Reply to A thread of optimism: why do you think Trump will win in 2020?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.[/quote]

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.[/quote]

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24[/quote]

Still lower than 2016, right?[/quote]

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.[/quote]

Give it time. They are super motivated now because they are idealistic, and they've conjured up an image of what an ideal candidate the eventual Democratic nominee will be. They believe that man/woman is going to embody all that is good and wholesome about the intentions of the left. Just wait until the actual final candidates emerge. If 2016 is any indication, the potential nominees will tear each other apart and the corrupt Democratic party machine will all but ensure that the wrong candidate gets nominated. As we head into election day with a Democratic candidate with utterly no redeeming quality other than he/she is not Trump, any residual energy that Democratic voters feel will only keep them awake long enough to seek that Trump has won, again. [/quote]

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