Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Putin and Prigozhin are two scorpions in a bottle now. And the long knives are out within the Russian elite (business and security). Putin has been losing slowly since February 25, 2023. Now he’s losing more quickly.

Unfortunately, he’s taking too many down with him. And I’m not hopeful that whoever comes after Putin will be better for Russia. But whoever it is will declare victory in Ukraine and leave. It’s not a uniting issue.

The dam is about to burst so to speak. Just like with Kharkiv, slow at first...then a rout. Ukraine is close to a breakthrough that's going to lead to the same in the south. And if Crimea is truly threatened, Putin is going to have a real tough time of it.

The funny thing is, Ukrainians will gladly bomb “their” Crimea into oblivion if given the chance. They want it so that they don’t care if there’s no one left standing. Reminds me of the Russians in Bakhmut and Mariupol. Which is to say that they are all the same post Soviet blood thirsty idiots. None of them is progressive and humane.

Oh dear, someone's confused. It's been Putin's artillery-happy idiots who have been leveling villages, schools, hospitals and infrastructure. Stop #bothsides-ing this when facts and reality don't support you.

It's funny how you are supporting a dictatorship like a Ukraine. A corrupt regime that didn't hesitate to bomb its own people in the donbass region. I don't like the Russians but Ukrainians are worst. Their fight is none of our business. Our tax dollars should not be used to fight that stupid war. We are invaded at the border in our own country, and instead of fighting that invasion, we are sending weapons and money to fight an invasion in a corrupt country. This has to stop.

It’s really only with Republican pps like this that I am left almost speechless. So much stupidity concentrated in such a short post.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Putin and Prigozhin are two scorpions in a bottle now. And the long knives are out within the Russian elite (business and security). Putin has been losing slowly since February 25, 2023. Now he’s losing more quickly.

Unfortunately, he’s taking too many down with him. And I’m not hopeful that whoever comes after Putin will be better for Russia. But whoever it is will declare victory in Ukraine and leave. It’s not a uniting issue.

The dam is about to burst so to speak. Just like with Kharkiv, slow at first...then a rout. Ukraine is close to a breakthrough that's going to lead to the same in the south. And if Crimea is truly threatened, Putin is going to have a real tough time of it.

The funny thing is, Ukrainians will gladly bomb “their” Crimea into oblivion if given the chance. They want it so that they don’t care if there’s no one left standing. Reminds me of the Russians in Bakhmut and Mariupol. Which is to say that they are all the same post Soviet blood thirsty idiots. None of them is progressive and humane.

Oh dear, someone's confused. It's been Putin's artillery-happy idiots who have been leveling villages, schools, hospitals and infrastructure. Stop #bothsides-ing this when facts and reality don't support you.

It's funny how you are supporting a dictatorship like a Ukraine. A corrupt regime that didn't hesitate to bomb its own people in the donbass region. I don't like the Russians but Ukrainians are worst. Their fight is none of our business. Our tax dollars should not be used to fight that stupid war. We are invaded at the border in our own country, and instead of fighting that invasion, we are sending weapons and money to fight an invasion in a corrupt country. This has to stop.

It’s really only with Republican pps like this that I am left almost speechless. So much stupidity concentrated in such a short post.

An American wouldn't assume that Ukraine is a dictatorship. Ukraine's last election was pre-war on 31 March 2019. It's a bit silly to assume Ukraine would hold an election in the middle of an invasion, so this is Russian propaganda talking point.

The statement "a corrupt regime that didn't hesitate to bomb its own people in donbass region" are two pieces of Russian propaganda stitched together.

The corruption theme was how Russia would undermine Poroshenko's regime.

"Bomb it's own people in donbass" was also Russian propaganda intended to distract attention from Russian war crimes, especially after Russia had destroyed Bakhmut using incendiary weapons.

Third is the talking point to drive a wedge between Democrats and Republicans on the border issue.

