Will Montgomery County ever recover?

[Anonymous]

Gs ratings aren’t comparable state to state.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just looking at the appreciation forecasts for Arlington and Fairfax and feeling very depressed. If you had told me 15 years ago that houses would be selling for over 1M in Falls Church I would have never believed it. Our decision to move to Montgomery County over Falls Church or Arlington has probably cost us 600K-800K in lost opportunity equity. We were really on the fence at the time but thought that there was more room for appreciation in Montgomery County.

Is there any chance that things will flip around or will Montgomery County be stagnant or dropping for another 10 years?

I would take quality of life over home appreciation anytime. This is why chose to live in MoCo over NoVa. The quality of life in NoVa is horrible. I don’t want to raise my family around rednecks just because my house would appreciate by a few more bucks.
Your home is primarily a place to live. If your financial success depends on your home appreciation, you are doing it wrong and you are going to lose badly.
Remember this: Your primary home will never make you rich. A bad place to live will ruin your life and happiness.
Enjoy you happiness in one of the best places to live in the country (MoCo)

Where are these rednecks in NoVA? Or - are you comparing all of Northern Virginia, which includes Stafford, Culpeper, etc, with just Montgomery County, the wealthiest single county in "southern maryland" and excluding places like PG, Anne Arundel, etc, where there are definitely no "rednecks" or otherwise undesirable to you people?

Whatever makes you feel better I guess.

[Anonymous]

https://www.niche.com/k12/mclean-high-school-mclean-va/
Average SAT score: 1330
Graduation rate: 94%

https://www.niche.com/k12/richard-montgomery-high-school-rockville-md/academics/
Average SAT score: 1330
Graduation Rate: 92%

And that's basically the best high school in Northern VA aside from TJ.

[Anonymous]

How did this get to school rating in a talk about MoCo.

First when you look at ratings in any state you have to remove all Private Schools and all Magnet schools. Only public schools should be considered. The diversity also has an affect.

It is hard to believe since I am an old fart but I graduated a Public School at the time that was rated number one in the United States. Straight up. We send kids to Harvard left and right and had multiple 1,600 SAT scores. BUT my town was 99 percent rich. I lived in a tiny pocket of smaller homes. My town was 86% Jewish and the majority of Parents very wealth and many Doctors, Scientists, PhDs. They could pay for unlimited tutoring, review courses. And everyone went to best College they got into as money no object. And my town school taxes were 100 percent funded by my town. We did not share with neighboring towns. So the rich parents had no problem at all paying much higher taxes.

My kids then went to another great set of schools. My old Public HS my kids went to was 97 percent white. Zero Imigrants basically, zero non-english speakers. Even in MoCo the English scores are an issue we did not have them. We also paid teachers way more and go the best, all teachers made above 100K and some like the principal made 450K a year in a HS. We got the best.

Considering MoCo pays squat to teachers, some students barely speak English and Rich towns are not allowed to take their share of property taxes and pour it into their own HS it is amazing Churchill and Whitman are so great

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How did this get to school rating in a talk about MoCo.

First when you look at ratings in any state you have to remove all Private Schools and all Magnet schools. Only public schools should be considered. The diversity also has an affect.

It is hard to believe since I am an old fart but I graduated a Public School at the time that was rated number one in the United States. Straight up. We send kids to Harvard left and right and had multiple 1,600 SAT scores. BUT my town was 99 percent rich. I lived in a tiny pocket of smaller homes. My town was 86% Jewish and the majority of Parents very wealth and many Doctors, Scientists, PhDs. They could pay for unlimited tutoring, review courses. And everyone went to best College they got into as money no object. And my town school taxes were 100 percent funded by my town. We did not share with neighboring towns. So the rich parents had no problem at all paying much higher taxes.

My kids then went to another great set of schools. My old Public HS my kids went to was 97 percent white. Zero Imigrants basically, zero non-english speakers. Even in MoCo the English scores are an issue we did not have them. We also paid teachers way more and go the best, all teachers made above 100K and some like the principal made 450K a year in a HS. We got the best.

Considering MoCo pays squat to teachers, some students barely speak English and Rich towns are not allowed to take their share of property taxes and pour it into their own HS it is amazing Churchill and Whitman are so great

It went to test scores and schools almost immediately because people equate that to "Montgomery County is failing". The truth is, Montgomery County housing prices are appreciating slower than northern VA but that does not mean it's failing. Most counties in this country would love to be where MoCo is. Yes it has challenges but prices are not in free-fall and will not be. Most job creation is in Virginia since it's more business friendly but you can buy a nice house in a nice school district for hundreds of thousands less in Montgomery County when compared to Northern VA. The schools on greatschools are based on state averages so it's not really apple-to-apple comparisons, you have to look at standardized scores like SAT's that everyone takes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just looking at the appreciation forecasts for Arlington and Fairfax and feeling very depressed. If you had told me 15 years ago that houses would be selling for over 1M in Falls Church I would have never believed it. Our decision to move to Montgomery County over Falls Church or Arlington has probably cost us 600K-800K in lost opportunity equity. We were really on the fence at the time but thought that there was more room for appreciation in Montgomery County.

