What will happen to the economy and stock market if SCOTUS rules Trump tariffs are unconstitutional?

[Anonymous]

I would expect them to say we defer to the executive as to whether there was an emergency. But as of today there is no emergency and in the future an emergency must have x, y, and z under the statute. In 60 days tariffs end. Congress can enact legislation if it wants over those 60 days.

No refunds. Tariffs end. Congress free to act. Can’t do it again unless x, y, and z are met.

That opinion gets 9-0 in parts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nothing will happen.

I am concerned though that businesses who raised prices due to tariffs are not going to lower them. If anyone has a solution to make businesses lower prices once tariffs are deemed unconstitutional please let us know. For instance, I don't see car makers lowering prices. The sad truth is we unnecessarily got one time increase that will never come down..Businesses did it without us noticing.

2X
They did it during Covid too

Not one business is going to lower prices no matter what the SCOTUS outcome.

Publix, Home Depot, Wallmart, Target blame them

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I would expect them to say we defer to the executive as to whether there was an emergency. But as of today there is no emergency and in the future an emergency must have x, y, and z under the statute. In 60 days tariffs end. Congress can enact legislation if it wants over those 60 days.

No refunds. Tariffs end. Congress free to act. Can’t do it again unless x, y, and z are met.

That opinion gets 9-0 in parts.

The Court is not going to touch at all the existence of, or the requisite conditions for, an emergency. Even if that was the holding, Thomas would not sign it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nothing will happen.

I am concerned though that businesses who raised prices due to tariffs are not going to lower them. If anyone has a solution to make businesses lower prices once tariffs are deemed unconstitutional please let us know. For instance, I don't see car makers lowering prices. The sad truth is we unnecessarily got one time increase that will never come down..Businesses did it without us noticing.

2X
They did it during Covid too

Not one business is going to lower prices no matter what the SCOTUS outcome.

Publix, Home Depot, Wallmart, Target blame them

Let's bring back the Nixon/Ford/Carter wage and price controls for a few months just so we all remember; "oh, right. That was a terrible idea."

Private companies are free to set prices however they wish. If people are willing to pay, then we get what we have. Prices will stabilize when we regain access to cheap imported goods and labor (immigrants). Alternatively, people reach a point where they no longer can borrow more. Look up the "Volcker shock" if you are too young to remember.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nothing will happen.

I am concerned though that businesses who raised prices due to tariffs are not going to lower them. If anyone has a solution to make businesses lower prices once tariffs are deemed unconstitutional please let us know. For instance, I don't see car makers lowering prices. The sad truth is we unnecessarily got one time increase that will never come down..Businesses did it without us noticing.

2X
They did it during Covid too

Not one business is going to lower prices no matter what the SCOTUS outcome.

Publix, Home Depot, Wallmart, Target blame them

Let's bring back the Nixon/Ford/Carter wage and price controls for a few months just so we all remember; "oh, right. That was a terrible idea."

Private companies are free to set prices however they wish. If people are willing to pay, then we get what we have. Prices will stabilize when we regain access to cheap imported goods and labor (immigrants). Alternatively, people reach a point where they no longer can borrow more. Look up the "Volcker shock" if you are too young to remember.

At least Nixon had clear statutory authority granted by Congress to do so

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Stabilization_Act_of_1970

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nothing will happen.

I am concerned though that businesses who raised prices due to tariffs are not going to lower them. If anyone has a solution to make businesses lower prices once tariffs are deemed unconstitutional please let us know. For instance, I don't see car makers lowering prices. The sad truth is we unnecessarily got one time increase that will never come down..Businesses did it without us noticing.

2X
They did it during Covid too

Yup.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The market would skyrocket if the tarrifs are ruled unconstitutional. But this SCOTUS won't rule that way.

The tariffs invalidity would be on a statutory basis; not really a constitutional.

We begin, as we must, with the Constitution. That sacred document lodged with Congress the authority to implement tariffs as part of its taxation authority. Congress can delegate to the Executive Article I powers; however, that delegation must be clearly stated. Here, the Executive asserts that [name of statute] is a delegation of Congress’s tariff authority that satisfies the constraints recognized by this Court. For the following reasons, we disagree. The matter is remanded to the court below to determine whether the Treasury can refund the previously collected tariffs and, if so, the computation of such refund for the petitioners.

