Reply to DC now in CDC moderate range for schools - what will this mean for reopening?

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Reply to "DC now in CDC moderate range for schools - what will this mean for reopening?"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Could someone explain how we are in the "moderate" range?

The CDC indicators are, for "Total new cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days"
[list]Low - 0-9
Moderate - 10-49
Substantial - 50-99
High - 100+[/list]

When I look at the CDC's data tracker, we are at 768 cases total over the last 7 days, or 108.82 per 100k. That puts us in the "high" range, not the moderate range.
[/quote]

I think we are getting mixed up between DC's version of "moderate" spread (which is rolling average of 15/100,000 per day over 7 days) and the CDC's version of "substantial" or "orange" which is 50-99 cases total over 7 days per 100,000.  If your numbers are correct, we are getting close to "substantial" but aren't there yet.

At "substantial" (orange) the only different CDC guidelines are that that MS and HS should be hybrid, and outdoor sports are sort of allowed.

I imagine that with rates plummeting as quickly as they are, that we will get to substantial within a week, and will get to moderate by summer (particularly with vaccine rollout).

The question is still whether OSSE will change it's guidelines according to CDC, or if they will just continue to do whatever.[/quote]

Yes, the original OP made a common mistake. CDC school reopening guidelines use total cases over the last 7 days (per 100,000), which is a common metric in europe also. You need to divide those numbers by 7 if you want to compare to 7-day rolling averages. We have a ways to get to CDC moderate, which is at 7 cases per day per 100,000. Many are complaining that the CDC guidelines are too conservative...[/quote]

I don't think we are that far from "yellow" and it would make sense for OSSE to start talking about changing their requirements to at least be in line with the (potentially conservative) CDC guidelines.  It at least appears that we'd be at yellow by Fall, 2021.

I know a lot of people are very worried that OSSE will just keep its head in the sand, though, and we'll continue to have a small portion of kids in hybrid through 2022.[/quote]

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