TSP percentages

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most feds I know who sold out and put into the G fund, never timed the market correctly to get back in. This is starting from 2008-2010 Financial Crisis. I know it's scary. We lost around 40% in market value during that time, but spouse and I kept it in mostly equities b/c we knew our investment horizon was more than 20 plus years at that point. I used to have more G and F, but in the last 5 years or more, they've really sucked. As PPs point out, owning G is losing money. F has been even worse. I have 90% in C,S and I. I am 51 soon to be 52 and have $1.6M in TSP. I am not selling equities to move to G fund and realizing the loss of Trump/Musk's craziness these last 7 weeks. Since we won't access the TSP all at once, there is still time to recover it over time. I'm old enough to realize that last 10 years is not normal for market returns anyway. If we average 7% over the lifetime of the account, I would rather do that then lose it all to G. Besides with everything they're doing US dollars will become worth even less (e.g., huge tax cuts for billionaires/wealthy, firing tons of fed workers, tariffs).

Maybe this is a dumb question but if the C/S/I funds lost 40% wouldn't someone who sold C/S/I and bought G/F at any point during that 40% slide still be better off than someone who stayed in?

Sure it's practically impossible to time it exactly and reap that entire 40% but even if you didn't sell until 20% down and then bought back in while 30% down and it lost another 10%, you're still 10% up on someone who held the whole time, right?

No because the person who sold at some point during the slide (statistically) did not buy back in at the bottom and experience the recovery. The person who stayed in C/S/I lost 40% but then recovered their losses plus much more over the next couple of years. The person who sold out earned much less in the G fund.

I’m the pp who went into the G fund. I did this in the Great Recession as well. Did I sell at the top and buy at the bottom? No. I sold after the market was down 10% and bought back in at the 8000’s only to watch it fall to the 6000’s before recovering. I made more money than if I had just rode it all the way down and back up.

If I buy it right now, I get more shares than I sold when I went into G. You don’t have to be perfect, you just have to be willing to buy back in and lose some. Considering the market hasn’t even hit bear territory yet I’m not too worried about missing gains.

So that is your win. The internet is full of people who only win. In reality for every story you hear on the internet of someone bragging about selling high and buying low, there is someone who does not want to talk about buying low and selling high.

I’m sure there are plenty of people that don’t do well like this but the fact remains if you had sold two weeks ago and bought today, you would buy more shares than you sold. Sure it will likely go down more but when it recovers to the price two weeks ago you’ll have more money. The problem comes with people trying to get the very bottom or top. It was clear the tariffs would cause a recession. It wasn’t clear where the top was going to be and I didn’t hit it. I don’t know where the bottom is going to be but I’m not aiming for it either. I do believe it’s got a ways to go. The market has had a lot of bad days but I haven’t seen any kind of capitulation happen yet. It was after the initial capitulation that I bought back on last time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most feds I know who sold out and put into the G fund, never timed the market correctly to get back in. This is starting from 2008-2010 Financial Crisis. I know it's scary. We lost around 40% in market value during that time, but spouse and I kept it in mostly equities b/c we knew our investment horizon was more than 20 plus years at that point. I used to have more G and F, but in the last 5 years or more, they've really sucked. As PPs point out, owning G is losing money. F has been even worse. I have 90% in C,S and I. I am 51 soon to be 52 and have $1.6M in TSP. I am not selling equities to move to G fund and realizing the loss of Trump/Musk's craziness these last 7 weeks. Since we won't access the TSP all at once, there is still time to recover it over time. I'm old enough to realize that last 10 years is not normal for market returns anyway. If we average 7% over the lifetime of the account, I would rather do that then lose it all to G. Besides with everything they're doing US dollars will become worth even less (e.g., huge tax cuts for billionaires/wealthy, firing tons of fed workers, tariffs).

Maybe this is a dumb question but if the C/S/I funds lost 40% wouldn't someone who sold C/S/I and bought G/F at any point during that 40% slide still be better off than someone who stayed in?

Sure it's practically impossible to time it exactly and reap that entire 40% but even if you didn't sell until 20% down and then bought back in while 30% down and it lost another 10%, you're still 10% up on someone who held the whole time, right?

No because the person who sold at some point during the slide (statistically) did not buy back in at the bottom and experience the recovery. The person who stayed in C/S/I lost 40% but then recovered their losses plus much more over the next couple of years. The person who sold out earned much less in the G fund.

