Grabbing the bottom of the market
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Anonymous
| There seems to be a lot of people sitting in cash. As for me, I’ve been in and out of the market this year. I’m up about 5%, but it’s been frustrating. I admit I’m trying to grab the near-bottom, which I know is a treacherous endeavor. Anybody else trying to do the same? If so, when will you make the plunge? |
Anonymous
When you tell us clown |
Anonymous
| No. I have one stock and I bought it two years ago. It is still up 200% and is on discount right now. I'm hoping to get rid of my farm and buy some more of that stock. |
Anonymous
| Let us know when we've hit bottom. Thx |
Anonymous
| I don't think we've hit bottom. |
Anonymous
|
Depends for which stock, since there's the overall turns of the market, but also specific reasons why a company would do better or worse than the market, as well as psychological bumps due to quarterly reports. For my target stock, with high-tech products made in China, zero-Covid policies are definitely having an impact, and chip shortages are also at play. The exchange rate is both good and bad, given overseas sales. I expect to buy again in a couple of weeks right before, and then possibly after (depending on) their quarterly report. |
Anonymous
| ^ in my case the stock is *relatively* recession-proof, although not in all overseas markets. But if you're thinking of something that will be impacted by the coming recession (predicted in 6-9 months, but that can always change), then you need to factor that in. |
Anonymous
| The bottom will not be reached while the price of the S&P 500 has a 3 handle. |
Anonymous
| c'mon OP. If seasoned wealthy managers cannot figure this out why do you think lay people can? |
Anonymous
Please don't sell your farm and buy ONE stock? So so incredibly risky and not likely to pan out well. |
Anonymous
|
Trying to time the bottom is a fool’s errand. That being said, we can always make an educated estimate.
The average annualized S&P 500 return since 1957 has been 11.88%. The two most significant recent bottoms were in March 2009 (approximately 13.5 years ago at 677) and then again in March 2020 (approximately 2.5 years ago at 2237). The 2009 bottom propagated forward to today would have put the S&P 500 at: 677 * (1.1188^13.5) = 3081 The 2020 bottom propagated forward to today would have put the S&P 500 at: 2237 * (1.1188^2.5) = 2962 These are pretty close, as one might expect from legitimate corrections, with the average being 3021. So, my guess is that a reasonable estimate for the S&P 500 bottom today is around 3021 and, therefore, that we still have room to fall. But, the S&P 500 historically grows at a rate of about 11.88% YoY or 0.93% MoM. With each passing month, our estimate for the S&P 500 bottom needs to increase, perhaps as follows: 10/22: 3021 * 1.0093^0 = 3021 11/22: 3021 * 1.0093^1 = 3049 12/22: 3021 * 1.0093^2 = 3077 01/23: 3021 * 1.0093^3 = 3106 02/23: 3021 * 1.0093^4 = 3135 03/23: 3021 * 1.0093^5 = 3164 04/23: 3021 * 1.0093^6 = 3194 05/23: 3021 * 1.0093^7 = 3223 06/23: 3021 * 1.0093^8 = 3253 07/23: 3021 * 1.0093^9 = 3283 08/23: 3021 * 1.0093^10 = 3314 09/23: 3021 * 1.0093^11 = 3345 10/23: 3021 * 1.0093^12 = 3376 11/23: 3021 * 1.0093^13 = 3407 12/23: 3021 * 1.0093^14 = 3439 When the actual S&P 500 intersects the estimated trajectory of the above, I suspect we’ll be at or near the bottom. The sooner the correction is over, the better. |
Anonymous
| Thank you 12:51, for taking the time to explain. |
Anonymous
| Thanks, 12:51. Might be interesting to do the same analysis for the nasdaq 100. By similar calculations, it may have already bottomed given its larger YRD decline. |
Anonymous
| YTD, not YRD. |
Anonymous
| You all timing the market are going to have a lot of trouble. Expect a 15% quick upswing after we hit bottom, get some good news and money starts flowing back in. |