Arlington Missing Middle Housing Q&A

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Haven’t read all the pages on this, but just scanned a Boston fed report on increased density - even they say increased density makes neighborhoods less valuable/perceived quality declines for homeowners.

https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/2022/10/boston-fed-research-relaxing-density-restrictions-best-way-to-increase-multifamily-housing.aspx

“House prices would likely fall with rents if greater housing density is allowed
The authors find that zoning reform that relaxes density restrictions doesn’t just reduce rents. It also causes house prices to fall—including single-family house prices. Their analysis shows that allowing one more housing unit per acre in a Greater Boston neighborhood increases the number of units in that neighborhood by an average of 0.4. This increase results in the neighborhood’s rents dropping more than 5% and house prices falling more than 7% on average (see graphic). House prices drop because the housing supply increases. Or they fall because when a neighborhood becomes denser, its perceived quality declines.“

Obviously, Boston is bigger than Arlington so our supply may not make a difference to prices but the perceived quality sure will decline!

that's great news! that way more people of all backgrounds can afford to live in Arlington. what's the problem with that?

It's actually a catch 22. Once housing prices drop in Arlington, the "missing middle" will no longer be clamoring to live there. They only want to buy there now because they perceive that it's the ticket to wealth. But desirability does change over time. For example, PG County was viewed as being more desirable in the 1970s than it is today. (My parents lived in Greenbelt back then and said it was on par with desirable parts of Moco.) People shouldn't take for granted that just because Arlington is close in, it will always be desirable.

Same here. I grew up in Sleepy Hollow in Falls Church, and the schools were very good and the neighborhoods were middle to upper middle class. My parents sold their house on 3/4 of an acre for less than what we paid for an entry level house in Arlington. When we realized that Yorktown high school did not have the classes we wanted our out kids, we moved to McLean. Now my old neighbors are putting their elementary school kids into catholic and private schools. Arlington is becoming more like Alexandria with a divide between the rich and the poor. Sorry to say, but the missing middle people will be on the side of the rich, not the poor, and will only accelerate the decline of Arlington.

What part of McLean are you in?

[Anonymous]

MM is an issue created by the Arlington Co. Board to advance an agenda. MM is NOT something that Arlington residents asked for or even thought was an issue. The whole Board needs to be replaced in order for the residents of the county to actually be heard. There needs to be balance representation of the people living in the county not a single party Board with very little first hand knowledge/understanding of what the residents want and what issue ARE important TO THEM.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Haven’t read all the pages on this, but just scanned a Boston fed report on increased density - even they say increased density makes neighborhoods less valuable/perceived quality declines for homeowners.

https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/2022/10/boston-fed-research-relaxing-density-restrictions-best-way-to-increase-multifamily-housing.aspx

“House prices would likely fall with rents if greater housing density is allowed
The authors find that zoning reform that relaxes density restrictions doesn’t just reduce rents. It also causes house prices to fall—including single-family house prices. Their analysis shows that allowing one more housing unit per acre in a Greater Boston neighborhood increases the number of units in that neighborhood by an average of 0.4. This increase results in the neighborhood’s rents dropping more than 5% and house prices falling more than 7% on average (see graphic). House prices drop because the housing supply increases. Or they fall because when a neighborhood becomes denser, its perceived quality declines.“

Obviously, Boston is bigger than Arlington so our supply may not make a difference to prices but the perceived quality sure will decline!

that's great news! that way more people of all backgrounds can afford to live in Arlington. what's the problem with that?

It's actually a catch 22. Once housing prices drop in Arlington, the "missing middle" will no longer be clamoring to live there. They only want to buy there now because they perceive that it's the ticket to wealth. But desirability does change over time. For example, PG County was viewed as being more desirable in the 1970s than it is today. (My parents lived in Greenbelt back then and said it was on par with desirable parts of Moco.) People shouldn't take for granted that just because Arlington is close in, it will always be desirable.

