Arlington Missing Middle Housing Q&A

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Haven’t read all the pages on this, but just scanned a Boston fed report on increased density - even they say increased density makes neighborhoods less valuable/perceived quality declines for homeowners.

https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/2022/10/boston-fed-research-relaxing-density-restrictions-best-way-to-increase-multifamily-housing.aspx

“House prices would likely fall with rents if greater housing density is allowed
The authors find that zoning reform that relaxes density restrictions doesn’t just reduce rents. It also causes house prices to fall—including single-family house prices. Their analysis shows that allowing one more housing unit per acre in a Greater Boston neighborhood increases the number of units in that neighborhood by an average of 0.4. This increase results in the neighborhood’s rents dropping more than 5% and house prices falling more than 7% on average (see graphic). House prices drop because the housing supply increases. Or they fall because when a neighborhood becomes denser, its perceived quality declines.“

Obviously, Boston is bigger than Arlington so our supply may not make a difference to prices but the perceived quality sure will decline!

that's great news! that way more people of all backgrounds can afford to live in Arlington. what's the problem with that?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Haven’t read all the pages on this, but just scanned a Boston fed report on increased density - even they say increased density makes neighborhoods less valuable/perceived quality declines for homeowners.

https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/2022/10/boston-fed-research-relaxing-density-restrictions-best-way-to-increase-multifamily-housing.aspx

“House prices would likely fall with rents if greater housing density is allowed
The authors find that zoning reform that relaxes density restrictions doesn’t just reduce rents. It also causes house prices to fall—including single-family house prices. Their analysis shows that allowing one more housing unit per acre in a Greater Boston neighborhood increases the number of units in that neighborhood by an average of 0.4. This increase results in the neighborhood’s rents dropping more than 5% and house prices falling more than 7% on average (see graphic). House prices drop because the housing supply increases. Or they fall because when a neighborhood becomes denser, its perceived quality declines.“

Obviously, Boston is bigger than Arlington so our supply may not make a difference to prices but the perceived quality sure will decline!

that's great news! that way more people of all backgrounds can afford to live in Arlington. what's the problem with that?

It's actually a catch 22. Once housing prices drop in Arlington, the "missing middle" will no longer be clamoring to live there. They only want to buy there now because they perceive that it's the ticket to wealth. But desirability does change over time. For example, PG County was viewed as being more desirable in the 1970s than it is today. (My parents lived in Greenbelt back then and said it was on par with desirable parts of Moco.) People shouldn't take for granted that just because Arlington is close in, it will always be desirable.

[Anonymous]

Isn't missing middle already approved? I'm confused.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Haven’t read all the pages on this, but just scanned a Boston fed report on increased density - even they say increased density makes neighborhoods less valuable/perceived quality declines for homeowners.

https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/2022/10/boston-fed-research-relaxing-density-restrictions-best-way-to-increase-multifamily-housing.aspx

“House prices would likely fall with rents if greater housing density is allowed
The authors find that zoning reform that relaxes density restrictions doesn’t just reduce rents. It also causes house prices to fall—including single-family house prices. Their analysis shows that allowing one more housing unit per acre in a Greater Boston neighborhood increases the number of units in that neighborhood by an average of 0.4. This increase results in the neighborhood’s rents dropping more than 5% and house prices falling more than 7% on average (see graphic). House prices drop because the housing supply increases. Or they fall because when a neighborhood becomes denser, its perceived quality declines.“

Obviously, Boston is bigger than Arlington so our supply may not make a difference to prices but the perceived quality sure will decline!

that's great news! that way more people of all backgrounds can afford to live in Arlington. what's the problem with that?

It's actually a catch 22. Once housing prices drop in Arlington, the "missing middle" will no longer be clamoring to live there. They only want to buy there now because they perceive that it's the ticket to wealth. But desirability does change over time. For example, PG County was viewed as being more desirable in the 1970s than it is today. (My parents lived in Greenbelt back then and said it was on par with desirable parts of Moco.) People shouldn't take for granted that just because Arlington is close in, it will always be desirable.

