DC now in CDC moderate range for schools - what will this mean for reopening?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Today DC dipped below 15 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (see article below) putting it in the CDC "moderate" range where elementary schools, according to CDC, can open safely five days per week with the right precautions. Although CDC recommends six feet of distance it also says to use as much distancing as possible if six feet is not possible. For Middle Schools and High Schools hybrid is recommended. Does anyone think that this advice could change the perspective for Term 4 or for the fall? Does anyone know when/if OSSE will update it's guidance?

https://dcist.com/story/21/02/22/dc-md-va-regional-covid-update-cases-falling/

Thank you!

It will not change anything for term 4. The fall, I assume so.

Do you mean that decisions have been made for term 4 already? Or do you mean "no change" in the sense that term 4 will look like the current status quo?

NP. But what you see at your school (minus Hearst) is what you are getting.

Angry Hearst parent here appreciating your qualifier! Parents are uniting. more than 70 have signed onto a letter to the principal recapping the nonsense our kids are dealing with and offering options for Term 4. But in the end, we know it won't matter. Four half days is all we'll get. She won't even give us learning on Wednesdays like other schools have managed.

Different Hearst parent here -- I've seen the letter to the principal, but I've seen zero communication from Hearst on term 4 plans, which is why I asked if folks were seeing term 4 plans already.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My family members in the Chicago suburbs are incredulous that kids in DC area are still out. They started back a month after Labor Day and kids have been in school.

And coronavirus is way worse in Chicago than it is DC.

The difference is Chicago has a mayor who actually made school reopening a priority.

Huh? You are just spouting stuff you don’t know about. Chicago hasn’t been in school since Labor Day. This person is talking about the suburbs. Get some reading comprehension

Yeah and I highly doubt your family in the suburbs is incredulous; Chicago has been a total shitshow worse than DC trying to reopen, and a lot of suburbs are still closed too.

SF, Chicago, and DC are the worst it seems. It’s just awful. Everyone else is returning to IPL. And our numbers in DC have among the best in country and strong mask compliance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My family members in the Chicago suburbs are incredulous that kids in DC area are still out. They started back a month after Labor Day and kids have been in school.

And coronavirus is way worse in Chicago than it is DC.

The difference is Chicago has a mayor who actually made school reopening a priority.

Is there anywhere else in the country at this point where children have not gone back to school in at least some capacity in person if their parents opted for in person outside of this area? Even my nieces and nephews in LA County have gone back in person some days a week. My family in CT has been full time in person for K-8 since October and was hybrid before that point.

What we are experiencing in DC is so far outside the norm at this point it’s unbelievable.

My friends in NYC have all been sending their elementary and middle school-age children to public school 3 days a week since January. My cousins in Boston have been sending them for hybrid since Sept. A sibling in Miami has sent hers 5 days a week since winter break. Most of my DCPS friends have no access to in-person learning, although they've requested it. The DC Metro area is indeed far behind the curve as a whole.

[Anonymous]

Could someone explain how we are in the "moderate" range?

The CDC indicators are, for "Total new cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days"

Low - 0-9
Moderate - 10-49
Substantial - 50-99
High - 100+

When I look at the CDC's data tracker, we are at 768 cases total over the last 7 days, or 108.82 per 100k. That puts us in the "high" range, not the moderate range.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Could someone explain how we are in the "moderate" range?

The CDC indicators are, for "Total new cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days"

Low - 0-9
Moderate - 10-49
Substantial - 50-99
High - 100+

When I look at the CDC's data tracker, we are at 768 cases total over the last 7 days, or 108.82 per 100k. That puts us in the "high" range, not the moderate range.

I think we are getting mixed up between DC's version of "moderate" spread (which is rolling average of 15/100,000 per day over 7 days) and the CDC's version of "substantial" or "orange" which is 50-99 cases total over 7 days per 100,000. If your numbers are correct, we are getting close to "substantial" but aren't there yet.

At "substantial" (orange) the only different CDC guidelines are that that MS and HS should be hybrid, and outdoor sports are sort of allowed.

I imagine that with rates plummeting as quickly as they are, that we will get to substantial within a week, and will get to moderate by summer (particularly with vaccine rollout).

