Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:My analysis - there actually was a red wave but it failed to account for population shifts.
In 2020 Dems won house popular vote 50.8-47.7. D+3 electorate.
Final tallies aren't in yet but currently R's are winning popular House vote 52.3-45.7 per CNN. R+6 electorate- is the 10 pt swing many have been projecting.
HOWEVER.. Post covid, R's have been flocking to the major "red" states like TX and FL, leading to over performance in those areas (ie DeSantis by 20 when he was expecting to win by 10) but left the previous state more "purple", allowing Dems to win in those areas.
Absolutely agree. COVID deaths + population shifts + retirements have made PA, MI, and WI more blue.
Conservatives I know are concentrating themselves in a handful of states - ID, MT, FL, and TX. We have family friends who sold their homes in ÇA and AZ to move to ID full time because AZ was “getting too liberal!” If you are conservative and have some money, you moved during COVID to the DeSantis theme park of Florida.
It will take time, but the population shifts are real. You couldn’t rent a UHaul for months.