What will happen to the economy and stock market if SCOTUS rules Trump tariffs are unconstitutional?

[Anonymous]

Once again, a poster thinks that DCUM has some crystal ball that they are not privy to.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Of course everyone in this thread thinks SCOTUS will overturn tariffs, the money forum here is just known for being wrong. Look, SCOTUS entertained the government's argument that tariffs weren't enacted to generate revenue so that they can allow tariffs to stand. Just because the President tells the US everyday that his tariffs bring in revenue doesn't make it true.

I listened to the oral argument and a conclusion that they “entertained the… argument that tariffs weren’t enacted to generate revenue” is bizarre to me. Which justices “entertained” it and at what time stamps?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My prediction if tariffs are overturned:
-Interest rates go up because of deteriorating fiscal condition of the U.S. since this will blow a hole in the federal budget, higher mortgage rates
-Price of gold goes up
-Consumer prices flatline, rate of inflation falls below 2%
-Stock market rally in companies/sector reliant on imports - consumer good (Walmart, Home Depot), electronics (Apple, Samsung), automotive (US and foreign), small cap stocks
-Tariffs refunds inject money into the economy - less layoffs, more economic activity
-

Why on EARTH would the Fed increase interest rates due to deteriorating conditions…?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Overturning tariffs would be a huge gift to Trump and would allow him to escape the consequences of crashing the US economy. There's a possibility of a unanimous decision upholding the tariffs, conservatives to show adequate fealty to Trump and the liberals to deliver a crap sandwich Trump will ignorantly eat. Plus letting Trump impose random tariff percentages on whatever products really muddles Republican messaging on the economy ("well we lowered tariffs on China from 100% to 85% and the 47% increase on steel will let you buy cars at a 2.78% discount"). Democrats can just say whatever Trump is doing is raising prices, inflation, and unemployment.

The problem with this theory is that the liberal justices have integrity and actually rule on the merits of the case, unlike the regressive ones who rule however will cement more GOP power.

LOLOLOLOL

[Anonymous]

This case only impacts the IEPPA/reciprocal tariffs. Trump has many other legal authorities to achieve the same goal and he has been and will continue to use those authorities.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My prediction if tariffs are overturned:
-Interest rates go up because of deteriorating fiscal condition of the U.S. since this will blow a hole in the federal budget, higher mortgage rates
-Price of gold goes up
-Consumer prices flatline, rate of inflation falls below 2%
-Stock market rally in companies/sector reliant on imports - consumer good (Walmart, Home Depot), electronics (Apple, Samsung), automotive (US and foreign), small cap stocks
-Tariffs refunds inject money into the economy - less layoffs, more economic activity
-

Why on EARTH would the Fed increase interest rates due to deteriorating conditions…?

Buyers of Treasuries will require higher rates because the USG is issuing more debt due to loss of tariff revenue and lower tax receipts due to OBBB. This drives up market interest rates, independent of the Fed.

If SC overturns the tariffs, I suspect that the Fed will stop cutting rates due to policy uncertainty and to see the market reaction.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This case only impacts the IEPPA/reciprocal tariffs. Trump has many other legal authorities to achieve the same goal and he has been and will continue to use those authorities.

But those authorities have significant limits so he can’t just impose tariffs willy nilly at whatever rate he feels like. The one that allows quick tariffs caps them at 15% for 90 days. The others require lengthy studies and often notice and comment periods.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My prediction if tariffs are overturned:
-Interest rates go up because of deteriorating fiscal condition of the U.S. since this will blow a hole in the federal budget, higher mortgage rates
-Price of gold goes up
-Consumer prices flatline, rate of inflation falls below 2%
-Stock market rally in companies/sector reliant on imports - consumer good (Walmart, Home Depot), electronics (Apple, Samsung), automotive (US and foreign), small cap stocks
-Tariffs refunds inject money into the economy - less layoffs, more economic activity
-

Why on EARTH would the Fed increase interest rates due to deteriorating conditions…?

Agree this is wrong.

[Anonymous]

The answer is when they overturn -- nothing much of any consequence will happen. Non-issue.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This case only impacts the IEPPA/reciprocal tariffs. Trump has many other legal authorities to achieve the same goal and he has been and will continue to use those authorities.

