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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Most feds I know who sold out and put into the G fund, never timed the market correctly to get back in.  This is starting from 2008-2010 Financial Crisis.  I know it's scary.  We lost around 40% in market value during that time, but spouse and I kept it in mostly equities b/c we knew our investment horizon was more than 20 plus years at that point.  I used to have more G and F, but in the last 5 years or more, they've really sucked.  As PPs point out, owning G is losing money.  F has been even worse.  I have 90% in C,S and I.  I am 51 soon to be 52 and have $1.6M in TSP.  I am not selling equities to move to G fund and realizing the loss of Trump/Musk's craziness these last 7 weeks.  Since we won't access the TSP all at once, there is still time to recover it over time.  I'm old enough to realize that last 10 years is not normal for market returns anyway.  If we average 7% over the lifetime of the account, I would rather do that then lose it all to G.  Besides with everything they're doing US dollars will become worth even less (e.g., huge tax cuts for billionaires/wealthy, firing tons of fed workers, tariffs).[/quote]

Maybe this is a dumb question but if the C/S/I funds lost 40% wouldn't someone who sold C/S/I and bought G/F at any point during that 40% slide still be better off than someone who stayed in?

Sure it's practically impossible to time it exactly and reap that entire 40% but even if you didn't sell until 20% down and then bought back in while 30% down and it lost another 10%, you're still 10% up on someone who held the whole time, right? [/quote]

No because the person who sold at some point during the slide (statistically) did not buy back in at the bottom and experience the recovery. The person who stayed in C/S/I lost 40% but then recovered their losses plus much more over the next couple of years. The person who sold out earned much less in the G fund. [/quote]

I’m the pp who went into the G fund. I did this in the Great Recession as well. Did I sell at the top and buy at the bottom? No. I sold after the market was down 10% and bought back in at the 8000’s only to watch it fall to the 6000’s before recovering. I made more money than if I had just rode it all the way down and back up.

If I buy it right now, I get more shares than I sold when I went into G. You don’t have to be perfect, you just have to be willing to buy back in and lose some. Considering the market hasn’t even hit bear territory yet I’m not too worried about missing gains.[/quote]

So that is your win. The internet is full of people who only win. In reality for every story you hear on the internet of someone bragging about selling high and buying low, there is someone who does not want to talk about buying low and selling high.[/quote]

I’m sure there are plenty of people that don’t do well like this but the fact remains if you had sold two weeks ago and bought today, you would buy more shares than you sold. Sure it will likely go down more but when it recovers to the price two weeks ago you’ll have more money. The problem comes with people trying to get the very bottom or top. It was clear the tariffs would cause a recession. It wasn’t clear where the top was going to be and I didn’t hit it. I don’t know where the bottom is going to be but I’m not aiming for it either. I do believe it’s got a ways to go. The market has had a lot of bad days but I haven’t seen any kind of capitulation happen yet. It was after the initial capitulation that I bought back on last time.[/quote]

This is still market timing and the odds of you coming out on top are very slim.[/quote]

No, no, I have been watching the roulette wheel and black is totally due on this spin. There have been 6 reds in a row, I did the math and there is less than a 1% chance of getting red 7 times in a row. I used my system last time and it worked. I know other people's systems are flawed, but my system is a sure winner.[/quote]

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