I’m the pp who went into the G fund. I did this in the Great Recession as well. Did I sell at the top and buy at the bottom? No. I sold after the market was down 10% and bought back in at the 8000’s only to watch it fall to the 6000’s before recovering. I made more money than if I had just rode it all the way down and back up.

If I buy it right now, I get more shares than I sold when I went into G. You don’t have to be perfect, you just have to be willing to buy back in and lose some. Considering the market hasn’t even hit bear territory yet I’m not too worried about missing gains.

So that is your win. The internet is full of people who only win. In reality for every story you hear on the internet of someone bragging about selling high and buying low, there is someone who does not want to talk about buying low and selling high.

I’m sure there are plenty of people that don’t do well like this but the fact remains if you had sold two weeks ago and bought today, you would buy more shares than you sold. Sure it will likely go down more but when it recovers to the price two weeks ago you’ll have more money. The problem comes with people trying to get the very bottom or top. It was clear the tariffs would cause a recession. It wasn’t clear where the top was going to be and I didn’t hit it. I don’t know where the bottom is going to be but I’m not aiming for it either. I do believe it’s got a ways to go. The market has had a lot of bad days but I haven’t seen any kind of capitulation happen yet. It was after the initial capitulation that I bought back on last time.

This is still market timing and the odds of you coming out on top are very slim.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most feds I know who sold out and put into the G fund, never timed the market correctly to get back in. This is starting from 2008-2010 Financial Crisis. I know it's scary. We lost around 40% in market value during that time, but spouse and I kept it in mostly equities b/c we knew our investment horizon was more than 20 plus years at that point. I used to have more G and F, but in the last 5 years or more, they've really sucked. As PPs point out, owning G is losing money. F has been even worse. I have 90% in C,S and I. I am 51 soon to be 52 and have $1.6M in TSP. I am not selling equities to move to G fund and realizing the loss of Trump/Musk's craziness these last 7 weeks. Since we won't access the TSP all at once, there is still time to recover it over time. I'm old enough to realize that last 10 years is not normal for market returns anyway. If we average 7% over the lifetime of the account, I would rather do that then lose it all to G. Besides with everything they're doing US dollars will become worth even less (e.g., huge tax cuts for billionaires/wealthy, firing tons of fed workers, tariffs).

Maybe this is a dumb question but if the C/S/I funds lost 40% wouldn't someone who sold C/S/I and bought G/F at any point during that 40% slide still be better off than someone who stayed in?

Sure it's practically impossible to time it exactly and reap that entire 40% but even if you didn't sell until 20% down and then bought back in while 30% down and it lost another 10%, you're still 10% up on someone who held the whole time, right?

No because the person who sold at some point during the slide (statistically) did not buy back in at the bottom and experience the recovery. The person who stayed in C/S/I lost 40% but then recovered their losses plus much more over the next couple of years. The person who sold out earned much less in the G fund.

I’m the pp who went into the G fund. I did this in the Great Recession as well. Did I sell at the top and buy at the bottom? No. I sold after the market was down 10% and bought back in at the 8000’s only to watch it fall to the 6000’s before recovering. I made more money than if I had just rode it all the way down and back up.

If I buy it right now, I get more shares than I sold when I went into G. You don’t have to be perfect, you just have to be willing to buy back in and lose some. Considering the market hasn’t even hit bear territory yet I’m not too worried about missing gains.

So that is your win. The internet is full of people who only win. In reality for every story you hear on the internet of someone bragging about selling high and buying low, there is someone who does not want to talk about buying low and selling high.

I’m sure there are plenty of people that don’t do well like this but the fact remains if you had sold two weeks ago and bought today, you would buy more shares than you sold. Sure it will likely go down more but when it recovers to the price two weeks ago you’ll have more money. The problem comes with people trying to get the very bottom or top. It was clear the tariffs would cause a recession. It wasn’t clear where the top was going to be and I didn’t hit it. I don’t know where the bottom is going to be but I’m not aiming for it either. I do believe it’s got a ways to go. The market has had a lot of bad days but I haven’t seen any kind of capitulation happen yet. It was after the initial capitulation that I bought back on last time.

This is still market timing and the odds of you coming out on top are very slim.

