2020 Senate Map

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Three Senate primaries to watch on Super Tuesday: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/482669-three-senate-primaries-to-watch-on-super-tuesday?amp=1&_recirculation=1

Prediction:
Jones will lose to the GOP nominee, whoever it is. It will not be Roy Moore. Alabama flips to red. For sure.
Cornyn will win in Texas. Much more popular than Cruz was. Stays red.
North Carolina????

So, of these three, it will be status quo --2 GOP 1 Dem or advantage GOP

I was hopeful for a Moore rematch but alas.

[Anonymous]

The Senate will be 51-49, in favor of Republicans, in 2021.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The Senate will be 51-49, in favor of Republicans, in 2021.

That saved everyone a lot of time and money. Thanks.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The Senate will be 51-49, in favor of Republicans, in 2021.

Unless Bernie or Warren lead the Dem ticket.

Then it's 55-45 or worse.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Senate will be 51-49, in favor of Republicans, in 2021.

Unless Bernie or Warren lead the Dem ticket.

Then it's 55-45 or worse.

Yep. The dems have an opportunity with Maine, AZ, NC, SC even MT or KY - with the right candidate, but Bernie will kill any hope.

[Anonymous]

North Carolina:
Likely Democratic nominee Cal Cunningham: 48%
GOP Incumbent Thom Tillis: 43%
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1146021?__twitter_impression=true

[Anonymous]

My predictions—
Doug Jones loses regardless of who the GOP nominee is. With Trump (who is VERY popular in AL) at the top of the ballot, there is really no question.

McSally loses in AZ — Mark Kelly is a fantastic candidate and has a war chest.

Susan Collins loses in Maine. She’s unpopular, Gideon is good.

Both GA seats go Republican, although it will be close. I think GA is still just not ready to flip at this point — very possible in 2022 or 2024 if Dems keep investing there, though.

Cory Gardner loses in CO. CO has just gotten SO blue in the past 6 years I don’t see how he wins, especially considering he’s unpopular and Hickenlooper is well-liked.

Not sure about NC??? I think it depends who the Dem presidential is. If it’s Biden, Dems have a shot. Bernie? Forget about it.

Cornyn wins. The combination of him being much more liked than Ted Cruz and the Dems not having a superstar candidate like Beto like they did in ‘18 makes this one a pretty easy guess for me.

In KS, if Kobach gets the nom and Dems put someone good up I can *maybe* see it flipping, but otherwise no way.

McConnell- no way is he losing. I know people are excited about Amy McGrath but she’s just not a good candidate, especially up against the McConnell warchest.

Joni Ernst wins. Iowa has all but shifted completely red, IMO, and Ernst doesn’t really have any huge negatives that would cause people to mobilize against her.

The rest have no chance of flipping, IMO.

Thoughts?

[Anonymous]

^^^
Good analysis BUT three out of Iowa’s four House seats flipped red to blue last year. And the D Senate candidate in Kansas is FANTASTIC.

[Anonymous]

Kelly up by 6.7 over McSally in Arizona
https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/elviadiaz/2020/02/19/kelly-leads-martha-mcsally-despite-trump-backing/4809347002/#click=https://t.co/IqAc8ElJrT

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My predictions—
Doug Jones loses regardless of who the GOP nominee is. With Trump (who is VERY popular in AL) at the top of the ballot, there is really no question.

McSally loses in AZ — Mark Kelly is a fantastic candidate and has a war chest.

Susan Collins loses in Maine. She’s unpopular, Gideon is good.

Both GA seats go Republican, although it will be close. I think GA is still just not ready to flip at this point — very possible in 2022 or 2024 if Dems keep investing there, though.

Cory Gardner loses in CO. CO has just gotten SO blue in the past 6 years I don’t see how he wins, especially considering he’s unpopular and Hickenlooper is well-liked.

Not sure about NC??? I think it depends who the Dem presidential is. If it’s Biden, Dems have a shot. Bernie? Forget about it.

Cornyn wins. The combination of him being much more liked than Ted Cruz and the Dems not having a superstar candidate like Beto like they did in ‘18 makes this one a pretty easy guess for me.

In KS, if Kobach gets the nom and Dems put someone good up I can *maybe* see it flipping, but otherwise no way.

McConnell- no way is he losing. I know people are excited about Amy McGrath but she’s just not a good candidate, especially up against the McConnell warchest.

Joni Ernst wins. Iowa has all but shifted completely red, IMO, and Ernst doesn’t really have any huge negatives that would cause people to mobilize against her.

The rest have no chance of flipping, IMO.

Thoughts?

I think if it’s a Biden/exciting female VP candidate ticket, Tillis is in real jeopardy and Ernst might even be too. With Bernie at the top, no way.

[Anonymous]

NC is looking like a strong flip candidate.

[Anonymous]

Senate primaries today - Sessions vs. Moore and some others in Alabama, Markey vs. Kennedy in Mass plus races to determine who goes up against R incumbents in NC, TX and ME.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/politics/down-ballot-preview-what-to-watch/index.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:NC is looking like a strong flip candidate.

It depend on who is at the top of the ticket. D

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NC is looking like a strong flip candidate.

It depend on who is at the top of the ticket. D

Biden and a black woman running mate = Cal Cunningham in, Thom Tillis out.