Grabbing the bottom of the market

[Anonymous]

I agree that any upswing is going to be sudden and mostly unpredictable. I know stocks are discounted now. So buy low.

If you could time the market, every stable genius would be a billionaire, right? Every financial advisor and expert would be retired because they don't need to work.

[Anonymous]

Incorrect. This analysis is highly correlated with current market conditions. To suggest that it isn’t is to ignore the impact of future earnings estimates on society’s perceptions of appropriately valued stock prices. You can certainly dollar cost average your way to long-term gains, but it likely won’t be until 2027 that the S&P 500 regains it’s previous peak value of 4819. Meanwhile, those that liquidated into cash when both stocks and bonds were obviously overvalued and then followed the above analytical recipe will have gained 60% more wealth than their DCA counterparts.

This is a huge assumption (and an extremely negative prediction): it likely won’t be until 2027 that the S&P 500 regains it’s previous peak value of 4819

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Incorrect. This analysis is highly correlated with current market conditions. To suggest that it isn’t is to ignore the impact of future earnings estimates on society’s perceptions of appropriately valued stock prices. You can certainly dollar cost average your way to long-term gains, but it likely won’t be until 2027 that the S&P 500 regains it’s previous peak value of 4819. Meanwhile, those that liquidated into cash when both stocks and bonds were obviously overvalued and then followed the above analytical recipe will have gained 60% more wealth than their DCA counterparts.

This is a huge assumption (and an extremely negative prediction): it likely won’t be until 2027 that the S&P 500 regains it’s previous peak value of 4819


hahaha

There are a bunch of guys on Wall Street who took linear algebra in middle school who can't beat the market, yet we are supposed to take your advice

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trying to time the bottom is a fool’s errand. That being said, we can always make an educated estimate.

The average annualized S&P 500 return since 1957 has been 11.88%. The two most significant recent bottoms were in March 2009 (approximately 13.5 years ago at 677) and then again in March 2020 (approximately 2.5 years ago at 2237). The 2009 bottom propagated forward to today would have put the S&P 500 at:

677 * (1.1188^13.5) = 3081

The 2020 bottom propagated forward to today would have put the S&P 500 at:

2237 * (1.1188^2.5) = 2962

These are pretty close, as one might expect from legitimate corrections, with the average being 3021. So, my guess is that a reasonable estimate for the S&P 500 bottom today is around 3021 and, therefore, that we still have room to fall. But, the S&P 500 historically grows at a rate of about 11.88% YoY or 0.93% MoM. With each passing month, our estimate for the S&P 500 bottom needs to increase, perhaps as follows:

10/22: 3021 * 1.0093^0 = 3021
11/22: 3021 * 1.0093^1 = 3049
12/22: 3021 * 1.0093^2 = 3077
01/23: 3021 * 1.0093^3 = 3106
02/23: 3021 * 1.0093^4 = 3135
03/23: 3021 * 1.0093^5 = 3164
04/23: 3021 * 1.0093^6 = 3194
05/23: 3021 * 1.0093^7 = 3223
06/23: 3021 * 1.0093^8 = 3253
07/23: 3021 * 1.0093^9 = 3283
08/23: 3021 * 1.0093^10 = 3314
09/23: 3021 * 1.0093^11 = 3345
10/23: 3021 * 1.0093^12 = 3376
11/23: 3021 * 1.0093^13 = 3407
12/23: 3021 * 1.0093^14 = 3439

When the actual S&P 500 intersects the estimated trajectory of the above, I suspect we’ll be at or near the bottom. The sooner the correction is over, the better.

In theory this is at least educated but has no relevance to the market now or in the future. No analysis knows when the market will bottom..that is why investing is a long game

Incorrect. This analysis is highly correlated with current market conditions. To suggest that it isn’t is to ignore the impact of future earnings estimates on society’s perceptions of appropriately valued stock prices. You can certainly dollar cost average your way to long-term gains, but it likely won’t be until 2027 that the S&P 500 regains it’s previous peak value of 4819. Meanwhile, those that liquidated into cash when both stocks and bonds were obviously overvalued and then followed the above analytical recipe will have gained 60% more wealth than their DCA counterparts.

Keep drinking your kool-aid. No "analyst" has any clue what the market will do in the next month, let alone in 2027.

