Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

At the Minsk Agreements Putin once said: “Нравится, не нравится — терпи, моя красавица.” Надо исполнять. По-другому не получится (“Like it or not — put up with it, my beauty.” You have to follow the terms. There’s no other way”).
The Moscow Times

Tactically, this is what Putin seems to believe and what most Russians see on a day-to-day basis. Putin's thinking is that if he loses militarily in Ukraine, that he's finished politically. He believes that once he "wins" in Ukraine, that all will be forgiven and Russia will be all better. He also believes that if those loyal to him are gathered around his island, they will be his buffer to keep everyone else at bay. His chips seem to be all-in on this theory.

On one hand, Russia has switched mostly to bitcoin which helps to stabilize their economic system and offset disruptions, but the question is still where income will come from or is the Russian Government just printing as many Rubles as it needs on any given day (leading to hyperinflation-based collapse of the Ruble and Russian economy). Generally there are two primary methods to maintain the Russian Rouble; by maintaining mostly internal circulation (ex. the Stalinist State system) or externally (via imports / exports) or some combination of the two. As an exporter, Russian economic expenditures are offset selling oil to obtain income from other countries. As an importer, Russian imports are still heavily dependent upon (Black Sea) shipping and rail. If Ukraine can conduct military action against these two transportation methods (quite possible), Russia's already rising inflation could go much further.

But how will the Russian rouble fare internally? Can Russia produce most of the goods it needs to sustain the civilian economy and the war?

"The age for men with the highest ranks in the reserves can be called up "remains" at 70. For other senior ranks it has risen to up to 65, while for junior officers, it is now up until the age of 60. Meanwhile, general reservists can be brought back into service until the age of 55, 10 years older than previously."
"At the other end of the scale, head of the State Duma Committee on Defense, Andrei Kartapolov, said that the lower limit of the military age of 18 for Russian men will remain the same, reversing a proposal by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to increase it to 21."
"Legislation amendments due to come into force by October 2023 will increase the fines for those who do not heed a call up without a valid reason to up to 50,000 rubles (about $550) more than 16 times the current fine of 3,000 rubles ($33"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-raises-elderly-army-serviceman-70-deemed-eligible-russia-ukraine-1814670

Within a year, the impact of this decision upon internal productivity should become apparent to outside observers. If you look at Russian population demographics, the able-bodied 30 to 50-somethings are the most economically productive workforce group. They are the ones with the most current education and experience driving the Russian economy. Russia already has consumed much of its labor pipeline in the 18 to 30 range through either military service or maintaining the security apparatus. By now tapping the age group currently running the economy, this should create a cascading domino effect on maintaining current productivity. Fewer hands means fewer products.

Militarily, although there may be 30 or 40-somethings that have military skills, I would expect the Russian military to have difficulty re-integrating older soldiers. Although they may be individually trained, their readiness and motivation will require months of adjustment. An army runs on it's stomach and pay, so will become a massive economic drain, which is fine if you have sufficient productivity; but this will become a shortening cycle of need vs strained production.

External Russian initiatives are TBD, but early indications seem the global enthusiasm for involvement in Russia is tepid, at best.

"A video shared online shows Putin awkwardly standing around for over 20 seconds as he waits to meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi during the second annual Russia-Africa summit. In the clip, Putin strolls around the room in silence with his hands behind his back and idly straightens items on a table before continuing to pace."
https://www.newsweek.com/video-putin-waiting-awkwardly-egypt-president-video-1815838
7/27/23

"Putin has grabbed hold of his respected African partner and won't let him go. The Ethiopian prime minister felt a little embarrassed,"
"the most awkward handshake ever"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-awkward-handshake-mocked-abiy-ahmed-russia-africa-summit-1815578

But I didn't address why Prigozhin's mutiny is not a 'nothingburger' from a strategic sense. The main sign that Russia has approaching a Prigozhin-inspired inflection point is this:

"Tucked away in a new law aimed at raising the draft age for Russia’s military are several mysterious amendments that are designed to create new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country. The military companies, also known as “special enterprises,” would be there to maintain public order, protect Russia’s borders, and counter sabotage efforts, according to the text of the bill."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-dystopian-plan-post-mutiny-024538791.html

Prior to Prigozhin's mutiny, this was not on the radar, so why would Putin form new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country when conscription is so difficult Russia has to draft 70-year-olds? I believe the answer is it's the proxy for Full-Mobilization as well as keeping potential troublemakers within a Russian chain-of-command, but without calling it Full-Mobilization.

Do you think Russia currently has the supplies, currency reserves, training capacity to do this? My bet is no, and the country is still on-track towards anarchy within two years.

Russia defeated Napoleon and Hitler when everybody thought that they were finished and retreating. Never underestimate Russia.
The country on-track towards anarchy is Ukraine. Have you been there? I have. The level of destruction is unimaginable. It will take 50 years to rebuild that country once the war is over.
Ukraine's counteroffensive is failing badly. Zelensky would be wise to negotiate a settlement to end the war and preserve the territories they currently have under control, but more importantly to preserve the life of ten of thousands of Ukrainian people.

Russia would have lost to Hitler if the west was not in the war. You would be speaking German now instead of your weekends in Ukraine of taking pictures of their air defenses or busy restaurants to target.

Your time will come when russia finally burns to ashes.

Let's not even talk about what would have happened to Ukraine if Hitler won. Actually we do know. Most of their young was sent to tend the pigs and work at factories in Germany. We all know what happened to the local Jewry, with able and enthusiastic assistance from the locals.

You are aware that at the ends of WW2 it was america that stopped the Allie’s from killing Stalin- they thought it would look “bad for our image” if we attacked an “ally”. Everyone in the world was all for it; including the Germans. Russia has been, and always will be hated that much.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

At the Minsk Agreements Putin once said: “Нравится, не нравится — терпи, моя красавица.” Надо исполнять. По-другому не получится (“Like it or not — put up with it, my beauty.” You have to follow the terms. There’s no other way”).
The Moscow Times

Tactically, this is what Putin seems to believe and what most Russians see on a day-to-day basis. Putin's thinking is that if he loses militarily in Ukraine, that he's finished politically. He believes that once he "wins" in Ukraine, that all will be forgiven and Russia will be all better. He also believes that if those loyal to him are gathered around his island, they will be his buffer to keep everyone else at bay. His chips seem to be all-in on this theory.

