26-27 Lottery data up

[Anonymous]

That poster from the other thread was right about Lee Montessori Brookland being a super easy get for 1st grade. 6 matches, only 4 people on the waitlist. Back in 2021 the waitlist was in the 60s and it’s been steadily decreasing since then, but still last year it was in the 20s. To drop to single digits this year is big.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Huh. This doesn’t line up with my results in a weird way.

My K matched at John Lewis (our #5 choice). Her brother was waitlisted there with waitlist #1 for 1st grade (and he matched with our #6 choice). Both kids’ lists were exactly the same.

I assumed this was because Lewis either didn’t offer any seats for 1st grade or offered one or two and they got taken by siblings. Fine.

But looking at this dashboard, Lewis took FIVE kids for 1st grade, four of whom were no preference. How on earth did four kids with no preference match when my kid, whose results clearly show a preference of “Sibling Offered” wasn’t offered a seat?

I was under them impression that this could only happen if my kid had matched to a school he ranked higher (then he’d be #1 on the waitlist where his sister matched). But that’s not the case - he matched with our #6 school.

Anyone have any idea how this could have happened? This is messing with my whole understanding of how the lottery works.

If the five students with no preference had a higher lottery number than your K child at that time your 1st child was below them in the queue. Your 1st child only got a sibling with offer preference after your k child was offered a spot. They may not have had any more vacancies at that point.

[Anonymous]

It's weird to think of the lottery numbers ranking across grades but it must to make it fair.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Huh. This doesn’t line up with my results in a weird way.

My K matched at John Lewis (our #5 choice). Her brother was waitlisted there with waitlist #1 for 1st grade (and he matched with our #6 choice). Both kids’ lists were exactly the same.

I assumed this was because Lewis either didn’t offer any seats for 1st grade or offered one or two and they got taken by siblings. Fine.

But looking at this dashboard, Lewis took FIVE kids for 1st grade, four of whom were no preference. How on earth did four kids with no preference match when my kid, whose results clearly show a preference of “Sibling Offered” wasn’t offered a seat?

I was under them impression that this could only happen if my kid had matched to a school he ranked higher (then he’d be #1 on the waitlist where his sister matched). But that’s not the case - he matched with our #6 school.

Anyone have any idea how this could have happened? This is messing with my whole understanding of how the lottery works.

If the five students with no preference had a higher lottery number than your K child at that time your 1st child was below them in the queue. Your 1st child only got a sibling with offer preference after your k child was offered a spot. They may not have had any more vacancies at that point.

This. The lottery literally goes in order by number, so by the time it got to your kid, the school was full for anyone of any preference. Getting the sibling matched preference doesn’t cause them to bump kids who already matched.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I thought the sibling preference was once you are enrolled in the school which would mean that wouldn't kick in until your accepted student enrolls.

Anonymous wrote:Huh. This doesn’t line up with my results in a weird way.

My K matched at John Lewis (our #5 choice). Her brother was waitlisted there with waitlist #1 for 1st grade (and he matched with our #6 choice). Both kids’ lists were exactly the same.

I assumed this was because Lewis either didn’t offer any seats for 1st grade or offered one or two and they got taken by siblings. Fine.

But looking at this dashboard, Lewis took FIVE kids for 1st grade, four of whom were no preference. How on earth did four kids with no preference match when my kid, whose results clearly show a preference of “Sibling Offered” wasn’t offered a seat?

I was under them impression that this could only happen if my kid had matched to a school he ranked higher (then he’d be #1 on the waitlist where his sister matched). But that’s not the case - he matched with our #6 school.

Anyone have any idea how this could have happened? This is messing with my whole understanding of how the lottery works.

PP here - then why have a sibling offered preference at all? It’s listed as a category across the board. Shouldn’t it be “sibling enrolled?” Does that mean when siblings are applying together the same year (as mine are) sibling preference never helps you get a seat on match day?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Huh. This doesn’t line up with my results in a weird way.

My K matched at John Lewis (our #5 choice). Her brother was waitlisted there with waitlist #1 for 1st grade (and he matched with our #6 choice). Both kids’ lists were exactly the same.

