Respectfully, you don’t get it. YES, this trade folly is hurting America but it is hurrying everybody else so much more. The morality of who tore up what is meaningless. Eventually Trump will ask for something but Carney cannot possibly cut a deal with Trump given the posture Carney has taken. He can try to wait out until the 2028 election, but there are no guarantees there and there will be incalculable damage to the Canadian economy in the meantime. I also don’t believe that free trade is going to be a winner in American politics for a long time. Before Trump even sniffed the levers of power Obama was humiliated internationally by our Congress with the failure of fast tracking authority and the TPA. I really like Canada and Canadians; I have no desire for them to become the 51st state. But this isn’t a relationship of equals and they need us a whole lot more than we need them. The Mexican president has done a much better job trying to thread the needle of asserting her country’s interests without setting down red lines that are impossible for her to cross at a later date. But, then again, she was not facing an election. So I get why Carney has taken his posture. But he’s backed himself into a corner he can’t get out of. |
There can be no negotiation as long as Trump repeats the 51st state garbage every chance he gets and doesn’t respect the sovereignty of Canadian borders. The fact that Trump’s rhetoric swung the election to Carney’s party should give you a clue that the only thing less popular in Canada than incumbents who were about to be kicked out because of the global backlash against inflation, is Trump himself. |
You are still missing the point. Canada and the USA are not equals. Canada has an helluva lot more to lose here. Even if Trump tries to reconcile Carney cannot. Carney explicitly staked out the position that the era of economic integration with the USA is over and will never happen again. I am not defending Trump. Canada has a right to feel aggrieved. But eventually Canada has to reconcile with the USA and trade or face the prospect of becoming something in between the UK and Turkey (e.g., poor and becoming poorer by the day). That’s not a position that Canada can afford to find itself in. Frankly, the reconciliation needs to happen sooner rather than later and Carney cannot possibly reconcile the relationship while Trump is in office. Everything you said is correct, but also irrelevant because this is a relationship of massively unequal parties where one side needs to other whole lot more. This isn’t about justice or righteousness. This is realpolitik, plain and simple. And Carney has no leverage or other options to win after the corner he’s backed himself into. Yes, he can make things difficult on Trump, as he should, but his people are about to suffer more over then next four years than any damage he can inflict on Trump. It is an asymmetrical position and Carney made it harder on himself to survive this fiasco. If you think I’m wrong, tell me how Carney wins here. |
I don’t think you understand the concept of suffering. Their incomes and standards of living may go down but that for many Canadians would be worth it to keep their nation rather than suffering the ignominy of becoming Trump’s 51st state. |
I am a Canadian who voted for the Liberals and I disagree with what you claim Carney promised us. We all understand that Canada must do business with the United States. We understand that our economies are integrated. Therefore, we know Carney must make a deal with the US. There is no other way. However, what Carney articulated, and what every Canadian knows, is that we can no longer trust the US as a trading partner, and therefore we must lessen our dependence on the US. So, yes, we must make a deal, but no, we cannot assume that the deal will stick, and we must act accordingly by diversifying our risk. |
Your key statement is: “Eventually Trump will ask for something”. But so far the administration has not advanced any demand or offer. They levied tariffs for literally no reason. Trump wants tariffs for no better reason than that his hero McKinley raised tariffs in the 1890’s. In this situation Canada has no option other than to live with the new tariffs and seek increased exports to the EU, China, and Japan. |
I mean why would Carney want to put his eggs in one basket that Canada has always done w US? It's obvious he can't trust Trump and this is an ideal time to go find other partners. He's negotiating from a position of strength in that he will try to make do with what he can from Trump but what he can't get he shouldn't have to beg. There is no corner as you suggest he's against - if Trump fails to partner so be it. Canada finds another way. I say this as an American. I think that guy is the bomb, I am so jealous Canada has him as a leader. Nobody should want to be the partner of the US while Trump and GOP are in office. While you need us, diversifying to not needing us is the best thing for our neighbor.
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I'm a Canadian who lived in DC in the 2000s. I'm kind of intrigued that there's a post devoted to Canadian politics....
I think most Canadians feel they're in good hands with Carney. In the interview today, he did a good job navigating Trump. The right amount of feigned deference, use of terminology that could be perceived as flattering or critical "you've been a transformative president with a strong focus on the American worker..." depending on who you are. When Trump said he had very big news, very very big news, Carney replied "I'm sitting on the edge of my seat", which I found hilarious. To me it was obvious that Carney was being tongue in cheek but I'm sure for Trump, he thought Carney was eagerly awaiting to hear the big news. It's clear Trump feels very flattered by Carney and I appreciate the lack of overt a**** kissing. |
As you stated, Canada has no leverage. Everything you say is about how Carney is at Trumps beck and call, well if that's the case, why would you not try to put yourself in a different situation? If you keep banging your head against the wall, why wouldn't you stop and look for another exit? It's because everything you said is right that Canada has NO choice but to move forward and find other ways of survival. So exactly why is he wrong for not kowtowing to Trump? If he has no leverage, he has to find another deal where he does. No point to stick around! |
And for many MAGA voters, their incomes and standard of living may go down, but it would be worth it to reclaim some sense, at least economically, of what used to be in America. But for something tells me you wouldn’t accept that position from MAGA voters… Incidentally, that is exactly what MAGA voters are telling pollsters…. |
A. That’s not how it will play out on the campaign trail. There will be no nuance. B. This doesn’t make sense. In order to make capitalinvestments (for productivity growth = wealth growth) you have to believe any long term agreement sticks. If you can’t believe it will stick (Carney’s position) then the prudent thing is to not rely on the agreement. Hence, he’s backed himself into a corner. |
Trump's posture is violence against non-combatants. There's no negotiation with terrorists. |
Not quite. He's backed himself into China's corner. The US should be scared. |
There are no other partners. If you run trade deficits and are not a reserve currency, you have two limiting options: (a) fiscal discipline (reduced social welfare payments) or (b) an accelerating economic death at the hands of inflation (UK/Turkey). Neither is a great outcome. Thus, no other country in the world is looking to run sustained trade deficits and sustained trade deficits are deeply unpopular politically throughout the world. The USA was the only game in town and now it is gone. He could theoretically thread a needle like Australia and rely on commodity export to China for a trade surplus, but Canadian greens aren’t there for him. Yes, this all plays well on TV and it’s a great release to see him stand up to Trump, but eventually you have to govern and he’s put himself in a tough spot. Not one of strength. As for as not needing us: no, you are just wrong. Nobody is going to ship components to Canada just to assemble them there and then ship finished product back to foreign markets. The logistical+labor costs make no sense. The advantage of was lower labor costs that give access to America’s market. |
Hey dude, did you type this response into an AI response? Or is this JD Vance? Your American self-centered view will be dismantled soon enough. |