On one hand, Russia has switched mostly to bitcoin which helps to stabilize their economic system and offset disruptions, but the question is still where income will come from or is the Russian Government just printing as many Rubles as it needs on any given day (leading to hyperinflation-based collapse of the Ruble and Russian economy). Generally there are two primary methods to maintain the Russian Rouble; by maintaining mostly internal circulation (ex. the Stalinist State system) or externally (via imports / exports) or some combination of the two. As an exporter, Russian economic expenditures are offset selling oil to obtain income from other countries. As an importer, Russian imports are still heavily dependent upon (Black Sea) shipping and rail. If Ukraine can conduct military action against these two transportation methods (quite possible), Russia's already rising inflation could go much further.

But how will the Russian rouble fare internally? Can Russia produce most of the goods it needs to sustain the civilian economy and the war?

"The age for men with the highest ranks in the reserves can be called up "remains" at 70. For other senior ranks it has risen to up to 65, while for junior officers, it is now up until the age of 60. Meanwhile, general reservists can be brought back into service until the age of 55, 10 years older than previously."
"At the other end of the scale, head of the State Duma Committee on Defense, Andrei Kartapolov, said that the lower limit of the military age of 18 for Russian men will remain the same, reversing a proposal by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to increase it to 21."
"Legislation amendments due to come into force by October 2023 will increase the fines for those who do not heed a call up without a valid reason to up to 50,000 rubles (about $550) more than 16 times the current fine of 3,000 rubles ($33"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-raises-elderly-army-serviceman-70-deemed-eligible-russia-ukraine-1814670

Within a year, the impact of this decision upon internal productivity should become apparent to outside observers. If you look at Russian population demographics, the able-bodied 30 to 50-somethings are the most economically productive workforce group. They are the ones with the most current education and experience driving the Russian economy. Russia already has consumed much of its labor pipeline in the 18 to 30 range through either military service or maintaining the security apparatus. By now tapping the age group currently running the economy, this should create a cascading domino effect on maintaining current productivity. Fewer hands means fewer products.

Militarily, although there may be 30 or 40-somethings that have military skills, I would expect the Russian military to have difficulty re-integrating older soldiers. Although they may be individually trained, their readiness and motivation will require months of adjustment. An army runs on it's stomach and pay, so will become a massive economic drain, which is fine if you have sufficient productivity; but this will become a shortening cycle of need vs strained production.

External Russian initiatives are TBD, but early indications seem the global enthusiasm for involvement in Russia is tepid, at best.

"A video shared online shows Putin awkwardly standing around for over 20 seconds as he waits to meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi during the second annual Russia-Africa summit. In the clip, Putin strolls around the room in silence with his hands behind his back and idly straightens items on a table before continuing to pace."
https://www.newsweek.com/video-putin-waiting-awkwardly-egypt-president-video-1815838
7/27/23

"Putin has grabbed hold of his respected African partner and won't let him go. The Ethiopian prime minister felt a little embarrassed,"
"the most awkward handshake ever"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-awkward-handshake-mocked-abiy-ahmed-russia-africa-summit-1815578

But I didn't address why Prigozhin's mutiny is not a 'nothingburger' from a strategic sense. The main sign that Russia has approaching a Prigozhin-inspired inflection point is this:

"Tucked away in a new law aimed at raising the draft age for Russia’s military are several mysterious amendments that are designed to create new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country. The military companies, also known as “special enterprises,” would be there to maintain public order, protect Russia’s borders, and counter sabotage efforts, according to the text of the bill."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-dystopian-plan-post-mutiny-024538791.html

Prior to Prigozhin's mutiny, this was not on the radar, so why would Putin form new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country when conscription is so difficult Russia has to draft 70-year-olds? I believe the answer is it's the proxy for Full-Mobilization as well as keeping potential troublemakers within a Russian chain-of-command, but without calling it Full-Mobilization.

Do you think Russia currently has the supplies, currency reserves, training capacity to do this? My bet is no, and the country is still on-track towards anarchy within two years.

Russia defeated Napoleon and Hitler when everybody thought that they were finished and retreating. Never underestimate Russia.
The country on-track towards anarchy is Ukraine. Have you been there? I have. The level of destruction is unimaginable. It will take 50 years to rebuild that country once the war is over.
Ukraine's counteroffensive is failing badly. Zelensky would be wise to negotiate a settlement to end the war and preserve the territories they currently have under control, but more importantly to preserve the life of ten of thousands of Ukrainian people.

Russia would have lost to Hitler if the west was not in the war. You would be speaking German now instead of your weekends in Ukraine of taking pictures of their air defenses or busy restaurants to target.

Your time will come when russia finally burns to ashes.

Let's not even talk about what would have happened to Ukraine if Hitler won. Actually we do know. Most of their young was sent to tend the pigs and work at factories in Germany. We all know what happened to the local Jewry, with able and enthusiastic assistance from the locals.

You are aware that at the ends of WW2 it was america that stopped the Allie’s from killing Stalin- they thought it would look “bad for our image” if we attacked an “ally”. Everyone in the world was all for it; including the Germans. Russia has been, and always will be hated that much.

Again with your "everyone in the world" nonsense, are you?

You must also be aware that at the end of WW2 most of Ukraine was Hungary, Romania or Poland, right?