No, no, I have been watching the roulette wheel and black is totally due on this spin. There have been 6 reds in a row, I did the math and there is less than a 1% chance of getting red 7 times in a row. I used my system last time and it worked. I know other people's systems are flawed, but my system is a sure winner.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most feds I know who sold out and put into the G fund, never timed the market correctly to get back in. This is starting from 2008-2010 Financial Crisis. I know it's scary. We lost around 40% in market value during that time, but spouse and I kept it in mostly equities b/c we knew our investment horizon was more than 20 plus years at that point. I used to have more G and F, but in the last 5 years or more, they've really sucked. As PPs point out, owning G is losing money. F has been even worse. I have 90% in C,S and I. I am 51 soon to be 52 and have $1.6M in TSP. I am not selling equities to move to G fund and realizing the loss of Trump/Musk's craziness these last 7 weeks. Since we won't access the TSP all at once, there is still time to recover it over time. I'm old enough to realize that last 10 years is not normal for market returns anyway. If we average 7% over the lifetime of the account, I would rather do that then lose it all to G. Besides with everything they're doing US dollars will become worth even less (e.g., huge tax cuts for billionaires/wealthy, firing tons of fed workers, tariffs).

Maybe this is a dumb question but if the C/S/I funds lost 40% wouldn't someone who sold C/S/I and bought G/F at any point during that 40% slide still be better off than someone who stayed in?

Sure it's practically impossible to time it exactly and reap that entire 40% but even if you didn't sell until 20% down and then bought back in while 30% down and it lost another 10%, you're still 10% up on someone who held the whole time, right?

No because the person who sold at some point during the slide (statistically) did not buy back in at the bottom and experience the recovery. The person who stayed in C/S/I lost 40% but then recovered their losses plus much more over the next couple of years. The person who sold out earned much less in the G fund.

I’m the pp who went into the G fund. I did this in the Great Recession as well. Did I sell at the top and buy at the bottom? No. I sold after the market was down 10% and bought back in at the 8000’s only to watch it fall to the 6000’s before recovering. I made more money than if I had just rode it all the way down and back up.

If I buy it right now, I get more shares than I sold when I went into G. You don’t have to be perfect, you just have to be willing to buy back in and lose some. Considering the market hasn’t even hit bear territory yet I’m not too worried about missing gains.

So that is your win. The internet is full of people who only win. In reality for every story you hear on the internet of someone bragging about selling high and buying low, there is someone who does not want to talk about buying low and selling high.

I’m sure there are plenty of people that don’t do well like this but the fact remains if you had sold two weeks ago and bought today, you would buy more shares than you sold. Sure it will likely go down more but when it recovers to the price two weeks ago you’ll have more money. The problem comes with people trying to get the very bottom or top. It was clear the tariffs would cause a recession. It wasn’t clear where the top was going to be and I didn’t hit it. I don’t know where the bottom is going to be but I’m not aiming for it either. I do believe it’s got a ways to go. The market has had a lot of bad days but I haven’t seen any kind of capitulation happen yet. It was after the initial capitulation that I bought back on last time.

This is still market timing and the odds of you coming out on top are very slim.

So I buy back in now and I’m ahead right? Or I keep waiting. You’re making a weird assumption that market timing has to be perfect. We are headed for recession. It’s easy to buy more shares than in that environment. This isn’t some mystery, our government is purposely crashing the economy.

[Anonymous]

I moved 90% of my TSP to the G fund last Monday. I am planning on staying there for awhile. Unless the democrats play hardball and shut the government down for some leverage I think we’re in for a very long, very big slide.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most feds I know who sold out and put into the G fund, never timed the market correctly to get back in. This is starting from 2008-2010 Financial Crisis. I know it's scary. We lost around 40% in market value during that time, but spouse and I kept it in mostly equities b/c we knew our investment horizon was more than 20 plus years at that point. I used to have more G and F, but in the last 5 years or more, they've really sucked. As PPs point out, owning G is losing money. F has been even worse. I have 90% in C,S and I. I am 51 soon to be 52 and have $1.6M in TSP. I am not selling equities to move to G fund and realizing the loss of Trump/Musk's craziness these last 7 weeks. Since we won't access the TSP all at once, there is still time to recover it over time. I'm old enough to realize that last 10 years is not normal for market returns anyway. If we average 7% over the lifetime of the account, I would rather do that then lose it all to G. Besides with everything they're doing US dollars will become worth even less (e.g., huge tax cuts for billionaires/wealthy, firing tons of fed workers, tariffs).

