What will happen to the economy and stock market if SCOTUS rules Trump tariffs are unconstitutional?

[Anonymous]

Unwinding any of the ill-conceived Trump policies should be a plus for the economy.

I just received a shipment of low-piece-cost personalized merchandise from China. Order cost $1,849. Tariffs due upon arrival were $330. That factory is never coming back to the US no matter how much I pay. The US company I purchased from ate the tariffs because they promised me there was no uncharted coming from tariffs. So now we have an angry small business owner and an angry recipient of merchandise. This is happening everywhere in the economy. Little businesses and big businesses are equally getting jerked around.

[Anonymous]

^no upcharge

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Unwinding any of the ill-conceived Trump policies should be a plus for the economy.

I just received a shipment of low-piece-cost personalized merchandise from China. Order cost $1,849. Tariffs due upon arrival were $330. That factory is never coming back to the US no matter how much I pay. The US company I purchased from ate the tariffs because they promised me there was no uncharted coming from tariffs. So now we have an angry small business owner and an angry recipient of merchandise. This is happening everywhere in the economy. Little businesses and big businesses are equally getting jerked around.

This might be true, but I found it interesting that not one big company, conglomerate, whatever was a plaintiff in the case before SCOTUS or filed an amicus brief. As always, it was the little guy forced to fight Goliath.

[Anonymous]

I hope I can find this thread when you’re all proven truly abysmal court forecasters.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Unwinding any of the ill-conceived Trump policies should be a plus for the economy.

I just received a shipment of low-piece-cost personalized merchandise from China. Order cost $1,849. Tariffs due upon arrival were $330. That factory is never coming back to the US no matter how much I pay. The US company I purchased from ate the tariffs because they promised me there was no uncharted coming from tariffs. So now we have an angry small business owner and an angry recipient of merchandise. This is happening everywhere in the economy. Little businesses and big businesses are equally getting jerked around.

This might be true, but I found it interesting that not one big company, conglomerate, whatever was a plaintiff in the case before SCOTUS or filed an amicus brief. As always, it was the little guy forced to fight Goliath.

Yes poor plaintiffs, represented by Katyal

[Anonymous]

The market would skyrocket if the tarrifs are ruled unconstitutional. But this SCOTUS won't rule that way.

[Anonymous]

Nothing will happen.

I am concerned though that businesses who raised prices due to tariffs are not going to lower them. If anyone has a solution to make businesses lower prices once tariffs are deemed unconstitutional please let us know. For instance, I don't see car makers lowering prices. The sad truth is we unnecessarily got one time increase that will never come down..Businesses did it without us noticing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Unwinding any of the ill-conceived Trump policies should be a plus for the economy.

I just received a shipment of low-piece-cost personalized merchandise from China. Order cost $1,849. Tariffs due upon arrival were $330. That factory is never coming back to the US no matter how much I pay. The US company I purchased from ate the tariffs because they promised me there was no uncharted coming from tariffs. So now we have an angry small business owner and an angry recipient of merchandise. This is happening everywhere in the economy. Little businesses and big businesses are equally getting jerked around.

This might be true, but I found it interesting that not one big company, conglomerate, whatever was a plaintiff in the case before SCOTUS or filed an amicus brief. As always, it was the little guy forced to fight Goliath.

Yes poor plaintiffs, represented by Katyal

He is almost certainly representing some plaintiffs pro-bono. This is a great case for him, plus shows Milbank fighting against the administration after making a deal with them in the spring.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Unwinding any of the ill-conceived Trump policies should be a plus for the economy.

I just received a shipment of low-piece-cost personalized merchandise from China. Order cost $1,849. Tariffs due upon arrival were $330. That factory is never coming back to the US no matter how much I pay. The US company I purchased from ate the tariffs because they promised me there was no uncharted coming from tariffs. So now we have an angry small business owner and an angry recipient of merchandise. This is happening everywhere in the economy. Little businesses and big businesses are equally getting jerked around.

This might be true, but I found it interesting that not one big company, conglomerate, whatever was a plaintiff in the case before SCOTUS or filed an amicus brief. As always, it was the little guy forced to fight Goliath.

Yes poor plaintiffs, represented by Katyal

He is almost certainly representing some plaintiffs pro-bono. This is a great case for him, plus shows Milbank fighting against the administration after making a deal with them in the spring.

Yes. But what’s your point? This is hardly a David v Goliath situation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The market would skyrocket if the tarrifs are ruled unconstitutional. But this SCOTUS won't rule that way.

You are bad at understanding SCOTUS. Probably have partisanship brain worms.

[Anonymous]

At present, the Roberts Court has zero credibility anymore. The Supreme Court is a banana republic Court.

But this is the one case where they will get some buy in from conservatives - like the farm state people - who don't love tariffs. I do expect them to rule that tariffs belong in the legislative branch, rather than the executive branch.

If Mike Johnson and John Thune want to legitimize the tariffs, they certainly can. Republicans control everything.

This is their problem.

As for the market, it's a huge bubble regardless. But taking away the tariff money puts the US in an even worse place. Republican tax cuts don't pay the bills, so I'd expect the dollar to tank even further as the debt levels go extreme. All your tax dollars are going toward paying the interest on the debt - 39 trillion and rising, with nearly half of that due to Trump. The real risk is the rest of the world abandoning the US dollar as the reserve currency.

Things get very catastrophic at that point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Nothing will happen.

I am concerned though that businesses who raised prices due to tariffs are not going to lower them. If anyone has a solution to make businesses lower prices once tariffs are deemed unconstitutional please let us know. For instance, I don't see car makers lowering prices. The sad truth is we unnecessarily got one time increase that will never come down..Businesses did it without us noticing.

2X
They did it during Covid too

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The market would skyrocket if the tarrifs are ruled unconstitutional. But this SCOTUS won't rule that way.

The tariffs invalidity would be on a statutory basis; not really a constitutional.

We begin, as we must, with the Constitution. That sacred document lodged with Congress the authority to implement tariffs as part of its taxation authority. Congress can delegate to the Executive Article I powers; however, that delegation must be clearly stated. Here, the Executive asserts that [name of statute] is a delegation of Congress’s tariff authority that satisfies the constraints recognized by this Court. For the following reasons, we disagree. The matter is remanded to the court below to determine whether the Treasury can refund the previously collected tariffs and, if so, the computation of such refund for the petitioners.

[Why the Government’s reading of the statute is not the best, given the plain text before us]

[Major Questions Doctrine supports our textualist conclusions]

[Anonymous]

Nothing is going to change. The tariffs are not going anywhere.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:SCOTUS isn't going to rule against Trump. Their "scepticism" was just to give MAGA more insider trades before the economy stays down.

+1