I feel bad, though, even arguing with someone who thinks it was called "Allie". It's like...taking candy from a baby.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

At the Minsk Agreements Putin once said: “Нравится, не нравится — терпи, моя красавица.” Надо исполнять. По-другому не получится (“Like it or not — put up with it, my beauty.” You have to follow the terms. There’s no other way”).
The Moscow Times

Tactically, this is what Putin seems to believe and what most Russians see on a day-to-day basis. Putin's thinking is that if he loses militarily in Ukraine, that he's finished politically. He believes that once he "wins" in Ukraine, that all will be forgiven and Russia will be all better. He also believes that if those loyal to him are gathered around his island, they will be his buffer to keep everyone else at bay. His chips seem to be all-in on this theory.

On one hand, Russia has switched mostly to bitcoin which helps to stabilize their economic system and offset disruptions, but the question is still where income will come from or is the Russian Government just printing as many Rubles as it needs on any given day (leading to hyperinflation-based collapse of the Ruble and Russian economy). Generally there are two primary methods to maintain the Russian Rouble; by maintaining mostly internal circulation (ex. the Stalinist State system) or externally (via imports / exports) or some combination of the two. As an exporter, Russian economic expenditures are offset selling oil to obtain income from other countries. As an importer, Russian imports are still heavily dependent upon (Black Sea) shipping and rail. If Ukraine can conduct military action against these two transportation methods (quite possible), Russia's already rising inflation could go much further.

But how will the Russian rouble fare internally? Can Russia produce most of the goods it needs to sustain the civilian economy and the war?

"The age for men with the highest ranks in the reserves can be called up "remains" at 70. For other senior ranks it has risen to up to 65, while for junior officers, it is now up until the age of 60. Meanwhile, general reservists can be brought back into service until the age of 55, 10 years older than previously."
"At the other end of the scale, head of the State Duma Committee on Defense, Andrei Kartapolov, said that the lower limit of the military age of 18 for Russian men will remain the same, reversing a proposal by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to increase it to 21."
"Legislation amendments due to come into force by October 2023 will increase the fines for those who do not heed a call up without a valid reason to up to 50,000 rubles (about $550) more than 16 times the current fine of 3,000 rubles ($33"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-raises-elderly-army-serviceman-70-deemed-eligible-russia-ukraine-1814670

Within a year, the impact of this decision upon internal productivity should become apparent to outside observers. If you look at Russian population demographics, the able-bodied 30 to 50-somethings are the most economically productive workforce group. They are the ones with the most current education and experience driving the Russian economy. Russia already has consumed much of its labor pipeline in the 18 to 30 range through either military service or maintaining the security apparatus. By now tapping the age group currently running the economy, this should create a cascading domino effect on maintaining current productivity. Fewer hands means fewer products.

Militarily, although there may be 30 or 40-somethings that have military skills, I would expect the Russian military to have difficulty re-integrating older soldiers. Although they may be individually trained, their readiness and motivation will require months of adjustment. An army runs on it's stomach and pay, so will become a massive economic drain, which is fine if you have sufficient productivity; but this will become a shortening cycle of need vs strained production.

External Russian initiatives are TBD, but early indications seem the global enthusiasm for involvement in Russia is tepid, at best.

"A video shared online shows Putin awkwardly standing around for over 20 seconds as he waits to meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi during the second annual Russia-Africa summit. In the clip, Putin strolls around the room in silence with his hands behind his back and idly straightens items on a table before continuing to pace."
https://www.newsweek.com/video-putin-waiting-awkwardly-egypt-president-video-1815838
7/27/23

"Putin has grabbed hold of his respected African partner and won't let him go. The Ethiopian prime minister felt a little embarrassed,"
"the most awkward handshake ever"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-awkward-handshake-mocked-abiy-ahmed-russia-africa-summit-1815578

But I didn't address why Prigozhin's mutiny is not a 'nothingburger' from a strategic sense. The main sign that Russia has approaching a Prigozhin-inspired inflection point is this:

"Tucked away in a new law aimed at raising the draft age for Russia’s military are several mysterious amendments that are designed to create new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country. The military companies, also known as “special enterprises,” would be there to maintain public order, protect Russia’s borders, and counter sabotage efforts, according to the text of the bill."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-dystopian-plan-post-mutiny-024538791.html

Prior to Prigozhin's mutiny, this was not on the radar, so why would Putin form new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country when conscription is so difficult Russia has to draft 70-year-olds? I believe the answer is it's the proxy for Full-Mobilization as well as keeping potential troublemakers within a Russian chain-of-command, but without calling it Full-Mobilization.

Do you think Russia currently has the supplies, currency reserves, training capacity to do this? My bet is no, and the country is still on-track towards anarchy within two years.

Russia defeated Napoleon and Hitler when everybody thought that they were finished and retreating. Never underestimate Russia.
The country on-track towards anarchy is Ukraine. Have you been there? I have. The level of destruction is unimaginable. It will take 50 years to rebuild that country once the war is over.
Ukraine's counteroffensive is failing badly. Zelensky would be wise to negotiate a settlement to end the war and preserve the territories they currently have under control, but more importantly to preserve the life of ten of thousands of Ukrainian people.

Russia would have lost to Hitler if the west was not in the war. You would be speaking German now instead of your weekends in Ukraine of taking pictures of their air defenses or busy restaurants to target.

Your time will come when russia finally burns to ashes.

Let's not even talk about what would have happened to Ukraine if Hitler won. Actually we do know. Most of their young was sent to tend the pigs and work at factories in Germany. We all know what happened to the local Jewry, with able and enthusiastic assistance from the locals.

You are aware that at the ends of WW2 it was america that stopped the Allie’s from killing Stalin- they thought it would look “bad for our image” if we attacked an “ally”. Everyone in the world was all for it; including the Germans. Russia has been, and always will be hated that much.

LOL you hate the Russians so much you want to kill a Georgian for it? Talk about collateral damage!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

You don't? Then you must have been deaf and blind. I don't have time to look up the links but practically every single member of the commentariat was beside themselves churning out stories that made it sound like Russia is tottering on the brink of collapse and Putin must be shivering the corner in a bunker somewhere.

