Reply to MoCo isn’t moving forward, despite MD going to Phase 2

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Reply to "MoCo isn’t moving forward, despite MD going to Phase 2"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Do you want businesses open now or schools open in the fall? Which one is more aligned with the long term social and economic health of our community? You can't have both.

Opening businesses now will lead to higher community transmission in the fall, meaning schools will not be able to open or will rapidly close. Or, we could take advantage of the weather effect and drive community transmission down far enough that we can actually do testing and contact tracing to contain the inevitable increases in the fall. [/quote]

Eh I don’t know about that. None of the states that have reopened businesses have seen cases and deaths increase. Some have had cases increase, but not deaths, and they’ve been open long enough that you’d see a death increase by this point.[/quote]

I am talking about schools not being able to open in the fall, not immediate spikes in cases or deaths.

The country could spend money to keep businesses solvent, if we had the political will. We can't spend money to replace in person instruction for the children who will be hurt the most by missing 1.5+ years. We will pay for it later, in subtler ways. [/quote]

So you think that, after 2 months or so of no spikes, we’ll suddenly have them in the fall? [/quote]

Yes, because weather will cool, we'll have more circulating virus than we did in Feb-March, and I'm not impressed by our ability to contact trace and contain cases. [/quote]

We can contact trace 1,000 cases a day in MD now and we continue to expand those abilities. I am confident we’ll be able to contact trace whatever cases come about in the fall. [/quote]

Look, I'm in fairly in the "reopen MoCo" camp, but I try to be realistic. Contact tracing is going to be of limited effectiveness of people aren't practicing social distancing.  There would simply be far too many potential exposures otherwise.[/quote]

If your standard for reopening is that we need to be able to contact trace every case, we won’t reopen until there’s a vaccine. I am not advocating for no more social distancing. I’m advocating for MoCo going to Phase 2.[/quote]

All I was trying to say is that I don't think contact tracing is going to prevent a second wave, assuming we open things up before the fall.

I'm certainly not saying that to argue that we should keep things closed.  [/quote]

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