Jeff Selingo on people skipping "target schools"

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Revised

Group 1: Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Penn, Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, MIT, CalTech, Stanford, Duke, Johns Hopkins, Northwestern, U Chicago

Group 2: Rice, Vanderbilt, ND, Georgetown, Carnegie Mellon, Emory, WashU, USC, NYU

Group 3: Wake Forest, BU, BC, Tufts, Northeastern, Lehigh, Rochester, CWRU, Villanova,

Group 4: Brandeis, RPI, Santa Clara, GW, Syracuse, Tulane, Pepperdine, Stevens Inst. Tech, WPI, Marquette, Fordham, SMU, Baylor, Gonzaga, LMU, Drexel, RIT, TCU, USD

Feel better?

Northeastern. SMH.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Revised

Group 1: Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Penn, Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, MIT, CalTech, Stanford, Duke, Johns Hopkins, Northwestern, U Chicago

Group 2: Rice, Vanderbilt, ND, Georgetown, Carnegie Mellon, Emory, WashU, USC, NYU

Group 3: Wake Forest, BU, BC, Tufts, Northeastern, Lehigh, Rochester, CWRU, Villanova,

Group 4: Brandeis, RPI, Santa Clara, GW, Syracuse, Tulane, Pepperdine, Stevens Inst. Tech, WPI, Marquette, Fordham, SMU, Baylor, Gonzaga, LMU, Drexel, RIT, TCU, USD

Why isn't UMiami on this list? It's better than the group 4 schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Revised

Group 1: Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Penn, Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, MIT, CalTech, Stanford, Duke, Johns Hopkins, Northwestern, U Chicago

Group 2: Rice, Vanderbilt, ND, Georgetown, Carnegie Mellon, Emory, WashU, USC, NYU

Group 3: Wake Forest, BU, BC, Tufts, Northeastern, Lehigh, Rochester, CWRU, Villanova,

Group 4: Brandeis, RPI, Santa Clara, GW, Syracuse, Tulane, Pepperdine, Stevens Inst. Tech, WPI, Marquette, Fordham, SMU, Baylor, Gonzaga, LMU, Drexel, RIT, TCU, USD

I always think the unconscious east coast regional bias on DCUM is so funny. These groups (and the other PPs above you) are the grouping of a specific group of anxious east coasters. For instance there are very few Californian students and employers that would rank Lehigh over (say) Santa Clara. The thought is incomprehensible. I don’t think a lot of California employers know Lehigh exists.

Also, the group 4 needs to be split. Marquette and gonzaga are great schools but rpi/wpi are both in a different category than those (the rpi and wpi are higher)

I know—have kid at a group 3–whose safety was wpi. My other kids acceptance list and where they aattneded was in group 4, yet there is no comparison between MU/gonzaga and wpi (not dissing either—my kid graduated from one and had the other as 2 nd choice)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Revised

Group 1: Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Penn, Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, MIT, CalTech, Stanford, Duke, Johns Hopkins, Northwestern, U Chicago

Group 2: Rice, Vanderbilt, ND, Georgetown, Carnegie Mellon, Emory, WashU, USC, NYU

Group 3: Wake Forest, BU, BC, Tufts, Northeastern, Lehigh, Rochester, CWRU, Villanova,

Group 4: Brandeis, RPI, Santa Clara, GW, Syracuse, Tulane, Pepperdine, Stevens Inst. Tech, WPI, Marquette, Fordham, SMU, Baylor, Gonzaga, LMU, Drexel, RIT, TCU, USD

Feel better?

Got angry?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Revised

Group 1: Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Penn, Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, MIT, CalTech, Stanford, Duke, Johns Hopkins, Northwestern, U Chicago

Group 2: Rice, Vanderbilt, ND, Georgetown, Carnegie Mellon, Emory, WashU, USC, NYU

Group 3: Wake Forest, BU, BC, Tufts, Northeastern, Lehigh, Rochester, CWRU, Villanova,

Group 4: Brandeis, RPI, Santa Clara, GW, Syracuse, Tulane, Pepperdine, Stevens Inst. Tech, WPI, Marquette, Fordham, SMU, Baylor, Gonzaga, LMU, Drexel, RIT, TCU, USD

I always think the unconscious east coast regional bias on DCUM is so funny. These groups (and the other PPs above you) are the grouping of a specific group of anxious east coasters. For instance there are very few Californian students and employers that would rank Lehigh over (say) Santa Clara. The thought is incomprehensible. I don’t think a lot of California employers know Lehigh exists.

Santa Clara has 50% acceptance rate

Current USN&WR ranking
Lehigh: 47
Santa Clara: 60

Which really just goes to show how useless the rankings are when it comes to the massive numbers of students on the west coast.