If you were the ONE person in the world who knows, then what are you doing commenting on a blog.

There are thousands of analysts that spend all day trying to identify this and they are wrong the vast majority of the time:

https://fortune.com/2022/10/13/best-minds-on-wall-street-stock-market-predictions/

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/business/omicron-stock-market-forecasts.html

Keep thinking you're the guy! For 99.99% of investors, investing regularly regardless of what is happening is the best way to build weatlh

[Anonymous]

The thing about bottoms is that they are often V shaped. Once the bottom is in, the markets go up quickly. It is just as useful to be early and ride some of the way down than it is to be late and bandwagon on.

[Anonymous]

China is about to blow up and take the whole world economy down with them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:China is about to blow up and take the whole world economy down with them.

???

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:China is about to blow up and take the whole world economy down with them.

???

https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/china-gdp-delay-amplifies-economic-distress-signal-2022-10-18/

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/china-debt-crisis-lgfv-bonds-xi-jinping-communist-party-congress-2022-10?op=1

[Anonymous]

honestly..just don't read the news. You'll sleep better at night.

Are you really going to be actionable plans based upon these headlines? If people made trades based upon headlines they would be broke.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:honestly..just don't read the news. You'll sleep better at night.

Are you really going to be actionable plans based upon these headlines? If people made trades based upon headlines they would be broke.

i'm no expert but I sometimes follow the inverse of headlines. When a msm publication comments on the market it's generally time to do the opposite.

When I'm feeling adventurous I use google search trends

I'm sure some quant has tried this to varying degrees of success.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trying to time the bottom is a fool’s errand. That being said, we can always make an educated estimate.

The average annualized S&P 500 return since 1957 has been 11.88%. The two most significant recent bottoms were in March 2009 (approximately 13.5 years ago at 677) and then again in March 2020 (approximately 2.5 years ago at 2237). The 2009 bottom propagated forward to today would have put the S&P 500 at:

677 * (1.1188^13.5) = 3081

The 2020 bottom propagated forward to today would have put the S&P 500 at:

2237 * (1.1188^2.5) = 2962

These are pretty close, as one might expect from legitimate corrections, with the average being 3021. So, my guess is that a reasonable estimate for the S&P 500 bottom today is around 3021 and, therefore, that we still have room to fall. But, the S&P 500 historically grows at a rate of about 11.88% YoY or 0.93% MoM. With each passing month, our estimate for the S&P 500 bottom needs to increase, perhaps as follows:

10/22: 3021 * 1.0093^0 = 3021
11/22: 3021 * 1.0093^1 = 3049
12/22: 3021 * 1.0093^2 = 3077
01/23: 3021 * 1.0093^3 = 3106
02/23: 3021 * 1.0093^4 = 3135
03/23: 3021 * 1.0093^5 = 3164
04/23: 3021 * 1.0093^6 = 3194
05/23: 3021 * 1.0093^7 = 3223
06/23: 3021 * 1.0093^8 = 3253
07/23: 3021 * 1.0093^9 = 3283
08/23: 3021 * 1.0093^10 = 3314
09/23: 3021 * 1.0093^11 = 3345
10/23: 3021 * 1.0093^12 = 3376
11/23: 3021 * 1.0093^13 = 3407
12/23: 3021 * 1.0093^14 = 3439

When the actual S&P 500 intersects the estimated trajectory of the above, I suspect we’ll be at or near the bottom. The sooner the correction is over, the better.

In theory this is at least educated but has no relevance to the market now or in the future. No analysis knows when the market will bottom..that is why investing is a long game

Incorrect. This analysis is highly correlated with current market conditions. To suggest that it isn’t is to ignore the impact of future earnings estimates on society’s perceptions of appropriately valued stock prices. You can certainly dollar cost average your way to long-term gains, but it likely won’t be until 2027 that the S&P 500 regains it’s previous peak value of 4819. Meanwhile, those that liquidated into cash when both stocks and bonds were obviously overvalued and then followed the above analytical recipe will have gained 60% more wealth than their DCA counterparts.

Keep drinking your kool-aid. No "analyst" has any clue what the market will do in the next month, let alone in 2027.

If you were the ONE person in the world who knows, then what are you doing commenting on a blog.