I don't think this is a Republican, or even an American. It's a poser. This one is better than some of the others, who probably were benched.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The sweetest irony of all is that the only thing these obnoxious pro-Russia trolls have ever accomplished here on DCUM is to even further annoy and alienate Americans and turn them against Russia even harder.

+1

That seems really low….I would think at least over 85% across the board.

The ones that do not support Ukraine are probably Russians that had anchor babies here or are big porn fans.

I think for favorable ratings ISIS is more likable than russians and Russia now.

Cringe, PP. All the Russians I know in the DC area are 100% against Putin's war, are deeply ashamed of their country's war crimes, and the ensuing suffering on both sides. The only ones that can't talk about it work in the Embassy, and the reason they can't talk about it is that they probably feel terrible too!

The people who are anti-Ukraine are the low-information right-wing Americans. There aren't many in our area (if you're right-wing here, you're definitely informed and proud... and pro-Ukraine), and as the poll shows, not many in general.

It is not mutually exclusive- you can be a Russian anchor baby mom or naturalized citizen or addicted to porn; and be a wacko right wing trump lover.

Anyone who does not support Ukraine has some Russian loyalties in some way.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The sweetest irony of all is that the only thing these obnoxious pro-Russia trolls have ever accomplished here on DCUM is to even further annoy and alienate Americans and turn them against Russia even harder.

+1

That seems really low….I would think at least over 85% across the board.

The ones that do not support Ukraine are probably Russians that had anchor babies here or are big porn fans.

I think for favorable ratings ISIS is more likable than russians and Russia now.

In a popularity contest Russians would lose to cancer as “things that are good for this planet”.

Agree ISIS and Russian activities in Ukraine are equals; but obviously Russia is the most vile right now as they dominate the news cycle .

In 6 months maybe prince Harry is the new bad guy.

Russia earned its current Nazi-Esque title; but in a few years I am sure we will have a new global bad guy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The sweetest irony of all is that the only thing these obnoxious pro-Russia trolls have ever accomplished here on DCUM is to even further annoy and alienate Americans and turn them against Russia even harder.

+1

That seems really low….I would think at least over 85% across the board.

The ones that do not support Ukraine are probably Russians that had anchor babies here or are big porn fans.

I think for favorable ratings ISIS is more likable than russians and Russia now.

In a popularity contest Russians would lose to cancer as “things that are good for this planet”.

Agree ISIS and Russian activities in Ukraine are equals; but obviously Russia is the most vile right now as they dominate the news cycle .

In 6 months maybe prince Harry is the new bad guy.

Russia earned its current Nazi-Esque title; but in a few years I am sure we will have a new global bad guy.

Seems likely. Russia used up its big shot in its Ukraine failure. They're not going to be relevant on the global stage (economically, politically, militarily) in a few years.

[Anonymous]

https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

At the Minsk Agreements Putin once said: “Нравится, не нравится — терпи, моя красавица.” Надо исполнять. По-другому не получится (“Like it or not — put up with it, my beauty.” You have to follow the terms. There’s no other way”).
The Moscow Times

Tactically, this is what Putin seems to believe and what most Russians see on a day-to-day basis. Putin's thinking is that if he loses militarily in Ukraine, that he's finished politically. He believes that once he "wins" in Ukraine, that all will be forgiven and Russia will be all better. He also believes that if those loyal to him are gathered around his island, they will be his buffer to keep everyone else at bay. His chips seem to be all-in on this theory.

On one hand, Russia has switched mostly to bitcoin which helps to stabilize their economic system and offset disruptions, but the question is still where income will come from or is the Russian Government just printing as many Rubles as it needs on any given day (leading to hyperinflation-based collapse of the Ruble and Russian economy). Generally there are two primary methods to maintain the Russian Rouble; by maintaining mostly internal circulation (ex. the Stalinist State system) or externally (via imports / exports) or some combination of the two. As an exporter, Russian economic expenditures are offset selling oil to obtain income from other countries. As an importer, Russian imports are still heavily dependent upon (Black Sea) shipping and rail. If Ukraine can conduct military action against these two transportation methods (quite possible), Russia's already rising inflation could go much further.

