Who in the world would buy or sell a house in the DMV right now?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Trump announces a month-long pause on Mexican tariffs after a conversation with Mexican President, who promised to send 10K soldiers to the border, per CNN.

This is exactly what we've been telling you headless chickens! Trump is not rational. He can't even follow through on his own promises. He's a mob boss who changes tactics all the time. Musk is no better. There is no way either of them can actually do the things they claimed they would do. They're incompetent.

Instead of sinking into a pit of despair and making ridiculous pronouncements on the death of the DC area, calm down and understand the nature of the beast in front of you.

I'll have to read about the latest news re Mexico, but if he got the Mexican president to agree to send 10k soldiers to the border to help stop illegal migration, there is a victory there for Trump. He was always clear about using tariffs as a cudgel to get Mexico and even Canada to agree to proactively monitor their borders on their sides.

If Musk and Co are successful at major restructuring reform of the "deep state" there could be long term implications for the region but not necessarily how some wish it. I'm reminded of Southern California when the defense plants all shut down, overnight a large and lucrative industry was gone and the region was plunged into recession territory and housing prices dropped sharply. This was late 80s-early 90s. But then California rebounded and house prices boomed and never stopped booming. The forced diversification of SoCal paid off. That may actually happen to the DMV.

You forget though that there was also a speculative bubble with banks that also contributed a lot to this. Remember the S&L Crisis of the late 1980s? That was a miniature version of the financial crisis from 2008. Go back and read some articles from that time period.

The S&L crisis was a combination of bad R/E loans in CA and some other states, plus speculative loans to oil & gas folks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Trump announces a month-long pause on Mexican tariffs after a conversation with Mexican President, who promised to send 10K soldiers to the border, per CNN.

This is exactly what we've been telling you headless chickens! Trump is not rational. He can't even follow through on his own promises. He's a mob boss who changes tactics all the time. Musk is no better. There is no way either of them can actually do the things they claimed they would do. They're incompetent.

Instead of sinking into a pit of despair and making ridiculous pronouncements on the death of the DC area, calm down and understand the nature of the beast in front of you.

I'll have to read about the latest news re Mexico, but if he got the Mexican president to agree to send 10k soldiers to the border to help stop illegal migration, there is a victory there for Trump. He was always clear about using tariffs as a cudgel to get Mexico and even Canada to agree to proactively monitor their borders on their sides.

If Musk and Co are successful at major restructuring reform of the "deep state" there could be long term implications for the region but not necessarily how some wish it. I'm reminded of Southern California when the defense plants all shut down, overnight a large and lucrative industry was gone and the region was plunged into recession territory and housing prices dropped sharply. This was late 80s-early 90s. But then California rebounded and house prices boomed and never stopped booming. The forced diversification of SoCal paid off. That may actually happen to the DMV.

I don't care whether it's a "victory" for Trump - he will certainly claim that it is. The topic is whether people in the DC are will be able to earn their living. Most of them will. Crazy people are talking about a recession and blowing their fears to gigantic, irrational proportions. They need to come down from their trip and realize that this isn't going to happen.

[Anonymous]

As someone about to list a $1.5M house in Arlington I have been fearing the worst, but the optimism on buyers is excellent news!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Trump announces a month-long pause on Mexican tariffs after a conversation with Mexican President, who promised to send 10K soldiers to the border, per CNN.

This is exactly what we've been telling you headless chickens! Trump is not rational. He can't even follow through on his own promises. He's a mob boss who changes tactics all the time. Musk is no better. There is no way either of them can actually do the things they claimed they would do. They're incompetent.

Instead of sinking into a pit of despair and making ridiculous pronouncements on the death of the DC area, calm down and understand the nature of the beast in front of you.

I'll have to read about the latest news re Mexico, but if he got the Mexican president to agree to send 10k soldiers to the border to help stop illegal migration, there is a victory there for Trump. He was always clear about using tariffs as a cudgel to get Mexico and even Canada to agree to proactively monitor their borders on their sides.

If Musk and Co are successful at major restructuring reform of the "deep state" there could be long term implications for the region but not necessarily how some wish it. I'm reminded of Southern California when the defense plants all shut down, overnight a large and lucrative industry was gone and the region was plunged into recession territory and housing prices dropped sharply. This was late 80s-early 90s. But then California rebounded and house prices boomed and never stopped booming. The forced diversification of SoCal paid off. That may actually happen to the DMV.

Getting the President of Mexico to agree to send troops they'd already committed to the border of a country which keeps talking about invading it isn't a win for Trump.