I called my sister in Moscow on that day. I wasn't even mildly worried but I wanted to get a real scoop. She said - "dunno what the deal is and don't care. My husband is at the country house tending the veg and I stayed behind to get a manicure. " That was pretty typical of the level of excitement these news caused locally.

This doesn't surprise me. The coverage of Russia and Russian affairs here is so incredibly incompetent, I read in place of funny pages.

You're not surprised that local Russians don't get real news and/or assessments of the war? None of us are.

[Anonymous]

The "smart" neo-cons are trying to fight China, the ones with more blood-thirst than brains are trying to fight Russia and China at the same time.

https://spectator.org/edward-luttwak-the-u-s-must-end-the-russia-ukraine-war/

Who will end up getting their way?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

You don't? Then you must have been deaf and blind. I don't have time to look up the links but practically every single member of the commentariat was beside themselves churning out stories that made it sound like Russia is tottering on the brink of collapse and Putin must be shivering the corner in a bunker somewhere.

I called my sister in Moscow on that day. I wasn't even mildly worried but I wanted to get a real scoop. She said - "dunno what the deal is and don't care. My husband is at the country house tending the veg and I stayed behind to get a manicure. " That was pretty typical of the level of excitement these news caused locally.

This doesn't surprise me. The coverage of Russia and Russian affairs here is so incredibly incompetent, I read in place of funny pages.

You're not surprised that local Russians don't get real news and/or assessments of the war? None of us are.

There are no real news here, only handwringing and wishful thinking. And her assessment turned out to be 100% spot on. Certainly more accurate than NYT that made it sound like world is about to burst into flames. Lol where’s Mark Ames when you need him.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Putin and Prigozhin are two scorpions in a bottle now. And the long knives are out within the Russian elite (business and security). Putin has been losing slowly since February 25, 2023. Now he’s losing more quickly.

Unfortunately, he’s taking too many down with him. And I’m not hopeful that whoever comes after Putin will be better for Russia. But whoever it is will declare victory in Ukraine and leave. It’s not a uniting issue.

The dam is about to burst so to speak. Just like with Kharkiv, slow at first...then a rout. Ukraine is close to a breakthrough that's going to lead to the same in the south. And if Crimea is truly threatened, Putin is going to have a real tough time of it.

The funny thing is, Ukrainians will gladly bomb “their” Crimea into oblivion if given the chance. They want it so that they don’t care if there’s no one left standing. Reminds me of the Russians in Bakhmut and Mariupol. Which is to say that they are all the same post Soviet blood thirsty idiots. None of them is progressive and humane.

Oh dear, someone's confused. It's been Putin's artillery-happy idiots who have been leveling villages, schools, hospitals and infrastructure. Stop #bothsides-ing this when facts and reality don't support you.

It's funny how you are supporting a dictatorship like a Ukraine. A corrupt regime that didn't hesitate to bomb its own people in the donbass region. I don't like the Russians but Ukrainians are worst. Their fight is none of our business. Our tax dollars should not be used to fight that stupid war. We are invaded at the border in our own country, and instead of fighting that invasion, we are sending weapons and money to fight an invasion in a corrupt country. This has to stop.

It’s really only with Republican pps like this that I am left almost speechless. So much stupidity concentrated in such a short post.

An American wouldn't assume that Ukraine is a dictatorship. Ukraine's last election was pre-war on 31 March 2019. It's a bit silly to assume Ukraine would hold an election in the middle of an invasion, so this is Russian propaganda talking point.

The statement "a corrupt regime that didn't hesitate to bomb its own people in donbass region" are two pieces of Russian propaganda stitched together.

The corruption theme was how Russia would undermine Poroshenko's regime.

"Bomb it's own people in donbass" was also Russian propaganda intended to distract attention from Russian war crimes, especially after Russia had destroyed Bakhmut using incendiary weapons.

Third is the talking point to drive a wedge between Democrats and Republicans on the border issue.

I don't think this is a Republican, or even an American. It's a poser. This one is better than some of the others, who probably were benched.

Russia doesn’t run the corruption perception index. Ukraine is ranked at the bottom of the list as one of the most corrupt countries on the planet. This is what you call a democracy?
You must be paid by the Ukrainian government.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

At the Minsk Agreements Putin once said: “Нравится, не нравится — терпи, моя красавица.” Надо исполнять. По-другому не получится (“Like it or not — put up with it, my beauty.” You have to follow the terms. There’s no other way”).
The Moscow Times

Tactically, this is what Putin seems to believe and what most Russians see on a day-to-day basis. Putin's thinking is that if he loses militarily in Ukraine, that he's finished politically. He believes that once he "wins" in Ukraine, that all will be forgiven and Russia will be all better. He also believes that if those loyal to him are gathered around his island, they will be his buffer to keep everyone else at bay. His chips seem to be all-in on this theory.

On one hand, Russia has switched mostly to bitcoin which helps to stabilize their economic system and offset disruptions, but the question is still where income will come from or is the Russian Government just printing as many Rubles as it needs on any given day (leading to hyperinflation-based collapse of the Ruble and Russian economy). Generally there are two primary methods to maintain the Russian Rouble; by maintaining mostly internal circulation (ex. the Stalinist State system) or externally (via imports / exports) or some combination of the two. As an exporter, Russian economic expenditures are offset selling oil to obtain income from other countries. As an importer, Russian imports are still heavily dependent upon (Black Sea) shipping and rail. If Ukraine can conduct military action against these two transportation methods (quite possible), Russia's already rising inflation could go much further.

But how will the Russian rouble fare internally? Can Russia produce most of the goods it needs to sustain the civilian economy and the war?