I assumed this was because Lewis either didn’t offer any seats for 1st grade or offered one or two and they got taken by siblings. Fine.

But looking at this dashboard, Lewis took FIVE kids for 1st grade, four of whom were no preference. How on earth did four kids with no preference match when my kid, whose results clearly show a preference of “Sibling Offered” wasn’t offered a seat?

I was under them impression that this could only happen if my kid had matched to a school he ranked higher (then he’d be #1 on the waitlist where his sister matched). But that’s not the case - he matched with our #6 school.

Anyone have any idea how this could have happened? This is messing with my whole understanding of how the lottery works.

If the five students with no preference had a higher lottery number than your K child at that time your 1st child was below them in the queue. Your 1st child only got a sibling with offer preference after your k child was offered a spot. They may not have had any more vacancies at that point.

This. The lottery literally goes in order by number, so by the time it got to your kid, the school was full for anyone of any preference. Getting the sibling matched preference doesn’t cause them to bump kids who already matched.

Huh? I thought that was EXACTLY how preferences work, and why you needed a fancy algorithm to do all the matching. For example, if your kid has an inbound preference for PK3 and a crappy lottery number, by the time they get to your kid, your IB PK3 is all full with a bunch of OOB kids. Well, then one of those OOB kids (the one with the worst lottery number) gets “bumped” for your kid, and then they have to try and place that other kid in their second choice school.

Otherwise, how would preferences even help you if they’re not bumping people out with better lottery numbers?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Huh. This doesn’t line up with my results in a weird way.

My K matched at John Lewis (our #5 choice). Her brother was waitlisted there with waitlist #1 for 1st grade (and he matched with our #6 choice). Both kids’ lists were exactly the same.

I assumed this was because Lewis either didn’t offer any seats for 1st grade or offered one or two and they got taken by siblings. Fine.

But looking at this dashboard, Lewis took FIVE kids for 1st grade, four of whom were no preference. How on earth did four kids with no preference match when my kid, whose results clearly show a preference of “Sibling Offered” wasn’t offered a seat?

I was under them impression that this could only happen if my kid had matched to a school he ranked higher (then he’d be #1 on the waitlist where his sister matched). But that’s not the case - he matched with our #6 school.

Anyone have any idea how this could have happened? This is messing with my whole understanding of how the lottery works.

If the five students with no preference had a higher lottery number than your K child at that time your 1st child was below them in the queue. Your 1st child only got a sibling with offer preference after your k child was offered a spot. They may not have had any more vacancies at that point.

This. The lottery literally goes in order by number, so by the time it got to your kid, the school was full for anyone of any preference. Getting the sibling matched preference doesn’t cause them to bump kids who already matched.

Huh? I thought that was EXACTLY how preferences work, and why you needed a fancy algorithm to do all the matching. For example, if your kid has an inbound preference for PK3 and a crappy lottery number, by the time they get to your kid, your IB PK3 is all full with a bunch of OOB kids. Well, then one of those OOB kids (the one with the worst lottery number) gets “bumped” for your kid, and then they have to try and place that other kid in their second choice school.

Otherwise, how would preferences even help you if they’re not bumping people out with better lottery numbers?

A seat that was offered/accepted will never be taken away because an initially unmatched applicant has some new preference.

After the initial match, once you qualify for a preference, you skip ahead to that stretch of the WL queue.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I thought the sibling preference was once you are enrolled in the school which would mean that wouldn't kick in until your accepted student enrolls.

Anonymous wrote:Huh. This doesn’t line up with my results in a weird way.

My K matched at John Lewis (our #5 choice). Her brother was waitlisted there with waitlist #1 for 1st grade (and he matched with our #6 choice). Both kids’ lists were exactly the same.

I assumed this was because Lewis either didn’t offer any seats for 1st grade or offered one or two and they got taken by siblings. Fine.

But looking at this dashboard, Lewis took FIVE kids for 1st grade, four of whom were no preference. How on earth did four kids with no preference match when my kid, whose results clearly show a preference of “Sibling Offered” wasn’t offered a seat?

I was under them impression that this could only happen if my kid had matched to a school he ranked higher (then he’d be #1 on the waitlist where his sister matched). But that’s not the case - he matched with our #6 school.

