2020 Senate Map

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Dems were able to pick up seats in deep red states like Kansas and Oklahoma. It’s all about picking the right candidate. Hopefully there are people vetting candidates now.

Congressional districts only represent a portion of a state, whereas Senators are statewide races so just because a congressional district may have elected a Dem does not really mean a whole lot for the state as a whole. Kind of like how California has red representatives, but it’s not like they’re going to elect a Republican senator.

And an open seat to replace a deeply unpopular Governor is a VERYdifferent situation than trying to knock off a 24 year incumbent with a (mostly) good reputation.

A bunch of red Governors lost. Last time I checked, those were statewide seats.

Republican incumbents were defeated in Illinois and Wisconsin. I don't really consider that "a bunch." And those states are ...slightly different than Kansas and Oklahoma. (Yes, I know a Dem won in Kansas, but it was an open seat which is far, far easier to do than knock off an incumbent.)

[Anonymous]

In Kansas, the vote for Governor-elect Laura Kelly was also a vote against Kobach. Even by Kansas standards, Kobach is extreme. He won the Republican Primary against Republican Governor Jeff Colyer by only 350-ish votes. Had Colyer won the primary, he might have won the General.

(As an aside, current KS Governor Jeff Colyer is nearly as crazy as Kobach, but he hides it well. Colyer stepped in after Trump gave Brownback an exit strategy, and Colyer may be tapped to go to Washington after his term ends in January. Crazy and inept is apparently rewarded with appointments in the Trump administration.)

Laura Kelly will make an outstanding Governor of Kansas if given a chance by the KS Legislature, which unfortunately moved much farther right in the November election. I don’t see Kansas electing a Democrat to replace Roberts, though God knows the man is the worst senator for the state. He doesn’t even live in Kansas anymore, which is an open secret.

[Anonymous]

Gardner (CO) and Collins (ME) are toast. Collins may not even run for re-election at this point. Tillis (NC) and Ernst (IA) are decent pickup opportunities with the right candidates, so hopefully D’s run someone good there.

On the other hand, R’s will of course be gunning for Jones’ seat in AL, and will probably run hard in MI as well (state went for Trump 2016).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Gardner (CO) and Collins (ME) are toast. Collins may not even run for re-election at this point. Tillis (NC) and Ernst (IA) are decent pickup opportunities with the right candidates, so hopefully D’s run someone good there.

On the other hand, R’s will of course be gunning for Jones’ seat in AL, and will probably run hard in MI as well (state went for Trump 2016).

And totally repudiated Trump in 2018.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Gardner (CO) and Collins (ME) are toast. Collins may not even run for re-election at this point. Tillis (NC) and Ernst (IA) are decent pickup opportunities with the right candidates, so hopefully D’s run someone good there.

On the other hand, R’s will of course be gunning for Jones’ seat in AL, and will probably run hard in MI as well (state went for Trump 2016).

And totally repudiated Trump in 2018.

But with Trump being on the ballot again in 2020, R’s are probably hoping his voters turn out and boost the downticket R’s as well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Gardner (CO) and Collins (ME) are toast. Collins may not even run for re-election at this point. Tillis (NC) and Ernst (IA) are decent pickup opportunities with the right candidates, so hopefully D’s run someone good there.

On the other hand, R’s will of course be gunning for Jones’ seat in AL, and will probably run hard in MI as well (state went for Trump 2016).

And totally repudiated Trump in 2018.

But with Trump being on the ballot again in 2020, R’s are probably hoping his voters turn out and boost the downticket R’s as well.

Because it's a presidential year, Dems voters are going to blow it out of the water.

[Anonymous]

https://www.vox.com/2018/11/8/18072464/senate-midterm-election-results-democrats-disadvantage

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Gardner (CO) and Collins (ME) are toast. Collins may not even run for re-election at this point. Tillis (NC) and Ernst (IA) are decent pickup opportunities with the right candidates, so hopefully D’s run someone good there.

On the other hand, R’s will of course be gunning for Jones’ seat in AL, and will probably run hard in MI as well (state went for Trump 2016).

And totally repudiated Trump in 2018.

But with Trump being on the ballot again in 2020, R’s are probably hoping his voters turn out and boost the downticket R’s as well.

Because it's a presidential year, Dems voters are going to blow it out of the water.

I hope you’re right!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Colorado - Dems should win
Maine - Collins is toast
Iowa - trump won by only 5 last time, and now he is 15 underwater
NC - same as Iowa, worse even for Rs
Arizona - how’s that working for Rs this year?
Georgia - this election is shaky even with Kemp’s thumb on the scale
Texas - return of Beto?
Louisiana - Mitch Landrieu is a force
Montana - didn’t Tester just win there?
Kentucky - Dems will throw $100 million into defeating McConnell
Kansas - didn’t Kobach just lose there?
Seems like a pretty solid map to me. Can’t imagine republicans feel safe in any of those states.

You should take a political science class.

Well, things have changed since your last political science class. There is a realignment underway.

[Anonymous]

Assuming Simena wins and Nelson loses, we trade CO and AL, and gotta win ME, IA, NC and the presidency.

I think if we kept NH and MI in the hellscape election year that was 2014, we will be okay there in 2020.

And we should run good candidates in AZ, MT (isn’t Bullock term-limited?), and Georgia.

Doesn’t look good, though tbh I think a lot depends on the economy. A president whose approvals are in the low 40s in a booming economy will tank to the 20s with a recession.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Colorado - Dems should win
Maine - Collins is toast
Iowa - trump won by only 5 last time, and now he is 15 underwater
NC - same as Iowa, worse even for Rs
Arizona - how’s that working for Rs this year?
Georgia - this election is shaky even with Kemp’s thumb on the scale
Texas - return of Beto?
Louisiana - Mitch Landrieu is a force
Montana - didn’t Tester just win there?
Kentucky - Dems will throw $100 million into defeating McConnell
Kansas - didn’t Kobach just lose there?

Seems like a pretty solid map to me. Can’t imagine republicans feel safe in any of those states.

Your analysis is deeply dumb.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://www.vox.com/2018/11/8/18072464/senate-midterm-election-results-democrats-disadvantage

Right, but what does he know compared to some emotional hacks posting here.

[Anonymous]

Please! Give us at least a month's hiatis from damn politics! Also, a recession is likely in 2020.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Please! Give us at least a month's hiatis from damn politics! Also, a recession is likely in 2020.

This is the politics forum. Go to entertainment and talk about Kate Middleton if you don’t like it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Please! Give us at least a month's hiatis from damn politics! Also, a recession is likely in 2020.

I used to feel that way too. I just got a memory come up on FB of me posting something like “give us a break” about Marco Rubio visiting Iowa the week after the 2012 election. But I think all of the successes on Tuesday night were the results of mobilizing immediately after the election and getting so many people involved right after the inauguration. Onward!