Hypothesis: Peak UVA

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP here. For the record, I'm neither a UVA hater nor a MD booster. I'm a Virginian whose class of 2018 dd had the stats to attend both UVA and William and Mary. I was open to both schools, but I admit I did suggest to her that W&M was a better choice for the undergraduate student of the humanities and pure sciences, if only because of it's human scale and the close contact with the faculty that that provides. She chose W&M. If she had chosen UVA, I would have been fine with that since her probable major is an unusual one with a small, excellent department at UVA. Just guiding her through the process was fascinating, tho stressful. I learned a lot and hence this thread.

It is possible, certainly, that an avalanche of international students will enable UVA to continue to march ahead. I'm skeptical, however. The number of international students in the US has fallen with the advent of the Trump administration. Further, why wouldn't the political pressures as you cite in CA also be applicable in VA if UVA were to try to drastically increase it's number of full pay international students?

The point of the bell curve is that there are only so many students of exceptional ability. These students drive selectivity. There is more competition for them than ever before, both among publics and privates. If UVA manages to increase it's instate apps, it will not be among those highly talented students. They already go to UVA at what I think will be seen to be a maximum rate. Anecdotally, I personally know two students who graduated from FCPS recently with stats at the higher end of the UVA range. One went to BC, another to Tulane, both with significant merit aid. This is the new reality I'm talking about -- it affects even in state students.

People seem to think that there is an endless supply out there somewhere (China) of brilliant kids who will push American schools to greater and greater glory. I just don't think that's true and I don't see it happening.

There are. And their parents are willing to pay $100K for counselors to get them into flagships and the Ivies - or even to send them to "fifth year" boarding schools to obtain the skills of the admissions office in getting into an American University. We haven't even begun to tap the overseas market.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm not sure that they are going to UVA at a maximum rate. How many VA resident kids attend Duke, Emory, Davidson, Vanderbilt, UNC, etc. Privates in the 10-40 range. Many of them have ACT 34+ and are in the donut hole. There is very limited merit aid at this schools. In the future their options are scaling down to the privates ranked 50+ looking for merit, or instate. This is not an argument against W&M, it would help both. As well as UMD and other highly regarded state flagships.

And many VA residents simply cannot afford the $65K ++ a year that these schools cost. Especially if they have more than one child and also if any of their children plan on grad school.

Yep. I think the trend is starting where kids are kept closer to home for undergraduate.

[Anonymous]

So is your DD graduating this year (you said class of 2018). Congrats, if so! A lot has changed just in the last four years. I doubt that my DC in second year at UVA would have made it in for the class of 2022. I read the EA results and the RD results on college confidential. A lot has changed nationwide in the last four years. Almost all colleges are citing record applications (no surprise there). The no. of international applications are up. Parents are concerned. There are plenty of UVA students with superlative records who could get into UVA. You keep citing the SAT scores and saying there are only 50K students in the USA who score that high but y ou are overlooking all the ACT students. My DC had a 34 and a 35 on retake. I thought that was amazing at the time. But if you check College Confidential you will see 34s rejected outright. UVA doesn't practice yield protection - it's simply that the students applying are that good. One of the reasons selectivity is "high" at 26.7% is because high school counselors show students the Naviance charts for their high school so many - like my other two children - didn't even try for UVA or W&M because they knew there were 60 kids in their own high school with superior stats ready to march into UVA. It made no sense to apply. I don't see population dropping, or GPAs and test scores dropping but even if they did, the GPA would drop to a 4.40 (Schev has it at 4.47 for top 25% of enrolled students at UVA last fall) and a 32-33 ACT, which are still fantastic scores. AS to why Virginians won't follow California - there's 100 different answers to that running from politics to geographical preferences to the VA General Assembly to what UVA's Board of Visitors wants. Just because California shifts in response to voter pressure does not mean UVA will follow suit. I'm not even sure that would be a good thing to increase the number of Virginia seats. I just disagree with you that things are "topping off" and that this bubble will burst. Just for this class at UVA one of the Deans posted that there are 10,000 on the waitlist. Yes, 10,000 for a class already selected of 6,000. And total applications were 37,000+. This isn't going to stop.