PG was decimated by busing. Unless Arlington's schools suddenly plummet in quality, I don't think you can compare it to what happened in PG 40 years ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Haven’t read all the pages on this, but just scanned a Boston fed report on increased density - even they say increased density makes neighborhoods less valuable/perceived quality declines for homeowners.

https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/2022/10/boston-fed-research-relaxing-density-restrictions-best-way-to-increase-multifamily-housing.aspx

“House prices would likely fall with rents if greater housing density is allowed
The authors find that zoning reform that relaxes density restrictions doesn’t just reduce rents. It also causes house prices to fall—including single-family house prices. Their analysis shows that allowing one more housing unit per acre in a Greater Boston neighborhood increases the number of units in that neighborhood by an average of 0.4. This increase results in the neighborhood’s rents dropping more than 5% and house prices falling more than 7% on average (see graphic). House prices drop because the housing supply increases. Or they fall because when a neighborhood becomes denser, its perceived quality declines.“

Obviously, Boston is bigger than Arlington so our supply may not make a difference to prices but the perceived quality sure will decline!

that's great news! that way more people of all backgrounds can afford to live in Arlington. what's the problem with that?

In theory it sounds good. But I don't think prices will decrease in any meaningful way. Affordable housing in desirable areas doesn't just doesn't seem to pan out. If you can't afford to live in an area, go live somewhere else. I would love to live in San Diego, but here I am in DC

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Haven’t read all the pages on this, but just scanned a Boston fed report on increased density - even they say increased density makes neighborhoods less valuable/perceived quality declines for homeowners.

https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/2022/10/boston-fed-research-relaxing-density-restrictions-best-way-to-increase-multifamily-housing.aspx

“House prices would likely fall with rents if greater housing density is allowed
The authors find that zoning reform that relaxes density restrictions doesn’t just reduce rents. It also causes house prices to fall—including single-family house prices. Their analysis shows that allowing one more housing unit per acre in a Greater Boston neighborhood increases the number of units in that neighborhood by an average of 0.4. This increase results in the neighborhood’s rents dropping more than 5% and house prices falling more than 7% on average (see graphic). House prices drop because the housing supply increases. Or they fall because when a neighborhood becomes denser, its perceived quality declines.“

Obviously, Boston is bigger than Arlington so our supply may not make a difference to prices but the perceived quality sure will decline!

that's great news! that way more people of all backgrounds can afford to live in Arlington. what's the problem with that?

In theory it sounds good. But I don't think prices will decrease in any meaningful way. Affordable housing in desirable areas doesn't just doesn't seem to pan out. If you can't afford to live in an area, go live somewhere else. I would love to live in San Diego, but here I am in DC

+1 to this.
Developers say this will bring affordable housing to make it more palatable, and the BOS will probably fall for it but there's no way the housing created from this will be affordable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I sincerely hope hope the MM passes.

It’s exactly what SFH’s in N Arl deserve for creating a Democrat stranglehold on everything. This is what they voted for, this is what they created, and it’s amazingly awesome to watch all the phony liberals freak out over MM 😂😂

MM++ -- I am a SFH owner in N Arlington and support MM. Requiring SFH zoning has been shown to be historically racist. Let's fix that.

Too bad MMH isn’t fixing the racial disparity with home ownership in Arlington. That is just a strawman MMH proponents like to use. Again, this is simply about providing more million dollar homes.

Sadly, MMH will force out more POC who are renting in Halls Hill and Green Valley, two black communities. The others with lower incomes who live in market rate housing and CAFs will continue to be ghettoized by Arlington County in South Arlington and around Arlington BLvd.

The desirable poors — older people, disabled, and white — will be allowed into North Arlington’s CAFs and set asides

Meanwhile, Plan Langston BLvd woukd have provided 1,600 affordable units and 4,600 market rate units off Langston BLvd. Scared of that possibility in an election year, the ACB pushed aside PLB for MMH that will benefit people who can well affirm to live in Arlington, just not in the type of housing to which they feel entitled. MMH will do nothing to enhance racial diversity or affordability in Arlington.


That means if any builder will bother to build the housing.