Feel free to continue to take the position that California students, most of whom want to work in California, will pick Lehigh because some ranking says it is better.

The regional delusion is real, I guess.

Santa Clara received 18,844 application for class of 2027
Acceptance rate 50%
Yield 17%

It's just not it.




It's just not it.

[Anonymous]

Pepperdine is even more ridiculous on that list. It’s a middling religious school with a 53 percent acceptance rate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We have a higher income than that, and were just looking at LACs, but I agree that it's hard to justify full-pay for a school like Haverford, Colby, Bates, F&M, or Vassar, when you can get $30K/year or more in merit aid at many schools ranked in the 30-50 range. My kid ED'd at one of them and got merit aid. If he'd decided to ED at, say, Bates, and got in, we would have paid, but I'm feeling much better about paying a lot less for a school that is pretty much the same in quality.

I disagree with the concept that people are skipping "target schools." Many schools in that 30-50 range could not be considered safeties. They were targets for my kid (3.7UW, 1460 SAT) but still offer significant merit aid if accepted.

Agree. The only disagreement I have with the OP is that the “skip over” schools are more highly ranked (more like 20-50). In my DC’s experience, the schools ranked above 50 gave generous merit aid. My kid applied ED to a top 20 school and didn’t get in, but was glad in the end, because they got into a very similar, if less highly ranked, school with a lot of merit aid. The merit aid made it possible to turn down the in state flagship, which would have had free tuition. They get to attend the smaller school they wanted and still have college fund $$ left over for graduate school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Pepperdine is even more ridiculous on that list. It’s a middling religious school with a 53 percent acceptance rate.

The acceptance rates at niche schools are always higher due to self selected applicant pools. Acceptance rates are about popularity among applicants who are not going to get admitted anyway, not caliber of the programs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Revised

Group 1: Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Penn, Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, MIT, CalTech, Stanford, Duke, Johns Hopkins, Northwestern, U Chicago

Group 2: Rice, Vanderbilt, ND, Georgetown, Carnegie Mellon, Emory, WashU, USC, NYU

Group 3: Wake Forest, BU, BC, Tufts, Northeastern, Lehigh, Rochester, CWRU, Villanova,

Group 4: Brandeis, RPI, Santa Clara, GW, Syracuse, Tulane, Pepperdine, Stevens Inst. Tech, WPI, Marquette, Fordham, SMU, Baylor, Gonzaga, LMU, Drexel, RIT, TCU, USD

I always think the unconscious east coast regional bias on DCUM is so funny. These groups (and the other PPs above you) are the grouping of a specific group of anxious east coasters. For instance there are very few Californian students and employers that would rank Lehigh over (say) Santa Clara. The thought is incomprehensible. I don’t think a lot of California employers know Lehigh exists.

Santa Clara has 50% acceptance rate

Current USN&WR ranking
Lehigh: 47
Santa Clara: 60

Acceptance rate doesn't matter in this analysis.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I agree - this is our plan.

I have been saying for a few years that I think grad school is the new college, so it makes sense to go to a state college and save some $ for grad school.

I honestly don't understand this logic at all. So many grad schools / grad degrees produce kids with poor outcomes. So many jobs/industries don't care about a grad degree whatsoever.

This is another skewed DMV perspective that worked for you, but you can't rely on it holding going forward.

I can think of professions where graduate school is essential (medicine, law, etc). Maybe you mean graduate school isn’t *always* a good idea?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Markets will adjust and Ivy-plus will begin offering more made or reducing cost of attendance in other ways.

+1 This!

At some point the 'bubble' will burst and even the Ivy-plus schools will have to adjust as there won't be enough people with the requisite stats and also wealthy enough to pay for 5%+ expense increases per year. Either they'd have to significantly lower standards to let in others who can afford it or get creative with pricing and aid (eg. do what Purdue U. is doing) in order to maintain standards. Bubbles eventually burst no matter how long it takes, circa 2008 Real Estate.

Ivy+ are need blind and meet 100% need. So don't hold your breath for anything to change.

“Need blind” worked in the past because the applicant pool for these colleges was naturally skewed to the affluent end of the spectrum. That is why these school have to have a finger on the scale for “first Gen” etc. (because that’s the only way they get significant numbers of those kids). They couldn’t afford to meet full need if the majority of their students needed a full ride, and there aren’t enough of “money is no object” students (unless they lower standards). They need the UMC to continue to believe that their luxury good is worth paying for.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Here are the US News Top 100 National Universities (private only). Not talking SLACs. I broke them into three groups but they stay in ranking order, all of group 2 is higher ranked than group 3.