But how will the Russian rouble fare internally? Can Russia produce most of the goods it needs to sustain the civilian economy and the war?

"The age for men with the highest ranks in the reserves can be called up "remains" at 70. For other senior ranks it has risen to up to 65, while for junior officers, it is now up until the age of 60. Meanwhile, general reservists can be brought back into service until the age of 55, 10 years older than previously."
"At the other end of the scale, head of the State Duma Committee on Defense, Andrei Kartapolov, said that the lower limit of the military age of 18 for Russian men will remain the same, reversing a proposal by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to increase it to 21."
"Legislation amendments due to come into force by October 2023 will increase the fines for those who do not heed a call up without a valid reason to up to 50,000 rubles (about $550) more than 16 times the current fine of 3,000 rubles ($33"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-raises-elderly-army-serviceman-70-deemed-eligible-russia-ukraine-1814670

Within a year, the impact of this decision upon internal productivity should become apparent to outside observers. If you look at Russian population demographics, the able-bodied 30 to 50-somethings are the most economically productive workforce group. They are the ones with the most current education and experience driving the Russian economy. Russia already has consumed much of its labor pipeline in the 18 to 30 range through either military service or maintaining the security apparatus. By now tapping the age group currently running the economy, this should create a cascading domino effect on maintaining current productivity. Fewer hands means fewer products.

Militarily, although there may be 30 or 40-somethings that have military skills, I would expect the Russian military to have difficulty re-integrating older soldiers. Although they may be individually trained, their readiness and motivation will require months of adjustment. An army runs on it's stomach and pay, so will become a massive economic drain, which is fine if you have sufficient productivity; but this will become a shortening cycle of need vs strained production.

External Russian initiatives are TBD, but early indications seem the global enthusiasm for involvement in Russia is tepid, at best.

"A video shared online shows Putin awkwardly standing around for over 20 seconds as he waits to meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi during the second annual Russia-Africa summit. In the clip, Putin strolls around the room in silence with his hands behind his back and idly straightens items on a table before continuing to pace."
https://www.newsweek.com/video-putin-waiting-awkwardly-egypt-president-video-1815838
7/27/23

"Putin has grabbed hold of his respected African partner and won't let him go. The Ethiopian prime minister felt a little embarrassed,"
"the most awkward handshake ever"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-awkward-handshake-mocked-abiy-ahmed-russia-africa-summit-1815578

But I didn't address why Prigozhin's mutiny is not a 'nothingburger' from a strategic sense. The main sign that Russia has approaching a Prigozhin-inspired inflection point is this:

"Tucked away in a new law aimed at raising the draft age for Russia’s military are several mysterious amendments that are designed to create new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country. The military companies, also known as “special enterprises,” would be there to maintain public order, protect Russia’s borders, and counter sabotage efforts, according to the text of the bill."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-dystopian-plan-post-mutiny-024538791.html

Prior to Prigozhin's mutiny, this was not on the radar, so why would Putin form new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country when conscription is so difficult Russia has to draft 70-year-olds? I believe the answer is it's the proxy for Full-Mobilization as well as keeping potential troublemakers within a Russian chain-of-command, but without calling it Full-Mobilization.

Do you think Russia currently has the supplies, currency reserves, training capacity to do this? My bet is no, and the country is still on-track towards anarchy within two years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are photos of African diplomats in St. Petersburg meeting with Prigozhin, the head of Wagner.

I genuinely don't understand why countries like South Africa, the Central African Republic, Egypt, and Ethiopia are choosing to align themselves with Russia at this moment in time, particularly since Russia is destroying Ukraine's capacity to export grain to the region.

Pathetic.

The Cold War is over. These countries should be regarded as pariah states. No aid. No trade.