"The age for men with the highest ranks in the reserves can be called up "remains" at 70. For other senior ranks it has risen to up to 65, while for junior officers, it is now up until the age of 60. Meanwhile, general reservists can be brought back into service until the age of 55, 10 years older than previously."
"At the other end of the scale, head of the State Duma Committee on Defense, Andrei Kartapolov, said that the lower limit of the military age of 18 for Russian men will remain the same, reversing a proposal by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to increase it to 21."
"Legislation amendments due to come into force by October 2023 will increase the fines for those who do not heed a call up without a valid reason to up to 50,000 rubles (about $550) more than 16 times the current fine of 3,000 rubles ($33"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-raises-elderly-army-serviceman-70-deemed-eligible-russia-ukraine-1814670

Within a year, the impact of this decision upon internal productivity should become apparent to outside observers. If you look at Russian population demographics, the able-bodied 30 to 50-somethings are the most economically productive workforce group. They are the ones with the most current education and experience driving the Russian economy. Russia already has consumed much of its labor pipeline in the 18 to 30 range through either military service or maintaining the security apparatus. By now tapping the age group currently running the economy, this should create a cascading domino effect on maintaining current productivity. Fewer hands means fewer products.

Militarily, although there may be 30 or 40-somethings that have military skills, I would expect the Russian military to have difficulty re-integrating older soldiers. Although they may be individually trained, their readiness and motivation will require months of adjustment. An army runs on it's stomach and pay, so will become a massive economic drain, which is fine if you have sufficient productivity; but this will become a shortening cycle of need vs strained production.

External Russian initiatives are TBD, but early indications seem the global enthusiasm for involvement in Russia is tepid, at best.

"A video shared online shows Putin awkwardly standing around for over 20 seconds as he waits to meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi during the second annual Russia-Africa summit. In the clip, Putin strolls around the room in silence with his hands behind his back and idly straightens items on a table before continuing to pace."
https://www.newsweek.com/video-putin-waiting-awkwardly-egypt-president-video-1815838
7/27/23

"Putin has grabbed hold of his respected African partner and won't let him go. The Ethiopian prime minister felt a little embarrassed,"
"the most awkward handshake ever"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-awkward-handshake-mocked-abiy-ahmed-russia-africa-summit-1815578

But I didn't address why Prigozhin's mutiny is not a 'nothingburger' from a strategic sense. The main sign that Russia has approaching a Prigozhin-inspired inflection point is this:

"Tucked away in a new law aimed at raising the draft age for Russia’s military are several mysterious amendments that are designed to create new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country. The military companies, also known as “special enterprises,” would be there to maintain public order, protect Russia’s borders, and counter sabotage efforts, according to the text of the bill."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-dystopian-plan-post-mutiny-024538791.html

Prior to Prigozhin's mutiny, this was not on the radar, so why would Putin form new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country when conscription is so difficult Russia has to draft 70-year-olds? I believe the answer is it's the proxy for Full-Mobilization as well as keeping potential troublemakers within a Russian chain-of-command, but without calling it Full-Mobilization.

Do you think Russia currently has the supplies, currency reserves, training capacity to do this? My bet is no, and the country is still on-track towards anarchy within two years.

Russia defeated Napoleon and Hitler when everybody thought that they were finished and retreating. Never underestimate Russia.
The country on-track towards anarchy is Ukraine. Have you been there? I have. The level of destruction is unimaginable. It will take 50 years to rebuild that country once the war is over.
Ukraine's counteroffensive is failing badly. Zelensky would be wise to negotiate a settlement to end the war and preserve the territories they currently have under control, but more importantly to preserve the life of ten of thousands of Ukrainian people.

Russia would have lost to Hitler if the west was not in the war. You would be speaking German now instead of your weekends in Ukraine of taking pictures of their air defenses or busy restaurants to target.

Your time will come when russia finally burns to ashes.

Let's not even talk about what would have happened to Ukraine if Hitler won. Actually we do know. Most of their young was sent to tend the pigs and work at factories in Germany. We all know what happened to the local Jewry, with able and enthusiastic assistance from the locals.

You are aware that at the ends of WW2 it was america that stopped the Allie’s from killing Stalin- they thought it would look “bad for our image” if we attacked an “ally”. Everyone in the world was all for it; including the Germans. Russia has been, and always will be hated that much.

Again with your "everyone in the world" nonsense, are you?

You must also be aware that at the end of WW2 most of Ukraine was Hungary, Romania or Poland, right?

I feel bad, though, even arguing with someone who thinks it was called "Allie". It's like...taking candy from a baby.

Ukraine, 1941



Pretty much 1991 borders, with exception of Crimea.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

At the Minsk Agreements Putin once said: “Нравится, не нравится — терпи, моя красавица.” Надо исполнять. По-другому не получится (“Like it or not — put up with it, my beauty.” You have to follow the terms. There’s no other way”).
The Moscow Times

Tactically, this is what Putin seems to believe and what most Russians see on a day-to-day basis. Putin's thinking is that if he loses militarily in Ukraine, that he's finished politically. He believes that once he "wins" in Ukraine, that all will be forgiven and Russia will be all better. He also believes that if those loyal to him are gathered around his island, they will be his buffer to keep everyone else at bay. His chips seem to be all-in on this theory.

On one hand, Russia has switched mostly to bitcoin which helps to stabilize their economic system and offset disruptions, but the question is still where income will come from or is the Russian Government just printing as many Rubles as it needs on any given day (leading to hyperinflation-based collapse of the Ruble and Russian economy). Generally there are two primary methods to maintain the Russian Rouble; by maintaining mostly internal circulation (ex. the Stalinist State system) or externally (via imports / exports) or some combination of the two. As an exporter, Russian economic expenditures are offset selling oil to obtain income from other countries. As an importer, Russian imports are still heavily dependent upon (Black Sea) shipping and rail. If Ukraine can conduct military action against these two transportation methods (quite possible), Russia's already rising inflation could go much further.

But how will the Russian rouble fare internally? Can Russia produce most of the goods it needs to sustain the civilian economy and the war?

