Harris beating Trump in Iowa

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The better question is how this poll squares with the rise in GOP registrations in Iowa and her own previous polling just a couple months ago that didn’t match this surge.

between a "couple of months ago" and now, an abortion ban was implemented.

That was this summer. She had Biden under Trump in June, and Kamala also underperformed in her September poll.

Harris over performed the September poll. She was down 4 in a state trump won by 8 in 2020. Upward trajectory.

Underperformed when compared to this outlier poll. Nate Silver is skeptical this is an authentic rise in such a short period time with the same pollster.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The better question is how this poll squares with the rise in GOP registrations in Iowa and her own previous polling just a couple months ago that didn’t match this surge.

between a "couple of months ago" and now, an abortion ban was implemented.

Maga’s refusal to grasp this is like in a movie where the antagonist has murdered a beloved main character and has some sort of mental block about what they’ve done. Maga can keep pretending that their abortion bans aren’t a big deal, that all it means is that irresponsible 20 somethings won’t be able to go out with their fellow lady friend sluts and get abortions on a Friday night, but they’re only fooling themselves.

So well said!

Again, if this issue were that important we would be seeing the Harris-movement data in more than just one outlier poll out of Iowa. The same day as this, another had Trump up ten. A huge anti SCOTUS surge just isn’t appearing.

The other poll is from a blatant herder. The other pollsters are massaging their data because they don't trust it. Selzer is publishing it and she doesn't manipulate her data.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The better question is how this poll squares with the rise in GOP registrations in Iowa and her own previous polling just a couple months ago that didn’t match this surge.

between a "couple of months ago" and now, an abortion ban was implemented.

Maga’s refusal to grasp this is like in a movie where the antagonist has murdered a beloved main character and has some sort of mental block about what they’ve done. Maga can keep pretending that their abortion bans aren’t a big deal, that all it means is that irresponsible 20 somethings won’t be able to go out with their fellow lady friend sluts and get abortions on a Friday night, but they’re only fooling themselves.

This. Women vote to improve and protect the community.

…and men think that improving and protecting a community is “socialism.”

Seriously, men supporting Trump have their heads so far up their own butt. They truly believe they are an island.

Sigh.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The better question is how this poll squares with the rise in GOP registrations in Iowa and her own previous polling just a couple months ago that didn’t match this surge.

between a "couple of months ago" and now, an abortion ban was implemented.

Maga’s refusal to grasp this is like in a movie where the antagonist has murdered a beloved main character and has some sort of mental block about what they’ve done. Maga can keep pretending that their abortion bans aren’t a big deal, that all it means is that irresponsible 20 somethings won’t be able to go out with their fellow lady friend sluts and get abortions on a Friday night, but they’re only fooling themselves.

This. Women vote to improve and protect the community.

A lot of post menopausal women are pro life or happy with this decided at the state level. This random twitter lady doesn’t speak for all women.

I don’t know a single post-menopausal woman who would want the state deciding this if it was their daughter who was raped and pregnant— I know plenty of Catholics and I think some of them might even carry that baby but to pretend they know the answer for everyone? No

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:A democrat just told me Harris is going to win Florida and Iowa. Not sure where this surge is coming from but I don’t buy it.

If Harris wins Florida that will be very funny. But what with desantis, the abortion ballot, elderly people who don’t want to lose social security and Medicare, and now the angry Puerto Rico constituency, it’s becoming less unlikely.

I would love to see Florida go blue!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The better question is how this poll squares with the rise in GOP registrations in Iowa and her own previous polling just a couple months ago that didn’t match this surge.

between a "couple of months ago" and now, an abortion ban was implemented.

Maga’s refusal to grasp this is like in a movie where the antagonist has murdered a beloved main character and has some sort of mental block about what they’ve done. Maga can keep pretending that their abortion bans aren’t a big deal, that all it means is that irresponsible 20 somethings won’t be able to go out with their fellow lady friend sluts and get abortions on a Friday night, but they’re only fooling themselves.

Huge mistake. A lot of these women are old enough to have seen all of it. The difficult pregnancies, the infertility, the rapes, friends and family that have had an abortion, and on and on.