Maybe this is a dumb question but if the C/S/I funds lost 40% wouldn't someone who sold C/S/I and bought G/F at any point during that 40% slide still be better off than someone who stayed in?

Sure it's practically impossible to time it exactly and reap that entire 40% but even if you didn't sell until 20% down and then bought back in while 30% down and it lost another 10%, you're still 10% up on someone who held the whole time, right?

No because the person who sold at some point during the slide (statistically) did not buy back in at the bottom and experience the recovery. The person who stayed in C/S/I lost 40% but then recovered their losses plus much more over the next couple of years. The person who sold out earned much less in the G fund.

I’m the pp who went into the G fund. I did this in the Great Recession as well. Did I sell at the top and buy at the bottom? No. I sold after the market was down 10% and bought back in at the 8000’s only to watch it fall to the 6000’s before recovering. I made more money than if I had just rode it all the way down and back up.

If I buy it right now, I get more shares than I sold when I went into G. You don’t have to be perfect, you just have to be willing to buy back in and lose some. Considering the market hasn’t even hit bear territory yet I’m not too worried about missing gains.

So that is your win. The internet is full of people who only win. In reality for every story you hear on the internet of someone bragging about selling high and buying low, there is someone who does not want to talk about buying low and selling high.

I’m sure there are plenty of people that don’t do well like this but the fact remains if you had sold two weeks ago and bought today, you would buy more shares than you sold. Sure it will likely go down more but when it recovers to the price two weeks ago you’ll have more money. The problem comes with people trying to get the very bottom or top. It was clear the tariffs would cause a recession. It wasn’t clear where the top was going to be and I didn’t hit it. I don’t know where the bottom is going to be but I’m not aiming for it either. I do believe it’s got a ways to go. The market has had a lot of bad days but I haven’t seen any kind of capitulation happen yet. It was after the initial capitulation that I bought back on last time.

This is still market timing and the odds of you coming out on top are very slim.

So I buy back in now and I’m ahead right? Or I keep waiting. You’re making a weird assumption that market timing has to be perfect. We are headed for recession. It’s easy to buy more shares than in that environment. This isn’t some mystery, our government is purposely crashing the economy.

You have convinced yourself that you know the future, and that is the problem with your strategy. Your intelligence is irrelevant. Your education is irrelevant. Your vast knowledge from obsessing about current events is irrelevant as well. You are wasting your time/energy, and the end result is that Joe 6 pack sitting on his but will beat you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most feds I know who sold out and put into the G fund, never timed the market correctly to get back in. This is starting from 2008-2010 Financial Crisis. I know it's scary. We lost around 40% in market value during that time, but spouse and I kept it in mostly equities b/c we knew our investment horizon was more than 20 plus years at that point. I used to have more G and F, but in the last 5 years or more, they've really sucked. As PPs point out, owning G is losing money. F has been even worse. I have 90% in C,S and I. I am 51 soon to be 52 and have $1.6M in TSP. I am not selling equities to move to G fund and realizing the loss of Trump/Musk's craziness these last 7 weeks. Since we won't access the TSP all at once, there is still time to recover it over time. I'm old enough to realize that last 10 years is not normal for market returns anyway. If we average 7% over the lifetime of the account, I would rather do that then lose it all to G. Besides with everything they're doing US dollars will become worth even less (e.g., huge tax cuts for billionaires/wealthy, firing tons of fed workers, tariffs).

Maybe this is a dumb question but if the C/S/I funds lost 40% wouldn't someone who sold C/S/I and bought G/F at any point during that 40% slide still be better off than someone who stayed in?

Sure it's practically impossible to time it exactly and reap that entire 40% but even if you didn't sell until 20% down and then bought back in while 30% down and it lost another 10%, you're still 10% up on someone who held the whole time, right?

No because the person who sold at some point during the slide (statistically) did not buy back in at the bottom and experience the recovery. The person who stayed in C/S/I lost 40% but then recovered their losses plus much more over the next couple of years. The person who sold out earned much less in the G fund.

I’m the pp who went into the G fund. I did this in the Great Recession as well. Did I sell at the top and buy at the bottom? No. I sold after the market was down 10% and bought back in at the 8000’s only to watch it fall to the 6000’s before recovering. I made more money than if I had just rode it all the way down and back up.