Is there any chance that things will flip around or will Montgomery County be stagnant or dropping for another 10 years?

Montgomery County is undervalued now because most of the investors are chasing the Amazon hype. There are still a lot of deals to be had close to Metro stations that are near the Beltway. You can still buy SFHs near Forest Glen for under $500,000. That’s a steal for being a 20 minute Metro ride from DC, which is still the main economic driver in the area and always will be despite what VA boosters will tell you. NoVA prices can only go up so far, especially in bad school districts like South Arlington and Alexandria. Houses zoned for TC Williams will not get that far over houses zoned for Einstein, for example, when Einstein is a 5/10 to TC’s 2/10.

The Purple Line is a game changer as well. Let’s revisit this thread when it opens in 2-3 years. Anything near a Purple Line station between Silver Spring and Bethesda is a great buy.

Regardless of what happens, worst case scenario is that close in MoCo appreciates at a slower pace than DC or Arlington but still outpaces the rest of the nation. People need a place to live and prices are going to be SF levels around here in 5-10 years. Anywhere near public transit is a good buy, no matter what county.

What makes you think so? I think it be used more by folks in PG to get to jobs in MC rather than the reverse.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just looking at the appreciation forecasts for Arlington and Fairfax and feeling very depressed. If you had told me 15 years ago that houses would be selling for over 1M in Falls Church I would have never believed it. Our decision to move to Montgomery County over Falls Church or Arlington has probably cost us 600K-800K in lost opportunity equity. We were really on the fence at the time but thought that there was more room for appreciation in Montgomery County.

Is there any chance that things will flip around or will Montgomery County be stagnant or dropping for another 10 years?

Montgomery County is undervalued now because most of the investors are chasing the Amazon hype. There are still a lot of deals to be had close to Metro stations that are near the Beltway. You can still buy SFHs near Forest Glen for under $500,000. That’s a steal for being a 20 minute Metro ride from DC, which is still the main economic driver in the area and always will be despite what VA boosters will tell you. NoVA prices can only go up so far, especially in bad school districts like South Arlington and Alexandria. Houses zoned for TC Williams will not get that far over houses zoned for Einstein, for example, when Einstein is a 5/10 to TC’s 2/10.

The Purple Line is a game changer as well. Let’s revisit this thread when it opens in 2-3 years. Anything near a Purple Line station between Silver Spring and Bethesda is a great buy.

Regardless of what happens, worst case scenario is that close in MoCo appreciates at a slower pace than DC or Arlington but still outpaces the rest of the nation. People need a place to live and prices are going to be SF levels around here in 5-10 years. Anywhere near public transit is a good buy, no matter what county.

What makes you think so? I think it be used more by folks in PG to get to jobs in MC rather than the reverse.

PP. In other words, I think the Purple Line will help PG much more than MC. It may even have a negative effect on MC real estate values.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just looking at the appreciation forecasts for Arlington and Fairfax and feeling very depressed. If you had told me 15 years ago that houses would be selling for over 1M in Falls Church I would have never believed it. Our decision to move to Montgomery County over Falls Church or Arlington has probably cost us 600K-800K in lost opportunity equity. We were really on the fence at the time but thought that there was more room for appreciation in Montgomery County.

Is there any chance that things will flip around or will Montgomery County be stagnant or dropping for another 10 years?

Montgomery County is undervalued now because most of the investors are chasing the Amazon hype. There are still a lot of deals to be had close to Metro stations that are near the Beltway. You can still buy SFHs near Forest Glen for under $500,000. That’s a steal for being a 20 minute Metro ride from DC, which is still the main economic driver in the area and always will be despite what VA boosters will tell you. NoVA prices can only go up so far, especially in bad school districts like South Arlington and Alexandria. Houses zoned for TC Williams will not get that far over houses zoned for Einstein, for example, when Einstein is a 5/10 to TC’s 2/10.

The Purple Line is a game changer as well. Let’s revisit this thread when it opens in 2-3 years. Anything near a Purple Line station between Silver Spring and Bethesda is a great buy.