"The age for men with the highest ranks in the reserves can be called up "remains" at 70. For other senior ranks it has risen to up to 65, while for junior officers, it is now up until the age of 60. Meanwhile, general reservists can be brought back into service until the age of 55, 10 years older than previously."
"At the other end of the scale, head of the State Duma Committee on Defense, Andrei Kartapolov, said that the lower limit of the military age of 18 for Russian men will remain the same, reversing a proposal by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to increase it to 21."
"Legislation amendments due to come into force by October 2023 will increase the fines for those who do not heed a call up without a valid reason to up to 50,000 rubles (about $550) more than 16 times the current fine of 3,000 rubles ($33"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-raises-elderly-army-serviceman-70-deemed-eligible-russia-ukraine-1814670

Within a year, the impact of this decision upon internal productivity should become apparent to outside observers. If you look at Russian population demographics, the able-bodied 30 to 50-somethings are the most economically productive workforce group. They are the ones with the most current education and experience driving the Russian economy. Russia already has consumed much of its labor pipeline in the 18 to 30 range through either military service or maintaining the security apparatus. By now tapping the age group currently running the economy, this should create a cascading domino effect on maintaining current productivity. Fewer hands means fewer products.

Militarily, although there may be 30 or 40-somethings that have military skills, I would expect the Russian military to have difficulty re-integrating older soldiers. Although they may be individually trained, their readiness and motivation will require months of adjustment. An army runs on it's stomach and pay, so will become a massive economic drain, which is fine if you have sufficient productivity; but this will become a shortening cycle of need vs strained production.

External Russian initiatives are TBD, but early indications seem the global enthusiasm for involvement in Russia is tepid, at best.

"A video shared online shows Putin awkwardly standing around for over 20 seconds as he waits to meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi during the second annual Russia-Africa summit. In the clip, Putin strolls around the room in silence with his hands behind his back and idly straightens items on a table before continuing to pace."
https://www.newsweek.com/video-putin-waiting-awkwardly-egypt-president-video-1815838
7/27/23

"Putin has grabbed hold of his respected African partner and won't let him go. The Ethiopian prime minister felt a little embarrassed,"
"the most awkward handshake ever"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-awkward-handshake-mocked-abiy-ahmed-russia-africa-summit-1815578

But I didn't address why Prigozhin's mutiny is not a 'nothingburger' from a strategic sense. The main sign that Russia has approaching a Prigozhin-inspired inflection point is this:

"Tucked away in a new law aimed at raising the draft age for Russia’s military are several mysterious amendments that are designed to create new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country. The military companies, also known as “special enterprises,” would be there to maintain public order, protect Russia’s borders, and counter sabotage efforts, according to the text of the bill."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-dystopian-plan-post-mutiny-024538791.html

Prior to Prigozhin's mutiny, this was not on the radar, so why would Putin form new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country when conscription is so difficult Russia has to draft 70-year-olds? I believe the answer is it's the proxy for Full-Mobilization as well as keeping potential troublemakers within a Russian chain-of-command, but without calling it Full-Mobilization.

Do you think Russia currently has the supplies, currency reserves, training capacity to do this? My bet is no, and the country is still on-track towards anarchy within two years.

Russia defeated Napoleon and Hitler when everybody thought that they were finished and retreating. Never underestimate Russia.
The country on-track towards anarchy is Ukraine. Have you been there? I have. The level of destruction is unimaginable. It will take 50 years to rebuild that country once the war is over.
Ukraine's counteroffensive is failing badly. Zelensky would be wise to negotiate a settlement to end the war and preserve the territories they currently have under control, but more importantly to preserve the life of ten of thousands of Ukrainian people.

Russia would have lost to Hitler if the west was not in the war. You would be speaking German now instead of your weekends in Ukraine of taking pictures of their air defenses or busy restaurants to target.

Your time will come when russia finally burns to ashes.

Let's not even talk about what would have happened to Ukraine if Hitler won. Actually we do know. Most of their young was sent to tend the pigs and work at factories in Germany. We all know what happened to the local Jewry, with able and enthusiastic assistance from the locals.

You are aware that at the ends of WW2 it was america that stopped the Allie’s from killing Stalin- they thought it would look “bad for our image” if we attacked an “ally”. Everyone in the world was all for it; including the Germans. Russia has been, and always will be hated that much.

Again with your "everyone in the world" nonsense, are you?

You must also be aware that at the end of WW2 most of Ukraine was Hungary, Romania or Poland, right?

I feel bad, though, even arguing with someone who thinks it was called "Allie". It's like...taking candy from a baby.

Ukraine, 1941



Pretty much 1991 borders, with exception of Crimea.

Sooo clever!

1939: Ukraine, meet Galicia. Galicia, you are Ukraine now. (Poland, dry your tears).

1949: Ukraine, meet Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina. You're all Ukraine now. (Romania, dry your tears)

1945: Ukraine, meet Transcarpathia. Transcarpathia, you're Ukraine now. (Hungary and Chekhoslovakia: dry your tears)

1954: Ukraine, meet Crimea. Crimea, you're Ukraine now.

[Anonymous]

Bessarabia gains should be 1940.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Putin and Prigozhin are two scorpions in a bottle now. And the long knives are out within the Russian elite (business and security). Putin has been losing slowly since February 25, 2023. Now he’s losing more quickly.

Unfortunately, he’s taking too many down with him. And I’m not hopeful that whoever comes after Putin will be better for Russia. But whoever it is will declare victory in Ukraine and leave. It’s not a uniting issue.

The dam is about to burst so to speak. Just like with Kharkiv, slow at first...then a rout. Ukraine is close to a breakthrough that's going to lead to the same in the south. And if Crimea is truly threatened, Putin is going to have a real tough time of it.

The funny thing is, Ukrainians will gladly bomb “their” Crimea into oblivion if given the chance. They want it so that they don’t care if there’s no one left standing. Reminds me of the Russians in Bakhmut and Mariupol. Which is to say that they are all the same post Soviet blood thirsty idiots. None of them is progressive and humane.

Oh dear, someone's confused. It's been Putin's artillery-happy idiots who have been leveling villages, schools, hospitals and infrastructure. Stop #bothsides-ing this when facts and reality don't support you.

