Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Trying to time the bottom is a fool’s errand. That being said, we can always make an educated estimate.
The average annualized S&P 500 return since 1957 has been 11.88%. The two most significant recent bottoms were in March 2009 (approximately 13.5 years ago at 677) and then again in March 2020 (approximately 2.5 years ago at 2237). The 2009 bottom propagated forward to today would have put the S&P 500 at:
677 * (1.1188^13.5) = 3081
The 2020 bottom propagated forward to today would have put the S&P 500 at:
2237 * (1.1188^2.5) = 2962
These are pretty close, as one might expect from legitimate corrections, with the average being 3021. So, my guess is that a reasonable estimate for the S&P 500 bottom today is around 3021 and, therefore, that we still have room to fall. But, the S&P 500 historically grows at a rate of about 11.88% YoY or 0.93% MoM. With each passing month, our estimate for the S&P 500 bottom needs to increase, perhaps as follows:
10/22: 3021 * 1.0093^0 = 3021
11/22: 3021 * 1.0093^1 = 3049
12/22: 3021 * 1.0093^2 = 3077
01/23: 3021 * 1.0093^3 = 3106
02/23: 3021 * 1.0093^4 = 3135
03/23: 3021 * 1.0093^5 = 3164
04/23: 3021 * 1.0093^6 = 3194
05/23: 3021 * 1.0093^7 = 3223
06/23: 3021 * 1.0093^8 = 3253
07/23: 3021 * 1.0093^9 = 3283
08/23: 3021 * 1.0093^10 = 3314
09/23: 3021 * 1.0093^11 = 3345
10/23: 3021 * 1.0093^12 = 3376
11/23: 3021 * 1.0093^13 = 3407
12/23: 3021 * 1.0093^14 = 3439
When the actual S&P 500 intersects the estimated trajectory of the above, I suspect we’ll be at or near the bottom. The sooner the correction is over, the better.
In theory this is at least educated but has no relevance to the market now or in the future. No analysis knows when the market will bottom..that is why investing is a long game
Incorrect. This analysis is highly correlated with current market conditions. To suggest that it isn’t is to ignore the impact of future earnings estimates on society’s perceptions of appropriately valued stock prices. You can certainly dollar cost average your way to long-term gains, but it likely won’t be until 2027 that the S&P 500 regains it’s previous peak value of 4819. Meanwhile, those that liquidated into cash when both stocks and bonds were
obviously overvalued and then followed the above analytical recipe will have gained 60% more wealth than their DCA counterparts.
Keep drinking your kool-aid. No "analyst" has any clue what the market will do in the next month, let alone in 2027.
If you were the ONE person in the world who knows, then what are you doing commenting on a blog.
There are thousands of analysts that spend all day trying to identify this and they are wrong the vast majority of the time:
https://fortune.com/2022/10/13/best-minds-on-wall-street-stock-market-predictions/
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/business/omicron-stock-market-forecasts.html
Keep thinking you're the guy! For 99.99% of investors, investing regularly regardless of what is happening is the best way to build weatlh
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