Because there’s nothing to be gained from Ukraine and they want the Russian grain. Among other reasons

Fair enough. But North America, Europe, and Asia do not need Africa. They are playing an incredibly stupid game, particularly South Africa and Ethiopia. Genuine idiots.

Why are they upset if they don't need them? You know nothing about the world.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

At the Minsk Agreements Putin once said: “Нравится, не нравится — терпи, моя красавица.” Надо исполнять. По-другому не получится (“Like it or not — put up with it, my beauty.” You have to follow the terms. There’s no other way”).
The Moscow Times

Tactically, this is what Putin seems to believe and what most Russians see on a day-to-day basis. Putin's thinking is that if he loses militarily in Ukraine, that he's finished politically. He believes that once he "wins" in Ukraine, that all will be forgiven and Russia will be all better. He also believes that if those loyal to him are gathered around his island, they will be his buffer to keep everyone else at bay. His chips seem to be all-in on this theory.

On one hand, Russia has switched mostly to bitcoin which helps to stabilize their economic system and offset disruptions, but the question is still where income will come from or is the Russian Government just printing as many Rubles as it needs on any given day (leading to hyperinflation-based collapse of the Ruble and Russian economy). Generally there are two primary methods to maintain the Russian Rouble; by maintaining mostly internal circulation (ex. the Stalinist State system) or externally (via imports / exports) or some combination of the two. As an exporter, Russian economic expenditures are offset selling oil to obtain income from other countries. As an importer, Russian imports are still heavily dependent upon (Black Sea) shipping and rail. If Ukraine can conduct military action against these two transportation methods (quite possible), Russia's already rising inflation could go much further.

But how will the Russian rouble fare internally? Can Russia produce most of the goods it needs to sustain the civilian economy and the war?

"The age for men with the highest ranks in the reserves can be called up "remains" at 70. For other senior ranks it has risen to up to 65, while for junior officers, it is now up until the age of 60. Meanwhile, general reservists can be brought back into service until the age of 55, 10 years older than previously."
"At the other end of the scale, head of the State Duma Committee on Defense, Andrei Kartapolov, said that the lower limit of the military age of 18 for Russian men will remain the same, reversing a proposal by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to increase it to 21."
"Legislation amendments due to come into force by October 2023 will increase the fines for those who do not heed a call up without a valid reason to up to 50,000 rubles (about $550) more than 16 times the current fine of 3,000 rubles ($33"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-raises-elderly-army-serviceman-70-deemed-eligible-russia-ukraine-1814670

Within a year, the impact of this decision upon internal productivity should become apparent to outside observers. If you look at Russian population demographics, the able-bodied 30 to 50-somethings are the most economically productive workforce group. They are the ones with the most current education and experience driving the Russian economy. Russia already has consumed much of its labor pipeline in the 18 to 30 range through either military service or maintaining the security apparatus. By now tapping the age group currently running the economy, this should create a cascading domino effect on maintaining current productivity. Fewer hands means fewer products.

Militarily, although there may be 30 or 40-somethings that have military skills, I would expect the Russian military to have difficulty re-integrating older soldiers. Although they may be individually trained, their readiness and motivation will require months of adjustment. An army runs on it's stomach and pay, so will become a massive economic drain, which is fine if you have sufficient productivity; but this will become a shortening cycle of need vs strained production.

External Russian initiatives are TBD, but early indications seem the global enthusiasm for involvement in Russia is tepid, at best.

"A video shared online shows Putin awkwardly standing around for over 20 seconds as he waits to meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi during the second annual Russia-Africa summit. In the clip, Putin strolls around the room in silence with his hands behind his back and idly straightens items on a table before continuing to pace."
https://www.newsweek.com/video-putin-waiting-awkwardly-egypt-president-video-1815838
7/27/23

"Putin has grabbed hold of his respected African partner and won't let him go. The Ethiopian prime minister felt a little embarrassed,"
"the most awkward handshake ever"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-awkward-handshake-mocked-abiy-ahmed-russia-africa-summit-1815578