You are right about that. It’s not just be close in. It’s the access to the metro and now the fact that Arlington has been built up with businesses and retail. Your argument is make believe bc you can’t stand the idea that your house value might actually come down to be in line with what it’s actually worth.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Haven’t read all the pages on this, but just scanned a Boston fed report on increased density - even they say increased density makes neighborhoods less valuable/perceived quality declines for homeowners.

https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/2022/10/boston-fed-research-relaxing-density-restrictions-best-way-to-increase-multifamily-housing.aspx

“House prices would likely fall with rents if greater housing density is allowed
The authors find that zoning reform that relaxes density restrictions doesn’t just reduce rents. It also causes house prices to fall—including single-family house prices. Their analysis shows that allowing one more housing unit per acre in a Greater Boston neighborhood increases the number of units in that neighborhood by an average of 0.4. This increase results in the neighborhood’s rents dropping more than 5% and house prices falling more than 7% on average (see graphic). House prices drop because the housing supply increases. Or they fall because when a neighborhood becomes denser, its perceived quality declines.“

Obviously, Boston is bigger than Arlington so our supply may not make a difference to prices but the perceived quality sure will decline!

that's great news! that way more people of all backgrounds can afford to live in Arlington. what's the problem with that?

It's actually a catch 22. Once housing prices drop in Arlington, the "missing middle" will no longer be clamoring to live there. They only want to buy there now because they perceive that it's the ticket to wealth. But desirability does change over time. For example, PG County was viewed as being more desirable in the 1970s than it is today. (My parents lived in Greenbelt back then and said it was on par with desirable parts of Moco.) People shouldn't take for granted that just because Arlington is close in, it will always be desirable.

Same here. I grew up in Sleepy Hollow in Falls Church, and the schools were very good and the neighborhoods were middle to upper middle class. My parents sold their house on 3/4 of an acre for less than what we paid for an entry level house in Arlington. When we realized that Yorktown high school did not have the classes we wanted our out kids, we moved to McLean. Now my old neighbors are putting their elementary school kids into catholic and private schools. Arlington is becoming more like Alexandria with a divide between the rich and the poor. Sorry to say, but the missing middle people will be on the side of the rich, not the poor, and will only accelerate the decline of Arlington.

What part of McLean are you in?

DP and I have lived in Alexandria City and now Arlington.
Arlington should not allow any more low income / affordable housing to be built.
If they don’t you are right they will end up just like Alex City
Instead they could focus on work force housing which actually is hit those in the middle class

[Anonymous]

election results: https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2022%20November%20General/Site/Locality/ARLINGTON_COUNTY/Index.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Haven’t read all the pages on this, but just scanned a Boston fed report on increased density - even they say increased density makes neighborhoods less valuable/perceived quality declines for homeowners.

https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/2022/10/boston-fed-research-relaxing-density-restrictions-best-way-to-increase-multifamily-housing.aspx

“House prices would likely fall with rents if greater housing density is allowed
The authors find that zoning reform that relaxes density restrictions doesn’t just reduce rents. It also causes house prices to fall—including single-family house prices. Their analysis shows that allowing one more housing unit per acre in a Greater Boston neighborhood increases the number of units in that neighborhood by an average of 0.4. This increase results in the neighborhood’s rents dropping more than 5% and house prices falling more than 7% on average (see graphic). House prices drop because the housing supply increases. Or they fall because when a neighborhood becomes denser, its perceived quality declines.“

Obviously, Boston is bigger than Arlington so our supply may not make a difference to prices but the perceived quality sure will decline!

that's great news! that way more people of all backgrounds can afford to live in Arlington. what's the problem with that?

It's actually a catch 22. Once housing prices drop in Arlington, the "missing middle" will no longer be clamoring to live there. They only want to buy there now because they perceive that it's the ticket to wealth. But desirability does change over time. For example, PG County was viewed as being more desirable in the 1970s than it is today. (My parents lived in Greenbelt back then and said it was on par with desirable parts of Moco.) People shouldn't take for granted that just because Arlington is close in, it will always be desirable.

