How accurate was Collegevine?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Totally off for my DC - very high stats magnet kid, CS major.

Same profile here.

Reach = all rejections except for one WL (despite 20% chance on all)
Target = all acceptances except WL at one with 59%
Safety = all acceptances except denied at UIUC for CS

UIUC CS is not a safety for anyone.

Exactly. Pointing out that CV was not accurate. Also forgot my kid had 2 WL on the target list. So it was (unfortunately) close there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:100% for my kid this admission cycle. Shocked.

So what cutoff did you use to decide you wanted to apply? I recall CV listing % probability of a kid getting in. Where was your cutoff?

PP...If he liked the school he applied regardless of chance. Simply made sure he had sufficient targets/safeties. Also had one rolling and applied EA where possible. No EDs.
Reach: 2 denials
Hard Target: 1 acceptance, 2 waitlist
Target/Safeties: 7 acceptances.

One item of note, I don't think CV differentiates for intended major/school. The school he ultimately chose was designated as a safety, but considering major, think Target was more appropriate.

Good point.

Syracuse U was a reach for my student due to the major, which has an 8-15% acceptance rate.

Overall acceptance is 60% or so.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m curious, too. When I look at it for my almost rising senior from MCPS, I feel like it overestimates chances at some highly competitive SLACs like Middlebury and Wesleyan compared to our school’s Scattergrams, which show far less success. In contrast, I feel like some target percentiles for schools like Oberlin or F&M are too cautious, where everyone gets in from our school with my kid’s stats.

OP here: I was asking because it listed UMCP as a target and SUNY Binghamton as a High Target for my daughter who has no APs and want to apply to an engineering program, no SAT yet and it recommended applying test optimal. She has a 4.0 UW GPA but based on these boards she’s a degenerate imbecile who shouldn’t even dare to look at the UMCP campus from a car window.

My kid had a 4.2 and was accepted to UMD test optional.

I considered Maryland a high and uncertain target. We definitely did not consider acceptance a sure bet.

I suspect the essays and geography provided a bump.

The engineering program might be a reach without APs, because they look at course rigor. You never know, though!

[Anonymous]

I can't imagine it being too accurate

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m curious, too. When I look at it for my almost rising senior from MCPS, I feel like it overestimates chances at some highly competitive SLACs like Middlebury and Wesleyan compared to our school’s Scattergrams, which show far less success. In contrast, I feel like some target percentiles for schools like Oberlin or F&M are too cautious, where everyone gets in from our school with my kid’s stats.

OP here: I was asking because it listed UMCP as a target and SUNY Binghamton as a High Target for my daughter who has no APs and want to apply to an engineering program, no SAT yet and it recommended applying test optimal. She has a 4.0 UW GPA but based on these boards she’s a degenerate imbecile who shouldn’t even dare to look at the UMCP campus from a car window.

My kid had a 4.2 and was accepted to UMD test optional.

I considered Maryland a high and uncertain target. We definitely did not consider acceptance a sure bet.

I suspect the essays and geography provided a bump.

The engineering program might be a reach without APs, because they look at course rigor. You never know, though!

Yeah, I think so also, but she will be in a part-time MCPS engineering-related program also for 2 years, so hopefully that will help show her desire and aptitude. Ve told her it’s not a sure bet, and for now she’s also very interested in JMU, and some others are places we need to look into further. I think she’d have no issues getting into the SUNY that I graduated from, so that’s a good backup. It’s a good program too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It says the state flagship (UVA) is DC’s safety with 93% acceptance chance for the intended major. but people here said the school should be nobody’s safety. So, still confused.

Absolutely wrong. There is NO WAY CV lists 93% chance of acceptance for UVA. Wise perhaps. You could list 5.0, 1600, NMSF, ending world hunger, URM, Alumni kid, 1st gen and recruited athlete and the BEST you could hope for is less than 50%.

“Kids do get into UVA so some do have high chances of it.”

People win the lottery but that doesn’t mean anyone had a high chance of it. This is flawed logic.

I have a CS degree, so logic is basically how I make money. Comparing this to a lottery is not logical at all. This is a statistics issue, and you need far more information to make a statement with any sort of authority. You don’t know what algorithms are used, or the qualifications of the person who posted or the program to which they were applying or their geographic location. There are way too many I knowns to state someone was “absolutely wrong” when there are clearly many kids each year who get into UMCP for a vast variety of reasons.