I don't think anyone knows better than a woman who's experienced it all, or knows a lot of people that have experienced it all, the critical importance of making your own reproductive decisions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The better question is how this poll squares with the rise in GOP registrations in Iowa and her own previous polling just a couple months ago that didn’t match this surge.

between a "couple of months ago" and now, an abortion ban was implemented.

That was this summer. She had Biden under Trump in June, and Kamala also underperformed in her September poll.

Harris over performed the September poll. She was down 4 in a state trump won by 8 in 2020. Upward trajectory.

Underperformed when compared to this outlier poll. Nate Silver is skeptical this is an authentic rise in such a short period time with the same pollster.

Nate Silver works for Peter Theil. He is no longer an independent analyst. Citing him, you may as well cite JD Vance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The better question is how this poll squares with the rise in GOP registrations in Iowa and her own previous polling just a couple months ago that didn’t match this surge.

between a "couple of months ago" and now, an abortion ban was implemented.

Maga’s refusal to grasp this is like in a movie where the antagonist has murdered a beloved main character and has some sort of mental block about what they’ve done. Maga can keep pretending that their abortion bans aren’t a big deal, that all it means is that irresponsible 20 somethings won’t be able to go out with their fellow lady friend sluts and get abortions on a Friday night, but they’re only fooling themselves.

This. Women vote to improve and protect the community.

A lot of post menopausal women are pro life or happy with this decided at the state level. This random twitter lady doesn’t speak for all women.

I don’t know a single post-menopausal woman who would want the state deciding this if it was their daughter who was raped and pregnant— I know plenty of Catholics and I think some of them might even carry that baby but to pretend they know the answer for everyone? No

Almost all states have rape exceptions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The better question is how this poll squares with the rise in GOP registrations in Iowa and her own previous polling just a couple months ago that didn’t match this surge.

between a "couple of months ago" and now, an abortion ban was implemented.

Maga’s refusal to grasp this is like in a movie where the antagonist has murdered a beloved main character and has some sort of mental block about what they’ve done. Maga can keep pretending that their abortion bans aren’t a big deal, that all it means is that irresponsible 20 somethings won’t be able to go out with their fellow lady friend sluts and get abortions on a Friday night, but they’re only fooling themselves.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The better question is how this poll squares with the rise in GOP registrations in Iowa and her own previous polling just a couple months ago that didn’t match this surge.

between a "couple of months ago" and now, an abortion ban was implemented.

Maga’s refusal to grasp this is like in a movie where the antagonist has murdered a beloved main character and has some sort of mental block about what they’ve done. Maga can keep pretending that their abortion bans aren’t a big deal, that all it means is that irresponsible 20 somethings won’t be able to go out with their fellow lady friend sluts and get abortions on a Friday night, but they’re only fooling themselves.

This. Women vote to improve and protect the community.

A lot of post menopausal women are pro life or happy with this decided at the state level. This random twitter lady doesn’t speak for all women.

You know what does? State referendums.

Seven of them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A note about Selzer from someone in the business:

Their approach is very old school and based on traditional sampling methods using registered voter rolls and a very intimate familiarity with Iowa. Selzer's polls tend to be very expensive because they are time and labor intensive. And unlike a lot of the other major pollsters, they use a smaller number or survey interviewers which allows tighter control of training and quality assurance. A lot of polling outfits maintain call centers (often staffed by college students -- the cheap labor of students is why so many pollsters are associated with colleges) and will staff way up during election season but there is often high turnover and their interviewers are often inexperienced. Plus they are often polling nationally as well as in multiple states and thus don't have the focus of Selzer's polling (Selzer may sometimes do national polling, which is easier, but they don't poll in any other state than Iowa) and it's harder to control quality.

It is obviously possible that the Selzer poll is an outlier result. In fact if I were making a prediction based on polling in Iowa I would assume Trump would win by 2-3 points and that this Selzer poll represents some late-breaking momentum for Harris but not a total flip of a red state. However even that conservative interpretation of these results is very bad news for Trump. I think it's very hard to dismiss this poll out of hand and just point to the Emerson poll giving him a 10 point lead. Selzer's poll is more transparent (she releases all her data and is very transparent about sampling methodology in a way Emerson is not) and Selzer's familiarity with Iowa (she's been running polls in the state for nearly 40 years) is much better. Even if you assume the "real" result is somewhere in the middle and Trump wins Iowa but by a smaller margin than expected, that's a major shift.