Same here. I grew up in Sleepy Hollow in Falls Church, and the schools were very good and the neighborhoods were middle to upper middle class. My parents sold their house on 3/4 of an acre for less than what we paid for an entry level house in Arlington. When we realized that Yorktown high school did not have the classes we wanted our out kids, we moved to McLean. Now my old neighbors are putting their elementary school kids into catholic and private schools. Arlington is becoming more like Alexandria with a divide between the rich and the poor. Sorry to say, but the missing middle people will be on the side of the rich, not the poor, and will only accelerate the decline of Arlington.

What part of McLean are you in?

Chesterbrook Woods

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Haven’t read all the pages on this, but just scanned a Boston fed report on increased density - even they say increased density makes neighborhoods less valuable/perceived quality declines for homeowners.

https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/2022/10/boston-fed-research-relaxing-density-restrictions-best-way-to-increase-multifamily-housing.aspx

“House prices would likely fall with rents if greater housing density is allowed
The authors find that zoning reform that relaxes density restrictions doesn’t just reduce rents. It also causes house prices to fall—including single-family house prices. Their analysis shows that allowing one more housing unit per acre in a Greater Boston neighborhood increases the number of units in that neighborhood by an average of 0.4. This increase results in the neighborhood’s rents dropping more than 5% and house prices falling more than 7% on average (see graphic). House prices drop because the housing supply increases. Or they fall because when a neighborhood becomes denser, its perceived quality declines.“

Obviously, Boston is bigger than Arlington so our supply may not make a difference to prices but the perceived quality sure will decline!

that's great news! that way more people of all backgrounds can afford to live in Arlington. what's the problem with that?

Because what you’re saying is that you wish financial ill on current homeowners. Home values tanking has a real and immediate impact on those homeowners.

Maybe in the short term. Are you saying that someone who lives in Arlington for a decade or more will lose money on their house?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Haven’t read all the pages on this, but just scanned a Boston fed report on increased density - even they say increased density makes neighborhoods less valuable/perceived quality declines for homeowners.

https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/2022/10/boston-fed-research-relaxing-density-restrictions-best-way-to-increase-multifamily-housing.aspx

“House prices would likely fall with rents if greater housing density is allowed
The authors find that zoning reform that relaxes density restrictions doesn’t just reduce rents. It also causes house prices to fall—including single-family house prices. Their analysis shows that allowing one more housing unit per acre in a Greater Boston neighborhood increases the number of units in that neighborhood by an average of 0.4. This increase results in the neighborhood’s rents dropping more than 5% and house prices falling more than 7% on average (see graphic). House prices drop because the housing supply increases. Or they fall because when a neighborhood becomes denser, its perceived quality declines.“

Obviously, Boston is bigger than Arlington so our supply may not make a difference to prices but the perceived quality sure will decline!

that's great news! that way more people of all backgrounds can afford to live in Arlington. what's the problem with that?

It's actually a catch 22. Once housing prices drop in Arlington, the "missing middle" will no longer be clamoring to live there. They only want to buy there now because they perceive that it's the ticket to wealth. But desirability does change over time. For example, PG County was viewed as being more desirable in the 1970s than it is today. (My parents lived in Greenbelt back then and said it was on par with desirable parts of Moco.) People shouldn't take for granted that just because Arlington is close in, it will always be desirable.

Same here. I grew up in Sleepy Hollow in Falls Church, and the schools were very good and the neighborhoods were middle to upper middle class. My parents sold their house on 3/4 of an acre for less than what we paid for an entry level house in Arlington. When we realized that Yorktown high school did not have the classes we wanted our out kids, we moved to McLean. Now my old neighbors are putting their elementary school kids into catholic and private schools. Arlington is becoming more like Alexandria with a divide between the rich and the poor. Sorry to say, but the missing middle people will be on the side of the rich, not the poor, and will only accelerate the decline of Arlington.