Aren’t most of the original homeowners in Hall’s Hill and Green Valley POC? Why aren’t they allowed to build equity or cash out like all the original white homeowners elsewhere in Arlington?

Considering home sites were sold in the early 20h Century in both Halls Hills and Nauck (now Green Valley), I suspect there are no original homeowners in those two communities. Even if there were, I referred to renters in the two communities, not homeowners. Most of the rental properties are owned by old white families that bought properties after World War II when African Americans were able to move more readily to outlying areas that were more amenable to them than heavily segregated Arlington

Of course, the African American homeowners throughout Arlington can sell their properties and realized the economic gain they deserve. It is more likely that anything new built on the properties will be sold to whites who value Arlington more than African Americans. This will diminish the diversity of Arlington even more, except for the ghettoized parts of South Arlington that are more likely to be Hispanic or refugees from the Middle East, Africa, and Central America.

Green valley is already upzoned. So is a portion of Halls Hill. Feel free to move on to the next red herring.

We live in Douglas Park which is just across Walter Reed Dr. from Nauck/Green Valley. That neighborhood was no up-zoned, because up-zoning is only for single family homes, not the R8-18 and R-14 zoning that is in parts of the neighborhood. Because of the existing multi-family housing, ACB says that the neighborhood lots that are zoned R-5 and R-6 are excluded from the zoning. Our civic association has been involved in with their civic association for several years about missing middle housing. Halls Hill/Highview Park has some of the same R-8-18 and R-14 zoning, but its R-6 and R-5 lots are not exempt from missing middle housing. We have seen a tremendous change in Nauck/Green Valley in he four years we have lived nearby, and I am guessing the same thing will happen with Halls Hill/Highview Park. From what I have seen, it is not a red herring to claim that neighborhoods will become more racially diverse. Most of the older black and hispanic people in our neighborhood have sold to flippers if their houses are in bad shape or to young white couples

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Haven’t read all the pages on this, but just scanned a Boston fed report on increased density - even they say increased density makes neighborhoods less valuable/perceived quality declines for homeowners.

https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/2022/10/boston-fed-research-relaxing-density-restrictions-best-way-to-increase-multifamily-housing.aspx

“House prices would likely fall with rents if greater housing density is allowed
The authors find that zoning reform that relaxes density restrictions doesn’t just reduce rents. It also causes house prices to fall—including single-family house prices. Their analysis shows that allowing one more housing unit per acre in a Greater Boston neighborhood increases the number of units in that neighborhood by an average of 0.4. This increase results in the neighborhood’s rents dropping more than 5% and house prices falling more than 7% on average (see graphic). House prices drop because the housing supply increases. Or they fall because when a neighborhood becomes denser, its perceived quality declines.“

Obviously, Boston is bigger than Arlington so our supply may not make a difference to prices but the perceived quality sure will decline!

that's great news! that way more people of all backgrounds can afford to live in Arlington. what's the problem with that?

Because what you’re saying is that you wish financial ill on current homeowners. Home values tanking has a real and immediate impact on those homeowners.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Haven’t read all the pages on this, but just scanned a Boston fed report on increased density - even they say increased density makes neighborhoods less valuable/perceived quality declines for homeowners.

https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/2022/10/boston-fed-research-relaxing-density-restrictions-best-way-to-increase-multifamily-housing.aspx

“House prices would likely fall with rents if greater housing density is allowed
The authors find that zoning reform that relaxes density restrictions doesn’t just reduce rents. It also causes house prices to fall—including single-family house prices. Their analysis shows that allowing one more housing unit per acre in a Greater Boston neighborhood increases the number of units in that neighborhood by an average of 0.4. This increase results in the neighborhood’s rents dropping more than 5% and house prices falling more than 7% on average (see graphic). House prices drop because the housing supply increases. Or they fall because when a neighborhood becomes denser, its perceived quality declines.“

Obviously, Boston is bigger than Arlington so our supply may not make a difference to prices but the perceived quality sure will decline!

that's great news! that way more people of all backgrounds can afford to live in Arlington. what's the problem with that?