Anyone have any idea how this could have happened? This is messing with my whole understanding of how the lottery works.

PP here - then why have a sibling offered preference at all? It’s listed as a category across the board. Shouldn’t it be “sibling enrolled?” Does that mean when siblings are applying together the same year (as mine are) sibling preference never helps you get a seat on match day?

The problem was your k child had a mediocre lottery number. If they had had a good number your 1st child would have gotten the preference applied earlier in the matching process. The 1st graders with no preference had a better lottery number it would not have been fair for your k child and their sibling to get matched first.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Huh. This doesn’t line up with my results in a weird way.

My K matched at John Lewis (our #5 choice). Her brother was waitlisted there with waitlist #1 for 1st grade (and he matched with our #6 choice). Both kids’ lists were exactly the same.

I assumed this was because Lewis either didn’t offer any seats for 1st grade or offered one or two and they got taken by siblings. Fine.

But looking at this dashboard, Lewis took FIVE kids for 1st grade, four of whom were no preference. How on earth did four kids with no preference match when my kid, whose results clearly show a preference of “Sibling Offered” wasn’t offered a seat?

I was under them impression that this could only happen if my kid had matched to a school he ranked higher (then he’d be #1 on the waitlist where his sister matched). But that’s not the case - he matched with our #6 school.

Anyone have any idea how this could have happened? This is messing with my whole understanding of how the lottery works.

If the five students with no preference had a higher lottery number than your K child at that time your 1st child was below them in the queue. Your 1st child only got a sibling with offer preference after your k child was offered a spot. They may not have had any more vacancies at that point.

This. The lottery literally goes in order by number, so by the time it got to your kid, the school was full for anyone of any preference. Getting the sibling matched preference doesn’t cause them to bump kids who already matched.

Huh? I thought that was EXACTLY how preferences work, and why you needed a fancy algorithm to do all the matching. For example, if your kid has an inbound preference for PK3 and a crappy lottery number, by the time they get to your kid, your IB PK3 is all full with a bunch of OOB kids. Well, then one of those OOB kids (the one with the worst lottery number) gets “bumped” for your kid, and then they have to try and place that other kid in their second choice school.

Otherwise, how would preferences even help you if they’re not bumping people out with better lottery numbers?

A seat that was offered/accepted will never be taken away because an initially unmatched applicant has some new preference.

After the initial match, once you qualify for a preference, you skip ahead to that stretch of the WL queue.

The difference is the IB kid started with the preference so matched; this kid gained the preference in the lottery, so didn’t. Kids literally matched before he had the qualifying factor. Those matches don’t get taken away. Otherwise it could be a never ending cycle.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Huh. This doesn’t line up with my results in a weird way.

My K matched at John Lewis (our #5 choice). Her brother was waitlisted there with waitlist #1 for 1st grade (and he matched with our #6 choice). Both kids’ lists were exactly the same.

I assumed this was because Lewis either didn’t offer any seats for 1st grade or offered one or two and they got taken by siblings. Fine.

But looking at this dashboard, Lewis took FIVE kids for 1st grade, four of whom were no preference. How on earth did four kids with no preference match when my kid, whose results clearly show a preference of “Sibling Offered” wasn’t offered a seat?

I was under them impression that this could only happen if my kid had matched to a school he ranked higher (then he’d be #1 on the waitlist where his sister matched). But that’s not the case - he matched with our #6 school.

Anyone have any idea how this could have happened? This is messing with my whole understanding of how the lottery works.

If the five students with no preference had a higher lottery number than your K child at that time your 1st child was below them in the queue. Your 1st child only got a sibling with offer preference after your k child was offered a spot. They may not have had any more vacancies at that point.

This. The lottery literally goes in order by number, so by the time it got to your kid, the school was full for anyone of any preference. Getting the sibling matched preference doesn’t cause them to bump kids who already matched.

Huh? I thought that was EXACTLY how preferences work, and why you needed a fancy algorithm to do all the matching. For example, if your kid has an inbound preference for PK3 and a crappy lottery number, by the time they get to your kid, your IB PK3 is all full with a bunch of OOB kids. Well, then one of those OOB kids (the one with the worst lottery number) gets “bumped” for your kid, and then they have to try and place that other kid in their second choice school.

