DA vs ECNL vs everything else

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When are the ID tryouts for Arlington? The Loudoun phenomenon may not be unique. The player pools are probably not going to get concentrated anywhere.

The smart money is on Arlington U15 DA team next year being 95% the Arlington U14 Red team this year. Regardless of the surprise loss to SAC in the Arlington tournament. Probably the same for next year's Arlington U14 DA team being this year's U13 red team. Might be more movement at the U13 DA pilot level.

^^ meant to add, which is why Spirit is the most break-in-able option for girls not already affiliated with a big club who want to jump to a more competitive team. the Spirit coaches don't have as strong a set of pre-existing biases regarding girls who have been anointed by the club since U8.

Reading posts here about the boys' experience on the main thread, wouldn't Arlington be more then willing to take on any great "outside" player compared to its anointed ones? I thought that was what Arlington parents were all upset about on the boys side 2 years ago? I would hope the tryouts are open, as I have heard many times that the parents there work insanely hard to keep their daughters on Red teams when they should have been displaced long ago. No one has told me the coaches are biased, only that it is hard for them to move players down, but that they will do so for a good outside player at any time. I thought the DA was supposed to be for attracting these outside players? That's the whole purpose of DA, to be a magnet.

And they over-reacted in the other direction with the 2006/2005s being primarily their A team.

But, it's that way in every Club. I'm not knocking them. Tryout fields across the country are pre-seeded. So a kid that develops beautifully doesn't move up the long line of teams from the bottom. They never get a chance to be seen unless they go to a different Club. There is too much parental interference and interaction in our process with the ones making decisions. There is a network of coaches at the big $ Clubs and extends to DA which freezes out kids not affiliated with them. The actual pool of players they look at is quite small and only from their 'feeder system'. This is all because we have a team-based system which isn't good of feasible for developing players, it's about winning games. And, it is possible to do both along the way (develop and eventually begin winning)--but we don't try it in the US- nor do we have the patience. We need results now. Games and leagues don't allow for that fluidity. The mere size of the Clubs and lack of field space doesn't allow for kids to train with other ages because the age groups practice at different times and different places. And, it is all about $$$. In Europe, the $$ comes from developing players that you can sell or make profit for the Club. There is no reason or incentive to develop individual players in the US. And I am not even going to delve into the ability of US coaches to recognize or have the ability to develop talent. That's for another day.

Nothing US Soccer is doing has moved to better player development. Layers and layers of bureaucracy.

#MONEYGRAB

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^ probably depends on the age, right?

Older 05 and 04s perhaps stay intact at ASA, but 06s and 07s lots more potential for some adds. That's the idea, draw them in younger. U13 is not even real DA -- DA-lite basically --and is a draw for U14, the real beginning year. 07s are pre-DA now so that could see the most action.

Again I have to ask from where? Arlington is already the Elephant in the room in that area. Gunston has a relationship with Spirit already so there is that mind-share already. How many kids currently playing for Gunston or Alexandria have already been spurned by Arlington? I mean, if you tried out and didn't make Red at U9 or moved up by U10 how many of those kids are bothering to come back?

There are currently 6 07 teams. That is anywhere from 75-90 kids right there. Gunston by contrast has 2 teams in the 07 age bracket. My guess is, most of those Gunston kids are likely Arlington B team to bubble Red and on down the Arlington food chain as is.

So the draw for Arlington will be certainly larger at the U little rec and U9 ages to get kids into the system leaving fewer kids potentially for neighboring programs. I just don't see many outside kids making any inroads into Arlington past U10.

NP.

Have you seen the girls 07 teams gotsoccer results? They lose.

Gets tiring hearing how Gunston or FPYC would be 2nd team in Arl.

There was no reason to go to Arlington before. Now you have a Girls DA and many surrounding clubs with good players. Also U10 players are an ephemeral thing. Big changes happen between u10 and u13.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When are the ID tryouts for Arlington? The Loudoun phenomenon may not be unique. The player pools are probably not going to get concentrated anywhere.

The smart money is on Arlington U15 DA team next year being 95% the Arlington U14 Red team this year. Regardless of the surprise loss to SAC in the Arlington tournament. Probably the same for next year's Arlington U14 DA team being this year's U13 red team. Might be more movement at the U13 DA pilot level.

^^ meant to add, which is why Spirit is the most break-in-able option for girls not already affiliated with a big club who want to jump to a more competitive team. the Spirit coaches don't have as strong a set of pre-existing biases regarding girls who have been anointed by the club since U8.

The anointing for Club based DA is very strong on the boys' side. The kids that have been with the kid since they started. Other kids don't even get a chance to tryout.

Your confusing a between existing Boys program and a Transition year for girls.