In theory it sounds good. But I don't think prices will decrease in any meaningful way. Affordable housing in desirable areas doesn't just doesn't seem to pan out. If you can't afford to live in an area, go live somewhere else. I would love to live in San Diego, but here I am in DC

+1 to this.
Developers say this will bring affordable housing to make it more palatable, and the BOS will probably fall for it but there's no way the housing created from this will be affordable.

I don't know which developers are saying this, but the builders I work with think MMH will help them in several ways. First, they can build multiple units on one lot and the combined price of the units will be higher than the price of one house, even given the higher construction costs. Second, ArlCo will have to relax standards on set backs, lot coverage, and storm water management to get developers to build MMH. Builders can then argue that ArlCo has to do the same for single houses.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Haven’t read all the pages on this, but just scanned a Boston fed report on increased density - even they say increased density makes neighborhoods less valuable/perceived quality declines for homeowners.

https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/2022/10/boston-fed-research-relaxing-density-restrictions-best-way-to-increase-multifamily-housing.aspx

“House prices would likely fall with rents if greater housing density is allowed
The authors find that zoning reform that relaxes density restrictions doesn’t just reduce rents. It also causes house prices to fall—including single-family house prices. Their analysis shows that allowing one more housing unit per acre in a Greater Boston neighborhood increases the number of units in that neighborhood by an average of 0.4. This increase results in the neighborhood’s rents dropping more than 5% and house prices falling more than 7% on average (see graphic). House prices drop because the housing supply increases. Or they fall because when a neighborhood becomes denser, its perceived quality declines.“

Obviously, Boston is bigger than Arlington so our supply may not make a difference to prices but the perceived quality sure will decline!

that's great news! that way more people of all backgrounds can afford to live in Arlington. what's the problem with that?

It's actually a catch 22. Once housing prices drop in Arlington, the "missing middle" will no longer be clamoring to live there. They only want to buy there now because they perceive that it's the ticket to wealth. But desirability does change over time. For example, PG County was viewed as being more desirable in the 1970s than it is today. (My parents lived in Greenbelt back then and said it was on par with desirable parts of Moco.) People shouldn't take for granted that just because Arlington is close in, it will always be desirable.

Same here. I grew up in Sleepy Hollow in Falls Church, and the schools were very good and the neighborhoods were middle to upper middle class. My parents sold their house on 3/4 of an acre for less than what we paid for an entry level house in Arlington. When we realized that Yorktown high school did not have the classes we wanted our out kids, we moved to McLean. Now my old neighbors are putting their elementary school kids into catholic and private schools. Arlington is becoming more like Alexandria with a divide between the rich and the poor. Sorry to say, but the missing middle people will be on the side of the rich, not the poor, and will only accelerate the decline of Arlington.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Haven’t read all the pages on this, but just scanned a Boston fed report on increased density - even they say increased density makes neighborhoods less valuable/perceived quality declines for homeowners.

https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/2022/10/boston-fed-research-relaxing-density-restrictions-best-way-to-increase-multifamily-housing.aspx

“House prices would likely fall with rents if greater housing density is allowed
The authors find that zoning reform that relaxes density restrictions doesn’t just reduce rents. It also causes house prices to fall—including single-family house prices. Their analysis shows that allowing one more housing unit per acre in a Greater Boston neighborhood increases the number of units in that neighborhood by an average of 0.4. This increase results in the neighborhood’s rents dropping more than 5% and house prices falling more than 7% on average (see graphic). House prices drop because the housing supply increases. Or they fall because when a neighborhood becomes denser, its perceived quality declines.“

Obviously, Boston is bigger than Arlington so our supply may not make a difference to prices but the perceived quality sure will decline!

that's great news! that way more people of all backgrounds can afford to live in Arlington. what's the problem with that?

Because what you’re saying is that you wish financial ill on current homeowners. Home values tanking has a real and immediate impact on those homeowners.

