26-27 Lottery data up

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That poster from the other thread was right about Lee Montessori Brookland being a super easy get for 1st grade. 6 matches, only 4 people on the waitlist. Back in 2021 the waitlist was in the 60s and it’s been steadily decreasing since then, but still last year it was in the 20s. To drop to single digits this year is big.

Are there any in-demand charter elementaries left that don't have a MS or MS/HS feeder? I think that really hurts the Montessoris. They have Truth but it's not a legal feeder, and the HS isn't strong yet.

Doesn’t look like it. And that makes sense, as there is less overall demand (fewer little kids, more DCPS interest in some places), if you can get a path to at least MS if not MS/HS why wouldn’t you take it? Will be interesting to see how DCI not being guaranteed impacts things if at all.

That said, 1st overall had steeper waitlist drops relative to the same school last year for many charters, even ones with feeders, and that doesn’t really line up with the demographic theory for dropping charter demand.

I wonder how the inevitable collapse of SSMA will effect it. It was always a dumb idea to concentrate so many Montessori schools in one area.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Huh. This doesn’t line up with my results in a weird way.

My K matched at John Lewis (our #5 choice). Her brother was waitlisted there with waitlist #1 for 1st grade (and he matched with our #6 choice). Both kids’ lists were exactly the same.

I assumed this was because Lewis either didn’t offer any seats for 1st grade or offered one or two and they got taken by siblings. Fine.

But looking at this dashboard, Lewis took FIVE kids for 1st grade, four of whom were no preference. How on earth did four kids with no preference match when my kid, whose results clearly show a preference of “Sibling Offered” wasn’t offered a seat?

I was under them impression that this could only happen if my kid had matched to a school he ranked higher (then he’d be #1 on the waitlist where his sister matched). But that’s not the case - he matched with our #6 school.

Anyone have any idea how this could have happened? This is messing with my whole understanding of how the lottery works.

This doesn’t align with my understanding of the lottery either.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Huh. This doesn’t line up with my results in a weird way.

My K matched at John Lewis (our #5 choice). Her brother was waitlisted there with waitlist #1 for 1st grade (and he matched with our #6 choice). Both kids’ lists were exactly the same.

I assumed this was because Lewis either didn’t offer any seats for 1st grade or offered one or two and they got taken by siblings. Fine.

But looking at this dashboard, Lewis took FIVE kids for 1st grade, four of whom were no preference. How on earth did four kids with no preference match when my kid, whose results clearly show a preference of “Sibling Offered” wasn’t offered a seat?

I was under them impression that this could only happen if my kid had matched to a school he ranked higher (then he’d be #1 on the waitlist where his sister matched). But that’s not the case - he matched with our #6 school.

Anyone have any idea how this could have happened? This is messing with my whole understanding of how the lottery works.

This doesn’t align with my understanding of the lottery either.

Poster above said it most simply...think of sibling offered as a priority that is only applied after match day. Sibling attending, IB at time of application, etc. all apply before the match.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DCI has a waitlists from most feeders schools. Do you think everyone will get a seat?

I’m wondering this too

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Huh. This doesn’t line up with my results in a weird way.

My K matched at John Lewis (our #5 choice). Her brother was waitlisted there with waitlist #1 for 1st grade (and he matched with our #6 choice). Both kids’ lists were exactly the same.

I assumed this was because Lewis either didn’t offer any seats for 1st grade or offered one or two and they got taken by siblings. Fine.

But looking at this dashboard, Lewis took FIVE kids for 1st grade, four of whom were no preference. How on earth did four kids with no preference match when my kid, whose results clearly show a preference of “Sibling Offered” wasn’t offered a seat?

I was under them impression that this could only happen if my kid had matched to a school he ranked higher (then he’d be #1 on the waitlist where his sister matched). But that’s not the case - he matched with our #6 school.

Anyone have any idea how this could have happened? This is messing with my whole understanding of how the lottery works.

This doesn’t align with my understanding of the lottery either.

Poster above said it most simply...think of sibling offered as a priority that is only applied after match day. Sibling attending, IB at time of application, etc. all apply before the match.

Gotcha. I didn’t know it worked that way!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DCI has a waitlists from most feeders schools. Do you think everyone will get a seat?

I’m wondering this too

Absolutely not. They expanded the elementary schools far beyond the number of DCI seats. Those kids aren’t going to Latin or Basis, so there’s no better middle school option for them without moving.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DCI has a waitlists from most feeders schools. Do you think everyone will get a seat?

I’m wondering this too

Absolutely not. They expanded the elementary schools far beyond the number of DCI seats. Those kids aren’t going to Latin or Basis, so there’s no better middle school option for them without moving.

https://edscape.dc.gov/page/student-enrollment-pathways

Use this data set and you will see that they are indeed going to Latin and BASIS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DCI has a waitlists from most feeders schools. Do you think everyone will get a seat?

