How accurate was Collegevine?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:It says the state flagship (UVA) is DC’s safety with 93% acceptance chance for the intended major. but people here said the school should be nobody’s safety. So, still confused.

Absolutely wrong. There is NO WAY CV lists 93% chance of acceptance for UVA. Wise perhaps. You could list 5.0, 1600, NMSF, ending world hunger, URM, Alumni kid, 1st gen and recruited athlete and the BEST you could hope for is less than 50%.

“Kids do get into UVA so some do have high chances of it.”

People win the lottery but that doesn’t mean anyone had a high chance of it. This is flawed logic.

I have a CS degree, so logic is basically how I make money. Comparing this to a lottery is not logical at all. This is a statistics issue, and you need far more information to make a statement with any sort of authority. You don’t know what algorithms are used, or the qualifications of the person who posted or the program to which they were applying or their geographic location. There are way too many I knowns to state someone was “absolutely wrong” when there are clearly many kids each year who get into UMCP for a vast variety of reasons.

A lottery is a simple randomization.

Absolutely wrong that you could get a 93% chance of acceptance to UVA using CollegeVine.

Okay…..that’s not actually relevant to the conversation. The relevant part would be whether or not the person did get into UVA.

Relevant? What is the name of the discussion? First posting in this conversation references the chancing % in question.

Whether it’s relevant to tell someone that there’s no way Collegevine said that, when it’s just a pissing contest to be right that this random stranger is lying on an anonymous site is not relevant.

She’s not lying. I’ve played with the variables. She clearly did UVA at Wise. Easy mistake to make. Let’s move on. Anyone who thinks this could be UVA Main is mistaken as I attempted all possible variables and it cannot happen. But at Wise, she’s at an expected percentage. I don’t think it’s fair to malign CV over this.

Thank you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Rejected at 2 listed as safety, wl at 1 hard target, 1 target, 1 safety, accepted at rest all listed as safety (but VT shouldn’t have been a safety for major/nova student). So not completely off (waitlists at targets) but the only rejections we’re considered “safety” by them but in naviance were def not safety

Several people on here have said VT was listed as a safety and their kid got in but they think it shouldn’t have been one for the major. Did anyone have it listed as a safety and their kid did not get in?

[Anonymous]

2 safety - 1 accepted with merit/honors, 1 denied (much to our shock)

1 target - accepted with merit/honors

5 reach - 3 denied (including ED), 2 WL

2 hard target - 1 denied, 1 WL then accepted (where DC is finally attending)

It's been a wild ride...

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:It says the state flagship (UVA) is DC’s safety with 93% acceptance chance for the intended major. but people here said the school should be nobody’s safety. So, still confused.

Absolutely wrong. There is NO WAY CV lists 93% chance of acceptance for UVA. Wise perhaps. You could list 5.0, 1600, NMSF, ending world hunger, URM, Alumni kid, 1st gen and recruited athlete and the BEST you could hope for is less than 50%.

“Kids do get into UVA so some do have high chances of it.”

People win the lottery but that doesn’t mean anyone had a high chance of it. This is flawed logic.

I have a CS degree, so logic is basically how I make money. Comparing this to a lottery is not logical at all. This is a statistics issue, and you need far more information to make a statement with any sort of authority. You don’t know what algorithms are used, or the qualifications of the person who posted or the program to which they were applying or their geographic location. There are way too many I knowns to state someone was “absolutely wrong” when there are clearly many kids each year who get into UMCP for a vast variety of reasons.

A lottery is a simple randomization.

Absolutely wrong that you could get a 93% chance of acceptance to UVA using CollegeVine.

Okay…..that’s not actually relevant to the conversation. The relevant part would be whether or not the person did get into UVA.

Relevant? What is the name of the discussion? First posting in this conversation references the chancing % in question.

Whether it’s relevant to tell someone that there’s no way Collegevine said that, when it’s just a pissing contest to be right that this random stranger is lying on an anonymous site is not relevant.

No one called the poster a liar.

[Anonymous]

100% accurate.

[Anonymous]

For those who used Collegevine, how did its predictions compare to your school specific scatterplots? I’m finding CV to be more pessimistic with targets and safeties than our school data, though we don’t yet have data for 2023 class uploaded yet.

[Anonymous]

The scattergram can be misleading and make you overly optimistic if not every student completes it. Typically, those who are denied admission may be unwilling to share their results.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:For those who used Collegevine, how did its predictions compare to your school specific scatterplots? I’m finding CV to be more pessimistic with targets and safeties than our school data, though we don’t yet have data for 2023 class uploaded yet.

Pessimistic = accurate. We totally ignored the "chancing" provided by Scattergram. Looked at for curiosity but in our case, a six year history is not an accurate representation of TODAY. One of the previous posters that found CV VERY accurate, even with a competitive major.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For those who used Collegevine, how did its predictions compare to your school specific scatterplots? I’m finding CV to be more pessimistic with targets and safeties than our school data, though we don’t yet have data for 2023 class uploaded yet.