2.09 million kids took the ACT in 2017, 1.64 million took the SAT. A 34 on the ACT is the 99th percentile, so about 20K kids had an equivalent score or above. A 1480 is the 99th percentile on the SAT, so about 16,000 scored at or above. Some unknown number of kids will have taken both tests. 36K approximately total in the 99th percentile on both tests. If you add the 98th percentile, you will get to 72K, but again many, I don't know how many, will have taken both tests. It is routine today to take both, especially for high achievers. These are the kids that all schools are competing today more fiercely for than ever before and they are the ones who drive selectivity. My hypothesis states that UVA in the future will not be able to attract an increasing number of these kids.

Do you really believe that, as I said, in 10 years 20 AP's will be the new normal? That you will need a 5.8 GPA to get into UVA? Is there no upward limit on intelligence or the number of hours in the day?

Doesn't the fact that UVA netted only 423 more apps this year than last suggest something to you?

I never said UVA was anything but a good school. I'm making a prediction about the future and noting the changed landscape of American higher ed, which I continue to believe will not be "saved" by foreign students.

[Anonymous]

I see a world where private universities and public universities that are allowed to do it will bring their international enrollment to about 30%+ within a decade or two at the expense of upper middle class and middle class domestic students. There is way too much money and demand for American education in the international markets for this not to happen. China, India and South Korea will drive this growth.

American education will become like American companies. American in name only.

[Anonymous]

I see a world where private universities and public universities that are allowed to do it will bring their international enrollment to about 30%+ within a decade or two at the expense of upper middle class and middle class domestic students. There is way too much money and demand for American education in the international markets for this not to happen. China, India and South Korea will drive this growth.

American education will become like American companies. American in name only.

That's certainly a very depressing possibility, tho unlikely in my view.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I see a world where private universities and public universities that are allowed to do it will bring their international enrollment to about 30%+ within a decade or two at the expense of upper middle class and middle class domestic students. There is way too much money and demand for American education in the international markets for this not to happen. China, India and South Korea will drive this growth.

American education will become like American companies. American in name only.

I believe that is almost the case at UCLA and Berkeley which is why the residents got upset and the REgents and then State had to limit the no. of OOS/International seats to 20%. Berkeley and UCLA are very "hot" with the Chinese students. THe other internationals focus one a wider range of schools in the U.S.

[Anonymous]

UCLA is already at 12% undergraduate internationals but higher in the grad schools. The new rule will choke back on that (or the OSS kids will be outed) so those international students will look elsewhere.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

So is your DD graduating this year (you said class of 2018). Congrats, if so! A lot has changed just in the last four years. I doubt that my DC in second year at UVA would have made it in for the class of 2022. I read the EA results and the RD results on college confidential. A lot has changed nationwide in the last four years. Almost all colleges are citing record applications (no surprise there). The no. of international applications are up. Parents are concerned. There are plenty of UVA students with superlative records who could get into UVA. You keep citing the SAT scores and saying there are only 50K students in the USA who score that high but y ou are overlooking all the ACT students. My DC had a 34 and a 35 on retake. I thought that was amazing at the time. But if you check College Confidential you will see 34s rejected outright. UVA doesn't practice yield protection - it's simply that the students applying are that good. One of the reasons selectivity is "high" at 26.7% is because high school counselors show students the Naviance charts for their high school so many - like my other two children - didn't even try for UVA or W&M because they knew there were 60 kids in their own high school with superior stats ready to march into UVA. It made no sense to apply. I don't see population dropping, or GPAs and test scores dropping but even if they did, the GPA would drop to a 4.40 (Schev has it at 4.47 for top 25% of enrolled students at UVA last fall) and a 32-33 ACT, which are still fantastic scores. AS to why Virginians won't follow California - there's 100 different answers to that running from politics to geographical preferences to the VA General Assembly to what UVA's Board of Visitors wants. Just because California shifts in response to voter pressure does not mean UVA will follow suit. I'm not even sure that would be a good thing to increase the number of Virginia seats. I just disagree with you that things are "topping off" and that this bubble will burst. Just for this class at UVA one of the Deans posted that there are 10,000 on the waitlist. Yes, 10,000 for a class already selected of 6,000. And total applications were 37,000+. This isn't going to stop.