But those authorities have significant limits so he can’t just impose tariffs willy nilly at whatever rate he feels like. The one that allows quick tariffs caps them at 15% for 90 days. The others require lengthy studies and often notice and comment periods.

They are still problematic, and the administration saw the potential of IEPPA being overturned so they started numerous 301, 232, etc investigations already. If IEPPA is overturned it’s a speed bump, not a U-turn, for Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My prediction if tariffs are overturned:
-Interest rates go up because of deteriorating fiscal condition of the U.S. since this will blow a hole in the federal budget, higher mortgage rates
-Price of gold goes up
-Consumer prices flatline, rate of inflation falls below 2%
-Stock market rally in companies/sector reliant on imports - consumer good (Walmart, Home Depot), electronics (Apple, Samsung), automotive (US and foreign), small cap stocks
-Tariffs refunds inject money into the economy - less layoffs, more economic activity
-

Why on EARTH would the Fed increase interest rates due to deteriorating conditions…?

Agree this is wrong.

It has nothing to do with the Fed raising or lowering rates. If the tariffs are overturned and refunded, the U.S. government will need to issue a massive amount of debt in a very short period of time to cover the spending that was supposed to be funded by tariffs. The only way to garner that degree of interest in the debt auctions is for US Treasury auctions to clear at a very high interest rate. The more debt we need to issue in a short period of time, the higher the interest rate will need to be.

The Fed is not the end all, be all of interest rates.

[Anonymous]

Soar.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Overturning tariffs would be a huge gift to Trump and would allow him to escape the consequences of crashing the US economy. There's a possibility of a unanimous decision upholding the tariffs, conservatives to show adequate fealty to Trump and the liberals to deliver a crap sandwich Trump will ignorantly eat. Plus letting Trump impose random tariff percentages on whatever products really muddles Republican messaging on the economy ("well we lowered tariffs on China from 100% to 85% and the 47% increase on steel will let you buy cars at a 2.78% discount"). Democrats can just say whatever Trump is doing is raising prices, inflation, and unemployment.

The problem with this theory is that the liberal justices have integrity and actually rule on the merits of the case, unlike the regressive ones who rule however will cement more GOP power.

LOLOLOLOL

Indeed. You can trust the liberal members of the court to ALWAYS vote for what the progressive/democratic side wants. It’s the conservative members of the court which sometimes vote against what conservatives want. Well, except for Thomas. He’s basically the conservative version of the three liberal justices.

[Anonymous]

This is not hard.

Trump has never been successful at one buisness anyone who thinks he isn't running this country into the ground was an idiot and did not read project 2025.

Listen when they spew.
They are going to destroy us and make you beg for food.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Overturning tariffs would be a huge gift to Trump and would allow him to escape the consequences of crashing the US economy. There's a possibility of a unanimous decision upholding the tariffs, conservatives to show adequate fealty to Trump and the liberals to deliver a crap sandwich Trump will ignorantly eat. Plus letting Trump impose random tariff percentages on whatever products really muddles Republican messaging on the economy ("well we lowered tariffs on China from 100% to 85% and the 47% increase on steel will let you buy cars at a 2.78% discount"). Democrats can just say whatever Trump is doing is raising prices, inflation, and unemployment.

The problem with this theory is that the liberal justices have integrity and actually rule on the merits of the case, unlike the regressive ones who rule however will cement more GOP power.

LOLOLOLOL

Indeed. You can trust the liberal members of the court to ALWAYS vote for what the progressive/democratic side wants. It’s the conservative members of the court which sometimes vote against what conservatives want. Well, except for Thomas. He’s basically the conservative version of the three liberal justices.

BS BS BS

There is no reality that Roberts, Barrett, and Kavanugh and Alito and Gorsouch are not anti american trash. They gave a criminal immunity to install him as king.

Thomas is a baffoon criminal baffoon.

Who paid Kavanugh's debts? He did not millions they paid off his credit cards. Barrett wants you barefoot and preganant and your daughters raped by old white men. They are unconstitutional hacks.

My family died for this county you are an anti Ameriican idiot.