Ukraine war - which side is winning?

[Anonymous]

Just to add:

- Ukraine now plausibly claims a standing army of 700,000 in-country.

Russia’s military is spread thin, over the entire RF, Syria, Kazakstan, Armenia, all borders with NATO, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Just to add:

- Ukraine now plausibly claims a standing army of 700,000 in-country.

Russia’s military is spread thin, over the entire RF, Syria, Kazakstan, Armenia, all borders with NATO, etc.

Meanwhile they have Turkey making moves on Syria, they are drawing down every possible reserve all the way out to Irkutsk. This is costing them everything they have.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just to add:

- Ukraine now plausibly claims a standing army of 700,000 in-country.

Russia’s military is spread thin, over the entire RF, Syria, Kazakstan, Armenia, all borders with NATO, etc.

Meanwhile they have Turkey making moves on Syria, they are drawing down every possible reserve all the way out to Irkutsk. This is costing them everything they have.

Good? Syria is a way to apply pressure to Russia. The US should be stepping up strikes against Assad too

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's hard to understand how the war is going for Ukraine. Different news outlets seem to report inconsistent reports. I thought Ukraine was pushing back then yesterday there was a report saying now Russia has control of 1/5 of Ukraine. For those of you following the war, what is your take?

The only thing you can rely on in reporting on the war is that the fog of it has been exceptionally thick on all three sides (Ukraine, Russia, West). The losses and incompetence of the Russian army are a strong talking point in the narrative yet no one is really reporting or acknowledging the heavy losses and dings to morale Ukraine is facing. There is virtually no independent, non-government-sponsored reporting on the war. It's all regurgitated talking points.

In other news, Ukraine has fired their human rights commissioner Ludmila Denisova for not doing her job and spreading unverified, un-fact-checked reports of sexual violence toward women and children in the war. It says a lot when this decision comes from a country that has the most to gained from it. In yet other news, a much-published photo of a mother writing on the back of her child (in case they are separated in the fighting!) turned out to be made in the south of France, where mother and daughter currently are. (I have to wonder why no one asked in the beginning - if this is designed to keep the child from getting lost in the war, why would she be writing it in Latin rather than Cyrillic?) In yet other news, Ukraine's chief prosecutor has charged a man with the crimes committed in Bucha and advised him of that fact via email. The man turned out to be a native of Belarus who was never in the armed forces and had no role in the war whatsoever.

All of this to caution people that information during the war is a weapon. There is no reporting to report any longer. It's all done in the service of a larger narrative.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Russia cannot sustain an occupation of vast swaths of Ukraine in the short or long term. Putin’s armies are brittle and depleted. It’s suffered staggering losses in terms of troops (mostly conscripts) and military equipment. Over 31,000 KIA. Over a thousand tanks destroyed. Hundreds of aircraft. The Russians don’t have air superiority. Their Black Sea fleet continues to suffer losses. And there is now a more sustained flow of weapon systems to Ukraine (no thanks to the Germans). Much of the industrial base of Ukraine is destroyed as is the port city of Mariupol, which no longer has strategic value because the Russians can’t rebuild it.

The wat isn’t really winnable for either side. The question becomes how can some degree of a resolution be obtained given the scope of war crimes committed by the Putin regime and its reembrace of the gulag archipelago.

Both sides would have been better off if they continued where they left off in Istanbul. I was so hopeful then.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's hard to understand how the war is going for Ukraine. Different news outlets seem to report inconsistent reports. I thought Ukraine was pushing back then yesterday there was a report saying now Russia has control of 1/5 of Ukraine. For those of you following the war, what is your take?

The only thing you can rely on in reporting on the war is that the fog of it has been exceptionally thick on all three sides (Ukraine, Russia, West). The losses and incompetence of the Russian army are a strong talking point in the narrative yet no one is really reporting or acknowledging the heavy losses and dings to morale Ukraine is facing. There is virtually no independent, non-government-sponsored reporting on the war. It's all regurgitated talking points.

In other news, Ukraine has fired their human rights commissioner Ludmila Denisova for not doing her job and spreading unverified, un-fact-checked reports of sexual violence toward women and children in the war. It says a lot when this decision comes from a country that has the most to gained from it. In yet other news, a much-published photo of a mother writing on the back of her child (in case they are separated in the fighting!) turned out to be made in the south of France, where mother and daughter currently are. (I have to wonder why no one asked in the beginning - if this is designed to keep the child from getting lost in the war, why would she be writing it in Latin rather than Cyrillic?) In yet other news, Ukraine's chief prosecutor has charged a man with the crimes committed in Bucha and advised him of that fact via email. The man turned out to be a native of Belarus who was never in the armed forces and had no role in the war whatsoever.