The poster sounds like a YIMBY because that is exactly what they are saying. They make fun of people who bought in Arlington in the last few years because they will lose all the equity in their properties when Missing Middle "crashes" (their term, not mine) housing prices. When I pointed out to one of them at a Community Conversation MMMH that the recent buyers probably have interest rates in the 3 to 4 percent range while new MMH buyers would have to pay in the 7 percent range. He seemed puzzled. Someone else jumped and explained to the difference between a mortgage at $600,000 at 4% and one at $600,000 at 7%. She painted herself as a "housing expert" but did not understand how interest rates worked.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I sincerely hope hope the MM passes.

It’s exactly what SFH’s in N Arl deserve for creating a Democrat stranglehold on everything. This is what they voted for, this is what they created, and it’s amazingly awesome to watch all the phony liberals freak out over MM 😂😂

MM++ -- I am a SFH owner in N Arlington and support MM. Requiring SFH zoning has been shown to be historically racist. Let's fix that.

Too bad MMH isn’t fixing the racial disparity with home ownership in Arlington. That is just a strawman MMH proponents like to use. Again, this is simply about providing more million dollar homes.

Sadly, MMH will force out more POC who are renting in Halls Hill and Green Valley, two black communities. The others with lower incomes who live in market rate housing and CAFs will continue to be ghettoized by Arlington County in South Arlington and around Arlington BLvd.

The desirable poors — older people, disabled, and white — will be allowed into North Arlington’s CAFs and set asides

Meanwhile, Plan Langston BLvd woukd have provided 1,600 affordable units and 4,600 market rate units off Langston BLvd. Scared of that possibility in an election year, the ACB pushed aside PLB for MMH that will benefit people who can well affirm to live in Arlington, just not in the type of housing to which they feel entitled. MMH will do nothing to enhance racial diversity or affordability in Arlington.


That means if any builder will bother to build the housing.

Aren’t most of the original homeowners in Hall’s Hill and Green Valley POC? Why aren’t they allowed to build equity or cash out like all the original white homeowners elsewhere in Arlington?

Considering home sites were sold in the early 20h Century in both Halls Hills and Nauck (now Green Valley), I suspect there are no original homeowners in those two communities. Even if there were, I referred to renters in the two communities, not homeowners. Most of the rental properties are owned by old white families that bought properties after World War II when African Americans were able to move more readily to outlying areas that were more amenable to them than heavily segregated Arlington

Of course, the African American homeowners throughout Arlington can sell their properties and realized the economic gain they deserve. It is more likely that anything new built on the properties will be sold to whites who value Arlington more than African Americans. This will diminish the diversity of Arlington even more, except for the ghettoized parts of South Arlington that are more likely to be Hispanic or refugees from the Middle East, Africa, and Central America.

Green valley is already upzoned. So is a portion of Halls Hill. Feel free to move on to the next red herring.

We live in Douglas Park which is just across Walter Reed Dr. from Nauck/Green Valley. That neighborhood was no up-zoned, because up-zoning is only for single family homes, not the R8-18 and R-14 zoning that is in parts of the neighborhood. Because of the existing multi-family housing, ACB says that the neighborhood lots that are zoned R-5 and R-6 are excluded from the zoning. Our civic association has been involved in with their civic association for several years about missing middle housing. Halls Hill/Highview Park has some of the same R-8-18 and R-14 zoning, but its R-6 and R-5 lots are not exempt from missing middle housing. We have seen a tremendous change in Nauck/Green Valley in he four years we have lived nearby, and I am guessing the same thing will happen with Halls Hill/Highview Park. From what I have seen, it is not a red herring to claim that neighborhoods will become more racially diverse. Most of the older black and hispanic people in our neighborhood have sold to flippers if their houses are in bad shape or to young white couples

Exactly. Those changes are happening under current zoning which already includes MM in those neighborhoods. It’s a red herring to say those neighborhoods will be less diverse with missing middle than under current zoning.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I sincerely hope hope the MM passes.

It’s exactly what SFH’s in N Arl deserve for creating a Democrat stranglehold on everything. This is what they voted for, this is what they created, and it’s amazingly awesome to watch all the phony liberals freak out over MM 😂😂

MM++ -- I am a SFH owner in N Arlington and support MM. Requiring SFH zoning has been shown to be historically racist. Let's fix that.

