2022 Senate Map

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't see the reasoning for Hogan staying out of the Senate race. He's not that old. He's pretty popular in MD across the political spectrum. This should be a no-brainer decision for him.

I'm guessing he might have unpublicized health issues/cancer reemergence and that's giving him pause. If that's the case, then it's better to spend out the rest of your years with your family instead of commuting to Capitol Hill.

What does he get out of it though? If he wants to be president, it will be awful for him. He’s going to be forced to take lots of MAGA positions or become a pariah of the MAGAs as another Mitt.

+1 And all former Governors who are Senators were happier as Governors.

[Anonymous]

Van Hollen has no name recognition in MD. Biden's low approval numbers will sink him and if turnout is low.

I think Hogan would be a very competitive race. Especially if voters are looking to punish the democrats in Nov.

[Anonymous]

Stacey Abrams has registered a million voters for this cycle. I think that should bode well for Warnock as well. Does anyone actually think wacky Herschel Walker has a chance?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Stacey Abrams has registered a million voters for this cycle. I think that should bode well for Warnock as well. Does anyone actually think wacky Herschel Walker has a chance?

Georgia Democrats flipped 41 state legislature seats in 21 counties in Georgia last time around. Democrats in the rest of the country should be taking out their notepads and paying close attention to Abrams.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't see the reasoning for Hogan staying out of the Senate race. He's not that old. He's pretty popular in MD across the political spectrum. This should be a no-brainer decision for him.

I'm guessing he might have unpublicized health issues/cancer reemergence and that's giving him pause. If that's the case, then it's better to spend out the rest of your years with your family instead of commuting to Capitol Hill.

He might have presidential ambitions and a term in the Senate being browbeaten and cowed by McConnell probably isn't going to help his credentials.

He might have ambitions, but unless Trumpism dies, he doesn't stand a chance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't see the reasoning for Hogan staying out of the Senate race. He's not that old. He's pretty popular in MD across the political spectrum. This should be a no-brainer decision for him.

I'm guessing he might have unpublicized health issues/cancer reemergence and that's giving him pause. If that's the case, then it's better to spend out the rest of your years with your family instead of commuting to Capitol Hill.

He might have presidential ambitions and a term in the Senate being browbeaten and cowed by McConnell probably isn't going to help his credentials.

He might have ambitions, but unless Trumpism dies, he doesn't stand a chance.

I agree with that! He may be making the calculation that eventually the party will no longer be in thrall to the Trumpist wing (God, wouldn't that be nice!). But if he's going to try to take his whole sensible moderate Republican shtick nationwide, a Senate term in which he is bullyragged by Mitch into obstructing reasonable legislation and taking MAGA positions may very well spell the end of his ambitions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't see the reasoning for Hogan staying out of the Senate race. He's not that old. He's pretty popular in MD across the political spectrum. This should be a no-brainer decision for him.

I'm guessing he might have unpublicized health issues/cancer reemergence and that's giving him pause. If that's the case, then it's better to spend out the rest of your years with your family instead of commuting to Capitol Hill.

He might have presidential ambitions and a term in the Senate being browbeaten and cowed by McConnell probably isn't going to help his credentials.

He might have ambitions, but unless Trumpism dies, he doesn't stand a chance.

I agree with that! He may be making the calculation that eventually the party will no longer be in thrall to the Trumpist wing (God, wouldn't that be nice!). But if he's going to try to take his whole sensible moderate Republican shtick nationwide, a Senate term in which he is bullyragged by Mitch into obstructing reasonable legislation and taking MAGA positions may very well spell the end of his ambitions.

Exactly. The trick will be keeping his name in the news without becoming associated with the MAGAs and also not becoming the object of their hate. A position in the senate doesn’t fit the bill.

[Anonymous]

Good summary of all the crazy in the Arizona GOP primary race to decide who goes up against Mark Kelly.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/12/us/politics/lets-go-brandon-meme-gop.html?searchResultPosition=1

[Anonymous]

Q poll

R+4 on generic senate ballot.

McConnell could have a 3 seat majority by this time next year

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Q poll

R+4 on generic senate ballot.

McConnell could have a 3 seat majority by this time next year

Generic ballot says very little about senate because of staggered terms. Where do you think these three will come from? There are only 3 D seats that are theoretically competitive, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. If Ducey doesn’t get into the Arizona race, the GOP won’t have a competitive candidate there. Walker is polling at a tie with Warnock based on name recognition, but will probably go down once the attack ads about his crazy past start up in earnest. Cortez-Masto is polling comfortably ahead of Laxalt and Nevada is the least competitive of the three. And Ds have a couple serious pick up opportunities in PA and WI that could offset losses any of those three.

[Anonymous]

Model on the +4 senate gain correlating with Biden's approval ratings

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/01/14/what_bidens_approval_rating_means_for_the_midterms_147029.html

Saw a weird article on WH aide OMalley claiming that Biden's approval ratings are really low 40s rather high 30s. These are both terribad ratings

[Anonymous]

This doesn’t sound like someone who’s about to run for Senate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This doesn’t sound like someone who’s about to run for Senate.

I agree. 2024 or bust for Larry, depending on how things shake out with Trump and the GOP.

I think he may also have health issues, so he may just decide to retire into the sunset on a high note and enjoy the years he has left.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This doesn’t sound like someone who’s about to run for Senate.

I agree. 2024 or bust for Larry, depending on how things shake out with Trump and the GOP.

I think he may also have health issues, so he may just decide to retire into the sunset on a high note and enjoy the years he has left.

He’s a recent cancer survivor right? I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he just hangs it up after leaving office. He could easily get into the talking head/speech-giver circuit and start raking in the $$$ and accolades while also taking more care of his health.