A lottery is a simple randomization.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It says the state flagship (UVA) is DC’s safety with 93% acceptance chance for the intended major. but people here said the school should be nobody’s safety. So, still confused.

Absolutely wrong. There is NO WAY CV lists 93% chance of acceptance for UVA. Wise perhaps. You could list 5.0, 1600, NMSF, ending world hunger, URM, Alumni kid, 1st gen and recruited athlete and the BEST you could hope for is less than 50%.

“Kids do get into UVA so some do have high chances of it.”

People win the lottery but that doesn’t mean anyone had a high chance of it. This is flawed logic.

I have a CS degree, so logic is basically how I make money. Comparing this to a lottery is not logical at all. This is a statistics issue, and you need far more information to make a statement with any sort of authority. You don’t know what algorithms are used, or the qualifications of the person who posted or the program to which they were applying or their geographic location. There are way too many I knowns to state someone was “absolutely wrong” when there are clearly many kids each year who get into UMCP for a vast variety of reasons.

A lottery is a simple randomization.

*UVA

[Anonymous]

2 safety =
both accepted
- UMD was included here and we considered it a safety but it probably wasn't given what we saw in UMD admissions

2 target =
both accepted
- very surprised one of these was target - it was a safety in our view and large merit that came with it also suggested it was more like a safety

8 reach =
1 accepted
1 accepted via alternative pathway
3 WL (these were >20% predicted)
3 Deny

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It says the state flagship (UVA) is DC’s safety with 93% acceptance chance for the intended major. but people here said the school should be nobody’s safety. So, still confused.

Absolutely wrong. There is NO WAY CV lists 93% chance of acceptance for UVA. Wise perhaps. You could list 5.0, 1600, NMSF, ending world hunger, URM, Alumni kid, 1st gen and recruited athlete and the BEST you could hope for is less than 50%.

“Kids do get into UVA so some do have high chances of it.”

People win the lottery but that doesn’t mean anyone had a high chance of it. This is flawed logic.

I have a CS degree, so logic is basically how I make money. Comparing this to a lottery is not logical at all. This is a statistics issue, and you need far more information to make a statement with any sort of authority. You don’t know what algorithms are used, or the qualifications of the person who posted or the program to which they were applying or their geographic location. There are way too many I knowns to state someone was “absolutely wrong” when there are clearly many kids each year who get into UMCP for a vast variety of reasons.

A lottery is a simple randomization.

Absolutely wrong that you could get a 93% chance of acceptance to UVA using CollegeVine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It says the state flagship (UVA) is DC’s safety with 93% acceptance chance for the intended major. but people here said the school should be nobody’s safety. So, still confused.

Absolutely wrong. There is NO WAY CV lists 93% chance of acceptance for UVA. Wise perhaps. You could list 5.0, 1600, NMSF, ending world hunger, URM, Alumni kid, 1st gen and recruited athlete and the BEST you could hope for is less than 50%.

“Kids do get into UVA so some do have high chances of it.”

People win the lottery but that doesn’t mean anyone had a high chance of it. This is flawed logic.

I have a CS degree, so logic is basically how I make money. Comparing this to a lottery is not logical at all. This is a statistics issue, and you need far more information to make a statement with any sort of authority. You don’t know what algorithms are used, or the qualifications of the person who posted or the program to which they were applying or their geographic location. There are way too many I knowns to state someone was “absolutely wrong” when there are clearly many kids each year who get into UMCP for a vast variety of reasons.

A lottery is a simple randomization.

Absolutely wrong that you could get a 93% chance of acceptance to UVA using CollegeVine.

Okay…..that’s not actually relevant to the conversation. The relevant part would be whether or not the person did get into UVA.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:2 safety =
both accepted
- UMD was included here and we considered it a safety but it probably wasn't given what we saw in UMD admissions

2 target =
both accepted
- very surprised one of these was target - it was a safety in our view and large merit that came with it also suggested it was more like a safety

8 reach =
1 accepted
1 accepted via alternative pathway
3 WL (these were >20% predicted)
3 Deny

Not bad!!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It says the state flagship (UVA) is DC’s safety with 93% acceptance chance for the intended major. but people here said the school should be nobody’s safety. So, still confused.

Absolutely wrong. There is NO WAY CV lists 93% chance of acceptance for UVA. Wise perhaps. You could list 5.0, 1600, NMSF, ending world hunger, URM, Alumni kid, 1st gen and recruited athlete and the BEST you could hope for is less than 50%.