Too bad MMH isn’t fixing the racial disparity with home ownership in Arlington. That is just a strawman MMH proponents like to use. Again, this is simply about providing more million dollar homes.

Sadly, MMH will force out more POC who are renting in Halls Hill and Green Valley, two black communities. The others with lower incomes who live in market rate housing and CAFs will continue to be ghettoized by Arlington County in South Arlington and around Arlington BLvd.

The desirable poors — older people, disabled, and white — will be allowed into North Arlington’s CAFs and set asides

Meanwhile, Plan Langston BLvd woukd have provided 1,600 affordable units and 4,600 market rate units off Langston BLvd. Scared of that possibility in an election year, the ACB pushed aside PLB for MMH that will benefit people who can well affirm to live in Arlington, just not in the type of housing to which they feel entitled. MMH will do nothing to enhance racial diversity or affordability in Arlington.


That means if any builder will bother to build the housing.

Aren’t most of the original homeowners in Hall’s Hill and Green Valley POC? Why aren’t they allowed to build equity or cash out like all the original white homeowners elsewhere in Arlington?

Considering home sites were sold in the early 20h Century in both Halls Hills and Nauck (now Green Valley), I suspect there are no original homeowners in those two communities. Even if there were, I referred to renters in the two communities, not homeowners. Most of the rental properties are owned by old white families that bought properties after World War II when African Americans were able to move more readily to outlying areas that were more amenable to them than heavily segregated Arlington

Of course, the African American homeowners throughout Arlington can sell their properties and realized the economic gain they deserve. It is more likely that anything new built on the properties will be sold to whites who value Arlington more than African Americans. This will diminish the diversity of Arlington even more, except for the ghettoized parts of South Arlington that are more likely to be Hispanic or refugees from the Middle East, Africa, and Central America.

Green valley is already upzoned. So is a portion of Halls Hill. Feel free to move on to the next red herring.

We live in Douglas Park which is just across Walter Reed Dr. from Nauck/Green Valley. That neighborhood was no up-zoned, because up-zoning is only for single family homes, not the R8-18 and R-14 zoning that is in parts of the neighborhood. Because of the existing multi-family housing, ACB says that the neighborhood lots that are zoned R-5 and R-6 are excluded from the zoning. Our civic association has been involved in with their civic association for several years about missing middle housing. Halls Hill/Highview Park has some of the same R-8-18 and R-14 zoning, but its R-6 and R-5 lots are not exempt from missing middle housing. We have seen a tremendous change in Nauck/Green Valley in he four years we have lived nearby, and I am guessing the same thing will happen with Halls Hill/Highview Park. From what I have seen, it is not a red herring to claim that neighborhoods will become more racially diverse. Most of the older black and hispanic people in our neighborhood have sold to flippers if their houses are in bad shape or to young white couples

Exactly. Those changes are happening under current zoning which already includes MM in those neighborhoods. It’s a red herring to say those neighborhoods will be less diverse with missing middle than under current zoning.

Uh, there is no MM housing in those neighborhoods because MM has not been passed by the Arlington County Board. Agree, those neighborhoods will be less diverse under MM housing than under current zoning because the African Americans, Ethiopians, Eritreans, Salvadorans, Guatemalans, Hondurans, and Nepalese who currently live there will be gone and the neighborhood will be predominantly white.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Haven’t read all the pages on this, but just scanned a Boston fed report on increased density - even they say increased density makes neighborhoods less valuable/perceived quality declines for homeowners.

https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/2022/10/boston-fed-research-relaxing-density-restrictions-best-way-to-increase-multifamily-housing.aspx

“House prices would likely fall with rents if greater housing density is allowed
The authors find that zoning reform that relaxes density restrictions doesn’t just reduce rents. It also causes house prices to fall—including single-family house prices. Their analysis shows that allowing one more housing unit per acre in a Greater Boston neighborhood increases the number of units in that neighborhood by an average of 0.4. This increase results in the neighborhood’s rents dropping more than 5% and house prices falling more than 7% on average (see graphic). House prices drop because the housing supply increases. Or they fall because when a neighborhood becomes denser, its perceived quality declines.“

Obviously, Boston is bigger than Arlington so our supply may not make a difference to prices but the perceived quality sure will decline!

that's great news! that way more people of all backgrounds can afford to live in Arlington. what's the problem with that?