But I didn't address why Prigozhin's mutiny is not a 'nothingburger' from a strategic sense. The main sign that Russia has approaching a Prigozhin-inspired inflection point is this:

"Tucked away in a new law aimed at raising the draft age for Russia’s military are several mysterious amendments that are designed to create new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country. The military companies, also known as “special enterprises,” would be there to maintain public order, protect Russia’s borders, and counter sabotage efforts, according to the text of the bill."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-dystopian-plan-post-mutiny-024538791.html

Prior to Prigozhin's mutiny, this was not on the radar, so why would Putin form new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country when conscription is so difficult Russia has to draft 70-year-olds? I believe the answer is it's the proxy for Full-Mobilization as well as keeping potential troublemakers within a Russian chain-of-command, but without calling it Full-Mobilization.

Do you think Russia currently has the supplies, currency reserves, training capacity to do this? My bet is no, and the country is still on-track towards anarchy within two years.

Russia defeated Napoleon and Hitler when everybody thought that they were finished and retreating. Never underestimate Russia.
The country on-track towards anarchy is Ukraine. Have you been there? I have. The level of destruction is unimaginable. It will take 50 years to rebuild that country once the war is over.
Ukraine's counteroffensive is failing badly. Zelensky would be wise to negotiate a settlement to end the war and preserve the territories they currently have under control, but more importantly to preserve the life of ten of thousands of Ukrainian people.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Russia defeated Napoleon and Hitler when everybody thought that they were finished and retreating. Never underestimate Russia.
The country on-track towards anarchy is Ukraine. Have you been there? I have. The level of destruction is unimaginable. It will take 50 years to rebuild that country once the war is over.
Ukraine's counteroffensive is failing badly. Zelensky would be wise to negotiate a settlement to end the war and preserve the territories they currently have under control, but more importantly to preserve the life of ten of thousands of Ukrainian people.

Napoleon, WTF are you talking about? How is that relevant at all? If anything, Russia and its crappy supply lines are playing the role of Napoleon in this war. Ukraine's counteroffensive is already far more successful than Russia's winter offensive. How many bodies did they throw away to level a town they've already lost?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

You don't? Then you must have been deaf and blind. I don't have time to look up the links but practically every single member of the commentariat was beside themselves churning out stories that made it sound like Russia is tottering on the brink of collapse and Putin must be shivering the corner in a bunker somewhere.

I called my sister in Moscow on that day. I wasn't even mildly worried but I wanted to get a real scoop. She said - "dunno what the deal is and don't care. My husband is at the country house tending the veg and I stayed behind to get a manicure. " That was pretty typical of the level of excitement these news caused locally.

This doesn't surprise me. The coverage of Russia and Russian affairs here is so incredibly incompetent, I read in place of funny pages.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

At the Minsk Agreements Putin once said: “Нравится, не нравится — терпи, моя красавица.” Надо исполнять. По-другому не получится (“Like it or not — put up with it, my beauty.” You have to follow the terms. There’s no other way”).
The Moscow Times

Tactically, this is what Putin seems to believe and what most Russians see on a day-to-day basis. Putin's thinking is that if he loses militarily in Ukraine, that he's finished politically. He believes that once he "wins" in Ukraine, that all will be forgiven and Russia will be all better. He also believes that if those loyal to him are gathered around his island, they will be his buffer to keep everyone else at bay. His chips seem to be all-in on this theory.

On one hand, Russia has switched mostly to bitcoin which helps to stabilize their economic system and offset disruptions, but the question is still where income will come from or is the Russian Government just printing as many Rubles as it needs on any given day (leading to hyperinflation-based collapse of the Ruble and Russian economy). Generally there are two primary methods to maintain the Russian Rouble; by maintaining mostly internal circulation (ex. the Stalinist State system) or externally (via imports / exports) or some combination of the two. As an exporter, Russian economic expenditures are offset selling oil to obtain income from other countries. As an importer, Russian imports are still heavily dependent upon (Black Sea) shipping and rail. If Ukraine can conduct military action against these two transportation methods (quite possible), Russia's already rising inflation could go much further.