The question is still whether OSSE will change it's guidelines according to CDC, or if they will just continue to do whatever.

[Anonymous]

Like if we get to DC's metric of 7/100,000 average daily cases, that puts us in CDC's "yellow" zone, which says that ES should be open full-time in person.

We dropped from 30 to 15 between Feb. 1 and Feb. 21, so it's not that hard to fathom we will get to 7-ish/100,000 (yellow) by the end of March (vaccine roll-out dependent).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My family members in the Chicago suburbs are incredulous that kids in DC area are still out. They started back a month after Labor Day and kids have been in school.

And coronavirus is way worse in Chicago than it is DC.

The difference is Chicago has a mayor who actually made school reopening a priority.

Is there anywhere else in the country at this point where children have not gone back to school in at least some capacity in person if their parents opted for in person outside of this area? Even my nieces and nephews in LA County have gone back in person some days a week. My family in CT has been full time in person for K-8 since October and was hybrid before that point.

What we are experiencing in DC is so far outside the norm at this point it’s unbelievable.

My relatives in the Bay Area California have not been back at all, even the lower grades.

[Anonymous]

It's fun that we were kind of in the CDC's "yellow" zone for a good portion of July-October, 2020. And that was without vaccines.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Could someone explain how we are in the "moderate" range?

The CDC indicators are, for "Total new cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days"

Low - 0-9
Moderate - 10-49
Substantial - 50-99
High - 100+

When I look at the CDC's data tracker, we are at 768 cases total over the last 7 days, or 108.82 per 100k. That puts us in the "high" range, not the moderate range.

I think we are getting mixed up between DC's version of "moderate" spread (which is rolling average of 15/100,000 per day over 7 days) and the CDC's version of "substantial" or "orange" which is 50-99 cases total over 7 days per 100,000. If your numbers are correct, we are getting close to "substantial" but aren't there yet.

At "substantial" (orange) the only different CDC guidelines are that that MS and HS should be hybrid, and outdoor sports are sort of allowed.

I imagine that with rates plummeting as quickly as they are, that we will get to substantial within a week, and will get to moderate by summer (particularly with vaccine rollout).

The question is still whether OSSE will change it's guidelines according to CDC, or if they will just continue to do whatever.

Yes, the original OP made a common mistake. CDC school reopening guidelines use total cases over the last 7 days (per 100,000), which is a common metric in europe also. You need to divide those numbers by 7 if you want to compare to 7-day rolling averages. We have a ways to get to CDC moderate, which is at 7 cases per day per 100,000. Many are complaining that the CDC guidelines are too conservative...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Could someone explain how we are in the "moderate" range?

The CDC indicators are, for "Total new cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days"

Low - 0-9
Moderate - 10-49
Substantial - 50-99
High - 100+

When I look at the CDC's data tracker, we are at 768 cases total over the last 7 days, or 108.82 per 100k. That puts us in the "high" range, not the moderate range.

I think we are getting mixed up between DC's version of "moderate" spread (which is rolling average of 15/100,000 per day over 7 days) and the CDC's version of "substantial" or "orange" which is 50-99 cases total over 7 days per 100,000. If your numbers are correct, we are getting close to "substantial" but aren't there yet.

At "substantial" (orange) the only different CDC guidelines are that that MS and HS should be hybrid, and outdoor sports are sort of allowed.

I imagine that with rates plummeting as quickly as they are, that we will get to substantial within a week, and will get to moderate by summer (particularly with vaccine rollout).

The question is still whether OSSE will change it's guidelines according to CDC, or if they will just continue to do whatever.

Yes, the original OP made a common mistake. CDC school reopening guidelines use total cases over the last 7 days (per 100,000), which is a common metric in europe also. You need to divide those numbers by 7 if you want to compare to 7-day rolling averages. We have a ways to get to CDC moderate, which is at 7 cases per day per 100,000. Many are complaining that the CDC guidelines are too conservative...

I don't think we are that far from "yellow" and it would make sense for OSSE to start talking about changing their requirements to at least be in line with the (potentially conservative) CDC guidelines. It at least appears that we'd be at yellow by Fall, 2021.