I’m wondering this too

Absolutely not. They expanded the elementary schools far beyond the number of DCI seats. Those kids aren’t going to Latin or Basis, so there’s no better middle school option for them without moving.

https://edscape.dc.gov/page/student-enrollment-pathways

Use this data set and you will see that they are indeed going to Latin and BASIS.

Yep we know some families in our feeder who choose Latin and it’s all good because those seats will open up at DCI for other families.

Many if not all the feeders are not taking any kids in at 5th

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DCI has a waitlists from most feeders schools. Do you think everyone will get a seat?

I’m wondering this too

Absolutely not. They expanded the elementary schools far beyond the number of DCI seats. Those kids aren’t going to Latin or Basis, so there’s no better middle school option for them without moving.

https://edscape.dc.gov/page/student-enrollment-pathways

Use this data set and you will see that they are indeed going to Latin and BASIS.

Yep we know some families in our feeder who choose Latin and it’s all good because those seats will open up at DCI for other families.

Many if not all the feeders are not taking any kids in at 5th

To clarify the seats will open up for feeder families.

No shot at DCI for non-feeder families in Spanish

[Anonymous]

Even with expansion, all feeder kids in the waitlist got into DCI last year by May I think.

Look for the waitlist to move by May and continuing into the summer for waitlist feeder families.

I predict all feeder families will get in

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DCI has a waitlists from most feeders schools. Do you think everyone will get a seat?

I’m wondering this too

Absolutely not. They expanded the elementary schools far beyond the number of DCI seats. Those kids aren’t going to Latin or Basis, so there’s no better middle school option for them without moving.

https://edscape.dc.gov/page/student-enrollment-pathways

Use this data set and you will see that they are indeed going to Latin and BASIS.

In fifth, not sixth. The rising sixth grade cohort lotterying for DCI already accounted for Latin and Basis the prior year.

As PP says. It depends on how many kids leave after fourth and whether the school backfills in fifth.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Even with expansion, all feeder kids in the waitlist got into DCI last year by May I think.

Look for the waitlist to move by May and continuing into the summer for waitlist feeder families.

I predict all feeder families will get in

I would be worried if I were on the waitlist this year. Last year there were a bunch of extra seats from feeders that didn’t fill so overall there were enough seats for the feeder kids. That’s not the case this year. Last year DCB only had 36. This year it’s 58. All feeders have more applications.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DCI has a waitlists from most feeders schools. Do you think everyone will get a seat?

I’m wondering this too

Absolutely not. They expanded the elementary schools far beyond the number of DCI seats. Those kids aren’t going to Latin or Basis, so there’s no better middle school option for them without moving.

Isn't it a little crazy to have a feeder system where not every kid is guaranteed a seat at the feeder middle/high school?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Does anyone understand why there is such a big gap between the number of applications on results day and the number of the waitlist? e.g. 5th grade basis 360 matched (140) or were waitlisted (220) out of 450 applications. This leaves 90 unaccounted for.

I assumed it was because students are not put on the waitlist if the school is listed lower in their ranking than the school they matched at. e.g. student matched at latin which is listed 1st is not waitlist at basis.

If this were true you would expect schools which are generally considered more desirable to have *fewer* unaccounted for applicants (i.e. almost everyone would be on the waitlist if they did not match). Because they would have fewer schools ranked above that school. But that is not the case. e.g.
- Basis has 90 unaccounted for or a ratio of 0.8 between (matched+waitlist)/total applicants
- Latin 2nd street has 142 unaccounted for or a ratio of 0.79
- Latin cooper has 140 unaccounted for or a ratio of 0.78
- deal for 6th 187 unaccounted for or a ratio of 0.62

I think comparing 5th to 6th is apples to oranges. And you need to take into account the EA waitlists, which Latin has and BASIS does not.

BASIS has an EA waitlist. It is longer than the two Latin campuses' combined.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Does anyone understand why there is such a big gap between the number of applications on results day and the number of the waitlist? e.g. 5th grade basis 360 matched (140) or were waitlisted (220) out of 450 applications. This leaves 90 unaccounted for.

I assumed it was because students are not put on the waitlist if the school is listed lower in their ranking than the school they matched at. e.g. student matched at latin which is listed 1st is not waitlist at basis.

If this were true you would expect schools which are generally considered more desirable to have *fewer* unaccounted for applicants (i.e. almost everyone would be on the waitlist if they did not match). Because they would have fewer schools ranked above that school. But that is not the case. e.g.
- Basis has 90 unaccounted for or a ratio of 0.8 between (matched+waitlist)/total applicants
- Latin 2nd street has 142 unaccounted for or a ratio of 0.79
- Latin cooper has 140 unaccounted for or a ratio of 0.78
- deal for 6th 187 unaccounted for or a ratio of 0.62

I think comparing 5th to 6th is apples to oranges. And you need to take into account the EA waitlists, which Latin has and BASIS does not.

BASIS has an EA waitlist. It is longer than the two Latin campuses' combined.

Oops sorry, you're right. Anyway, to do a real comparison is hard because kids can be on the EA and the non-EA waitlist at a single school. But I'm not sure it happens automatically.