Otherwise, how would preferences even help you if they’re not bumping people out with better lottery numbers?

Inbound is different because it is true at the beginning of the matching process.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Huh. This doesn’t line up with my results in a weird way.

My K matched at John Lewis (our #5 choice). Her brother was waitlisted there with waitlist #1 for 1st grade (and he matched with our #6 choice). Both kids’ lists were exactly the same.

I assumed this was because Lewis either didn’t offer any seats for 1st grade or offered one or two and they got taken by siblings. Fine.

But looking at this dashboard, Lewis took FIVE kids for 1st grade, four of whom were no preference. How on earth did four kids with no preference match when my kid, whose results clearly show a preference of “Sibling Offered” wasn’t offered a seat?

I was under them impression that this could only happen if my kid had matched to a school he ranked higher (then he’d be #1 on the waitlist where his sister matched). But that’s not the case - he matched with our #6 school.

Anyone have any idea how this could have happened? This is messing with my whole understanding of how the lottery works.

If the five students with no preference had a higher lottery number than your K child at that time your 1st child was below them in the queue. Your 1st child only got a sibling with offer preference after your k child was offered a spot. They may not have had any more vacancies at that point.

This. The lottery literally goes in order by number, so by the time it got to your kid, the school was full for anyone of any preference. Getting the sibling matched preference doesn’t cause them to bump kids who already matched.

Huh? I thought that was EXACTLY how preferences work, and why you needed a fancy algorithm to do all the matching. For example, if your kid has an inbound preference for PK3 and a crappy lottery number, by the time they get to your kid, your IB PK3 is all full with a bunch of OOB kids. Well, then one of those OOB kids (the one with the worst lottery number) gets “bumped” for your kid, and then they have to try and place that other kid in their second choice school.

Otherwise, how would preferences even help you if they’re not bumping people out with better lottery numbers?

Inbound is different because it is true at the beginning of the matching process.

Inbound is the same as all preferences; its just that few houeholds will gain that preference after matchday.

Imagine a DCPS school that filled all available seats by accepting OOB aplicants and its WL is only OOB kids. One of those waitlisted OOB kids moves in-bounds (or, at least for kinder and older, even a kid who was never on the WL). That kid's family can get the child to WL spot #1 by updating the child's preference, but none of the previously enrolled OOB kids unenrolled.

Same thing happens for a school that offers sibling enrolled, sibling offered, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Huh. This doesn’t line up with my results in a weird way.

My K matched at John Lewis (our #5 choice). Her brother was waitlisted there with waitlist #1 for 1st grade (and he matched with our #6 choice). Both kids’ lists were exactly the same.

I assumed this was because Lewis either didn’t offer any seats for 1st grade or offered one or two and they got taken by siblings. Fine.

But looking at this dashboard, Lewis took FIVE kids for 1st grade, four of whom were no preference. How on earth did four kids with no preference match when my kid, whose results clearly show a preference of “Sibling Offered” wasn’t offered a seat?

I was under them impression that this could only happen if my kid had matched to a school he ranked higher (then he’d be #1 on the waitlist where his sister matched). But that’s not the case - he matched with our #6 school.

Anyone have any idea how this could have happened? This is messing with my whole understanding of how the lottery works.

If the five students with no preference had a higher lottery number than your K child at that time your 1st child was below them in the queue. Your 1st child only got a sibling with offer preference after your k child was offered a spot. They may not have had any more vacancies at that point.

This. The lottery literally goes in order by number, so by the time it got to your kid, the school was full for anyone of any preference. Getting the sibling matched preference doesn’t cause them to bump kids who already matched.

Huh? I thought that was EXACTLY how preferences work, and why you needed a fancy algorithm to do all the matching. For example, if your kid has an inbound preference for PK3 and a crappy lottery number, by the time they get to your kid, your IB PK3 is all full with a bunch of OOB kids. Well, then one of those OOB kids (the one with the worst lottery number) gets “bumped” for your kid, and then they have to try and place that other kid in their second choice school.