Pessimistic = accurate. We totally ignored the "chancing" provided by Scattergram. Looked at for curiosity but in our case, a six year history is not an accurate representation of TODAY. One of the previous posters that found CV VERY accurate, even with a competitive major.

I thought it was too pessimistic for my high stats kid but they got into none of their reaches - all of their target & safeties according to CollegeVine. Whole process was depressing

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It says the state flagship (UVA) is DC’s safety with 93% acceptance chance for the intended major. but people here said the school should be nobody’s safety. So, still confused.

Absolutely wrong. There is NO WAY CV lists 93% chance of acceptance for UVA. Wise perhaps. You could list 5.0, 1600, NMSF, ending world hunger, URM, Alumni kid, 1st gen and recruited athlete and the BEST you could hope for is less than 50%.

“Kids do get into UVA so some do have high chances of it.”

People win the lottery but that doesn’t mean anyone had a high chance of it. This is flawed logic.

I have a CS degree, so logic is basically how I make money. Comparing this to a lottery is not logical at all. This is a statistics issue, and you need far more information to make a statement with any sort of authority. You don’t know what algorithms are used, or the qualifications of the person who posted or the program to which they were applying or their geographic location. There are way too many I knowns to state someone was “absolutely wrong” when there are clearly many kids each year who get into UMCP for a vast variety of reasons.

A lottery is a simple randomization.

But one big factor is probably near random considerations, such as where you are in the pile and how burned out the application readers are.

[Anonymous]

My kid didn't get into UIUC, Virginia tech, University of Washington - where collegevine's chances are 70%+
But he got into Michigan with 16% chance.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:I’m curious, too. When I look at it for my almost rising senior from MCPS, I feel like it overestimates chances at some highly competitive SLACs like Middlebury and Wesleyan compared to our school’s Scattergrams, which show far less success. In contrast, I feel like some target percentiles for schools like Oberlin or F&M are too cautious, where everyone gets in from our school with my kid’s stats.

OP here: I was asking because it listed UMCP as a target and SUNY Binghamton as a High Target for my daughter who has no APs and want to apply to an engineering program, no SAT yet and it recommended applying test optimal. She has a 4.0 UW GPA but based on these boards she’s a degenerate imbecile who shouldn’t even dare to look at the UMCP campus from a car window.

My kid had a 4.2 and was accepted to UMD test optional.

I considered Maryland a high and uncertain target. We definitely did not consider acceptance a sure bet.

I suspect the essays and geography provided a bump.

The engineering program might be a reach without APs, because they look at course rigor. You never know, though!

Yeah, I think so also, but she will be in a part-time MCPS engineering-related program also for 2 years, so hopefully that will help show her desire and aptitude. Ve told her it’s not a sure bet, and for now she’s also very interested in JMU, and some others are places we need to look into further. I think she’d have no issues getting into the SUNY that I graduated from, so that’s a good backup. It’s a good program too.

If you’re the OP: Why won’t she have any AP classes?

My son went to a school with terrible STEM AP teachers, because, apparently, there’s such a shortage of STEM AP teachers that the only qualifications expected are AP certification plus not currently being in prison for ax murder. But, if your daughter is in that situation, maybe she could enroll in the terrible AP Calculus class that happens to be available and max out on tutoring.

My recollection is that the first two computer science classes for majors at my university — which was comparable to Tufts and not highly ranked for CS — were difficult and time-consuming. Given how popular CS today, and how expensive it is to offer, I’d think that schools must face a lot of financial pressure to turn CS majors into math or physics majors as quickly as possible, and that it’s critical for CS students to go in over-prepared for the first-year classes. If most other kids in the program would have had Calculus AB, I’d want my son to go in with Calculus AB, if that’s possible, even if he didn’t put the AP test results in the application.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My kid didn't get into UIUC, Virginia tech, University of Washington - where collegevine's chances are 70%+
But he got into Michigan with 16% chance.

WOW. Congrats on Michigan!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My kid didn't get into UIUC, Virginia tech, University of Washington - where collegevine's chances are 70%+
But he got into Michigan with 16% chance.

WOW. Congrats on Michigan!

Yet another example of the insanity I have another kid this year and I'm telling them to apply to many more schools. There seemed to be little rhyme or reason to the process this year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My kid didn't get into UIUC, Virginia tech, University of Washington - where collegevine's chances are 70%+
But he got into Michigan with 16% chance.

WOW. Congrats on Michigan!

Yet another example of the insanity I have another kid this year and I'm telling them to apply to many more schools. There seemed to be little rhyme or reason to the process this year.

Yep. My kid was accepted by BU (11%) with merit and waitlisted at UVA in-state (26%). Institutional priorities! (Enrolling at UMD).