He unilaterally sank the markets and had to come back and pretend to declare victory despite saying for months he was using tariffs to bring back manufacturing to the US. Tariffs we're about the economy and now he's claiming victory on having foreign troops engaged against us at the border?

[Anonymous]

We might buy this year if the price is right. We have the capacity, it's just a question of if we see something that is worth giving up a really low rate.

[Anonymous]

We have random real estate agents calling to buy our house every week!

[Anonymous]

We were planning on selling a house in FCC that we are renting out, but if prices take a dive we might not. The decision to sell is based on not wanting the tax hit on appreciation when we do eventually sell. We moved out last year and need to sell within 3 to avoid the tax hit. But it might make sense to hold onto it.

We are also looking to buy, and even considering a house we saw yesterday, but I’m getting nervous. DH is a fed, the kind in a relatively precarious position. But we have the money for a house.

I don’t know. I feel overwhelmed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I know the news is rapid fire, but a $3MM house went on the market in CC DC about 8 days ago and is already under contract.

I guess we will see if the sale actually happens.

The real question is if a jump in inventory in say Silver Spring (as an example of a neighborhood where feds need to sell) will somehow significantly impact say CC MD where you have almost no active feds (though a bunch of retired feds).

We saw a house at an open house yesterday afternoon that we liked and it was under contract this morning at 8:45.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We were planning on selling a house in FCC that we are renting out, but if prices take a dive we might not. The decision to sell is based on not wanting the tax hit on appreciation when we do eventually sell. We moved out last year and need to sell within 3 to avoid the tax hit. But it might make sense to hold onto it.

We are also looking to buy, and even considering a house we saw yesterday, but I’m getting nervous. DH is a fed, the kind in a relatively precarious position. But we have the money for a house.

I don’t know. I feel overwhelmed.

This. There is going to be a bit of a paralysis in the local DMV real estate market as sellers and buyers assess the situation. Would you have the money for the house even if your DH got let go? How quickly could he rebound with a new job?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We were planning on selling a house in FCC that we are renting out, but if prices take a dive we might not. The decision to sell is based on not wanting the tax hit on appreciation when we do eventually sell. We moved out last year and need to sell within 3 to avoid the tax hit. But it might make sense to hold onto it.

We are also looking to buy, and even considering a house we saw yesterday, but I’m getting nervous. DH is a fed, the kind in a relatively precarious position. But we have the money for a house.

I don’t know. I feel overwhelmed.

This. There is going to be a bit of a paralysis in the local DMV real estate market as sellers and buyers assess the situation. Would you have the money for the house even if your DH got let go? How quickly could he rebound with a new job?

Yes, we have the money to buy no matter what happens to DH’s job. He is eligible for retirement, and wouldn’t need to rebound quickly to a new job. It will require a pivot but we will be ok.

[Anonymous]

Return to work will increase desirability of close in homes. The real estate market in DC remains on the upswing… how much longer, who knows. But return to work helps at least in the short term.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If someone is not getting a mortgage, and they don't care about the value of their house going down, then it's fine. Otherwise, if anyone works for the federal government, it's particularly reckless. And even for private sector employees, there's no safety because decreased public sector employment will adversely affect most private sector businesses.

There hasn’t been a safety net for private sector employment in decades. People in the private sector, especially those far removed from the fed and gov’t contractors, have learned to live with this. Some can afford the risk and buy on the dip.

This. In private sector there hasn't been job security for decades. No pensions, high premium and high deductible insurance plans, lay offs left and right, in some industries layoffs are business as usual. Many of us had been switching jobs every few years, going through multiple re-orgs when everything is turned upside down. Having multiple bosses and dealing with their whims, etc. competing with the workforce of the entire world, our wages stagnating, raises becoming measly and very difficult to get without switching jobs, and a concept of a "permanent job" becoming an oxymoron and meaning nothing more than working for free when there is no overtime for extra hours you have to put at busy times or when covering for other employees, and being a lackey doing whatever tasks outside of your job description to avoid getting laid off in the next round.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Return to work will increase desirability of close in homes. The real estate market in DC remains on the upswing… how much longer, who knows. But return to work helps at least in the short term.

2 houses in my neighborhood sold within the past couple weeks and I heard the new owners are specifically moving back to DC for this reason.

[Anonymous]

People are returning to work in DC in droves. They are looking for close-in homes near DC. After 5 years of working out of the house and moving away, people are returning and moving back.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:People are returning to work in DC in droves. They are looking for close-in homes near DC. After 5 years of working out of the house and moving away, people are returning and moving back.

He is firing 1/2 the federal work force and moving the rest. There are 4 time the number of contractors vs federal employees. Those people are gone. There will be a huge glut of housing as people are forced to sell.