If I buy it right now, I get more shares than I sold when I went into G. You don’t have to be perfect, you just have to be willing to buy back in and lose some. Considering the market hasn’t even hit bear territory yet I’m not too worried about missing gains.

So that is your win. The internet is full of people who only win. In reality for every story you hear on the internet of someone bragging about selling high and buying low, there is someone who does not want to talk about buying low and selling high.

I’m sure there are plenty of people that don’t do well like this but the fact remains if you had sold two weeks ago and bought today, you would buy more shares than you sold. Sure it will likely go down more but when it recovers to the price two weeks ago you’ll have more money. The problem comes with people trying to get the very bottom or top. It was clear the tariffs would cause a recession. It wasn’t clear where the top was going to be and I didn’t hit it. I don’t know where the bottom is going to be but I’m not aiming for it either. I do believe it’s got a ways to go. The market has had a lot of bad days but I haven’t seen any kind of capitulation happen yet. It was after the initial capitulation that I bought back on last time.

This is still market timing and the odds of you coming out on top are very slim.

So I buy back in now and I’m ahead right? Or I keep waiting. You’re making a weird assumption that market timing has to be perfect. We are headed for recession. It’s easy to buy more shares than in that environment. This isn’t some mystery, our government is purposely crashing the economy.

You have convinced yourself that you know the future, and that is the problem with your strategy. Your intelligence is irrelevant. Your education is irrelevant. Your vast knowledge from obsessing about current events is irrelevant as well. You are wasting your time/energy, and the end result is that Joe 6 pack sitting on his but will beat you.

I don’t know the future. I said as much. You’ve convinced yourself that no one can do better than just letting it ride.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most feds I know who sold out and put into the G fund, never timed the market correctly to get back in. This is starting from 2008-2010 Financial Crisis. I know it's scary. We lost around 40% in market value during that time, but spouse and I kept it in mostly equities b/c we knew our investment horizon was more than 20 plus years at that point. I used to have more G and F, but in the last 5 years or more, they've really sucked. As PPs point out, owning G is losing money. F has been even worse. I have 90% in C,S and I. I am 51 soon to be 52 and have $1.6M in TSP. I am not selling equities to move to G fund and realizing the loss of Trump/Musk's craziness these last 7 weeks. Since we won't access the TSP all at once, there is still time to recover it over time. I'm old enough to realize that last 10 years is not normal for market returns anyway. If we average 7% over the lifetime of the account, I would rather do that then lose it all to G. Besides with everything they're doing US dollars will become worth even less (e.g., huge tax cuts for billionaires/wealthy, firing tons of fed workers, tariffs).

Maybe this is a dumb question but if the C/S/I funds lost 40% wouldn't someone who sold C/S/I and bought G/F at any point during that 40% slide still be better off than someone who stayed in?

Sure it's practically impossible to time it exactly and reap that entire 40% but even if you didn't sell until 20% down and then bought back in while 30% down and it lost another 10%, you're still 10% up on someone who held the whole time, right?

No because the person who sold at some point during the slide (statistically) did not buy back in at the bottom and experience the recovery. The person who stayed in C/S/I lost 40% but then recovered their losses plus much more over the next couple of years. The person who sold out earned much less in the G fund.

I’m the pp who went into the G fund. I did this in the Great Recession as well. Did I sell at the top and buy at the bottom? No. I sold after the market was down 10% and bought back in at the 8000’s only to watch it fall to the 6000’s before recovering. I made more money than if I had just rode it all the way down and back up.

If I buy it right now, I get more shares than I sold when I went into G. You don’t have to be perfect, you just have to be willing to buy back in and lose some. Considering the market hasn’t even hit bear territory yet I’m not too worried about missing gains.

So that is your win. The internet is full of people who only win. In reality for every story you hear on the internet of someone bragging about selling high and buying low, there is someone who does not want to talk about buying low and selling high.

I’m sure there are plenty of people that don’t do well like this but the fact remains if you had sold two weeks ago and bought today, you would buy more shares than you sold. Sure it will likely go down more but when it recovers to the price two weeks ago you’ll have more money. The problem comes with people trying to get the very bottom or top. It was clear the tariffs would cause a recession. It wasn’t clear where the top was going to be and I didn’t hit it. I don’t know where the bottom is going to be but I’m not aiming for it either. I do believe it’s got a ways to go. The market has had a lot of bad days but I haven’t seen any kind of capitulation happen yet. It was after the initial capitulation that I bought back on last time.

