What will happen to the economy and stock market if SCOTUS rules Trump tariffs are unconstitutional?

[Anonymous]

Arguments so far this morning sounds like they could support the lower court ruling and overturn Trump's tariffs. Whatever has been paid will have to be returned to businesses. What would that do to the market?

[Anonymous]

It's unclear if they rule against him (which from reading about the oral arguments, yes seems likely) that they will require the collections to be repaid, or if they will just outlaw future collections.

But generally it should help the economy and stock market a good amount- price reductions are always good for the economy.

Ironically it will also help Republicans chances in the midterms since the economy will be less likely to be in the sh---er in fall 2026 without the tariffs.

[Anonymous]

Yes but they were going to pay for all those tax cuts with the tarrifs and now that revenue isn't coming so it'll add to the debt.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes but they were going to pay for all those tax cuts with the tarrifs and now that revenue isn't coming so it'll add to the debt.

Which is already skyrocketing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes but they were going to pay for all those tax cuts with the tarrifs and now that revenue isn't coming so it'll add to the debt.

No the best estimates showed that the tariffs (which of course aren't part of any budget/law and thus would likely last at most through 2028) would only replace half of the lost revenue from the HR1 tax cuts.

https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-tax-changes/

[Anonymous]

The markets all popped after oral argument and hearing the skepticism in SCOTUS.

[Anonymous]

SCOTUS isn't going to rule against Trump. Their "scepticism" was just to give MAGA more insider trades before the economy stays down.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:SCOTUS isn't going to rule against Trump. Their "scepticism" was just to give MAGA more insider trades before the economy stays down.

You’re a fool. They asked so many questions about how to handle refunds for a reason. I say that as a conservative Republican.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:SCOTUS isn't going to rule against Trump. Their "scepticism" was just to give MAGA more insider trades before the economy stays down.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:SCOTUS isn't going to rule against Trump. Their "scepticism" was just to give MAGA more insider trades before the economy stays down.

You’re a fool. They asked so many questions about how to handle refunds for a reason. I say that as a conservative Republican.

Barrett basically said refunding would be too much of a mess. She is setting up like this is the Gorgonian knot that can not be undone.

[Anonymous]

It will be like Bush v Gore: "yes, it was illegal, but since we refused to act on it before, it's too late doopsy oopsy!"

[Anonymous]

They’ll figure out some novel way to create relief that is prospective only.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's unclear if they rule against him (which from reading about the oral arguments, yes seems likely) that they will require the collections to be repaid, or if they will just outlaw future collections.

But generally it should help the economy and stock market a good amount- price reductions are always good for the economy.

Ironically it will also help Republicans chances in the midterms since the economy will be less likely to be in the sh---er in fall 2026 without the tariffs.

Barrett is very worried about the pay back she’s voting with Trump for that reason

And 2026 no the economy is going to be worse than now there will be no jobs project 2025

If you think we are voting in 2026 you are not paying attention

Mike Johnson isn’t reopening the government because of Epstein so economy will continue to suffer

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:They’ll figure out some novel way to create relief that is prospective only.

Tax credit for all Americans.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:SCOTUS isn't going to rule against Trump. Their "scepticism" was just to give MAGA more insider trades before the economy stays down.

+1
The Supreme Court justices know what their job is.