How accurate was Collegevine?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m curious, too. When I look at it for my almost rising senior from MCPS, I feel like it overestimates chances at some highly competitive SLACs like Middlebury and Wesleyan compared to our school’s Scattergrams, which show far less success. In contrast, I feel like some target percentiles for schools like Oberlin or F&M are too cautious, where everyone gets in from our school with my kid’s stats.

OP here: I was asking because it listed UMCP as a target and SUNY Binghamton as a High Target for my daughter who has no APs and want to apply to an engineering program, no SAT yet and it recommended applying test optimal. She has a 4.0 UW GPA but based on these boards she’s a degenerate imbecile who shouldn’t even dare to look at the UMCP campus from a car window.

thanks for keeping DCUM POV in perspective

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:UMD is listed as a safety for my kid and I’d say it’s a target. I think they’ve overestimated chances for 2023 for UMD.

CV added more data this school year that seemed to make the predictors a bit more realistic imho.

CV does ask for intended major. However, I’m not sure what they consider in their chancing. I think they changed some stuff this year and this could be a piece of that but I don’t know. There’s some info in their forum from an employee.

My kid’s chance percentage significantly decreases across most schools when he picked another major to “test” CV’s algorithm.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:UMD is listed as a safety for my kid and I’d say it’s a target. I think they’ve overestimated chances for 2023 for UMD.

CV added more data this school year that seemed to make the predictors a bit more realistic imho.

CV does ask for intended major. However, I’m not sure what they consider in their chancing. I think they changed some stuff this year and this could be a piece of that but I don’t know. There’s some info in their forum from an employee.

My kid’s chance percentage significantly decreases across most schools when he picked another major to “test” CV’s algorithm.

They do take major into account. My daughter being a female applying to Engineering seems a factor in the chancing. She’s also heard from engineering majors at UMCP that some of the girls have lower stats for admission. I was also a female applying to engineering a couple decades back and I’m sure it helped me. That said, every step after that was somewhat more difficult so I didn’t feel too guilty over it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Totally off for my DC - very high stats magnet kid, CS major.

Same profile here.

Reach = all rejections except for one WL (despite 20% chance on all)
Target = all acceptances except WL at one with 59%
Safety = all acceptances except denied at UIUC for CS

[Anonymous]

Any thoughts on the CollegeVine rankings?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Totally off for my DC - very high stats magnet kid, CS major.

Same profile here.

Reach = all rejections except for one WL (despite 20% chance on all)
Target = all acceptances except WL at one with 59%
Safety = all acceptances except denied at UIUC for CS

That doesn’t seem too bad, actually, if the child were happy with most of the applications. What year was it? I’ve heard 2021 was super off. Hoping it will get better with more and more data after that pandemic surge.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Totally off for my DC - very high stats magnet kid, CS major.

Same profile here.

Reach = all rejections except for one WL (despite 20% chance on all)
Target = all acceptances except WL at one with 59%
Safety = all acceptances except denied at UIUC for CS

How can there chancing be off when it says you only had a 20% chance to get into a reach school? In other words there was an 80% chance that your child wasn’t going to get in and therefore the algorithm is correct.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It says the state flagship (UVA) is DC’s safety with 93% acceptance chance for the intended major. but people here said the school should be nobody’s safety. So, still confused.

Absolutely wrong. There is NO WAY CV lists 93% chance of acceptance for UVA. Wise perhaps. You could list 5.0, 1600, NMSF, ending world hunger, URM, Alumni kid, 1st gen and recruited athlete and the BEST you could hope for is less than 50%.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It says the state flagship (UVA) is DC’s safety with 93% acceptance chance for the intended major. but people here said the school should be nobody’s safety. So, still confused.

Absolutely wrong. There is NO WAY CV lists 93% chance of acceptance for UVA. Wise perhaps. You could list 5.0, 1600, NMSF, ending world hunger, URM, Alumni kid, 1st gen and recruited athlete and the BEST you could hope for is less than 50%.

How can you make a statement like this with absolutely no information other than that chancing? Kids do get into UVA so some do have high chances of it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It says the state flagship (UVA) is DC’s safety with 93% acceptance chance for the intended major. but people here said the school should be nobody’s safety. So, still confused.

Absolutely wrong. There is NO WAY CV lists 93% chance of acceptance for UVA. Wise perhaps. You could list 5.0, 1600, NMSF, ending world hunger, URM, Alumni kid, 1st gen and recruited athlete and the BEST you could hope for is less than 50%.

How can you make a statement like this with absolutely no information other than that chancing? Kids do get into UVA so some do have high chances of it.

They based their statement on CV. Maybe read it again? NP but it looks like they entered it into the CV chancing simulator. When I change mine to perfect 1600 stats with 20 APs, I have a 46% chance at UVA. I also didn’t change my demographics. If I change it to a very underrepresented demographic, I can get over 50%. Max I see possible with Tier 1 EC is 67%.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It says the state flagship (UVA) is DC’s safety with 93% acceptance chance for the intended major. but people here said the school should be nobody’s safety. So, still confused.

Absolutely wrong. There is NO WAY CV lists 93% chance of acceptance for UVA. Wise perhaps. You could list 5.0, 1600, NMSF, ending world hunger, URM, Alumni kid, 1st gen and recruited athlete and the BEST you could hope for is less than 50%.

How can you make a statement like this with absolutely no information other than that chancing? Kids do get into UVA so some do have high chances of it.

They based their statement on CV. Maybe read it again? NP but it looks like they entered it into the CV chancing simulator. When I change mine to perfect 1600 stats with 20 APs, I have a 46% chance at UVA. I also didn’t change my demographics. If I change it to a very underrepresented demographic, I can get over 50%. Max I see possible with Tier 1 EC is 67%.

I did read it. I just meant we didn’t know what they put into the system. I didn’t do the combinations of how many ways you could alter the data to get a result, but as a programmer, you’d need more data to figure out how that number came up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It says the state flagship (UVA) is DC’s safety with 93% acceptance chance for the intended major. but people here said the school should be nobody’s safety. So, still confused.

Absolutely wrong. There is NO WAY CV lists 93% chance of acceptance for UVA. Wise perhaps. You could list 5.0, 1600, NMSF, ending world hunger, URM, Alumni kid, 1st gen and recruited athlete and the BEST you could hope for is less than 50%.

“Kids do get into UVA so some do have high chances of it.”

People win the lottery but that doesn’t mean anyone had a high chance of it. This is flawed logic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Totally off for my DC - very high stats magnet kid, CS major.

Yup. Same.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It says the state flagship (UVA) is DC’s safety with 93% acceptance chance for the intended major. but people here said the school should be nobody’s safety. So, still confused.

Absolutely wrong. There is NO WAY CV lists 93% chance of acceptance for UVA. Wise perhaps. You could list 5.0, 1600, NMSF, ending world hunger, URM, Alumni kid, 1st gen and recruited athlete and the BEST you could hope for is less than 50%.

How can you make a statement like this with absolutely no information other than that chancing? Kids do get into UVA so some do have high chances of it.

What are you talking about? I'm referring to the validity of getting a 93% chance of admissions to UVA on CV. Don't think it's possible.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Totally off for my DC - very high stats magnet kid, CS major.

Same profile here.

Reach = all rejections except for one WL (despite 20% chance on all)
Target = all acceptances except WL at one with 59%
Safety = all acceptances except denied at UIUC for CS

UIUC CS is not a safety for anyone.