This is still market timing and the odds of you coming out on top are very slim.

So I buy back in now and I’m ahead right? Or I keep waiting. You’re making a weird assumption that market timing has to be perfect. We are headed for recession. It’s easy to buy more shares than in that environment. This isn’t some mystery, our government is purposely crashing the economy.

You have convinced yourself that you know the future, and that is the problem with your strategy. Your intelligence is irrelevant. Your education is irrelevant. Your vast knowledge from obsessing about current events is irrelevant as well. You are wasting your time/energy, and the end result is that Joe 6 pack sitting on his but will beat you.

I don’t know the future. I said as much. You’ve convinced yourself that no one can do better than just letting it ride.

I dont know about no one, but definitely not you. Anyone who can time the market is selling that advice and not giving it away.

[Anonymous]

Whenever you buy or sell, you are basically timing the market. There’s nothing wrong with buying the dip or selling when market is in uptrend. I get tired of “you are timing the market” posts.

[Anonymous]

I'm sure I won't time things perfectly, but I started moving from 100% C/S/I to about 50% G several months ago. A bit at a time over a couple of months.

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” - Warren Buffet

I saw early post Trump election a lot of people getting greedy. Seems to be turning to fear more now although I suspect he'll want to sow more chaos to drive something in his agenda, so I haven't started shifting back into C/S/I yet.

All that is with exactly what you paid to read it.

[Anonymous]

Some types of market timing are certainly more egregious or risky than others, that's for sure. Have 20% in cash and stocks are down 40%? Not a big deal buying stocks with your cash if you are ok with the risk and able to ride it out. But most strategies don't go well, and there are a ton of studies supporting the view that it's a bad idea.

I honestly think most market timing involves either someones emotions or they think they're the smartest guy in the room.

[Anonymous]

In my 10 years as a fed, the I has seriously underperformed. I know theoretically it serves has a hedge against the C/S, but I think I faired better by just leaving it in C/S and riding out the waves.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most feds I know who sold out and put into the G fund, never timed the market correctly to get back in. This is starting from 2008-2010 Financial Crisis. I know it's scary. We lost around 40% in market value during that time, but spouse and I kept it in mostly equities b/c we knew our investment horizon was more than 20 plus years at that point. I used to have more G and F, but in the last 5 years or more, they've really sucked. As PPs point out, owning G is losing money. F has been even worse. I have 90% in C,S and I. I am 51 soon to be 52 and have $1.6M in TSP. I am not selling equities to move to G fund and realizing the loss of Trump/Musk's craziness these last 7 weeks. Since we won't access the TSP all at once, there is still time to recover it over time. I'm old enough to realize that last 10 years is not normal for market returns anyway. If we average 7% over the lifetime of the account, I would rather do that then lose it all to G. Besides with everything they're doing US dollars will become worth even less (e.g., huge tax cuts for billionaires/wealthy, firing tons of fed workers, tariffs).

Maybe this is a dumb question but if the C/S/I funds lost 40% wouldn't someone who sold C/S/I and bought G/F at any point during that 40% slide still be better off than someone who stayed in?

Sure it's practically impossible to time it exactly and reap that entire 40% but even if you didn't sell until 20% down and then bought back in while 30% down and it lost another 10%, you're still 10% up on someone who held the whole time, right?

No because the person who sold at some point during the slide (statistically) did not buy back in at the bottom and experience the recovery. The person who stayed in C/S/I lost 40% but then recovered their losses plus much more over the next couple of years. The person who sold out earned much less in the G fund.

I’m the pp who went into the G fund. I did this in the Great Recession as well. Did I sell at the top and buy at the bottom? No. I sold after the market was down 10% and bought back in at the 8000’s only to watch it fall to the 6000’s before recovering. I made more money than if I had just rode it all the way down and back up.

If I buy it right now, I get more shares than I sold when I went into G. You don’t have to be perfect, you just have to be willing to buy back in and lose some. Considering the market hasn’t even hit bear territory yet I’m not too worried about missing gains.

So that is your win. The internet is full of people who only win. In reality for every story you hear on the internet of someone bragging about selling high and buying low, there is someone who does not want to talk about buying low and selling high.