If you could, almost all would pay for Group 1.
I agree that Group 2 is more and more popular, with UMC families and they are often choosing ED to lock in a slot, when they think they won't get into Group 1.
Of Group 3, which would you pay full price? I think this is the group that Jeff Selingo is talking about people preferring a state school, though some of these schools are extremely popular.

Group 1: Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Penn, Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth,MIT, CalTech, Stanford, Duke, Johns Hopkins, Northwestern, U Chicago, Rice

Group 2: Vanderbilt, ND, Georgetown, Carnegie Mellon, Emory, WashU St.Louis, USC, NYU, BC, Tufts, BU

Group 3: Lehigh, Rochester, Wake Forest, CWRU, Northeastern, Brandeis, RPI, Santa Clara, GW, Syracuse, Villanova, Tulane, Pepperdine, Stevens Inst. Tech, WPI, Marquette, Fordham, SMU, Baylor, Gonzaga, LMU, Drexel, RIT, TCU, USD

Except he’s talking about schools that don’t offer merit, and IME, all (most?) of group 3 does (my kid goes to one of those with substantial merit). That’s why in think the “skip over” group is more highly ranked than group 3 (unless there are some of those that don’t offer merit).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Revised

Group 1: Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Penn, Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, MIT, CalTech, Stanford, Duke, Johns Hopkins, Northwestern, U Chicago

Group 2: Rice, Vanderbilt, ND, Georgetown, Carnegie Mellon, Emory, WashU, USC, NYU

Group 3: Wake Forest, BU, BC, Tufts, Northeastern, Lehigh, Rochester, CWRU, Villanova,

Group 4: Brandeis, RPI, Santa Clara, GW, Syracuse, Tulane, Pepperdine, Stevens Inst. Tech, WPI, Marquette, Fordham, SMU, Baylor, Gonzaga, LMU, Drexel, RIT, TCU, USD

Group 1 definitely (would personally swap one out for a group 2- won't name to avoid DCUM food fight).

Group 2 .maybe if I had the money.

State flagship over groups 3 and 4.

Even if you are paying OOS rates so the cost is cheaper at Group 3/4 (the order of which I completely disagree with).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here are the US News Top 100 National Universities (private only). Not talking SLACs. I broke them into three groups but they stay in ranking order, all of group 2 is higher ranked than group 3.

If you could, almost all would pay for Group 1.
I agree that Group 2 is more and more popular, with UMC families and they are often choosing ED to lock in a slot, when they think they won't get into Group 1.
Of Group 3, which would you pay full price? I think this is the group that Jeff Selingo is talking about people preferring a state school, though some of these schools are extremely popular.

Group 1: Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Penn, Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth,MIT, CalTech, Stanford, Duke, Johns Hopkins, Northwestern, U Chicago, Rice

Group 2: Vanderbilt, ND, Georgetown, Carnegie Mellon, Emory, WashU St.Louis, USC, NYU, BC, Tufts, BU

Group 3: Lehigh, Rochester, Wake Forest, CWRU, Northeastern, Brandeis, RPI, Santa Clara, GW, Syracuse, Villanova, Tulane, Pepperdine, Stevens Inst. Tech, WPI, Marquette, Fordham, SMU, Baylor, Gonzaga, LMU, Drexel, RIT, TCU, USD

Except he’s talking about schools that don’t offer merit, and IME, all (most?) of group 3 does (my kid goes to one of those with substantial merit). That’s why in think the “skip over” group is more highly ranked than group 3 (unless there are some of those that don’t offer merit).

I think you are right. My kid got merit from every group 3 school he applied to (and the order of the ranking was different then, but I don't think the schools have changed, lol). Though, he also liked the program at the group 3 school he picked better than the group 2 schools he applied to, so ultimately cost didn't matter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Revised

Group 1: Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Penn, Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, MIT, CalTech, Stanford, Duke, Johns Hopkins, Northwestern, U Chicago

Group 2: Rice, Vanderbilt, ND, Georgetown, Carnegie Mellon, Emory, WashU, USC, NYU

Group 3: Wake Forest, BU, BC, Tufts, Northeastern, Lehigh, Rochester, CWRU, Villanova,

Group 4: Brandeis, RPI, Santa Clara, GW, Syracuse, Tulane, Pepperdine, Stevens Inst. Tech, WPI, Marquette, Fordham, SMU, Baylor, Gonzaga, LMU, Drexel, RIT, TCU, USD

Group 1 definitely (would personally swap one out for a group 2- won't name to avoid DCUM food fight).

Group 2 .maybe if I had the money.

State flagship over groups 3 and 4.

Even if you are paying OOS rates so the cost is cheaper at Group 3/4 (the order of which I completely disagree with)?

meant it as a question for PP.