Regardless of what happens, worst case scenario is that close in MoCo appreciates at a slower pace than DC or Arlington but still outpaces the rest of the nation. People need a place to live and prices are going to be SF levels around here in 5-10 years. Anywhere near public transit is a good buy, no matter what county.

What makes you think so? I think it be used more by folks in PG to get to jobs in MC rather than the reverse.

PP again. I just don't see rich Bethesda people riding metro. The same thing happened with the Silver line in McLean. The locals don't use it all.

PP. In other words, I think the Purple Line will help PG much more than MC. It may even have a negative effect on MC real estate values.

[Anonymous]

The non stop competition in this forum is ridiculous. WE.ARE.ALL.FINE. DC, MD, VA. We are fine. It's okay. BREATHE.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The non stop competition in this forum is ridiculous. WE.ARE.ALL.FINE. DC, MD, VA. We are fine. It's okay. BREATHE.

It sounds like you need a break from the internet. How about you log off for the rest of the week?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The non stop competition in this forum is ridiculous. WE.ARE.ALL.FINE. DC, MD, VA. We are fine. It's okay. BREATHE.

1969 called, and they want you back at Woodstock, hippie.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sadly no. I highly doubt it. Property value follows its school system. I don’t see MCPS turning back to old glory days.

Exactly. Their schools are trashed.

You wish.

+1 And yet, my entire block of homes full of Ivy League educated parents with doctorates, law degrees and medical degrees, sends their kids to MCPS and seems happy about it.

[Anonymous]

Well, the Wheaton area has improved significantly in the ten years I have lived here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just looking at the appreciation forecasts for Arlington and Fairfax and feeling very depressed. If you had told me 15 years ago that houses would be selling for over 1M in Falls Church I would have never believed it. Our decision to move to Montgomery County over Falls Church or Arlington has probably cost us 600K-800K in lost opportunity equity. We were really on the fence at the time but thought that there was more room for appreciation in Montgomery County.

Is there any chance that things will flip around or will Montgomery County be stagnant or dropping for another 10 years?

I would take quality of life over home appreciation anytime. This is why chose to live in MoCo over NoVa. The quality of life in NoVa is horrible. I don’t want to raise my family around rednecks just because my house would appreciate by a few more bucks.
Your home is primarily a place to live. If your financial success depends on your home appreciation, you are doing it wrong and you are going to lose badly.
Remember this: Your primary home will never make you rich. A bad place to live will ruin your life and happiness.
Enjoy you happiness in one of the best places to live in the country (MoCo)

Where are these rednecks in NoVA? Or - are you comparing all of Northern Virginia, which includes Stafford, Culpeper, etc, with just Montgomery County, the wealthiest single county in "southern maryland" and excluding places like PG, Anne Arundel, etc, where there are definitely no "rednecks" or otherwise undesirable to you people?

Whatever makes you feel better I guess.

DP.. I always find it interesting when people compare one county in MD to the entire NoVa area, and many claim NoVa is so much better. It's an unfair comparison, and we see people comparing it on this forum all the time. And now here, when MoCo is better than NoVa in this regard, you say it's an unfair comparison. LOL

When people compare one county in MD to several counties combined in VA it reeks of desperation, and it's kind of pathetic.

I am originally from the west coast, so I don't really care one way or the other.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just looking at the appreciation forecasts for Arlington and Fairfax and feeling very depressed. If you had told me 15 years ago that houses would be selling for over 1M in Falls Church I would have never believed it. Our decision to move to Montgomery County over Falls Church or Arlington has probably cost us 600K-800K in lost opportunity equity. We were really on the fence at the time but thought that there was more room for appreciation in Montgomery County.

Is there any chance that things will flip around or will Montgomery County be stagnant or dropping for another 10 years?

You've already lost if you treat your own housing more like the stock market than a roof over your head. If you have a nice house that you live in and enjoy and it is close to work and the house has at least held its value relative to inflation, then what are you complaining about? No one can easily predict which housing markets will actually exponentially increase over 20 - 30 years. Housing should be viewed as a place to live.

+1 but this is an unpopular viewpoint. Everyone wants to believe they are sitting on a goldmine

OPs point is that people who bought in Alexandria or Arlington in the late 90's were/are sitting on a gold mine. I bought in Alexandria in 1999 and our house appreciated @ 90% in 5 years, stayed level during the recession, and then we sold for 100% profit shortly after (and it wasn't a cheap house to begin with). All tax free. I rented a house in Arlington that sold in the late 90's that has appreciated more than that. It was a lovely neighborhood that we enjoyed living in, but it was also a great investment. I see houses that I toured in 1990 in Potomac that are selling for about the same price now (adjusted for inflation). It's reasonable to be annoyed at not losing $$ when you see people around you doing very well on a similar investment.