It's funny how you are supporting a dictatorship like a Ukraine. A corrupt regime that didn't hesitate to bomb its own people in the donbass region. I don't like the Russians but Ukrainians are worst. Their fight is none of our business. Our tax dollars should not be used to fight that stupid war. We are invaded at the border in our own country, and instead of fighting that invasion, we are sending weapons and money to fight an invasion in a corrupt country. This has to stop.

It’s really only with Republican pps like this that I am left almost speechless. So much stupidity concentrated in such a short post.

An American wouldn't assume that Ukraine is a dictatorship. Ukraine's last election was pre-war on 31 March 2019. It's a bit silly to assume Ukraine would hold an election in the middle of an invasion, so this is Russian propaganda talking point.

The statement "a corrupt regime that didn't hesitate to bomb its own people in donbass region" are two pieces of Russian propaganda stitched together.

The corruption theme was how Russia would undermine Poroshenko's regime.

"Bomb it's own people in donbass" was also Russian propaganda intended to distract attention from Russian war crimes, especially after Russia had destroyed Bakhmut using incendiary weapons.

Third is the talking point to drive a wedge between Democrats and Republicans on the border issue.

I don't think this is a Republican, or even an American. It's a poser. This one is better than some of the others, who probably were benched.

Russia doesn’t run the corruption perception index. Ukraine is ranked at the bottom of the list as one of the most corrupt countries on the planet. This is what you call a democracy?
You must be paid by the Ukrainian government.

Ukraine is not at the bottom, there are 59 countries ranked as even worse and more corrupt than Ukraine, including... RUSSIA.

https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2022

Womp, womp.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

At the Minsk Agreements Putin once said: “Нравится, не нравится — терпи, моя красавица.” Надо исполнять. По-другому не получится (“Like it or not — put up with it, my beauty.” You have to follow the terms. There’s no other way”).
The Moscow Times

Tactically, this is what Putin seems to believe and what most Russians see on a day-to-day basis. Putin's thinking is that if he loses militarily in Ukraine, that he's finished politically. He believes that once he "wins" in Ukraine, that all will be forgiven and Russia will be all better. He also believes that if those loyal to him are gathered around his island, they will be his buffer to keep everyone else at bay. His chips seem to be all-in on this theory.

On one hand, Russia has switched mostly to bitcoin which helps to stabilize their economic system and offset disruptions, but the question is still where income will come from or is the Russian Government just printing as many Rubles as it needs on any given day (leading to hyperinflation-based collapse of the Ruble and Russian economy). Generally there are two primary methods to maintain the Russian Rouble; by maintaining mostly internal circulation (ex. the Stalinist State system) or externally (via imports / exports) or some combination of the two. As an exporter, Russian economic expenditures are offset selling oil to obtain income from other countries. As an importer, Russian imports are still heavily dependent upon (Black Sea) shipping and rail. If Ukraine can conduct military action against these two transportation methods (quite possible), Russia's already rising inflation could go much further.

But how will the Russian rouble fare internally? Can Russia produce most of the goods it needs to sustain the civilian economy and the war?

"The age for men with the highest ranks in the reserves can be called up "remains" at 70. For other senior ranks it has risen to up to 65, while for junior officers, it is now up until the age of 60. Meanwhile, general reservists can be brought back into service until the age of 55, 10 years older than previously."
"At the other end of the scale, head of the State Duma Committee on Defense, Andrei Kartapolov, said that the lower limit of the military age of 18 for Russian men will remain the same, reversing a proposal by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to increase it to 21."
"Legislation amendments due to come into force by October 2023 will increase the fines for those who do not heed a call up without a valid reason to up to 50,000 rubles (about $550) more than 16 times the current fine of 3,000 rubles ($33"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-raises-elderly-army-serviceman-70-deemed-eligible-russia-ukraine-1814670

Within a year, the impact of this decision upon internal productivity should become apparent to outside observers. If you look at Russian population demographics, the able-bodied 30 to 50-somethings are the most economically productive workforce group. They are the ones with the most current education and experience driving the Russian economy. Russia already has consumed much of its labor pipeline in the 18 to 30 range through either military service or maintaining the security apparatus. By now tapping the age group currently running the economy, this should create a cascading domino effect on maintaining current productivity. Fewer hands means fewer products.

Militarily, although there may be 30 or 40-somethings that have military skills, I would expect the Russian military to have difficulty re-integrating older soldiers. Although they may be individually trained, their readiness and motivation will require months of adjustment. An army runs on it's stomach and pay, so will become a massive economic drain, which is fine if you have sufficient productivity; but this will become a shortening cycle of need vs strained production.

External Russian initiatives are TBD, but early indications seem the global enthusiasm for involvement in Russia is tepid, at best.

"A video shared online shows Putin awkwardly standing around for over 20 seconds as he waits to meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi during the second annual Russia-Africa summit. In the clip, Putin strolls around the room in silence with his hands behind his back and idly straightens items on a table before continuing to pace."
https://www.newsweek.com/video-putin-waiting-awkwardly-egypt-president-video-1815838
7/27/23

"Putin has grabbed hold of his respected African partner and won't let him go. The Ethiopian prime minister felt a little embarrassed,"
"the most awkward handshake ever"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-awkward-handshake-mocked-abiy-ahmed-russia-africa-summit-1815578

But I didn't address why Prigozhin's mutiny is not a 'nothingburger' from a strategic sense. The main sign that Russia has approaching a Prigozhin-inspired inflection point is this:

"Tucked away in a new law aimed at raising the draft age for Russia’s military are several mysterious amendments that are designed to create new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country. The military companies, also known as “special enterprises,” would be there to maintain public order, protect Russia’s borders, and counter sabotage efforts, according to the text of the bill."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-dystopian-plan-post-mutiny-024538791.html

Prior to Prigozhin's mutiny, this was not on the radar, so why would Putin form new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country when conscription is so difficult Russia has to draft 70-year-olds? I believe the answer is it's the proxy for Full-Mobilization as well as keeping potential troublemakers within a Russian chain-of-command, but without calling it Full-Mobilization.