2.09 million kids took the ACT in 2017, 1.64 million took the SAT. A 34 on the ACT is the 99th percentile, so about 20K kids had an equivalent score or above. A 1480 is the 99th percentile on the SAT, so about 16,000 scored at or above. Some unknown number of kids will have taken both tests. 36K approximately total in the 99th percentile on both tests. If you add the 98th percentile, you will get to 72K, but again many, I don't know how many, will have taken both tests. It is routine today to take both, especially for high achievers. These are the kids that all schools are competing today more fiercely for than ever before and they are the ones who drive selectivity. My hypothesis states that UVA in the future will not be able to attract an increasing number of these kids.

Do you really believe that, as I said, in 10 years 20 AP's will be the new normal? That you will need a 5.8 GPA to get into UVA? Is there no upward limit on intelligence or the number of hours in the day?

You really don't know what you are talking about. It's already possible to have a GPA well beyond a 5.8. My DC's classmate at UVA entered with a 6.5 and 64 college-level classes finished with As. He can graduate in 3 years if he chooses. He's considering a dual business degree that will get him a UVA undergrad degree in 3 years and a business master's in 2, so all done in five years, not six.

Doesn't the fact that UVA netted only 423 more apps this year than last suggest something to you?

No, because the EA apps jumped in fall of 2017 by 5%. And the total apps three years before by 26%. https://news.virginia.edu/content/uva-sees-record-number-early-action-applications. What you are seeing is simply a shift of applications from RD to EA, and that is true across the nation. https://news.virginia.edu/content/uva-sees-record-number-early-action-applications. And two years ago, UVA was at 32,426. This year is total applications was 37,000. The selectivity figure is dropping every year. The applications numbers to UVA is not indicative of market desires because many students self-select not to attend once they see their high school's Naviance charts and the SCHEV reports for entering fall students. Counselors, who do write written recommendations, also play a role in routing Virignia in-state students to the other 14 Virginian universities. If a sufficient number of high school students are scared off by high scores and high GPAs, they aren't going to apply to UVA but that doesn't mean they don't want to go. It means that the 50 allocated slots ahead of them in their particular high school are already taken by the top ten percent of their class and that their high school counselor has shown them that it's highly unlikely they will get in and to focus on other great universities in Virginia. This is less true with the OSS applications, which continue to rise every year.

I never said UVA was anything but a good school. I'm making a prediction about the future and noting the changed landscape of American higher ed, which I continue to believe will not be "saved" by foreign students.

But you failed to note that after UVA accepted the 6,000 students for the class of 2022, it has currently 10,000 perfectly acceptable students with the same scores on the waitlist. Some of those will make it into the class of 2020, as the TJ students who used UVA for an Ivy drift off by May 1. The rest will not, but every single one of those 10,000 students are UVA quality. As private colleges continue to hike their rates every year (in large part to cover the marketing costs to get as many students as possible to apply just so they can be rejected to lower selectivity numbers), more and more in-state parents will say "We just can't afford $100K a year to send junior to X for college" and will turn to all the California, Virginia, Texas and Michigan state schools. They are the smart ones because they can then save to pay $100K a year for Harvard Law School when jr. moves from undergrad. to grad.

You have not pointed to anything that might end this madness. I'm not saying the system is healthy. It is not. But there's nothing in your analysis to point to an end in demand for top flagships with reasonable fees for in-state students.