Otherwise, how would preferences even help you if they’re not bumping people out with better lottery numbers?

If you put your kid is IB when you submit the lottery list, they will get preference and will never be after an OOB kid, never.

Their number will always be higher at that school than any OOB kid and will match or be #1 on waitlist if not enough spot for all IB kids.

Now if your kid is not IB and after lottery results come out, your kid matches with the school AND you enroll. Then after that your other kid will move up the waitlist to the top since there is now a sibling there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:That poster from the other thread was right about Lee Montessori Brookland being a super easy get for 1st grade. 6 matches, only 4 people on the waitlist. Back in 2021 the waitlist was in the 60s and it’s been steadily decreasing since then, but still last year it was in the 20s. To drop to single digits this year is big.

Are there any in-demand charter elementaries left that don't have a MS or MS/HS feeder? I think that really hurts the Montessoris. They have Truth but it's not a legal feeder, and the HS isn't strong yet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That poster from the other thread was right about Lee Montessori Brookland being a super easy get for 1st grade. 6 matches, only 4 people on the waitlist. Back in 2021 the waitlist was in the 60s and it’s been steadily decreasing since then, but still last year it was in the 20s. To drop to single digits this year is big.

Are there any in-demand charter elementaries left that don't have a MS or MS/HS feeder? I think that really hurts the Montessoris. They have Truth but it's not a legal feeder, and the HS isn't strong yet.

Doesn’t look like it. And that makes sense, as there is less overall demand (fewer little kids, more DCPS interest in some places), if you can get a path to at least MS if not MS/HS why wouldn’t you take it? Will be interesting to see how DCI not being guaranteed impacts things if at all.

That said, 1st overall had steeper waitlist drops relative to the same school last year for many charters, even ones with feeders, and that doesn’t really line up with the demographic theory for dropping charter demand.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Huh. This doesn’t line up with my results in a weird way.

My K matched at John Lewis (our #5 choice). Her brother was waitlisted there with waitlist #1 for 1st grade (and he matched with our #6 choice). Both kids’ lists were exactly the same.

I assumed this was because Lewis either didn’t offer any seats for 1st grade or offered one or two and they got taken by siblings. Fine.

But looking at this dashboard, Lewis took FIVE kids for 1st grade, four of whom were no preference. How on earth did four kids with no preference match when my kid, whose results clearly show a preference of “Sibling Offered” wasn’t offered a seat?

I was under them impression that this could only happen if my kid had matched to a school he ranked higher (then he’d be #1 on the waitlist where his sister matched). But that’s not the case - he matched with our #6 school.

Anyone have any idea how this could have happened? This is messing with my whole understanding of how the lottery works.

If the five students with no preference had a higher lottery number than your K child at that time your 1st child was below them in the queue. Your 1st child only got a sibling with offer preference after your k child was offered a spot. They may not have had any more vacancies at that point.

This. The lottery literally goes in order by number, so by the time it got to your kid, the school was full for anyone of any preference. Getting the sibling matched preference doesn’t cause them to bump kids who already matched.

Huh? I thought that was EXACTLY how preferences work, and why you needed a fancy algorithm to do all the matching. For example, if your kid has an inbound preference for PK3 and a crappy lottery number, by the time they get to your kid, your IB PK3 is all full with a bunch of OOB kids. Well, then one of those OOB kids (the one with the worst lottery number) gets “bumped” for your kid, and then they have to try and place that other kid in their second choice school.

Otherwise, how would preferences even help you if they’re not bumping people out with better lottery numbers?

If you put your kid is IB when you submit the lottery list, they will get preference and will never be after an OOB kid, never.

Their number will always be higher at that school than any OOB kid and will match or be #1 on waitlist if not enough spot for all IB kids.

Now if your kid is not IB and after lottery results come out, your kid matches with the school AND you enroll. Then after that your other kid will move up the waitlist to the top since there is now a sibling there.

Also, and this is relevant to the John Lewis family, there are NO IB students in the K-12 lottery. They just enroll, you actually can't even enter your IB school on the lottery.

So her 1st kid is competing with all the other OB kids with various characteristics.