[Why the Government’s reading of the statute is not the best, given the plain text before us]

[Major Questions Doctrine supports our textualist conclusions]

Nah, SCOTUS creates new doctrine every time they rule in favor of Trump. What you wrote above is the standard applied to democrat presidents only.

[Anonymous]

Of course everyone in this thread thinks SCOTUS will overturn tariffs, the money forum here is just known for being wrong. Look, SCOTUS entertained the government's argument that tariffs weren't enacted to generate revenue so that they can allow tariffs to stand. Just because the President tells the US everyday that his tariffs bring in revenue doesn't make it true.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would expect them to say we defer to the executive as to whether there was an emergency. But as of today there is no emergency and in the future an emergency must have x, y, and z under the statute. In 60 days tariffs end. Congress can enact legislation if it wants over those 60 days.

No refunds. Tariffs end. Congress free to act. Can’t do it again unless x, y, and z are met.

That opinion gets 9-0 in parts.

The Court is not going to touch at all the existence of, or the requisite conditions for, an emergency. Even if that was the holding, Thomas would not sign it.

That is a required part of their ruling. They cannot reach the question without it. And yes Thomas would join parts of the opinion i outlined but not other parts. This is not a hard case.

[Anonymous]

My prediction if tariffs are overturned:
-Interest rates go up because of deteriorating fiscal condition of the U.S. since this will blow a hole in the federal budget, higher mortgage rates
-Price of gold goes up
-Consumer prices flatline, rate of inflation falls below 2%
-Stock market rally in companies/sector reliant on imports - consumer good (Walmart, Home Depot), electronics (Apple, Samsung), automotive (US and foreign), small cap stocks
-Tariffs refunds inject money into the economy - less layoffs, more economic activity
-

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes but they were going to pay for all those tax cuts with the tarrifs and now that revenue isn't coming so it'll add to the debt.

Republicans don't know how to balance a budget - they always drive up the deficit with their stupid plans.

[Anonymous]

Overturning tariffs would be a huge gift to Trump and would allow him to escape the consequences of crashing the US economy. There's a possibility of a unanimous decision upholding the tariffs, conservatives to show adequate fealty to Trump and the liberals to deliver a crap sandwich Trump will ignorantly eat. Plus letting Trump impose random tariff percentages on whatever products really muddles Republican messaging on the economy ("well we lowered tariffs on China from 100% to 85% and the 47% increase on steel will let you buy cars at a 2.78% discount"). Democrats can just say whatever Trump is doing is raising prices, inflation, and unemployment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My prediction if tariffs are overturned:
-Interest rates go up because of deteriorating fiscal condition of the U.S. since this will blow a hole in the federal budget, higher mortgage rates
-Price of gold goes up
-Consumer prices flatline, rate of inflation falls below 2%
-Stock market rally in companies/sector reliant on imports - consumer good (Walmart, Home Depot), electronics (Apple, Samsung), automotive (US and foreign), small cap stocks
-Tariffs refunds inject money into the economy - less layoffs, more economic activity
-

^ seems most likely

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Overturning tariffs would be a huge gift to Trump and would allow him to escape the consequences of crashing the US economy. There's a possibility of a unanimous decision upholding the tariffs, conservatives to show adequate fealty to Trump and the liberals to deliver a crap sandwich Trump will ignorantly eat. Plus letting Trump impose random tariff percentages on whatever products really muddles Republican messaging on the economy ("well we lowered tariffs on China from 100% to 85% and the 47% increase on steel will let you buy cars at a 2.78% discount"). Democrats can just say whatever Trump is doing is raising prices, inflation, and unemployment.

The problem with this theory is that the liberal justices have integrity and actually rule on the merits of the case, unlike the regressive ones who rule however will cement more GOP power.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would expect them to say we defer to the executive as to whether there was an emergency. But as of today there is no emergency and in the future an emergency must have x, y, and z under the statute. In 60 days tariffs end. Congress can enact legislation if it wants over those 60 days.

No refunds. Tariffs end. Congress free to act. Can’t do it again unless x, y, and z are met.

That opinion gets 9-0 in parts.

The Court is not going to touch at all the existence of, or the requisite conditions for, an emergency. Even if that was the holding, Thomas would not sign it.

That is a required part of their ruling. They cannot reach the question without it. And yes Thomas would join parts of the opinion i outlined but not other parts. This is not a hard case.

Really making a lot of assumptions about a court which a year ago invented an unwritten immunity clause into Article II. Nothing is required from them, they can do whatever they want.