But how will the Russian rouble fare internally? Can Russia produce most of the goods it needs to sustain the civilian economy and the war?

"The age for men with the highest ranks in the reserves can be called up "remains" at 70. For other senior ranks it has risen to up to 65, while for junior officers, it is now up until the age of 60. Meanwhile, general reservists can be brought back into service until the age of 55, 10 years older than previously."
"At the other end of the scale, head of the State Duma Committee on Defense, Andrei Kartapolov, said that the lower limit of the military age of 18 for Russian men will remain the same, reversing a proposal by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to increase it to 21."
"Legislation amendments due to come into force by October 2023 will increase the fines for those who do not heed a call up without a valid reason to up to 50,000 rubles (about $550) more than 16 times the current fine of 3,000 rubles ($33"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-raises-elderly-army-serviceman-70-deemed-eligible-russia-ukraine-1814670

Within a year, the impact of this decision upon internal productivity should become apparent to outside observers. If you look at Russian population demographics, the able-bodied 30 to 50-somethings are the most economically productive workforce group. They are the ones with the most current education and experience driving the Russian economy. Russia already has consumed much of its labor pipeline in the 18 to 30 range through either military service or maintaining the security apparatus. By now tapping the age group currently running the economy, this should create a cascading domino effect on maintaining current productivity. Fewer hands means fewer products.

Militarily, although there may be 30 or 40-somethings that have military skills, I would expect the Russian military to have difficulty re-integrating older soldiers. Although they may be individually trained, their readiness and motivation will require months of adjustment. An army runs on it's stomach and pay, so will become a massive economic drain, which is fine if you have sufficient productivity; but this will become a shortening cycle of need vs strained production.

External Russian initiatives are TBD, but early indications seem the global enthusiasm for involvement in Russia is tepid, at best.

"A video shared online shows Putin awkwardly standing around for over 20 seconds as he waits to meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi during the second annual Russia-Africa summit. In the clip, Putin strolls around the room in silence with his hands behind his back and idly straightens items on a table before continuing to pace."
https://www.newsweek.com/video-putin-waiting-awkwardly-egypt-president-video-1815838
7/27/23

"Putin has grabbed hold of his respected African partner and won't let him go. The Ethiopian prime minister felt a little embarrassed,"
"the most awkward handshake ever"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-awkward-handshake-mocked-abiy-ahmed-russia-africa-summit-1815578

But I didn't address why Prigozhin's mutiny is not a 'nothingburger' from a strategic sense. The main sign that Russia has approaching a Prigozhin-inspired inflection point is this:

"Tucked away in a new law aimed at raising the draft age for Russia’s military are several mysterious amendments that are designed to create new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country. The military companies, also known as “special enterprises,” would be there to maintain public order, protect Russia’s borders, and counter sabotage efforts, according to the text of the bill."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-dystopian-plan-post-mutiny-024538791.html

Prior to Prigozhin's mutiny, this was not on the radar, so why would Putin form new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country when conscription is so difficult Russia has to draft 70-year-olds? I believe the answer is it's the proxy for Full-Mobilization as well as keeping potential troublemakers within a Russian chain-of-command, but without calling it Full-Mobilization.

Do you think Russia currently has the supplies, currency reserves, training capacity to do this? My bet is no, and the country is still on-track towards anarchy within two years.

Russia defeated Napoleon and Hitler when everybody thought that they were finished and retreating. Never underestimate Russia.
The country on-track towards anarchy is Ukraine. Have you been there? I have. The level of destruction is unimaginable. It will take 50 years to rebuild that country once the war is over.
Ukraine's counteroffensive is failing badly. Zelensky would be wise to negotiate a settlement to end the war and preserve the territories they currently have under control, but more importantly to preserve the life of ten of thousands of Ukrainian people.