I know a lot of people are very worried that OSSE will just keep its head in the sand, though, and we'll continue to have a small portion of kids in hybrid through 2022.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Could someone explain how we are in the "moderate" range?

The CDC indicators are, for "Total new cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days"

Low - 0-9
Moderate - 10-49
Substantial - 50-99
High - 100+

When I look at the CDC's data tracker, we are at 768 cases total over the last 7 days, or 108.82 per 100k. That puts us in the "high" range, not the moderate range.

I think we are getting mixed up between DC's version of "moderate" spread (which is rolling average of 15/100,000 per day over 7 days) and the CDC's version of "substantial" or "orange" which is 50-99 cases total over 7 days per 100,000. If your numbers are correct, we are getting close to "substantial" but aren't there yet.

At "substantial" (orange) the only different CDC guidelines are that that MS and HS should be hybrid, and outdoor sports are sort of allowed.

I imagine that with rates plummeting as quickly as they are, that we will get to substantial within a week, and will get to moderate by summer (particularly with vaccine rollout).

The question is still whether OSSE will change it's guidelines according to CDC, or if they will just continue to do whatever.

Yes, the original OP made a common mistake. CDC school reopening guidelines use total cases over the last 7 days (per 100,000), which is a common metric in europe also. You need to divide those numbers by 7 if you want to compare to 7-day rolling averages. We have a ways to get to CDC moderate, which is at 7 cases per day per 100,000. Many are complaining that the CDC guidelines are too conservative...

I don't think we are that far from "yellow" and it would make sense for OSSE to start talking about changing their requirements to at least be in line with the (potentially conservative) CDC guidelines. It at least appears that we'd be at yellow by Fall, 2021.

I know a lot of people are very worried that OSSE will just keep its head in the sand, though, and we'll continue to have a small portion of kids in hybrid through 2022.

They don't need to START talking about making their requirements in line with CDC requirements. Schools have been closed for a year, they need to get their act together and open the damn schools. They have been TALKING about it all year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My family members in the Chicago suburbs are incredulous that kids in DC area are still out. They started back a month after Labor Day and kids have been in school.

And coronavirus is way worse in Chicago than it is DC.

The difference is Chicago has a mayor who actually made school reopening a priority.

Is there anywhere else in the country at this point where children have not gone back to school in at least some capacity in person if their parents opted for in person outside of this area? Even my nieces and nephews in LA County have gone back in person some days a week. My family in CT has been full time in person for K-8 since October and was hybrid before that point.

What we are experiencing in DC is so far outside the norm at this point it’s unbelievable.

I think because we all live here, we dont realize how strange DC is when it comes to schools. We are extremely far behind the rest of the country in reopening schools. Thanks, WTU!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Could someone explain how we are in the "moderate" range?

The CDC indicators are, for "Total new cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days"

Low - 0-9
Moderate - 10-49
Substantial - 50-99
High - 100+

When I look at the CDC's data tracker, we are at 768 cases total over the last 7 days, or 108.82 per 100k. That puts us in the "high" range, not the moderate range.

That's a good point but the dcist article quoted says dc is in the moderate range for the cdc. Possibly that is an error or perhaps that is because the test positivity rate puts dc in a very low category.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Could someone explain how we are in the "moderate" range?

The CDC indicators are, for "Total new cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days"

Low - 0-9
Moderate - 10-49
Substantial - 50-99
High - 100+

When I look at the CDC's data tracker, we are at 768 cases total over the last 7 days, or 108.82 per 100k. That puts us in the "high" range, not the moderate range.

That's a good point but the dcist article quoted says dc is in the moderate range for the cdc. Possibly that is an error or perhaps that is because the test positivity rate puts dc in a very low category.

The DCist article never mentions the CDC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Could someone explain how we are in the "moderate" range?

The CDC indicators are, for "Total new cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days"

Low - 0-9
Moderate - 10-49
Substantial - 50-99
High - 100+

When I look at the CDC's data tracker, we are at 768 cases total over the last 7 days, or 108.82 per 100k. That puts us in the "high" range, not the moderate range.

That's a good point but the dcist article quoted says dc is in the moderate range for the cdc. Possibly that is an error or perhaps that is because the test positivity rate puts dc in a very low category.

Is it? I'm not getting that math?