Thank you for this informed answer.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The better question is how this poll squares with the rise in GOP registrations in Iowa and her own previous polling just a couple months ago that didn’t match this surge.

between a "couple of months ago" and now, an abortion ban was implemented.

Maga’s refusal to grasp this is like in a movie where the antagonist has murdered a beloved main character and has some sort of mental block about what they’ve done. Maga can keep pretending that their abortion bans aren’t a big deal, that all it means is that irresponsible 20 somethings won’t be able to go out with their fellow lady friend sluts and get abortions on a Friday night, but they’re only fooling themselves.

This. Women vote to improve and protect the community.

A lot of post menopausal women are pro life or happy with this decided at the state level. This random twitter lady doesn’t speak for all women.

I don’t know a single post-menopausal woman who would want the state deciding this if it was their daughter who was raped and pregnant— I know plenty of Catholics and I think some of them might even carry that baby but to pretend they know the answer for everyone? No

Almost all states have rape exceptions.

"almost" isn't a selling point here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The better question is how this poll squares with the rise in GOP registrations in Iowa and her own previous polling just a couple months ago that didn’t match this surge.

between a "couple of months ago" and now, an abortion ban was implemented.

Maga’s refusal to grasp this is like in a movie where the antagonist has murdered a beloved main character and has some sort of mental block about what they’ve done. Maga can keep pretending that their abortion bans aren’t a big deal, that all it means is that irresponsible 20 somethings won’t be able to go out with their fellow lady friend sluts and get abortions on a Friday night, but they’re only fooling themselves.

This. Women vote to improve and protect the community.

A lot of post menopausal women are pro life or happy with this decided at the state level. This random twitter lady doesn’t speak for all women.

I don’t know a single post-menopausal woman who would want the state deciding this if it was their daughter who was raped and pregnant— I know plenty of Catholics and I think some of them might even carry that baby but to pretend they know the answer for everyone? No

Almost all states have rape exceptions.

"almost" isn't a selling point here.

The point is that some random twitter person isn’t the voice for post menopausal women and certainly not women in states she doesn’t reside in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The better question is how this poll squares with the rise in GOP registrations in Iowa and her own previous polling just a couple months ago that didn’t match this surge.

between a "couple of months ago" and now, an abortion ban was implemented.

Maga’s refusal to grasp this is like in a movie where the antagonist has murdered a beloved main character and has some sort of mental block about what they’ve done. Maga can keep pretending that their abortion bans aren’t a big deal, that all it means is that irresponsible 20 somethings won’t be able to go out with their fellow lady friend sluts and get abortions on a Friday night, but they’re only fooling themselves.

Huge mistake. A lot of these women are old enough to have seen all of it. The difficult pregnancies, the infertility, the rapes, friends and family that have had an abortion, and on and on.

I don't think anyone knows better than a woman who's experienced it all, or knows a lot of people that have experienced it all, the critical importance of making your own reproductive decisions.

My 78 yo mother is horrified that her granddaughter will less rights to decide what to do with her body than she did. I am certain she is not the only one look at it through this lens.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The better question is how this poll squares with the rise in GOP registrations in Iowa and her own previous polling just a couple months ago that didn’t match this surge.

between a "couple of months ago" and now, an abortion ban was implemented.

Maga’s refusal to grasp this is like in a movie where the antagonist has murdered a beloved main character and has some sort of mental block about what they’ve done. Maga can keep pretending that their abortion bans aren’t a big deal, that all it means is that irresponsible 20 somethings won’t be able to go out with their fellow lady friend sluts and get abortions on a Friday night, but they’re only fooling themselves.

This. Women vote to improve and protect the community.

A lot of post menopausal women are pro life or happy with this decided at the state level. This random twitter lady doesn’t speak for all women.

I don’t know a single post-menopausal woman who would want the state deciding this if it was their daughter who was raped and pregnant— I know plenty of Catholics and I think some of them might even carry that baby but to pretend they know the answer for everyone? No

Almost all states have rape exceptions.

Jfc, as if that makes it a good thing.