Russia would have lost to Hitler if the west was not in the war. You would be speaking German now instead of your weekends in Ukraine of taking pictures of their air defenses or busy restaurants to target.

Your time will come when russia finally burns to ashes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

At the Minsk Agreements Putin once said: “Нравится, не нравится — терпи, моя красавица.” Надо исполнять. По-другому не получится (“Like it or not — put up with it, my beauty.” You have to follow the terms. There’s no other way”).
The Moscow Times

Tactically, this is what Putin seems to believe and what most Russians see on a day-to-day basis. Putin's thinking is that if he loses militarily in Ukraine, that he's finished politically. He believes that once he "wins" in Ukraine, that all will be forgiven and Russia will be all better. He also believes that if those loyal to him are gathered around his island, they will be his buffer to keep everyone else at bay. His chips seem to be all-in on this theory.

On one hand, Russia has switched mostly to bitcoin which helps to stabilize their economic system and offset disruptions, but the question is still where income will come from or is the Russian Government just printing as many Rubles as it needs on any given day (leading to hyperinflation-based collapse of the Ruble and Russian economy). Generally there are two primary methods to maintain the Russian Rouble; by maintaining mostly internal circulation (ex. the Stalinist State system) or externally (via imports / exports) or some combination of the two. As an exporter, Russian economic expenditures are offset selling oil to obtain income from other countries. As an importer, Russian imports are still heavily dependent upon (Black Sea) shipping and rail. If Ukraine can conduct military action against these two transportation methods (quite possible), Russia's already rising inflation could go much further.

But how will the Russian rouble fare internally? Can Russia produce most of the goods it needs to sustain the civilian economy and the war?

"The age for men with the highest ranks in the reserves can be called up "remains" at 70. For other senior ranks it has risen to up to 65, while for junior officers, it is now up until the age of 60. Meanwhile, general reservists can be brought back into service until the age of 55, 10 years older than previously."
"At the other end of the scale, head of the State Duma Committee on Defense, Andrei Kartapolov, said that the lower limit of the military age of 18 for Russian men will remain the same, reversing a proposal by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to increase it to 21."
"Legislation amendments due to come into force by October 2023 will increase the fines for those who do not heed a call up without a valid reason to up to 50,000 rubles (about $550) more than 16 times the current fine of 3,000 rubles ($33"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-raises-elderly-army-serviceman-70-deemed-eligible-russia-ukraine-1814670

Within a year, the impact of this decision upon internal productivity should become apparent to outside observers. If you look at Russian population demographics, the able-bodied 30 to 50-somethings are the most economically productive workforce group. They are the ones with the most current education and experience driving the Russian economy. Russia already has consumed much of its labor pipeline in the 18 to 30 range through either military service or maintaining the security apparatus. By now tapping the age group currently running the economy, this should create a cascading domino effect on maintaining current productivity. Fewer hands means fewer products.

Militarily, although there may be 30 or 40-somethings that have military skills, I would expect the Russian military to have difficulty re-integrating older soldiers. Although they may be individually trained, their readiness and motivation will require months of adjustment. An army runs on it's stomach and pay, so will become a massive economic drain, which is fine if you have sufficient productivity; but this will become a shortening cycle of need vs strained production.

External Russian initiatives are TBD, but early indications seem the global enthusiasm for involvement in Russia is tepid, at best.

"A video shared online shows Putin awkwardly standing around for over 20 seconds as he waits to meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi during the second annual Russia-Africa summit. In the clip, Putin strolls around the room in silence with his hands behind his back and idly straightens items on a table before continuing to pace."
https://www.newsweek.com/video-putin-waiting-awkwardly-egypt-president-video-1815838
7/27/23

"Putin has grabbed hold of his respected African partner and won't let him go. The Ethiopian prime minister felt a little embarrassed,"
"the most awkward handshake ever"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-awkward-handshake-mocked-abiy-ahmed-russia-africa-summit-1815578

But I didn't address why Prigozhin's mutiny is not a 'nothingburger' from a strategic sense. The main sign that Russia has approaching a Prigozhin-inspired inflection point is this:

"Tucked away in a new law aimed at raising the draft age for Russia’s military are several mysterious amendments that are designed to create new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country. The military companies, also known as “special enterprises,” would be there to maintain public order, protect Russia’s borders, and counter sabotage efforts, according to the text of the bill."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-dystopian-plan-post-mutiny-024538791.html

Prior to Prigozhin's mutiny, this was not on the radar, so why would Putin form new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country when conscription is so difficult Russia has to draft 70-year-olds? I believe the answer is it's the proxy for Full-Mobilization as well as keeping potential troublemakers within a Russian chain-of-command, but without calling it Full-Mobilization.

Do you think Russia currently has the supplies, currency reserves, training capacity to do this? My bet is no, and the country is still on-track towards anarchy within two years.

Russia defeated Napoleon and Hitler when everybody thought that they were finished and retreating. Never underestimate Russia.
The country on-track towards anarchy is Ukraine. Have you been there? I have. The level of destruction is unimaginable. It will take 50 years to rebuild that country once the war is over.
Ukraine's counteroffensive is failing badly. Zelensky would be wise to negotiate a settlement to end the war and preserve the territories they currently have under control, but more importantly to preserve the life of ten of thousands of Ukrainian people.

Russia would have lost to Hitler if the west was not in the war. You would be speaking German now instead of your weekends in Ukraine of taking pictures of their air defenses or busy restaurants to target.

Your time will come when russia finally burns to ashes.

Let's not even talk about what would have happened to Ukraine if Hitler won. Actually we do know. Most of their young was sent to tend the pigs and work at factories in Germany. We all know what happened to the local Jewry, with able and enthusiastic assistance from the locals.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

You don't? Then you must have been deaf and blind. I don't have time to look up the links but practically every single member of the commentariat was beside themselves churning out stories that made it sound like Russia is tottering on the brink of collapse and Putin must be shivering the corner in a bunker somewhere.

I called my sister in Moscow on that day. I wasn't even mildly worried but I wanted to get a real scoop. She said - "dunno what the deal is and don't care. My husband is at the country house tending the veg and I stayed behind to get a manicure. " That was pretty typical of the level of excitement these news caused locally.

This doesn't surprise me. The coverage of Russia and Russian affairs here is so incredibly incompetent, I read in place of funny pages.

Manicures and dachas.

Meanwhile. a couple of hundred thousand Russian men have died. A good deal of Russia's military capacity is gone. Thousands of tanks, apcs, artillery, etc. And Russia is probably the most despised country on the planet presently.

When your homes are Iran and North Korea, there's problem.

For most human beings, this would be a tragedy. For Russians, it appears to be nothing.

Manicures and dachas.

Just another day for Russians

Bizarre people

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

You don't? Then you must have been deaf and blind. I don't have time to look up the links but practically every single member of the commentariat was beside themselves churning out stories that made it sound like Russia is tottering on the brink of collapse and Putin must be shivering the corner in a bunker somewhere.

I called my sister in Moscow on that day. I wasn't even mildly worried but I wanted to get a real scoop. She said - "dunno what the deal is and don't care. My husband is at the country house tending the veg and I stayed behind to get a manicure. " That was pretty typical of the level of excitement these news caused locally.

This doesn't surprise me. The coverage of Russia and Russian affairs here is so incredibly incompetent, I read in place of funny pages.

Manicures and dachas.

Meanwhile. a couple of hundred thousand Russian men have died. A good deal of Russia's military capacity is gone. Thousands of tanks, apcs, artillery, etc. And Russia is probably the most despised country on the planet presently.

When your homes are Iran and North Korea, there's problem.

For most human beings, this would be a tragedy. For Russians, it appears to be nothing.

Manicures and dachas.

Just another day for Russians

Bizarre people

LOL only if you got an F in geography and think that the planet consists only of North America+Europe. Wouldn't put it past you, ya know.