It's actually a catch 22. Once housing prices drop in Arlington, the "missing middle" will no longer be clamoring to live there. They only want to buy there now because they perceive that it's the ticket to wealth. But desirability does change over time. For example, PG County was viewed as being more desirable in the 1970s than it is today. (My parents lived in Greenbelt back then and said it was on par with desirable parts of Moco.) People shouldn't take for granted that just because Arlington is close in, it will always be desirable.

PG was decimated by busing. Unless Arlington's schools suddenly plummet in quality, I don't think you can compare it to what happened in PG 40 years ago.

Hmm, so they refuse to build enough schools, which will yield to massive school size and overcrowding, which very well could cause school performance to plummet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I sincerely hope hope the MM passes.

It’s exactly what SFH’s in N Arl deserve for creating a Democrat stranglehold on everything. This is what they voted for, this is what they created, and it’s amazingly awesome to watch all the phony liberals freak out over MM 😂😂

MM++ -- I am a SFH owner in N Arlington and support MM. Requiring SFH zoning has been shown to be historically racist. Let's fix that.

Too bad MMH isn’t fixing the racial disparity with home ownership in Arlington. That is just a strawman MMH proponents like to use. Again, this is simply about providing more million dollar homes.

Sadly, MMH will force out more POC who are renting in Halls Hill and Green Valley, two black communities. The others with lower incomes who live in market rate housing and CAFs will continue to be ghettoized by Arlington County in South Arlington and around Arlington BLvd.

The desirable poors — older people, disabled, and white — will be allowed into North Arlington’s CAFs and set asides

Meanwhile, Plan Langston BLvd woukd have provided 1,600 affordable units and 4,600 market rate units off Langston BLvd. Scared of that possibility in an election year, the ACB pushed aside PLB for MMH that will benefit people who can well affirm to live in Arlington, just not in the type of housing to which they feel entitled. MMH will do nothing to enhance racial diversity or affordability in Arlington.


That means if any builder will bother to build the housing.

Aren’t most of the original homeowners in Hall’s Hill and Green Valley POC? Why aren’t they allowed to build equity or cash out like all the original white homeowners elsewhere in Arlington?

Considering home sites were sold in the early 20h Century in both Halls Hills and Nauck (now Green Valley), I suspect there are no original homeowners in those two communities. Even if there were, I referred to renters in the two communities, not homeowners. Most of the rental properties are owned by old white families that bought properties after World War II when African Americans were able to move more readily to outlying areas that were more amenable to them than heavily segregated Arlington

Of course, the African American homeowners throughout Arlington can sell their properties and realized the economic gain they deserve. It is more likely that anything new built on the properties will be sold to whites who value Arlington more than African Americans. This will diminish the diversity of Arlington even more, except for the ghettoized parts of South Arlington that are more likely to be Hispanic or refugees from the Middle East, Africa, and Central America.

Green valley is already upzoned. So is a portion of Halls Hill. Feel free to move on to the next red herring.

We live in Douglas Park which is just across Walter Reed Dr. from Nauck/Green Valley. That neighborhood was no up-zoned, because up-zoning is only for single family homes, not the R8-18 and R-14 zoning that is in parts of the neighborhood. Because of the existing multi-family housing, ACB says that the neighborhood lots that are zoned R-5 and R-6 are excluded from the zoning. Our civic association has been involved in with their civic association for several years about missing middle housing. Halls Hill/Highview Park has some of the same R-8-18 and R-14 zoning, but its R-6 and R-5 lots are not exempt from missing middle housing. We have seen a tremendous change in Nauck/Green Valley in he four years we have lived nearby, and I am guessing the same thing will happen with Halls Hill/Highview Park. From what I have seen, it is not a red herring to claim that neighborhoods will become more racially diverse. Most of the older black and hispanic people in our neighborhood have sold to flippers if their houses are in bad shape or to young white couples

Are you saying R-5 and R-6 are excluded from the proposed missing middle?