All of this to caution people that information during the war is a weapon. There is no reporting to report any longer. It's all done in the service of a larger narrative.

Frankly, I’m fine with narratives that hurt Russia.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's hard to understand how the war is going for Ukraine. Different news outlets seem to report inconsistent reports. I thought Ukraine was pushing back then yesterday there was a report saying now Russia has control of 1/5 of Ukraine. For those of you following the war, what is your take?

The only thing you can rely on in reporting on the war is that the fog of it has been exceptionally thick on all three sides (Ukraine, Russia, West). The losses and incompetence of the Russian army are a strong talking point in the narrative yet no one is really reporting or acknowledging the heavy losses and dings to morale Ukraine is facing. There is virtually no independent, non-government-sponsored reporting on the war. It's all regurgitated talking points.

In other news, Ukraine has fired their human rights commissioner Ludmila Denisova for not doing her job and spreading unverified, un-fact-checked reports of sexual violence toward women and children in the war. It says a lot when this decision comes from a country that has the most to gained from it. In yet other news, a much-published photo of a mother writing on the back of her child (in case they are separated in the fighting!) turned out to be made in the south of France, where mother and daughter currently are. (I have to wonder why no one asked in the beginning - if this is designed to keep the child from getting lost in the war, why would she be writing it in Latin rather than Cyrillic?) In yet other news, Ukraine's chief prosecutor has charged a man with the crimes committed in Bucha and advised him of that fact via email. The man turned out to be a native of Belarus who was never in the armed forces and had no role in the war whatsoever.

All of this to caution people that information during the war is a weapon. There is no reporting to report any longer. It's all done in the service of a larger narrative.

Frankly, I’m fine with narratives that hurt Russia.

You understand though that this means you're being told lies?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's hard to understand how the war is going for Ukraine. Different news outlets seem to report inconsistent reports. I thought Ukraine was pushing back then yesterday there was a report saying now Russia has control of 1/5 of Ukraine. For those of you following the war, what is your take?

The only thing you can rely on in reporting on the war is that the fog of it has been exceptionally thick on all three sides (Ukraine, Russia, West). The losses and incompetence of the Russian army are a strong talking point in the narrative yet no one is really reporting or acknowledging the heavy losses and dings to morale Ukraine is facing. There is virtually no independent, non-government-sponsored reporting on the war. It's all regurgitated talking points.

In other news, Ukraine has fired their human rights commissioner Ludmila Denisova for not doing her job and spreading unverified, un-fact-checked reports of sexual violence toward women and children in the war. It says a lot when this decision comes from a country that has the most to gained from it. In yet other news, a much-published photo of a mother writing on the back of her child (in case they are separated in the fighting!) turned out to be made in the south of France, where mother and daughter currently are. (I have to wonder why no one asked in the beginning - if this is designed to keep the child from getting lost in the war, why would she be writing it in Latin rather than Cyrillic?) In yet other news, Ukraine's chief prosecutor has charged a man with the crimes committed in Bucha and advised him of that fact via email. The man turned out to be a native of Belarus who was never in the armed forces and had no role in the war whatsoever.

All of this to caution people that information during the war is a weapon. There is no reporting to report any longer. It's all done in the service of a larger narrative.

Frankly, I’m fine with narratives that hurt Russia.

You understand though that this means you're being told lies?

Don’t really care.

[Anonymous]

Ukraine is losing as Russia has 20% of the country

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6474758

[Anonymous]

This is turning into grindingly awful trench warfare.

I fervently hope NATO sends Ukraine every single weapon and military support they need to preserve Ukraine territory.

I am so sad that fighter jets and other items Ukraine needed at the start of the war, when they asked for it, were not allowed. There is nothing Putin could have done if they had been sent. Putin was not then in a position to escalate against NATO, or accidentally-on-purpose sabotage a nuclear power plant in Ukraine. But Biden and a few European leaders believed his threats, and as a result thousands of Ukrainians died in horrific circumstances; Russia was able to establish a land corridor to Crimea; and it will take SO MUCH MORE MONEY AND LIVES TO FLUSH THEM OUT.

