Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Biden down 5 to Trump.

https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/23550-poll-trump-leads-biden-by-just-5-points-in-utah

in UTAH.

dmn

just for comparison:

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/utah

President
CANDIDATE PARTY VOTES PCT. E.V.
Donald J. Trump
Republican
515,231 45.1% 6
Hillary Clinton
Democrat
310,676 27.2 —
Evan McMullin
Independent
243,690 21.3 —
Gary Johnson
Libertarian
39,608 3.5 —
Others
34,396 3.0 —
100% reporting (2,214 of 2,214 precincts)

And normal, non-Trump Republicans win Utah by 45 points, not 5.

Is this because of his feud with Romney?

[Anonymous]

So for anyone actually wanting a real picture and not some blue cheerleading echo chamber

from the NYT

Battlestates (Remember the only states that matter)


Michigan + 6 (This looks like it will flip back to Blue)
Arizona + 4 (Can see this flipping but still pretty close)
NH +3
PA +2.1 (Ds need this to win within margin of error)
WI +1.1 (True tossup)
FL -1 (Has been razor thin R but consistent for the past several major election if Trump loses he is done)
TX -2.2 (If Trump loses TX he's done Biden will need to do better among hispanic voters to have any real chance)
IA, OH will be Red
NV, NC tossup

So updating that overly optimistic Map from earlier

R Solid 232
D Solid 242

Remaining toss-ups

PA 20
NC 15
AZ 11
WI 10
NV 6
ME district 1
NE district 1

Easiest path for Ds is PA which takes the total to 262 and then just one more state (take AZ)

Regardless this thing is going to be close, national polls mean nothing, likely voters matter, registered voters don't

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So for anyone actually wanting a real picture and not some blue cheerleading echo chamber

from the NYT

Battlestates (Remember the only states that matter)


Michigan + 6 (This looks like it will flip back to Blue)
Arizona + 4 (Can see this flipping but still pretty close)
NH +3
PA +2.1 (Ds need this to win within margin of error)
WI +1.1 (True tossup)
FL -1 (Has been razor thin R but consistent for the past several major election if Trump loses he is done)
TX -2.2 (If Trump loses TX he's done Biden will need to do better among hispanic voters to have any real chance)
IA, OH will be Red
NV, NC tossup

So updating that overly optimistic Map from earlier

R Solid 232
D Solid 242

Remaining toss-ups

PA 20
NC 15
AZ 11
WI 10
NV 6
ME district 1
NE district 1

Easiest path for Ds is PA which takes the total to 262 and then just one more state (take AZ)

Regardless this thing is going to be close, national polls mean nothing, likely voters matter, registered voters don't

Someone is calling Nevada a tossup?

[Anonymous]

AZ +9 for Biden

https://ohpredictiveinsights.cmail19.com/t/ViewEmail/i/0639AAE631CB7AE22540EF23F30FEDED/5C93F9ED58F90D146A4D3D471B02C3D7

(please please please)

[Anonymous]

PA and NV are hardly looking like tossups.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:PA and NV are hardly looking like tossups.

gosh you people are stupid pulling crap out of your asses just like trump

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/latest-cook-political-report-electoral-college-map?

[Anonymous]

This seems unlikely - but Trump being elected president also seemed unlikely so who knows

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NCResultsApril2020.pdf

North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Trump 47, Biden 48 Biden +1
North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham PPP (D) Cunningham 47, Tillis 40 Cunningham +7

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PA and NV are hardly looking like tossups.

gosh you people are stupid pulling crap out of your asses just like trump

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/latest-cook-political-report-electoral-college-map?

Not the PP to whom you’re responding, but your link shows Pennsylvania as a toss up. (I would argue it’s more likely to be blue, but...)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PA and NV are hardly looking like tossups.

gosh you people are stupid pulling crap out of your asses just like trump

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/latest-cook-political-report-electoral-college-map?

Not the PP to whom you’re responding, but your link shows Pennsylvania as a toss up. (I would argue it’s more likely to be blue, but...)

Nevada hasn’t been a tossup in decades.

[Anonymous]

NV was 47-45 Clinton last time. That's a tossup especially with Biden being weak with Hispanics.

[Anonymous]

Trump on the national polls (meaningless, I know)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:NV was 47-45 Clinton last time. That's a tossup especially with Biden being weak with Hispanics.

Exacto

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NV was 47-45 Clinton last time. That's a tossup especially with Biden being weak with Hispanics.

Exacto

RCP average has Biden +4. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_biden-6867.html

[Anonymous]

I was going to post the oann nc poll but