TSP percentages

[Anonymous]

55 y/o and retired. $1.8M with most in the Roth TSP. All C Fund as it’s very difficult to time the market consistently. Will just let it keep growing all tax free even on withdrawal. Slowly converting the regular TSP portion to a regular Roth IRA.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:100% G until the crash.

I was thinking of doing that too.

FACT: Almost all Market timers underperform the SP500. They can certainly
get lucky every once in a while but over time they underperform. And those that say they outperform are lying.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one in I?

The thought process for people who know nothing about investing goes something like this....

Hmmm, what has done well lately? Yep, invest everything in that

So true. And most posters on DCUM fall into this category.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:100% G until the crash.

I was thinking of doing that too.

FACT: Almost all Market timers underperform the SP500. They can certainly
get lucky every once in a while but over time they underperform. And those that say they outperform are lying.

I would love to see some evidence cited for this “FACT”. My prior would be that half market timers overperform and half underperform the market.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:100% G until the crash.

I was thinking of doing that too.

FACT: Almost all Market timers underperform the SP500. They can certainly
get lucky every once in a while but over time they underperform. And those that say they outperform are lying.

Well if you put your money into the G fund a week or two and bought back into stock funds now you’re out performing the market already. You can just do better.

[Anonymous]

Here are historic TSP returns. If you keep all of money in the G fund, you are barely keeping up with inflation. https://www.tsp.gov/fund-performance/

Most TSP millionaires have put all of their money in C fund and used a "set it and forget it strategy".

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:100% G until the crash.

I was thinking of doing that too.

FACT: Almost all Market timers underperform the SP500. They can certainly
get lucky every once in a while but over time they underperform. And those that say they outperform are lying.

I would love to see some evidence cited for this “FACT”. My prior would be that half market timers overperform and half underperform the market.

Individual investors who hold common stocks directly pay a tremendous perfor
mance penalty for active trading. Of 66,465 households with accounts at a large
discount broker during 1991 to 1996, those that trade most earn an annual return
of 11.4 percent, while the market returns 17.9 percent. The average household
earns an annual return of 16.4 percent, tilts its common stock investment toward
high-beta, small, value stocks, and turns over 75 percent of its portfolio annually.
Overconfidence can explain high trading levels and the resulting poor performance
of individual investors. Our central message is that trading is hazardous to your
wealth.
https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers%20current%20versions/individual_investor_performance_final.pdf

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:100% G until the crash.

I was thinking of doing that too.

FACT: Almost all Market timers underperform the SP500. They can certainly
get lucky every once in a while but over time they underperform. And those that say they outperform are lying.

I would love to see some evidence cited for this “FACT”. My prior would be that half market timers overperform and half underperform the market.

I am not going to spend my time researching this for you but try to google. Tons of articles available.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:100% G until the crash.

I was thinking of doing that too.

FACT: Almost all Market timers underperform the SP500. They can certainly
get lucky every once in a while but over time they underperform. And those that say they outperform are lying.

I would love to see some evidence cited for this “FACT”. My prior would be that half market timers overperform and half underperform the market.

Individual investors who hold common stocks directly pay a tremendous perfor
mance penalty for active trading. Of 66,465 households with accounts at a large
discount broker during 1991 to 1996, those that trade most earn an annual return
of 11.4 percent, while the market returns 17.9 percent. The average household
earns an annual return of 16.4 percent, tilts its common stock investment toward
high-beta, small, value stocks, and turns over 75 percent of its portfolio annually.
Overconfidence can explain high trading levels and the resulting poor performance
of individual investors. Our central message is that trading is hazardous to your
wealth.
https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers%20current%20versions/individual_investor_performance_final.pdf

That shows there is penalty for excessive trading, not that market timing almost always fails…

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:100% G until the crash.

I was thinking of doing that too.

FACT: Almost all Market timers underperform the SP500. They can certainly
get lucky every once in a while but over time they underperform. And those that say they outperform are lying.

I would love to see some evidence cited for this “FACT”. My prior would be that half market timers overperform and half underperform the market.

I am not going to spend my time researching this for you but try to google. Tons of articles available.

FACT: people stating something is a fact on the internet without being able to back it up are almost always wrong.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:100% G until the crash.

I was thinking of doing that too.

FACT: Almost all Market timers underperform the SP500. They can certainly
get lucky every once in a while but over time they underperform. And those that say they outperform are lying.

I would love to see some evidence cited for this “FACT”. My prior would be that half market timers overperform and half underperform the market.

I am not going to spend my time researching this for you but try to google. Tons of articles available.

FACT: people stating something is a fact on the internet without being able to back it up are almost always wrong.

I don’t care what you do or believe. Do what makes you happy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:100% G until the crash.

I was thinking of doing that too.

FACT: Almost all Market timers underperform the SP500. They can certainly
get lucky every once in a while but over time they underperform. And those that say they outperform are lying.

I would love to see some evidence cited for this “FACT”. My prior would be that half market timers overperform and half underperform the market.

I am not going to spend my time researching this for you but try to google. Tons of articles available.

FACT: people stating something is a fact on the internet without being able to back it up are almost always wrong.

Read investment 101 books.

[Anonymous]

Currently I’m at 70% C and 30% S. I’d like to move to more C but don’t want to trade while S is going down.

[Anonymous]

I just moved 90% of my TSP to the G fund. I strongly believe we’re headed toward a lengthy recession and I have enough money in a taxable brokerage account that’s in the market (3x’s the value of the TSP). So this move is actually diversifying my holdings even more. I already have investments in real estate and in art. Also I wanted out of C because President Musk can suck it.

[Anonymous]

75 C% , 25 % S, 32 years old with slightly over 100k.