They took out athletes, legacy and a critical but unknown “etc.” We do not know what that etc. means. |
This data is amazing. Than you. What saddens me as a GDS parent is that they never once shared data like this with us. It was always a game to try to figure out the tone of the college counselor.
"What are my chances at XYZ?" "Well if it's in your heart, you should apply" WTF is that supposed to mean. We have no naviance. and they fall back on holistic review blah blah. All I needed from the office is to tell me and my kid- should they apply to these schools and what's GDS historic record for unhooked kids in that GPA range. We could never get a straight answer. It was always couched in feel good language. I know GDS keeps such a list but they just don't share it w/ parents - even when direct questions are asked. Are Sidwell/Potomac/Albans/NCS any better? |
STA definitely gave my kid similar data and defined schools as reaches, targets (which is 50/50, not likely) and safeties. It was very accurate for my kid’s results. |
This data is fascinating. I moved it to a spreadsheet and crunched it.
A few observations: For schools for which > 20 kids applied 2019-2021 And who had overall acceptance rates below 20% e.g., the most selective schools... I looked at the dropoff in acceptance rate between the 3.8 to 4.0 GPA tier and the 3.6 to 3.79 GPA tier. what I actually did was 3.6-3.799 acceptance % / 3.8 to 4.0 acceptance %. The dropoff is stark Princeton 0% (0% of the 3.6-3.799 kids got in vs. the 3.8+. Harvard 0% MIT 0% Amherst 0% Williams 0% UCI 7% Columbia 15% UVA 16% JHU 18% Vandy 21% Dartmouth 22% Yale 27% UCLA 28% NW 31% Other end of the spectrum... Wesleyan 54% BC 58% Middlebury 60% Cornell 76% Barnard 79% Tufts 81% WashU 86% BU 89% Basically don't bother applying to most of those in the top list if you dont have a 3.8+ by end of junior year. You are truly doing a super-duper reach.... perhaps not new news but for parents who dont see this data from their $50k a year private school in DC< this data is eye-opening |
Interesting. I do think that this is likely over a very small sample set, since HW didn’t define what they mean by their “etc.” So I would caution weighting this too heavily. |
HW is really rigorous academically—definitely comparable to the DC big 3. |
+1 on GDS lacking specifics. Couldn't GDS aggregate the data from the last 5 years for any school where more than 10 student applied? I want to see numbers, statistics, and specifics. I can't believe the amount of time that was wasted at the junior parents evening where they told parents this was a student guided process. First of all, that's baloney--everything from finances to visiting schools is done in concert with parents, obviously. Second, the lack of detailed information makes the CCO office seem unprofessional. Don't they crunch numbers? Don't they have insights about trends that GDS students can use to inform their choices? The lack of guidance has been really disappointing. I could go anywhere for generalized info. The GDS office needs to provide information specific to GDS--how do kids with certain SAT scores do? How well does GDS fare with SLACs vs large state universities? What is the statistical advantage to applying ED? GDS parents are a smart bunch, we understand that these numbers are no guarantee, but the GDS CCO would endear itself to parents if it provided useful content to parents that was specific to GDS applicants. |
You're also looking at acceptances vs. matriculations. |
Do you have access to previous students’ acceptance through SCOIR scattergrams? We are at a different school and found them directionally helpful to somewhat gauge reasonability of consideration. |
If GDS provided data like this, how many parents would reconsider their tuition "investment"? |
GDS does not allow students or families access to SCOIR scattergrams. CCO is not at all forthcoming with statistics, which severely erodes trust in the CCO. I do not understand how the CCO fails to grasp this. Transparency breeds trust. |
But HW also has huge numbers to Chicago, and they appear to be kids one tier below the top kids (based on GPA). |
Parents are reconsidering their tuition investment because there is so little data. At least with info like HW, St. Albans, and other peer schools, it would seem like the CCO was actually providing data-backed guidance. Right now, the vibe is "we don't want to give info because we think parents are going to raise a stink." Also, when you have a third to a half of GDS families hiring outside college counselors, many are already reconsidering their tuition "investment." |
Most of the STA kids are one tier below top GPA too, some even far below (though I have no doubt these kids can handle the college work). My point is more that you are splitting hairs and getting into the weeds doesn’t serve a lot of purpose bc sample sizes are so small. HW acceptances fairly on par with DC privates. |
What are you considering a 3.8 to be equivalent to? Seems like an A- or low 90s. That’s not that unusual is it? |