It may be too much to fight the regional dilution due to all the ECNL growth to keep their players for the 2nd Tier, but in a Transition year there could be movement

PP shouldn't think there will be closed ID sessions for the girls side, as there could be local interest from ECNL and Pre-ECNL, and clubs without ECNL.

The #s will be what they will be but I doubt there are any anointed ones. That's a myth. . Coaches would love to poach an ECNLer.

Why would an "ECNLer" leave for Arlington? I believe you are overestimating the draw to Arlington with all of this. Arlington since U9 has already drawn the players who they are going to draw. Kids just don't leave Arlington A teams so leaving ASA is and has been a one way street with very few outside players coming in. Also, DA does have to compete with ECNL, at least initially. Very few ECNL kids, 03 and older are going to leave their current environment at the peak of college recruitment for a spot on a Arlington DA team with an unknown team role. It just isn't going to happen. There will be no BRYC or McLean kids leaving their teams UNLESS they are on the National Team radar and are "encouraged" by US Soccer to join DA.

As far as GDA bringing in younger kids, yes it will, but then they are already at ASA or have been spurned and are unlikely to return. The way Arlington is set up now and with DA going forward it is unlikely to be viewed as favorable destination for outside players.

And lets not forget one small detail here. ASA is NOT a full DA and there is no guarantee that they will be granted a full DA. With that uncertainly it is still possible that kids prefer to start off at a club or remain at club where at least they know they could finish playing without the possibility of aging out of their program as a constant cloud over their head. If you are a 04 outside of Arlington are you going to turn down Spirit or FCV and cross your finger that two things happen?:

1. ASA is granted the U16/17 age group in 2019/20 season
2. DA breaks up the combined age group into just U16 in the 2019/20 season

Those are two big gambles for a current DA or hopeful DA player from the outside to even bother with Arlington.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^ probably depends on the age, right?

Older 05 and 04s perhaps stay intact at ASA, but 06s and 07s lots more potential for some adds. That's the idea, draw them in younger. U13 is not even real DA -- DA-lite basically --and is a draw for U14, the real beginning year. 07s are pre-DA now so that could see the most action.

Again I have to ask from where? Arlington is already the Elephant in the room in that area. Gunston has a relationship with Spirit already so there is that mind-share already. How many kids currently playing for Gunston or Alexandria have already been spurned by Arlington? I mean, if you tried out and didn't make Red at U9 or moved up by U10 how many of those kids are bothering to come back?

There are currently 6 07 teams. That is anywhere from 75-90 kids right there. Gunston by contrast has 2 teams in the 07 age bracket. My guess is, most of those Gunston kids are likely Arlington B team to bubble Red and on down the Arlington food chain as is.

So the draw for Arlington will be certainly larger at the U little rec and U9 ages to get kids into the system leaving fewer kids potentially for neighboring programs. I just don't see many outside kids making any inroads into Arlington past U10.

from VDA? yes, too many clubs

If kids from VDA are considering trying out for Arlington or other DAs then that is a pretty good barometer for DA eventually relegating ECNL to second tier.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^ probably depends on the age, right?

Older 05 and 04s perhaps stay intact at ASA, but 06s and 07s lots more potential for some adds. That's the idea, draw them in younger. U13 is not even real DA -- DA-lite basically --and is a draw for U14, the real beginning year. 07s are pre-DA now so that could see the most action.

Again I have to ask from where? Arlington is already the Elephant in the room in that area. Gunston has a relationship with Spirit already so there is that mind-share already. How many kids currently playing for Gunston or Alexandria have already been spurned by Arlington? I mean, if you tried out and didn't make Red at U9 or moved up by U10 how many of those kids are bothering to come back?

There are currently 6 07 teams. That is anywhere from 75-90 kids right there. Gunston by contrast has 2 teams in the 07 age bracket. My guess is, most of those Gunston kids are likely Arlington B team to bubble Red and on down the Arlington food chain as is.

So the draw for Arlington will be certainly larger at the U little rec and U9 ages to get kids into the system leaving fewer kids potentially for neighboring programs. I just don't see many outside kids making any inroads into Arlington past U10.

from VDA? yes, too many clubs

If kids from VDA are considering trying out for Arlington or other DAs then that is a pretty good barometer for DA eventually relegating ECNL to second tier.

One of top VDA kids at the 03 level has already moved from the DA to ECNL with BRYC ................

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^ probably depends on the age, right?

Older 05 and 04s perhaps stay intact at ASA, but 06s and 07s lots more potential for some adds. That's the idea, draw them in younger. U13 is not even real DA -- DA-lite basically --and is a draw for U14, the real beginning year. 07s are pre-DA now so that could see the most action.