“Kids do get into UVA so some do have high chances of it.”

People win the lottery but that doesn’t mean anyone had a high chance of it. This is flawed logic.

I have a CS degree, so logic is basically how I make money. Comparing this to a lottery is not logical at all. This is a statistics issue, and you need far more information to make a statement with any sort of authority. You don’t know what algorithms are used, or the qualifications of the person who posted or the program to which they were applying or their geographic location. There are way too many I knowns to state someone was “absolutely wrong” when there are clearly many kids each year who get into UMCP for a vast variety of reasons.

A lottery is a simple randomization.

Absolutely wrong that you could get a 93% chance of acceptance to UVA using CollegeVine.

Okay…..that’s not actually relevant to the conversation. The relevant part would be whether or not the person did get into UVA.

Relevant? What is the name of the discussion? First posting in this conversation references the chancing % in question.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It says the state flagship (UVA) is DC’s safety with 93% acceptance chance for the intended major. but people here said the school should be nobody’s safety. So, still confused.

Absolutely wrong. There is NO WAY CV lists 93% chance of acceptance for UVA. Wise perhaps. You could list 5.0, 1600, NMSF, ending world hunger, URM, Alumni kid, 1st gen and recruited athlete and the BEST you could hope for is less than 50%.

“Kids do get into UVA so some do have high chances of it.”

People win the lottery but that doesn’t mean anyone had a high chance of it. This is flawed logic.

I have a CS degree, so logic is basically how I make money. Comparing this to a lottery is not logical at all. This is a statistics issue, and you need far more information to make a statement with any sort of authority. You don’t know what algorithms are used, or the qualifications of the person who posted or the program to which they were applying or their geographic location. There are way too many I knowns to state someone was “absolutely wrong” when there are clearly many kids each year who get into UMCP for a vast variety of reasons.

A lottery is a simple randomization.

Absolutely wrong that you could get a 93% chance of acceptance to UVA using CollegeVine.

Okay…..that’s not actually relevant to the conversation. The relevant part would be whether or not the person did get into UVA.

Relevant? What is the name of the discussion? First posting in this conversation references the chancing % in question.

Whether it’s relevant to tell someone that there’s no way Collegevine said that, when it’s just a pissing contest to be right that this random stranger is lying on an anonymous site is not relevant.

[Anonymous]

Rejected at 2 listed as safety, wl at 1 hard target, 1 target, 1 safety, accepted at rest all listed as safety (but VT shouldn’t have been a safety for major/nova student). So not completely off (waitlists at targets) but the only rejections we’re considered “safety” by them but in naviance were def not safety

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It says the state flagship (UVA) is DC’s safety with 93% acceptance chance for the intended major. but people here said the school should be nobody’s safety. So, still confused.

Absolutely wrong. There is NO WAY CV lists 93% chance of acceptance for UVA. Wise perhaps. You could list 5.0, 1600, NMSF, ending world hunger, URM, Alumni kid, 1st gen and recruited athlete and the BEST you could hope for is less than 50%.

“Kids do get into UVA so some do have high chances of it.”

People win the lottery but that doesn’t mean anyone had a high chance of it. This is flawed logic.

I have a CS degree, so logic is basically how I make money. Comparing this to a lottery is not logical at all. This is a statistics issue, and you need far more information to make a statement with any sort of authority. You don’t know what algorithms are used, or the qualifications of the person who posted or the program to which they were applying or their geographic location. There are way too many I knowns to state someone was “absolutely wrong” when there are clearly many kids each year who get into UMCP for a vast variety of reasons.

A lottery is a simple randomization.

Absolutely wrong that you could get a 93% chance of acceptance to UVA using CollegeVine.

Okay…..that’s not actually relevant to the conversation. The relevant part would be whether or not the person did get into UVA.

Relevant? What is the name of the discussion? First posting in this conversation references the chancing % in question.

Whether it’s relevant to tell someone that there’s no way Collegevine said that, when it’s just a pissing contest to be right that this random stranger is lying on an anonymous site is not relevant.

She’s not lying. I’ve played with the variables. She clearly did UVA at Wise. Easy mistake to make. Let’s move on. Anyone who thinks this could be UVA Main is mistaken as I attempted all possible variables and it cannot happen. But at Wise, she’s at an expected percentage. I don’t think it’s fair to malign CV over this.