Harris beating Trump in Iowa

[Anonymous]

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More likely the survey results leaked. Survey was complete on the 31st. Harris isn't doing "internal polling" in Iowa folks!

[Anonymous]

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The Harris campaign has been on the ball. So interesting watching a campaign managed by professionals rather than tending to someone’s ego.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:This might not translate to MI/WI/PA :

https://x.com/Redistrict/status/1853108021221904510

There are always going to be outlier polls even when they are well designed. Hers is one of them.

Her "outliers" have been right in the past.

Her outlier poll has a margin of error that still allows for Trump beating Harris in Iowa by more than 3 points.

Which would be a horrible result for Trump.

A win is a win. It doesn’t matter how much by.

+1 every time

Do you people not understand what a close result in Iowa would likely mean about the electorate in the 7 swing states?

I’ll let JMart explain it to them.

That’s even starker than leading Iowa by 3.

[Anonymous]

There’s more, here’s a thread reader for non-Twitter people
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1852921202567688416.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

This isn't about Harris winning Iowa. It's what it says about non-college older white women. They live in many states and if they are voting for Harris 2 -1 then Donny is in trouble, bigly.

This. I grew up in a red state. My mom is voting Democrat for the first time ever after seeing what I went through with IVF, an abortion and in general having grandkids now vs 4 years ago. Our husbands don’t know we’re voting for Mamala. The grannies in the south are sick of DJT!

[Anonymous]

How does the poll square with this?

[Anonymous]

OSZ? Are you serious?

[Anonymous]

The better question is how this poll squares with the rise in GOP registrations in Iowa and her own previous polling just a couple months ago that didn’t match this surge.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How does the poll square with this?

Trump was actively discouraging early and mail voting in 2020; he has been actively encouraging it this year.

Meanwhile, there was a pandemic in 2020, no vaccines available, and dems were far, far less likely to go to the polls on Election Day, when they would encounter crowds. That’s not an issue this year.

When people vote doesn’t necessarily matter, as is evident by the very data you post. Just look: in 2020, dems voted early but Trump won the state.

We will see what happens Tuesday!

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

But poll results often give the answer sought. It depends on how a question is worded.

There have been numerous articles based on lengthy interviews with independents and again and again J6 is a problem. I realize that you may have normalized it, but most of America remains deeply shocked at the fact that MAGA broke into the Capitol, defecated on the floors and were intent on attacking the Speaker and hanging the Vice President.

No one except for the left cares about j6

PP here. Nope. I’m a hard ass national security focused former republican. I believe in the greatness of the United States. Trump is a traitor and should be punished accordingly. His actions have deeply damaged our global standing. You bet I’m enraged about J6.

Not caring about J6 is equivalent to not caring about democracy. It should be the ONLY focus of this election.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The better question is how this poll squares with the rise in GOP registrations in Iowa and her own previous polling just a couple months ago that didn’t match this surge.

Her own previous polling was Trump plus 4 which is still really bad for Trump. Her polling shows a consistent movement over time away from Trump to Harris. She recognizes public opinion changes and that is why she trusts her polls instead of trying to massage the results like everyone else does.

By the way, is it really that surprising to you that many conservatives don't want to vote for a felon who:

- incited insurrection and defends the people who defecated in the Capitol
- Bragged about grabbing pussy
- In his rallies, fellates the microphone
- lacks the support of his own staff from his first term?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How does the poll square with this?

How does a MAGA clown square with Ann Selzer? That’s your question?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The better question is how this poll squares with the rise in GOP registrations in Iowa and her own previous polling just a couple months ago that didn’t match this surge.

Her own previous polling was Trump plus 4 which is still really bad for Trump. Her polling shows a consistent movement over time away from Trump to Harris. She recognizes public opinion changes and that is why she trusts her polls instead of trying to massage the results like everyone else does.

By the way, is it really that surprising to you that many conservatives don't want to vote for a felon who:

- incited insurrection and defends the people who defecated in the Capitol
- Bragged about grabbing pussy
- In his rallies, fellates the microphone
- lacks the support of his own staff from his first term?

3 of my uncles are sitting out this election. They’ve never voted for a Democrat but they’re fed up with Trump. They live in the DMV so it won’t matter, but still.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How does the poll square with this?

A lot of those red voters are voting for Harris, that is the whole point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The better question is how this poll squares with the rise in GOP registrations in Iowa and her own previous polling just a couple months ago that didn’t match this surge.

between a "couple of months ago" and now, an abortion ban was implemented.