[Anonymous]

You really don't know what you are talking about. It's already possible to have a GPA well beyond a 5.8. My DC's classmate at UVA entered with a 6.5 and 64 college-level classes finished with As. He can graduate in 3 years if he chooses. He's considering a dual business degree that will get him a UVA undergrad degree in 3 years and a business master's in 2, so all done in five years, not six.

Hey let's keep this civil. I'm just an interested dad whose dd will graduate from high school this year BTW, so I know the current situation.

So it sounds like you're suggesting that to be competitive at UVA in the future, you will need to have essentially skipped three years of high school and proceeded to college at he age of 14? 15?, and completed 64 hours of college level classes with straight A's. 64 credit hours represents more than 2 years of full time college level work. Is that what you're saying? Are you aware that only about 1 to 2 percent of high school students currently take 8 or more AP classes? That number has held very steady over the decades.

I'd love it if you would address the demographic and bell curve arguments I'm making. Also, you seem to be viewing UVA in isolation. My point is that UVA now has more competition than ever before, both public and private. It only remains a good deal for in state high achievers and there are a limited number of those. OOS costs are huge. Many, many OOS state kids will find better bargains at their in state flagships or in privates with generous financial aid.

As to the front loading of apps in EA, I believe that is a function of the hyper competitive environment we're in. Highly organized, bright students will do this de rigeuer now as my dd did. Front loading does not signify an overall increase. Yes, I know that UVA apps have increased markedly over recent years. That's my whole point. This year that increase essentially stopped. Thus, I'm arguing that for this and the other reasons I cite, we've reached peak UVA.

[Anonymous]

Are you aware that only about 1 to 2 percent of high school students currently take 8 or more AP classes? That number has held very steady over the decades.

Oh and another significant fact here I forgot to mention. Only about 2K kids in the class of 2018 in the entire state of Virginia received an AP Scholar with Honor award after completing their exams last year. Another 2K received AP Scholar with Distinction. The College Board publishes this data, you can look it up. Therefore a limited population. It's helpful to have a grip on actual numbers. How many of these kids will wind up at UVA, W&M or Duke or an IVY? Or Alabama with a huge discount?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Are you aware that only about 1 to 2 percent of high school students currently take 8 or more AP classes? That number has held very steady over the decades.

Oh and another significant fact here I forgot to mention. Only about 2K kids in the class of 2018 in the [b]entire state of Virginia received an AP Scholar with Honor award after completing their exams last year. Another 2K received AP Scholar with Distinction. The College Board publishes this data, you can look it up. Therefore a limited population. It's helpful to have a grip on actual numbers. How many of these kids will wind up at UVA, W&M or Duke or an IVY? Or Alabama with a huge discount?

[/b]


I don't understand how what point you're making. I've never even heard of AP Scholar with Distinction.

[Anonymous]

There are levels of AP scholarship. The top-ish one being National AP Scholar - at least a 4 average on 8 or more exams...

https://apcentral.collegeboard.org/score-reports-data/awards/scholar-awards

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Are you aware that only about 1 to 2 percent of high school students currently take 8 or more AP classes? That number has held very steady over the decades.

Oh and another significant fact here I forgot to mention. Only about 2K kids in the class of 2018 in the [b]entire state of Virginia received an AP Scholar with Honor award after completing their exams last year. Another 2K received AP Scholar with Distinction. The College Board publishes this data, you can look it up. Therefore a limited population. It's helpful to have a grip on actual numbers. How many of these kids will wind up at UVA, W&M or Duke or an IVY? Or Alabama with a huge discount?

[/b]


I don't understand how what point you're making. I've never even heard of AP Scholar with Distinction.

Ap Scholar with Distinction = scored a 3 or higher on 5 or more AP exams
AP Scholar with Honor = scored a 3 or higher on 4 or more AP exams

[Anonymous]

I’m sorry your rejection still stings. And no, UVA is nowhere near it’s peak. In state AmazonHQ2 Kids and Nestle HQ kids will see to that. Survival of the fittest. Marginal applicants will be devoured.

[Anonymous]

It's amazing that applications actually increased after the white supremacists went to Charlottesville.