Sigh.

[Anonymous]

I care.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
This is turning into grindingly awful trench warfare.

I fervently hope NATO sends Ukraine every single weapon and military support they need to preserve Ukraine territory.

I am so sad that fighter jets and other items Ukraine needed at the start of the war, when they asked for it, were not allowed. There is nothing Putin could have done if they had been sent. Putin was not then in a position to escalate against NATO, or accidentally-on-purpose sabotage a nuclear power plant in Ukraine. But Biden and a few European leaders believed his threats, and as a result thousands of Ukrainians died in horrific circumstances; Russia was able to establish a land corridor to Crimea; and it will take SO MUCH MORE MONEY AND LIVES TO FLUSH THEM OUT.

Sigh.

Was anyone in the world 100% confident that madman Putin would not have used a nuclear weapon against the West if cornered?

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe the answer is no.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Just to add:

- Ukraine now plausibly claims a standing army of 700,000 in-country.

Russia’s military is spread thin, over the entire RF, Syria, Kazakstan, Armenia, all borders with NATO, etc.

And it can equally plausibly be claimed that up to 70,000 of those 700,000 died in just the last 72 hours.

Ukrainian forces are being slaughtered from 60 miles away by rocket barrages that spill cluster munitions over 20 acre parcels at a time. Russia has finally figured out how to fight a war (after 3 months of getting it’s ass handed to it) and has now abandoned the use of armor at the leading edge of battle and is now instead sanitizing the front one barrage at a time.

Launch rockets at enemy positions, kill or wound everything within every square meter (look up how cluster munitions work if you doubt this) then move forces in. Kill the wounded, rinse, repeat.

This is how Russia will be fighting this war from here on, and they’ll win by end of summer. Bookmark this post.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just to add:

- Ukraine now plausibly claims a standing army of 700,000 in-country.

Russia’s military is spread thin, over the entire RF, Syria, Kazakstan, Armenia, all borders with NATO, etc.

And it can equally plausibly be claimed that up to 70,000 of those 700,000 died in just the last 72 hours.

Ukrainian forces are being slaughtered from 60 miles away by rocket barrages that spill cluster munitions over 20 acre parcels at a time. Russia has finally figured out how to fight a war (after 3 months of getting it’s ass handed to it) and has now abandoned the use of armor at the leading edge of battle and is now instead sanitizing the front one barrage at a time.

Launch rockets at enemy positions, kill or wound everything within every square meter (look up how cluster munitions work if you doubt this) then move forces in. Kill the wounded, rinse, repeat.

This is how Russia will be fighting this war from here on, and they’ll win by end of summer. Bookmark this post.

You aren’t accounting for Ukraine’s ability to change strategy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just to add:

- Ukraine now plausibly claims a standing army of 700,000 in-country.

Russia’s military is spread thin, over the entire RF, Syria, Kazakstan, Armenia, all borders with NATO, etc.

And it can equally plausibly be claimed that up to 70,000 of those 700,000 died in just the last 72 hours.

Ukrainian forces are being slaughtered from 60 miles away by rocket barrages that spill cluster munitions over 20 acre parcels at a time. Russia has finally figured out how to fight a war (after 3 months of getting it’s ass handed to it) and has now abandoned the use of armor at the leading edge of battle and is now instead sanitizing the front one barrage at a time.

Launch rockets at enemy positions, kill or wound everything within every square meter (look up how cluster munitions work if you doubt this) then move forces in. Kill the wounded, rinse, repeat.


This is how Russia will be fighting this war from here on, and they’ll win by end of summer. Bookmark this post.

What you describe is not happening and you really have no understanding of how this war is fought. The Ukrainians are in dug positions. You need a direct hit with very large munitions to destroy just one position. Cluster munitions does nothing to a dug in position. Massed heavy artillery is ineffective against these positions because the Ukrainians defense are iin-depth. It is the Russians who are suffering huge loses.

The Russians are unable to maintain the supplies they need for this operation, they have not abandon armor because the Ukrainians would easily destroy non armored forces, the Russians have to attack the Ukrainians who are in defense, etc. The Russians losses are so great their units are not combat effective. Estimates of Russian casualties are around 100k with 3 times that wounded. Russia is preparing to draft more men. It’s a quagmire with no end.