What part of McLean are you in?

Chesterbrook Woods

I guess if MM is a go in ARL, Chainbridge Forest [Mclean and ARL] could get this type of paveover? https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/1227-N-Utah-St-22201/home/11244058

The PP moved to Mclean HS in boundary from Yorktown HS for equivalent houses and neighborhoods? That is $$$ in closing costs. For what? An old bilevel, split, or rambler swap? There are not enough private schools seats to absorb mass moves out of public.

[Anonymous]

Oh goodness, you know nothing about Arlington or McLean. The 1227 N. Utah St. house is in Ballston with a bunch of new houses being built around it. It was originally a single family home, and was converted to two 2 bedrooms, 1 bath apartments and one 1 bedroom, 1 bath in the basement. It is also on a small lot. The lots in both the Arlington and McLean parts of Chain Bridge Forest are from a quarter to an acre. What would make them attractive to missing middle housing is their topography. Many have lot that slope down hill, so that you could build a quadplex that looked like two stories from the front but would actually have two stores on the back. The two "below grade" levels would have plenty of light. There area also no nearby amenities found in the Ballston area but the schools are much more desirable, and that is the point of building missing middle housing in that area.

Our house in Arlington was a 1940s colonial on a 5,800 square foot lot. We had maxed out the yard space with an addition. Our house in Chesterbrook Woods is twice as large and the lot is a little over a half acre. So it was not a direct swap.

McLean High School offers a number of AP classes that Yorktown does not. We continue to supplement the math classes with RSM, so we pay only for that private schooling.

Both the private and parochial schools managed to absorb many students during the pandemic and have the capacity to do more. Sycamore School moved to a new building, and both St. Agnes and St. Ann added classes. There is a good deal of vacant office building space in Arlington, and it would be easy for a private school to move in to any of that space. A Montessori school is moving into some retail space in my mom's Arlington condo building, and the HB Woodlawn program is in an office building in Rosslyn.

Rivendell also just built out its school and could add more classes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Oh goodness, you know nothing about Arlington or McLean. The 1227 N. Utah St. house is in Ballston with a bunch of new houses being built around it. It was originally a single family home, and was converted to two 2 bedrooms, 1 bath apartments and one 1 bedroom, 1 bath ...

So you think Chainbridge Forest and the whole strip off Glebe and Old Dominion should be just fine with triplexes or quadraplexes like 1227 N. Utah? Plop it down on a lot with some extra green around the edges? I do know alot about North ARL and Mclean. What's next? Chesterbrook Woods is in the general area. Maybe FX County will allow 3-6 unit dwellings on lots there as well in a MM initiative. There are no new privates on the scope of a SSSA or Potomac. I haven't seen Bullis -VA plus Flint Hill plus Sidwell-VA East east pop up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Oh goodness, you know nothing about Arlington or McLean. The 1227 N. Utah St. house is in Ballston with a bunch of new houses being built around it. It was originally a single family home, and was converted to two 2 bedrooms, 1 bath apartments and one 1 bedroom, 1 bath ...

So you think Chainbridge Forest and the whole strip off Glebe and Old Dominion should be just fine with triplexes or quadraplexes like 1227 N. Utah? Plop it down on a lot with some extra green around the edges? I do know alot about North ARL and Mclean. What's next? Chesterbrook Woods is in the general area. Maybe FX County will allow 3-6 unit dwellings on lots there as well in a MM initiative. There are no new privates on the scope of a SSSA or Potomac. I haven't seen Bullis -VA plus Flint Hill plus Sidwell-VA East east pop up.

Another poster stated "if MM is a go in ARL, Chainbridge Forest {Mclean and ARL] could get this type of paveover." I have no idea what will happen with Missing Middle Housing in Arlington. I was simply stating that the lots in Chain Bridge Forest would lend themselves to building 3-6 unit buildings. Whether that will happen in the short or long term in Arlington is anyone's guess.