Again I have to ask from where? Arlington is already the Elephant in the room in that area. Gunston has a relationship with Spirit already so there is that mind-share already. How many kids currently playing for Gunston or Alexandria have already been spurned by Arlington? I mean, if you tried out and didn't make Red at U9 or moved up by U10 how many of those kids are bothering to come back?

There are currently 6 07 teams. That is anywhere from 75-90 kids right there. Gunston by contrast has 2 teams in the 07 age bracket. My guess is, most of those Gunston kids are likely Arlington B team to bubble Red and on down the Arlington food chain as is.

So the draw for Arlington will be certainly larger at the U little rec and U9 ages to get kids into the system leaving fewer kids potentially for neighboring programs. I just don't see many outside kids making any inroads into Arlington past U10.

from VDA? yes, too many clubs

If kids from VDA are considering trying out for Arlington or other DAs then that is a pretty good barometer for DA eventually relegating ECNL to second tier.

One of top VDA kids at the 03 level has already moved from the DA to ECNL with BRYC ................

That sounds like more of an act of moving to either a better or a more convenient team or both.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When are the ID tryouts for Arlington? The Loudoun phenomenon may not be unique. The player pools are probably not going to get concentrated anywhere.

The smart money is on Arlington U15 DA team next year being 95% the Arlington U14 Red team this year. Regardless of the surprise loss to SAC in the Arlington tournament. Probably the same for next year's Arlington U14 DA team being this year's U13 red team. Might be more movement at the U13 DA pilot level.

^^ meant to add, which is why Spirit is the most break-in-able option for girls not already affiliated with a big club who want to jump to a more competitive team. the Spirit coaches don't have as strong a set of pre-existing biases regarding girls who have been anointed by the club since U8.

The anointing for Club based DA is very strong on the boys' side. The kids that have been with the kid since they started. Other kids don't even get a chance to tryout.

Your confusing a between existing Boys program and a Transition year for girls.

It may be too much to fight the regional dilution due to all the ECNL growth to keep their players for the 2nd Tier, but in a Transition year there could be movement

PP shouldn't think there will be closed ID sessions for the girls side, as there could be local interest from ECNL and Pre-ECNL, and clubs without ECNL.

The #s will be what they will be but I doubt there are any anointed ones. That's a myth. . Coaches would love to poach an ECNLer.

Why would an "ECNLer" leave for Arlington? I believe you are overestimating the draw to Arlington with all of this. Arlington since U9 has already drawn the players who they are going to draw. Kids just don't leave Arlington A teams so leaving ASA is and has been a one way street with very few outside players coming in. Also, DA does have to compete with ECNL, at least initially. Very few ECNL kids, 03 and older are going to leave their current environment at the peak of college recruitment for a spot on a Arlington DA team with an unknown team role. It just isn't going to happen. There will be no BRYC or McLean kids leaving their teams UNLESS they are on the National Team radar and are "encouraged" by US Soccer to join DA.

As far as GDA bringing in younger kids, yes it will, but then they are already at ASA or have been spurned and are unlikely to return. The way Arlington is set up now and with DA going forward it is unlikely to be viewed as favorable destination for outside players.

And lets not forget one small detail here. ASA is NOT a full DA and there is no guarantee that they will be granted a full DA. With that uncertainly it is still possible that kids prefer to start off at a club or remain at club where at least they know they could finish playing without the possibility of aging out of their program as a constant cloud over their head. If you are a 04 outside of Arlington are you going to turn down Spirit or FCV and cross your finger that two things happen?:

1. ASA is granted the U16/17 age group in 2019/20 season
2. DA breaks up the combined age group into just U16 in the 2019/20 season

Those are two big gambles for a current DA or hopeful DA player from the outside to even bother with Arlington.

Not OP, but some agreement, but some not; basic answer is because ASA is an extremely successful club with often winning teams, granted not the 2007s, and admittedly winning and team building at the price of development, that just got three girls DA age groups and no one else has that, and this will change things over time like other regions in the US. There will be movement because of DA there, and ideally a shift toward development. I know you are at WS, and that is a great choice for a lot, but it is not the only choice and some will choose ASA when they would have otherwise gone to WS, and ECNL will slowly become a good league for the players that really want high school soccer and not college soccer which will be where WS and ASA and FCV provide the players. Eventually.

[Anonymous]

^^PP

Because the club is already so large and it’s A teams are generally always competitive as is I just don’t see ASA drawing more from the outside than they already were. They’ve already had these kids in the pipeline all along, and like Loudoun, would lose a few to ECNL but would by and large retain many of their players. So DA for ASA will mostly act as a retention tool but few outside kids will likely never get a real shot.

[Anonymous]

This discussion between Spirit and Arlington will be where do players from McLean and Vienna go. Traffic patterns different, but distances similar from parts of those zips.

