MoCo isn’t moving forward, despite MD going to Phase 2

[Anonymous]

Let’s look at the data in terms of how reopening has impacted cases and deaths. The NYTimes has a helpful tracker that shows when restrictions were lifted and the 7-day average in cases (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-coronavirus&variant=show®ion=TOP_BANNER&context=storylines_menu)

States that have reopened and seen a spike in cases and deaths:

North Carolina

States that have reopened and seen a spike in cases, but not deaths:

South Carolina
Texas
Utah

As far as I can tell, no one else has seen a spike in cases or deaths. So the question is really what is happening in North Carolina.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

MoCo was recently warned about its credit rating, and the amount of money MoCo has to spend on servicing its debt keeps going up. But continue to stick your head in the clouds and keep electing insane liberals like Elrich who'll continue to increase taxes, drive businesses under, and gut the county. MoCo has had anemic economic growth for almost a decade now and has lost out on all sorts of big employers moving in because it is so bad doing business in MoCo. Stop with the excuses. MoCo is in steep decline.

Not a Montgomery County resident^^^

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So many of his metrics are 3 day averages, which is just nonsense especially when you have a 3 day weekend and then there are spikes. There are data spikes for different reasons. Just look at the trend line and you will see that on many of the metrics we are more than 14 days.

Hogan says Elrich doesn't understand his own data.

Oh, and MD released Nursing Home data which they do every week on Wednesday. 64 % of the deaths in Moco are nursing homes. over 60% over the last reporting period were nursing homes. These places can be contained with the MD state efforts - extra staff, PPE, etc - if Moco uses it. Of course, Elrich's side kick Gayles said less than 10% of the deaths were nursing homes.

He said less than 10% of cases were nursing homes. At least when I was listening.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So many of his metrics are 3 day averages, which is just nonsense especially when you have a 3 day weekend and then there are spikes. There are data spikes for different reasons. Just look at the trend line and you will see that on many of the metrics we are more than 14 days.

Hogan says Elrich doesn't understand his own data.

Oh, and MD released Nursing Home data which they do every week on Wednesday. 64 % of the deaths in Moco are nursing homes. over 60% over the last reporting period were nursing homes. These places can be contained with the MD state efforts - extra staff, PPE, etc - if Moco uses it. Of course, Elrich's side kick Gayles said less than 10% of the deaths were nursing homes.

He said less than 10% of cases were nursing homes. At least when I was listening.

Yep. He refused to acknowledge the deaths beyond saying, “yes we know many of the deaths are in nursing homes.” No actual number and no sense of what they’re doing about it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Do you want businesses open now or schools open in the fall? Which one is more aligned with the long term social and economic health of our community? You can't have both.

Opening businesses now will lead to higher community transmission in the fall, meaning schools will not be able to open or will rapidly close. Or, we could take advantage of the weather effect and drive community transmission down far enough that we can actually do testing and contact tracing to contain the inevitable increases in the fall.

Eh I don’t know about that. None of the states that have reopened businesses have seen cases and deaths increase. Some have had cases increase, but not deaths, and they’ve been open long enough that you’d see a death increase by this point.

I am talking about schools not being able to open in the fall, not immediate spikes in cases or deaths.

The country could spend money to keep businesses solvent, if we had the political will. We can't spend money to replace in person instruction for the children who will be hurt the most by missing 1.5+ years. We will pay for it later, in subtler ways.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Do you want businesses open now or schools open in the fall? Which one is more aligned with the long term social and economic health of our community? You can't have both.

Opening businesses now will lead to higher community transmission in the fall, meaning schools will not be able to open or will rapidly close. Or, we could take advantage of the weather effect and drive community transmission down far enough that we can actually do testing and contact tracing to contain the inevitable increases in the fall.

Eh I don’t know about that. None of the states that have reopened businesses have seen cases and deaths increase. Some have had cases increase, but not deaths, and they’ve been open long enough that you’d see a death increase by this point.

I am talking about schools not being able to open in the fall, not immediate spikes in cases or deaths.

The country could spend money to keep businesses solvent, if we had the political will. We can't spend money to replace in person instruction for the children who will be hurt the most by missing 1.5+ years. We will pay for it later, in subtler ways.