Fairfax County has done a better job of managing development and has much more land area. The County is smart enough to leave Chain Bridge Forest, McLean, as it is -- and will encourage renovations. Any tear down will be replaced by a single family home.

To me the big benefit of Missing Middle Housing is a possible expansion of Arlington's Accessory Dwelling Unit program. If we had stayed in Arlington, we may have built an ADU in our basement or yard for parents, but the restriction to 1,000 square feet is small. If about 1,500 square feet was allowed on two levels, it might have been better. As prices continue to increase either aging parents can provide some funds to build the ADU or a homeowner can build one, rent it, and defray some of the monthly PITI.

[Anonymous]

As a current owner of a house zoned for single family use, I wonder if the modified zoning will increase the value of our house when it comes time to sell. I can see our home being a tear down and our lot is pretty big. Am I wrong to think we may benefit from the change?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:As a current owner of a house zoned for single family use, I wonder if the modified zoning will increase the value of our house when it comes time to sell. I can see our home being a tear down and our lot is pretty big. Am I wrong to think we may benefit from the change?

That's one possibility. Another possibility is that land prices come down as Arlington becomes a less desirable place to live. There's also some question as to whether demand exists for $1.3 million townhomes, and $600K units in an 8-plex. Builders might build MM housing and have trouble selling them, and decide to go back to SFHs. So maybe land prices don't change much at all. No one knows.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Haven’t read all the pages on this, but just scanned a Boston fed report on increased density - even they say increased density makes neighborhoods less valuable/perceived quality declines for homeowners.

https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/2022/10/boston-fed-research-relaxing-density-restrictions-best-way-to-increase-multifamily-housing.aspx

“House prices would likely fall with rents if greater housing density is allowed
The authors find that zoning reform that relaxes density restrictions doesn’t just reduce rents. It also causes house prices to fall—including single-family house prices. Their analysis shows that allowing one more housing unit per acre in a Greater Boston neighborhood increases the number of units in that neighborhood by an average of 0.4. This increase results in the neighborhood’s rents dropping more than 5% and house prices falling more than 7% on average (see graphic). House prices drop because the housing supply increases. Or they fall because when a neighborhood becomes denser, its perceived quality declines.“

Obviously, Boston is bigger than Arlington so our supply may not make a difference to prices but the perceived quality sure will decline!

that's great news! that way more people of all backgrounds can afford to live in Arlington. what's the problem with that?

In theory it sounds good. But I don't think prices will decrease in any meaningful way. Affordable housing in desirable areas doesn't just doesn't seem to pan out. If you can't afford to live in an area, go live somewhere else. I would love to live in San Diego, but here I am in DC

+1 to this.
Developers say this will bring affordable housing to make it more palatable, and the BOS will probably fall for it but there's no way the housing created from this will be affordable.

I don't know which developers are saying this, but the builders I work with think MMH will help them in several ways. First, they can build multiple units on one lot and the combined price of the units will be higher than the price of one house, even given the higher construction costs. Second, ArlCo will have to relax standards on set backs, lot coverage, and storm water management to get developers to build MMH. Builders can then argue that ArlCo has to do the same for single houses.

And why would this be good public policy?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:As a current owner of a house zoned for single family use, I wonder if the modified zoning will increase the value of our house when it comes time to sell. I can see our home being a tear down and our lot is pretty big. Am I wrong to think we may benefit from the change?

Depends on when you sell your house. If there are only a few multi-family structures in your neighborhood when you sell, you will probably do better than selling it as a single family home. Depending on lot size, a builder can build 3 to 8 housing units on your lot. If the neighborhood is primarily multi-family, it will be more like Clarendon and Ballston with chockablock cars and renters who don't care of housing units the way owner occupants do. There will also be a lot of resentment among people in single family homes toward the people who ruined their neighborhoods. There will be block parties for the single family houses and birthday parties for their kids. The multi-family people can do the same.