Eventually those that are after GDA will go to one destination or the other, especially the rising 13Us. 08s probably want out of McLean anyway, so give DA some time.

Spirit is a big draw with its younger players and great coaches, and Arlington has always had a better run program compared to MYS and VYS, both of which have always had issues with coaches, BODs, etc.

[Anonymous]

Loudoun ECNL will be average to below. Top Loudoun kids going to FCV DA. A few good kids will get left out of FCV DA and either tryout for WS DA or Loudoun ECNL.

Mclean, BRYC, and VDA will be fine because they are geographical separated.

This is a big issue for WS IMO. They are surrounded by 2 decent ECNL clubs (Mclean and BRYC) who are successfully retaining their players. If WS could draw those kids they would be the big dog on campus.

Arlington will be Arlington. They will not really draw any additional kids...BUT those Arlington kids currently elsewhere may come back home...Which again...could be another problem for WS

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Loudoun ECNL will be average to below. Top Loudoun kids going to FCV DA. A few good kids will get left out of FCV DA and either tryout for WS DA or Loudoun ECNL.

Mclean, BRYC, and VDA will be fine because they are geographical separated.

This is a big issue for WS IMO. They are surrounded by 2 decent ECNL clubs (Mclean and BRYC) who are successfully retaining their players. If WS could draw those kids they would be the big dog on campus.

Arlington will be Arlington. They will not really draw any additional kids...BUT those Arlington kids currently elsewhere may come back home...Which again...could be another problem for WS

Loudoun will likely retain many of its players going forward with ECNL. They never lost large numbers before without anything but State Cup promises before so I only see more kids staying the course at Loudoun.

If ECNL does become a legitimate number 2 league then Spirit is in a pretty good location to draw talent. The wildcard is FCV. If Loudoun retains their players at a different rate than before that cuts into FCVs overall pool.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:^^PP

Because the club is already so large and it’s A teams are generally always competitive as is I just don’t see ASA drawing more from the outside than they already were. They’ve already had these kids in the pipeline all along, and like Loudoun, would lose a few to ECNL but would by and large retain many of their players. So DA for ASA will mostly act as a retention tool but few outside kids will likely never get a real shot.

I do not think so. DA only wants the top one or two players from each club’s age group. They will pull from DC(most of those top girls try out for BSC or Rush at u12), Alexandria ...well all surrounding counties/cities. There are a lot of clubs. They may even draw from lower Montgomery Co. Even some of the smaller clubs will have a player or two that could displace an arlington player. Maybe the top three players are safe but after that all bets are off.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Loudoun ECNL will be average to below. Top Loudoun kids going to FCV DA. A few good kids will get left out of FCV DA and either tryout for WS DA or Loudoun ECNL.

Mclean, BRYC, and VDA will be fine because they are geographical separated.

This is a big issue for WS IMO. They are surrounded by 2 decent ECNL clubs (Mclean and BRYC) who are successfully retaining their players. If WS could draw those kids they would be the big dog on campus.

Arlington will be Arlington. They will not really draw any additional kids...BUT those Arlington kids currently elsewhere may come back home...Which again...could be another problem for WS

Arl. already has several Mclean girls on the U9s and with DevAcad more will come ......

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^PP

Because the club is already so large and it’s A teams are generally always competitive as is I just don’t see ASA drawing more from the outside than they already were. They’ve already had these kids in the pipeline all along, and like Loudoun, would lose a few to ECNL but would by and large retain many of their players. So DA for ASA will mostly act as a retention tool but few outside kids will likely never get a real shot.

I do not think so. DA only wants the top one or two players from each club’s age group. They will pull from DC(most of those top girls try out for BSC or Rush at u12), Alexandria ...well all surrounding counties/cities. There are a lot of clubs. They may even draw from lower Montgomery Co. Even some of the smaller clubs will have a player or two that could displace an arlington player. Maybe the top three players are safe but after that all bets are off.

+1
Good location to drive to against traffick at practice time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Loudoun ECNL will be average to below. Top Loudoun kids going to FCV DA. A few good kids will get left out of FCV DA and either tryout for WS DA or Loudoun ECNL.

Mclean, BRYC, and VDA will be fine because they are geographical separated.

This is a big issue for WS IMO. They are surrounded by 2 decent ECNL clubs (Mclean and BRYC) who are successfully retaining their players. If WS could draw those kids they would be the big dog on campus.

Arlington will be Arlington. They will not really draw any additional kids...BUT those Arlington kids currently elsewhere may come back home...Which again...could be another problem for WS

There aren't many Arlington kids on Washington Spirit VA, at least not at the U14 or U15 ages. Maybe one or two. Same with BRYC, maybe one or two girls at those ages went to Wash Spirit.