There are thousands of analysts that spend all day trying to identify this and they are wrong the vast majority of the time:

https://fortune.com/2022/10/13/best-minds-on-wall-street-stock-market-predictions/

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/business/omicron-stock-market-forecasts.html

Keep thinking you're the guy! For 99.99% of investors, investing regularly regardless of what is happening is the best way to build weatlh

I know your stupidity is intimidated by the math. Keep following the masses while my superior intellect rakes in the profits.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:honestly..just don't read the news. You'll sleep better at night.

Are you really going to be actionable plans based upon these headlines? If people made trades based upon headlines they would be broke.

i'm no expert but I sometimes follow the inverse of headlines. When a msm publication comments on the market it's generally time to do the opposite.

When I'm feeling adventurous I use google search trends

I'm sure some quant has tried this to varying degrees of success.

But what about when your “MSM” tip itself becomes mainstream. Quiet meta…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-13/it-s-been-40-years-since-our-cover-story-declared-the-death-of-equities

Seriously you know that is a cliche right?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trying to time the bottom is a fool’s errand. That being said, we can always make an educated estimate.

The average annualized S&P 500 return since 1957 has been 11.88%. The two most significant recent bottoms were in March 2009 (approximately 13.5 years ago at 677) and then again in March 2020 (approximately 2.5 years ago at 2237). The 2009 bottom propagated forward to today would have put the S&P 500 at:

677 * (1.1188^13.5) = 3081

The 2020 bottom propagated forward to today would have put the S&P 500 at:

2237 * (1.1188^2.5) = 2962

These are pretty close, as one might expect from legitimate corrections, with the average being 3021. So, my guess is that a reasonable estimate for the S&P 500 bottom today is around 3021 and, therefore, that we still have room to fall. But, the S&P 500 historically grows at a rate of about 11.88% YoY or 0.93% MoM. With each passing month, our estimate for the S&P 500 bottom needs to increase, perhaps as follows:

10/22: 3021 * 1.0093^0 = 3021
11/22: 3021 * 1.0093^1 = 3049
12/22: 3021 * 1.0093^2 = 3077
01/23: 3021 * 1.0093^3 = 3106
02/23: 3021 * 1.0093^4 = 3135
03/23: 3021 * 1.0093^5 = 3164
04/23: 3021 * 1.0093^6 = 3194
05/23: 3021 * 1.0093^7 = 3223
06/23: 3021 * 1.0093^8 = 3253
07/23: 3021 * 1.0093^9 = 3283
08/23: 3021 * 1.0093^10 = 3314
09/23: 3021 * 1.0093^11 = 3345
10/23: 3021 * 1.0093^12 = 3376
11/23: 3021 * 1.0093^13 = 3407
12/23: 3021 * 1.0093^14 = 3439

When the actual S&P 500 intersects the estimated trajectory of the above, I suspect we’ll be at or near the bottom. The sooner the correction is over, the better.

In theory this is at least educated but has no relevance to the market now or in the future. No analysis knows when the market will bottom..that is why investing is a long game

That is why our self proclaimed brainiac will lose his ass. Market timers sometimes get lucky, which emboldens them to make more dumb decisions. Then their luck runs out haha

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I agree that any upswing is going to be sudden and mostly unpredictable. I know stocks are discounted now. So buy low.

If you could time the market, every stable genius would be a billionaire, right? Every financial advisor and expert would be retired because they don't need to work.

Just to be clear, 99.9999% of people that go into economics, business, and finance are extremely ill-equipped mathematically. You need to be an ingenious and creative mathematician, with a deep and profound mastery of random processes and nonlinear analysis to build credible market predictions. These are the only people smart enough to truly understand the market and they’re few and far between. I know, I happen to be one of them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I agree that any upswing is going to be sudden and mostly unpredictable. I know stocks are discounted now. So buy low.

If you could time the market, every stable genius would be a billionaire, right? Every financial advisor and expert would be retired because they don't need to work.

Just to be clear, 99.9999% of people that go into economics, business, and finance are extremely ill-equipped mathematically. You need to be an ingenious and creative mathematician, with a deep and profound mastery of random processes and nonlinear analysis to build credible market predictions. These are the only people smart enough to truly understand the market and they’re few and far between. I know, I happen to be one of them.

Lol, you sound like the Nobel laureates at LTCM lost billions of dollars and almost blew up the entire US economy that required Congressional intervention to prevent.