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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1685578614517964800?s=46&t=RXug2E3wPuDEf8vlgSC9SQ

From one of the very very very few eastern bloc analysts - who within an hour of prig’s tantrum — had sussed out that it was going to be a nothing burger 
[/quote]

I don't think anyone thought that Prigozhin's mutiny would overthrow the Kremlin.  As it was happening, I personally thought he would stop at Rostov-on-Don, yet he went further than that.  In a sense, yes, Tchakarova's statements (in a tactical sense) are correct, but I think the conclusion that Prigozhin's mutiny is a 'nothingburger' is incorrect (from a strategic sense).

At the Minsk Agreements Putin once said: “Нравится, не нравится — терпи, моя красавица.” Надо исполнять. По-другому не получится (“Like it or not — put up with it, my beauty.” You have to follow the terms. There’s no other way”).
The Moscow Times

Tactically, this is what Putin seems to believe and what most Russians see on a day-to-day basis.  Putin's thinking is that if he loses militarily in Ukraine, that he's finished politically.  He believes that once he "wins" in Ukraine, that all will be forgiven and Russia will be all better.  He also believes that if those loyal to him are gathered around his island, they will be his buffer to keep everyone else at bay.  His chips seem to be all-in on this theory.

On one hand, Russia has switched mostly to bitcoin which helps to stabilize their economic system and offset disruptions, but the question is still where income will come from or is the Russian Government just printing as many Rubles as it needs on any given day (leading to hyperinflation-based collapse of the Ruble and Russian economy).  Generally there are two primary methods to maintain the Russian Rouble; by maintaining mostly internal circulation (ex. the Stalinist State system) or externally (via imports / exports) or some combination of the two. As an exporter, Russian economic expenditures are offset selling oil to obtain income from other countries.  As an importer, Russian imports are still heavily dependent upon (Black Sea) shipping and rail.  If Ukraine can conduct military action against these two transportation methods (quite possible),  Russia's already rising inflation could go much further.

But how will the Russian rouble fare internally?  Can Russia produce most of the goods it needs to sustain the civilian economy and the war?

"The age for men with the highest ranks in the reserves can be called up "remains" at 70. For other senior ranks it has risen to up to 65, while for junior officers, it is now up until the age of 60. Meanwhile, general reservists can be brought back into service until the age of 55, 10 years older than previously."
"At the other end of the scale, head of the State Duma Committee on Defense, Andrei Kartapolov, said that the lower limit of the military age of 18 for Russian men will remain the same, reversing a proposal by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to increase it to 21."
"Legislation amendments due to come into force by October 2023 will increase the fines for those who do not heed a call up without a valid reason to up to 50,000 rubles (about $550) more than 16 times the current fine of 3,000 rubles ($33"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-raises-elderly-army-serviceman-70-deemed-eligible-russia-ukraine-1814670

Within a year, the impact of this decision upon internal productivity should become apparent to outside observers.  If you look at Russian population demographics, the able-bodied 30 to 50-somethings are the most economically productive workforce group.  They are the ones with the most current education and experience driving the Russian economy.  Russia already has consumed much of its labor pipeline in the 18 to 30 range through either military service or maintaining the security apparatus.  By now tapping the age group currently running the economy, this should create a cascading domino effect on maintaining current productivity.  Fewer hands means fewer products.

Militarily, although there may be 30 or 40-somethings that have military skills, I would expect the Russian military to have difficulty re-integrating older soldiers.  Although they may be individually trained, their readiness and motivation will require months of adjustment.  An army runs on it's stomach and pay, so will become a massive economic drain, which is fine if you have sufficient productivity; but this will become a shortening cycle of need vs strained production.

External Russian initiatives are TBD, but early indications seem the global enthusiasm for involvement in Russia is tepid, at best.

"A video shared online shows Putin awkwardly standing around for over 20 seconds as he waits to meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi during the second annual Russia-Africa summit. In the clip, Putin strolls around the room in silence with his hands behind his back and idly straightens items on a table before continuing to pace."
https://www.newsweek.com/video-putin-waiting-awkwardly-egypt-president-video-1815838
7/27/23

"Putin has grabbed hold of his respected African partner and won't let him go. The Ethiopian prime minister felt a little embarrassed,"
"the most awkward handshake ever"
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-awkward-handshake-mocked-abiy-ahmed-russia-africa-summit-1815578

But I didn't address why Prigozhin's mutiny is not a 'nothingburger' from a strategic sense.  The main sign that Russia has approaching a Prigozhin-inspired inflection point is this:

"Tucked away in a new law aimed at raising the draft age for Russia’s military are several mysterious amendments that are designed to create new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country.  The military companies, also known as “special enterprises,” would be there to maintain public order, protect Russia’s borders, and counter sabotage efforts, according to the text of the bill."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-dystopian-plan-post-mutiny-024538791.html

Prior to Prigozhin's mutiny, this was not on the radar, so why would Putin form new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country when conscription is so difficult Russia has to draft 70-year-olds?  I believe the answer is it's the proxy for Full-Mobilization as well as keeping potential troublemakers within a Russian chain-of-command, but without calling it Full-Mobilization.

[b]Do you think Russia currently has the supplies, currency reserves, training capacity to do this?  My bet is no, and the country is still on-track towards anarchy within two years.[/b]
[/quote]

Russia defeated Napoleon and Hitler when everybody thought that they were finished and retreating. Never underestimate Russia.
The country on-track towards anarchy is Ukraine. Have you been there? I have. The level of destruction is unimaginable. It will take 50 years to rebuild that country once the war is over.
Ukraine's counteroffensive is failing badly. Zelensky would be wise to negotiate a settlement to end the war and preserve the territories they currently have under control, but more importantly to preserve the life of ten of thousands of Ukrainian people.

[/quote]

Russia would have lost to Hitler if the west was not in the war.  You would be speaking German now instead of your weekends in Ukraine of taking pictures of their air defenses  or busy restaurants to target.

Your time will come when russia finally burns to ashes.[/quote]

Let's not even talk about what would have happened to Ukraine if Hitler won.  Actually we do know. Most of their young was sent to tend the pigs and work at factories in Germany.  We all know what happened to the local Jewry, with able and enthusiastic assistance from the locals.[/quote]

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