I’m sure there are plenty of people that don’t do well like this but the fact remains if you had sold two weeks ago and bought today, you would buy more shares than you sold. Sure it will likely go down more but when it recovers to the price two weeks ago you’ll have more money. The problem comes with people trying to get the very bottom or top. It was clear the tariffs would cause a recession. It wasn’t clear where the top was going to be and I didn’t hit it. I don’t know where the bottom is going to be but I’m not aiming for it either. I do believe it’s got a ways to go. The market has had a lot of bad days but I haven’t seen any kind of capitulation happen yet. It was after the initial capitulation that I bought back on last time.

This is still market timing and the odds of you coming out on top are very slim.

So I buy back in now and I’m ahead right? Or I keep waiting. You’re making a weird assumption that market timing has to be perfect. We are headed for recession. It’s easy to buy more shares than in that environment. This isn’t some mystery, our government is purposely crashing the economy.

You have convinced yourself that you know the future, and that is the problem with your strategy. Your intelligence is irrelevant. Your education is irrelevant. Your vast knowledge from obsessing about current events is irrelevant as well. You are wasting your time/energy, and the end result is that Joe 6 pack sitting on his but will beat you.

They already sold their stocks, they don't have to know the future at this point, only the present.

If at present the stocks they sold are at a lower price than when they sold them, they will make more money buying them back than someone with identical stocks who never sold them. It's simple math.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Most feds I know who sold out and put into the G fund, never timed the market correctly to get back in. This is starting from 2008-2010 Financial Crisis. I know it's scary. We lost around 40% in market value during that time, but spouse and I kept it in mostly equities b/c we knew our investment horizon was more than 20 plus years at that point. I used to have more G and F, but in the last 5 years or more, they've really sucked. As PPs point out, owning G is losing money. F has been even worse. I have 90% in C,S and I. I am 51 soon to be 52 and have $1.6M in TSP. I am not selling equities to move to G fund and realizing the loss of Trump/Musk's craziness these last 7 weeks. Since we won't access the TSP all at once, there is still time to recover it over time. I'm old enough to realize that last 10 years is not normal for market returns anyway. If we average 7% over the lifetime of the account, I would rather do that then lose it all to G. Besides with everything they're doing US dollars will become worth even less (e.g., huge tax cuts for billionaires/wealthy, firing tons of fed workers, tariffs).

Maybe this is a dumb question but if the C/S/I funds lost 40% wouldn't someone who sold C/S/I and bought G/F at any point during that 40% slide still be better off than someone who stayed in?

Sure it's practically impossible to time it exactly and reap that entire 40% but even if you didn't sell until 20% down and then bought back in while 30% down and it lost another 10%, you're still 10% up on someone who held the whole time, right?

No because the person who sold at some point during the slide (statistically) did not buy back in at the bottom and experience the recovery. The person who stayed in C/S/I lost 40% but then recovered their losses plus much more over the next couple of years. The person who sold out earned much less in the G fund.

I’m the pp who went into the G fund. I did this in the Great Recession as well. Did I sell at the top and buy at the bottom? No. I sold after the market was down 10% and bought back in at the 8000’s only to watch it fall to the 6000’s before recovering. I made more money than if I had just rode it all the way down and back up.

If I buy it right now, I get more shares than I sold when I went into G. You don’t have to be perfect, you just have to be willing to buy back in and lose some. Considering the market hasn’t even hit bear territory yet I’m not too worried about missing gains.

So that is your win. The internet is full of people who only win. In reality for every story you hear on the internet of someone bragging about selling high and buying low, there is someone who does not want to talk about buying low and selling high.

I’m sure there are plenty of people that don’t do well like this but the fact remains if you had sold two weeks ago and bought today, you would buy more shares than you sold. Sure it will likely go down more but when it recovers to the price two weeks ago you’ll have more money. The problem comes with people trying to get the very bottom or top. It was clear the tariffs would cause a recession. It wasn’t clear where the top was going to be and I didn’t hit it. I don’t know where the bottom is going to be but I’m not aiming for it either. I do believe it’s got a ways to go. The market has had a lot of bad days but I haven’t seen any kind of capitulation happen yet. It was after the initial capitulation that I bought back on last time.

This is still market timing and the odds of you coming out on top are very slim.

So I buy back in now and I’m ahead right? Or I keep waiting. You’re making a weird assumption that market timing has to be perfect. We are headed for recession. It’s easy to buy more shares than in that environment. This isn’t some mystery, our government is purposely crashing the economy.