Do you think Russia currently has the supplies, currency reserves, training capacity to do this? My bet is no, and the country is still on-track towards anarchy within two years.

Russia defeated Napoleon and Hitler when everybody thought that they were finished and retreating. Never underestimate Russia.
The country on-track towards anarchy is Ukraine. Have you been there? I have. The level of destruction is unimaginable. It will take 50 years to rebuild that country once the war is over.
Ukraine's counteroffensive is failing badly. Zelensky would be wise to negotiate a settlement to end the war and preserve the territories they currently have under control, but more importantly to preserve the life of ten of thousands of Ukrainian people.

Russia would have lost to Hitler if the west was not in the war. You would be speaking German now instead of your weekends in Ukraine of taking pictures of their air defenses or busy restaurants to target.

Your time will come when russia finally burns to ashes.

Let's not even talk about what would have happened to Ukraine if Hitler won. Actually we do know. Most of their young was sent to tend the pigs and work at factories in Germany. We all know what happened to the local Jewry, with able and enthusiastic assistance from the locals.

You are aware that at the ends of WW2 it was america that stopped the Allie’s from killing Stalin- they thought it would look “bad for our image” if we attacked an “ally”. Everyone in the world was all for it; including the Germans. Russia has been, and always will be hated that much.

Again with your "everyone in the world" nonsense, are you?

You must also be aware that at the end of WW2 most of Ukraine was Hungary, Romania or Poland, right?

I feel bad, though, even arguing with someone who thinks it was called "Allie". It's like...taking candy from a baby.

Ukraine, 1941



Pretty much 1991 borders, with exception of Crimea.

Sooo clever!

1939: Ukraine, meet Galicia. Galicia, you are Ukraine now. (Poland, dry your tears).

1949: Ukraine, meet Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina. You're all Ukraine now. (Romania, dry your tears)

1945: Ukraine, meet Transcarpathia. Transcarpathia, you're Ukraine now. (Hungary and Chekhoslovakia: dry your tears)

1954: Ukraine, meet Crimea. Crimea, you're Ukraine now.

Yes, but they got it "right" in 1991. End of history and all that. Year zero for Millennials.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

You don't? Then you must have been deaf and blind. I don't have time to look up the links but practically every single member of the commentariat was beside themselves churning out stories that made it sound like Russia is tottering on the brink of collapse and Putin must be shivering the corner in a bunker somewhere.

I called my sister in Moscow on that day. I wasn't even mildly worried but I wanted to get a real scoop. She said - "dunno what the deal is and don't care. My husband is at the country house tending the veg and I stayed behind to get a manicure. " That was pretty typical of the level of excitement these news caused locally.

This doesn't surprise me. The coverage of Russia and Russian affairs here is so incredibly incompetent, I read in place of funny pages.

You're not surprised that local Russians don't get real news and/or assessments of the war? None of us are.

There are no real news here, only handwringing and wishful thinking. And her assessment turned out to be 100% spot on. Certainly more accurate than NYT that made it sound like world is about to burst into flames. Lol where’s Mark Ames when you need him.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

You don't? Then you must have been deaf and blind. I don't have time to look up the links but practically every single member of the commentariat was beside themselves churning out stories that made it sound like Russia is tottering on the brink of collapse and Putin must be shivering the corner in a bunker somewhere.

I called my sister in Moscow on that day. I wasn't even mildly worried but I wanted to get a real scoop. She said - "dunno what the deal is and don't care. My husband is at the country house tending the veg and I stayed behind to get a manicure. " That was pretty typical of the level of excitement these news caused locally.

This doesn't surprise me. The coverage of Russia and Russian affairs here is so incredibly incompetent, I read in place of funny pages.

You're not surprised that local Russians don't get real news and/or assessments of the war? None of us are.

There are no real news here, only handwringing and wishful thinking. And her assessment turned out to be 100% spot on. Certainly more accurate than NYT that made it sound like world is about to burst into flames. Lol where’s Mark Ames when you need him.

Her assessment? Her blissful ignorance is not an assessment. As a direct result of Prigozhin's play, Wagner is in Belarus (to do what is unclear), Putin is reportedly building up private armies around Russia, and Prigozhin is somehow still sharing a stage with Putin. Just because your sister didn't get her manicure interrupted, doesn't mean nothing became of it. The furthest thing from that. You've reached a the point where you're obviously just pushing the Russian narrative here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin. As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that. In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

You don't? Then you must have been deaf and blind. I don't have time to look up the links but practically every single member of the commentariat was beside themselves churning out stories that made it sound like Russia is tottering on the brink of collapse and Putin must be shivering the corner in a bunker somewhere.

I called my sister in Moscow on that day. I wasn't even mildly worried but I wanted to get a real scoop. She said - "dunno what the deal is and don't care. My husband is at the country house tending the veg and I stayed behind to get a manicure. " That was pretty typical of the level of excitement these news caused locally.

This doesn't surprise me. The coverage of Russia and Russian affairs here is so incredibly incompetent, I read in place of funny pages.

You're not surprised that local Russians don't get real news and/or assessments of the war? None of us are.

There are no real news here, only handwringing and wishful thinking. And her assessment turned out to be 100% spot on. Certainly more accurate than NYT that made it sound like world is about to burst into flames. Lol where’s Mark Ames when you need him.

Her assessment? Her blissful ignorance is not an assessment. As a direct result of Prigozhin's play, Wagner is in Belarus (to do what is unclear), Putin is reportedly building up private armies around Russia, and Prigozhin is somehow still sharing a stage with Putin. Just because your sister didn't get her manicure interrupted, doesn't mean nothing became of it. The furthest thing from that. You've reached a the point where you're obviously just pushing the Russian narrative here.

Her narrative "nothing important happened" is just as good as "something happened but I don't have the slightest idea what, so I'm going to just wring my hands and cry doomsday some more."

Nothing has burst into flames, Putin's power is unaffected, and the regime is not collapsing - despite multiple pronouncements to the contrary.

At least the nails are done.