So you think that, after 2 months or so of no spikes, we’ll suddenly have them in the fall?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

MoCo was recently warned about its credit rating, and the amount of money MoCo has to spend on servicing its debt keeps going up. But continue to stick your head in the clouds and keep electing insane liberals like Elrich who'll continue to increase taxes, drive businesses under, and gut the county. MoCo has had anemic economic growth for almost a decade now and has lost out on all sorts of big employers moving in because it is so bad doing business in MoCo. Stop with the excuses. MoCo is in steep decline.

Not a Montgomery County resident^^^

Montgomery County resident in denial ^^^

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Do you want businesses open now or schools open in the fall? Which one is more aligned with the long term social and economic health of our community? You can't have both.

Opening businesses now will lead to higher community transmission in the fall, meaning schools will not be able to open or will rapidly close. Or, we could take advantage of the weather effect and drive community transmission down far enough that we can actually do testing and contact tracing to contain the inevitable increases in the fall.

Eh I don’t know about that. None of the states that have reopened businesses have seen cases and deaths increase. Some have had cases increase, but not deaths, and they’ve been open long enough that you’d see a death increase by this point.

I am talking about schools not being able to open in the fall, not immediate spikes in cases or deaths.

The country could spend money to keep businesses solvent, if we had the political will. We can't spend money to replace in person instruction for the children who will be hurt the most by missing 1.5+ years. We will pay for it later, in subtler ways.

So you think that, after 2 months or so of no spikes, we’ll suddenly have them in the fall?

Yes, because weather will cool, we'll have more circulating virus than we did in Feb-March, and I'm not impressed by our ability to contact trace and contain cases.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Do you want businesses open now or schools open in the fall? Which one is more aligned with the long term social and economic health of our community? You can't have both.

Opening businesses now will lead to higher community transmission in the fall, meaning schools will not be able to open or will rapidly close. Or, we could take advantage of the weather effect and drive community transmission down far enough that we can actually do testing and contact tracing to contain the inevitable increases in the fall.

Eh I don’t know about that. None of the states that have reopened businesses have seen cases and deaths increase. Some have had cases increase, but not deaths, and they’ve been open long enough that you’d see a death increase by this point.

I am talking about schools not being able to open in the fall, not immediate spikes in cases or deaths.

The country could spend money to keep businesses solvent, if we had the political will. We can't spend money to replace in person instruction for the children who will be hurt the most by missing 1.5+ years. We will pay for it later, in subtler ways.

So you think that, after 2 months or so of no spikes, we’ll suddenly have them in the fall?

Yes, because weather will cool, we'll have more circulating virus than we did in Feb-March, and I'm not impressed by our ability to contact trace and contain cases.

We can contact trace 1,000 cases a day in MD now and we continue to expand those abilities. I am confident we’ll be able to contact trace whatever cases come about in the fall.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Do you want businesses open now or schools open in the fall? Which one is more aligned with the long term social and economic health of our community? You can't have both.

Opening businesses now will lead to higher community transmission in the fall, meaning schools will not be able to open or will rapidly close. Or, we could take advantage of the weather effect and drive community transmission down far enough that we can actually do testing and contact tracing to contain the inevitable increases in the fall.

Eh I don’t know about that. None of the states that have reopened businesses have seen cases and deaths increase. Some have had cases increase, but not deaths, and they’ve been open long enough that you’d see a death increase by this point.

I am talking about schools not being able to open in the fall, not immediate spikes in cases or deaths.

The country could spend money to keep businesses solvent, if we had the political will. We can't spend money to replace in person instruction for the children who will be hurt the most by missing 1.5+ years. We will pay for it later, in subtler ways.

So you think that, after 2 months or so of no spikes, we’ll suddenly have them in the fall?

Yes, because weather will cool, we'll have more circulating virus than we did in Feb-March, and I'm not impressed by our ability to contact trace and contain cases.

We can contact trace 1,000 cases a day in MD now and we continue to expand those abilities. I am confident we’ll be able to contact trace whatever cases come about in the fall.

Look, I'm in fairly in the "reopen MoCo" camp, but I try to be realistic. Contact tracing is going to be of limited effectiveness of people aren't practicing social distancing. There would simply be far too many potential exposures otherwise.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He is trying to keep everyone safe and well. It makes complete sense. I fully respect him for doing it.

