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CURRENT RUMOR RE: FSU LEAVING ACC:
The current rumor is that FSU has negotiated an exit fee of $300 million to be paid in ten annual installments of $30 million per year. The numbers work as FSU would be stuck for the next 12 or 13 years (through 2036) earning about $40 to $60 million less per year than if it joined the Big Ten. Clemson also wants out of the ACC now. These are rumors being floated by long-time college football insiders/analysts. Same folks are stating that both FSU & Clemson are headed to the Big Ten Conference. I find this difficult to believe as it seems more like a ploy to get ESPN & Disney to give more money to FSU & Clemson to keep the ACC intact. Nevertheless, that's the rumor. Other talk is that U Utah & ASU want to remain in the Pac-12. Supposedly U Utah does not want to be in the same conference with arch-rival BYU. Seems silly to me, but that is the rumor. Not clear about ASU's alleged reasons. Any new Pac-12 contract will pay about $20 million per year per team if there are no other departures from the Pac-12. This is a huge pay cut. The contract would contain escalator clauses for TV ratings and for hitting certain subscription target goals. |
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The desperation of these schools is embarrassing. It’s like the ACC panic GOR when UMD monetized it’s location. Flailing around with false bravado backed up by squat. They are so shocked at not being powerful and being subjugated. |
| The ACC member schools foolishly signed away their media rights for too little money over too many years. This action was driven by fear & panic--not by reason. |
The 300 million is not near the amount the ACC will want. The current deal is $150 million plus all the tv revenue from home games in the new conference for 13 years. The Big Ten for example is at 100 million per school in 2 years and increasing rapidly so home games only will be 50 million and maybe up to 100 million by 2036 so let’s say 75 million per year average plus the 150 million exit fee. That would be 1.215 BILLION to the ACC. Why would they accept less than 1/3 of that? These rumors are total nonsense. |
We will know within the next 14 days--by August 15, 2023. |
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What Is Really Happening Is a Changing Of The Guard
Witness The Genius of the Big Ten Conference. Pac-12 & ACC fire sale ! The Big Ten Conference can replace both ESPN/Disney & the NCAA if it wants to do so. Pac-12 schools will (and should) join the Big Ten (IF invited) at a discounted payout with escalator clauses for outstanding results. Pac-12 schools are looking at a payout of about $20 million per school plus possible bonus after being paid more than $30 million per school. The Big Ten can hand pick 2 or 4 or 6 Pac-12 schools for $33 million plus bonus based on results. This is a win-win for every Big Ten member school past, present, & future. The Big Ten has a huge advantage over the SEC in that the Big Ten Conference can easily control football TV games from coast-to-coast in multiple time zones. The SEC doesn't need--and should not want--this ability as the football crazed South amounts to enough riches. |
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The current Big Ten Conference football media rights agreement includes Fox, CBS, & NBC--but NOT ESPN/Disney.
(I'll bet some are thinking about shorting Disney stock, but that may be a bit premature as Disney is composed of a lot more than just ESPN.) |
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At these prices, I think that the Big Ten needs to consider adding ASU (Arizona State University). Not on equal footing with the current 16 Big Ten member schools, but at a significant payout over every other option that ASU has now or in the near future.
The Big Ten Conference should not hesitate about offering U Washington & U Oregon. If that is the end of Big Ten expansion, then all Big Ten member schools are winners. But, a true coast-to-coast conference along with the possible purchase of ESPN from Disney by the Big Ten Conference is a victory that few, if any, saw coming. |
| And thank God for the SEC and the Big 12 Conference as nobody wants to trigger an antitrust investigation. |
The Big Ten will not take members that need to be treated 2nd class. It is a formula that destroys camaraderie which is the proud hallmark of the Big Ten where the schools actually like each other and have a lot in common. The Big Ten is class. |
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The current Pac-12 commisioner tried to bluff the Pac-12 member schools. A word of advice to the Pac-12 commisioner who lives in Las Vegas:
You cannot bluff when everybody can see the cards that you are holding. https://usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-walken/2023/08/01/pac-12-schools-nervous-future-no-great-media-deal/70508563007/ |
I think that you need to research the most recent Big Ten deals. |
While the sentiment is appreciated, no way that certain schools are getting a Big Ten invitation on an equal footing with the current 16 member schools beyond Notre Dame, Texas, or U Florida. Just ask Rutgers or U Maryland. |
U-Arizona is the better academic fit for the B1G. Just sayin' |
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Could Notre Dame form its own conference ?
Not necessary as the Big Ten Conference is a true coast-to-coast conference, but yes Notre Dame might be able to do so if it wants more control than membership in an existing conference. |