and the neighborhoods were diverse in race and nationality (the ymca reminded us of the United Nations) and in family size. There were single people, old people and families all mixed together living here. It used to be that large families would all cram into one of those tiny houses (that maybe had a small addition to cram some of the 8 kids into). Now with the new McMansion houses going up it’s changing to mostly be small families in huge houses. That change has come directly from the county that issues permit after permit for these huge houses with no thought to either preserving some of the smaller homes or to planning some diversity in housing (duplexes, multifamily units).

People here in Bethesda put those stupid ‘hate has no home here’ lawn signs up like they are so liberal and loving but the poorer people who are the subject of those alleged ‘hate’ are not living anywhere near here so those signs are pretty irrelevant.

It’s yome for the county to spread out some of the lower income housing directly into neighborhoods across the county - not just clustered in their own apartment buildings but spread out into neighborhoods in housing. Potomac neighborhoods will sue them , but that’s doubtful across the rest of the region.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Predicted future high school distributions:

WJ/Woodward: Mixture of current WJ plus two DCC elementary school areas and maybe one Whitman school (perhaps Bradley Hills). Will create two very good schools, but not Whitman level.
BCC: Bethesda Elementary, the three Chevy Chase elementaries (CC, NCC, and RCF) and probably Somerset; no appreciable change in test scores from the change (ie remains an extremely strong school, but with some lower scoring demographics included).
Whitman: add Westbrook and maybe Somerset from BCC and cede Bradley Hills to WJ/Woodward. No other changes; cements status as highest scoring MoCo district.
Churchill: no change

I think this is probably right. The only question I have is whether the county will find a way to inject a little diversity into Whitman along the way. I don't see an obvious way to do that, but it does seem to go against what the BoE has been all about to embark on a major change to the HS in and around Bethesda while making the richest, white-est HS even wealthier and whiter than ever while the others (BCC, WJ, and Woodward) include some racial/ethnic/SES diversity.

Diversity will come to Whitman with the Westbard development.

MoCo has to stop trying to bus people into diverse schools and to just have policies to encourage more diversity in housing instead so that people of different income levels live in the same community. Instead they are building teardown McMansion after teardowns McMansion in Bethesda. Why not some subdividing lots with smaller houses too? What about duplexes? The 6000 square foot McMansions take up the entire lot and house four people and a fancy purebred dog max in a space that could house 10-20 people instead.

That will eventually need to happen

It needs to happen NOW. Or yesterday. We have no leadership in this county.

For decades the county built low-income projects up North or East. I agree it's time they show leadership and place all future projects in the Western close-in areas to ensure there is an equitable FARMS distribution @W's.

Clustering low income housing together has meant that gangs can harass people all in one place - threatening people and regularly hitting people up for money . Stupid.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Predicted future high school distributions:

WJ/Woodward: Mixture of current WJ plus two DCC elementary school areas and maybe one Whitman school (perhaps Bradley Hills). Will create two very good schools, but not Whitman level.
BCC: Bethesda Elementary, the three Chevy Chase elementaries (CC, NCC, and RCF) and probably Somerset; no appreciable change in test scores from the change (ie remains an extremely strong school, but with some lower scoring demographics included).
Whitman: add Westbrook and maybe Somerset from BCC and cede Bradley Hills to WJ/Woodward. No other changes; cements status as highest scoring MoCo district.
Churchill: no change

I think this is probably right. The only question I have is whether the county will find a way to inject a little diversity into Whitman along the way. I don't see an obvious way to do that, but it does seem to go against what the BoE has been all about to embark on a major change to the HS in and around Bethesda while making the richest, white-est HS even wealthier and whiter than ever while the others (BCC, WJ, and Woodward) include some racial/ethnic/SES diversity.

Diversity will come to Whitman with the Westbard development.

MoCo has to stop trying to bus people into diverse schools and to just have policies to encourage more diversity in housing instead so that people of different income levels live in the same community. Instead they are building teardown McMansion after teardowns McMansion in Bethesda. Why not some subdividing lots with smaller houses too? What about duplexes? The 6000 square foot McMansions take up the entire lot and house four people and a fancy purebred dog max in a space that could house 10-20 people instead.

That will eventually need to happen

It needs to happen NOW. Or yesterday. We have no leadership in this county.

For decades the county built low-income projects up North or East. I agree it's time they show leadership and place all future projects in the Western close-in areas to ensure there is an equitable FARMS distribution @W's.

Clustering low income housing together has meant that gangs can harass people all in one place - threatening people and regularly hitting people up for money . Stupid.

+1

There shouldn't be a concentration of low income housing. It should be distributed.