I agree, we are unfortunately just not ready.

I agree too. I hope he remains cautious despite the vocal minority of openers.

Serious question: what would make you feel safe to open? If we had a clearer understanding of what we are waiting for, we would find it easier to wait.

Exactly. Elrich and Gayles have given zero sense of the benchmarks needed to go to Phase 2, despite the fact that the dashboard looks quite good.

Good lord. Bunch of whiners. If you don't like how they are performing, run for the office. Until then, it's their call.

Why do I suspect the PP wouldn't say the same thing about the decisions of a certain incompetent president...

[Anonymous]

Elrich hates small business or anyone else not beholden to the govt.

It’s really that simple. Nothing more.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Do you want businesses open now or schools open in the fall? Which one is more aligned with the long term social and economic health of our community? You can't have both.

Opening businesses now will lead to higher community transmission in the fall, meaning schools will not be able to open or will rapidly close. Or, we could take advantage of the weather effect and drive community transmission down far enough that we can actually do testing and contact tracing to contain the inevitable increases in the fall.

Eh I don’t know about that. None of the states that have reopened businesses have seen cases and deaths increase. Some have had cases increase, but not deaths, and they’ve been open long enough that you’d see a death increase by this point.

I am talking about schools not being able to open in the fall, not immediate spikes in cases or deaths.

The country could spend money to keep businesses solvent, if we had the political will. We can't spend money to replace in person instruction for the children who will be hurt the most by missing 1.5+ years. We will pay for it later, in subtler ways.

So you think that, after 2 months or so of no spikes, we’ll suddenly have them in the fall?

Yes, because weather will cool, we'll have more circulating virus than we did in Feb-March, and I'm not impressed by our ability to contact trace and contain cases.

We can contact trace 1,000 cases a day in MD now and we continue to expand those abilities. I am confident we’ll be able to contact trace whatever cases come about in the fall.

Look, I'm in fairly in the "reopen MoCo" camp, but I try to be realistic. Contact tracing is going to be of limited effectiveness of people aren't practicing social distancing. There would simply be far too many potential exposures otherwise.

If your standard for reopening is that we need to be able to contact trace every case, we won’t reopen until there’s a vaccine. I am not advocating for no more social distancing. I’m advocating for MoCo going to Phase 2.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Do you want businesses open now or schools open in the fall? Which one is more aligned with the long term social and economic health of our community? You can't have both.

Opening businesses now will lead to higher community transmission in the fall, meaning schools will not be able to open or will rapidly close. Or, we could take advantage of the weather effect and drive community transmission down far enough that we can actually do testing and contact tracing to contain the inevitable increases in the fall.

Eh I don’t know about that. None of the states that have reopened businesses have seen cases and deaths increase. Some have had cases increase, but not deaths, and they’ve been open long enough that you’d see a death increase by this point.

I am talking about schools not being able to open in the fall, not immediate spikes in cases or deaths.

The country could spend money to keep businesses solvent, if we had the political will. We can't spend money to replace in person instruction for the children who will be hurt the most by missing 1.5+ years. We will pay for it later, in subtler ways.

So you think that, after 2 months or so of no spikes, we’ll suddenly have them in the fall?

Yes, because weather will cool, we'll have more circulating virus than we did in Feb-March, and I'm not impressed by our ability to contact trace and contain cases.

We can contact trace 1,000 cases a day in MD now and we continue to expand those abilities. I am confident we’ll be able to contact trace whatever cases come about in the fall.

Look, I'm in fairly in the "reopen MoCo" camp, but I try to be realistic. Contact tracing is going to be of limited effectiveness of people aren't practicing social distancing. There would simply be far too many potential exposures otherwise.

If your standard for reopening is that we need to be able to contact trace every case, we won’t reopen until there’s a vaccine. I am not advocating for no more social distancing. I’m advocating for MoCo going to Phase 2.

All I was trying to say is that I don't think contact tracing is going to prevent a second wave, assuming we open things up before the fall.

I'm certainly not saying that to argue that we should keep things closed.

[Anonymous]

What part of "MoCo is a hot spot" do you people NOT understand? It would be incredibly irresponsible or Erlich to open up more.