You have convinced yourself that you know the future, and that is the problem with your strategy. Your intelligence is irrelevant. Your education is irrelevant. Your vast knowledge from obsessing about current events is irrelevant as well. You are wasting your time/energy, and the end result is that Joe 6 pack sitting on his but will beat you.

They already sold their stocks, they don't have to know the future at this point, only the present.

If at present the stocks they sold are at a lower price than when they sold them, they will make more money buying them back than someone with identical stocks who never sold them. It's simple math.

If they buy back today. But something like half of all market gains occur on 10 trading days so if you miss one or two of those and you are worse off then someone who stayed in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most feds I know who sold out and put into the G fund, never timed the market correctly to get back in. This is starting from 2008-2010 Financial Crisis. I know it's scary. We lost around 40% in market value during that time, but spouse and I kept it in mostly equities b/c we knew our investment horizon was more than 20 plus years at that point. I used to have more G and F, but in the last 5 years or more, they've really sucked. As PPs point out, owning G is losing money. F has been even worse. I have 90% in C,S and I. I am 51 soon to be 52 and have $1.6M in TSP. I am not selling equities to move to G fund and realizing the loss of Trump/Musk's craziness these last 7 weeks. Since we won't access the TSP all at once, there is still time to recover it over time. I'm old enough to realize that last 10 years is not normal for market returns anyway. If we average 7% over the lifetime of the account, I would rather do that then lose it all to G. Besides with everything they're doing US dollars will become worth even less (e.g., huge tax cuts for billionaires/wealthy, firing tons of fed workers, tariffs).

Maybe this is a dumb question but if the C/S/I funds lost 40% wouldn't someone who sold C/S/I and bought G/F at any point during that 40% slide still be better off than someone who stayed in?

Sure it's practically impossible to time it exactly and reap that entire 40% but even if you didn't sell until 20% down and then bought back in while 30% down and it lost another 10%, you're still 10% up on someone who held the whole time, right?

No because the person who sold at some point during the slide (statistically) did not buy back in at the bottom and experience the recovery. The person who stayed in C/S/I lost 40% but then recovered their losses plus much more over the next couple of years. The person who sold out earned much less in the G fund.

I’m the pp who went into the G fund. I did this in the Great Recession as well. Did I sell at the top and buy at the bottom? No. I sold after the market was down 10% and bought back in at the 8000’s only to watch it fall to the 6000’s before recovering. I made more money than if I had just rode it all the way down and back up.

If I buy it right now, I get more shares than I sold when I went into G. You don’t have to be perfect, you just have to be willing to buy back in and lose some. Considering the market hasn’t even hit bear territory yet I’m not too worried about missing gains.

So that is your win. The internet is full of people who only win. In reality for every story you hear on the internet of someone bragging about selling high and buying low, there is someone who does not want to talk about buying low and selling high.

I’m sure there are plenty of people that don’t do well like this but the fact remains if you had sold two weeks ago and bought today, you would buy more shares than you sold. Sure it will likely go down more but when it recovers to the price two weeks ago you’ll have more money. The problem comes with people trying to get the very bottom or top. It was clear the tariffs would cause a recession. It wasn’t clear where the top was going to be and I didn’t hit it. I don’t know where the bottom is going to be but I’m not aiming for it either. I do believe it’s got a ways to go. The market has had a lot of bad days but I haven’t seen any kind of capitulation happen yet. It was after the initial capitulation that I bought back on last time.

This is still market timing and the odds of you coming out on top are very slim.

So I buy back in now and I’m ahead right? Or I keep waiting. You’re making a weird assumption that market timing has to be perfect. We are headed for recession. It’s easy to buy more shares than in that environment. This isn’t some mystery, our government is purposely crashing the economy.

You have convinced yourself that you know the future, and that is the problem with your strategy. Your intelligence is irrelevant. Your education is irrelevant. Your vast knowledge from obsessing about current events is irrelevant as well. You are wasting your time/energy, and the end result is that Joe 6 pack sitting on his but will beat you.

The G Fund is still going well for me compared to being in the stock market. I'd even say that it's not too late for others to move to G. Yes there has been a market correction but it's still likely to be worse. We haven't hit a bear market, the official start of a recession, or any literally anything that looks remotely like capitulation. A recession is coming.